Mathematical formula for player value movements

[footylover18]

Anyone have any idea how much D.Harris will go up just next week?

 

[SnIcKeRs #3]

im thinking of getting rid of lloyd for a cheaper forward and then with left over cash upgrade waters to cornes but need to know how much cornes will drop if he does and how much will waters rise

 

[Blinger]

im thinking of getting rid of lloyd for a cheaper forward and then with left over cash upgrade waters to cornes but need to know how much cornes will drop if he does and how much will waters rise

I would estimate C.Cornes will be 391,600, Waters118,800.

 

[Benno_900]

I would estimate C.Cornes will be 391,600, Waters118,800.

Surely be more than that. Will be around $140,000 - $150,000 in my opinion.

 

[Blinger]

Anyone have any idea how much D.Harris will go up just next week?

Would estimate his price to be 271,100.

 

[The_New_Recruit]

Would estimate his price to be 271,100.

No one wil be able to work out formula from this weeks increases and decreases. By the end of R6, there will be a fairly accurate formula available.

 

[catempire]

No one wil be able to work out formula from this weeks increases and decreases. By the end of R6, there will be a fairly accurate formula available.

Why wouldn't we be able to work it out after this round?

Seems to me it will be quite obvious after this round.

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

Is there a chance I am taking this game too seriously?

I think most footy supporters do.

 

[tragicforces]

No one wil be able to work out formula from this weeks increases and decreases. By the end of R6, there will be a fairly accurate formula available.

No, Blingers formula is pretty much spot on....

 

[Effes]

What will J Longmuir drop to?

 

[tragicforces]

What will J Longmuir drop to?

will drop 9k

 

[Effes]

cheers.............what will cox's price be?

 

[bones25]

I will have a stab at some major changes in prices.

Biggest moves in order:
Swan
Jones Rowan
McManus
Fraser
Johnson Michael
Skipper
Bowden P
Cox
Watson
Heffernan
Lade
Bruce
Monfries
Lonie

Biggest dives:

Brown richmond
Everitt
Johnson Jason
Akermanis
Richardson

 

[ExMrBlonde]

I remember having these same discussions this time last year.. still, by the end of the year no-one had worked it out..
I can't see it being any different this year..


At the start of 2004, the total player value was $97,840,300. At the end of 2004, it was $97,853,900

At the start of 2005, the total player value was $106,358,900. At the end of round 3 (I lost all my data after round 3), it was $106,359,000.

Going at this rate, whatever the $ increases are, will be matched by the $ decreases... Hence anyone that thinks they have THE formula will first need to calculate EVERY players score, then apply whatever factor is generated...

I don't believe anyone has the formula, and I doubt it very much that anyone will have it by the end of this year... but I'm trying !!!

 

[ExMrBlonde]

Another thing, here's some info from round 3 last year....

		          	2004	2005									
		          	Average	Value		R1	R2	R3	Total	Average	Deviation	R3 Value	 +/- 
Andrew WELSH                  	64.5	$236,800.00	102	118	98	318	106	41.5	 $269,200.00 	 $32,400.00 			
Adam COONEY                  	47.16	$173,100.00	98	92	75	265	88.33	41.17	 $206,600.00 	 $33,500.00 			
Kepler BRADLEY               	42.2	$154,900.00	98	90	92	280	93.33	51.13	 $197,600.00 	 $42,700.00 			
													
Nigel LAPPIN             	100.32	 $368,200.00 	42	56	46	144	48	-52.32	 $313,600.00 	-$54,600.00 			
Adam SIMPSON               	95.23	 $349,600.00 	52	73	66	191	63.66	-31.57	 $314,000.00 	-$35,600.00 			
Richard VANDENBERG         	70.63	 $259,200.00 	27	41	52	120	40	-30.63	 $226,300.00 	-$32,900.00

 

[Effes]

Good stuff EMB

 

[Effes]

Cox up $36000
Swan up $45000
Hodge down $1000

 

[Blinger]

Cox up $36000
Swan up $45000
Hodge down $1000

How do you work out Hodge will go down, when his average this season is above last seasons average.

 

[Effes]

Your average needs to have increased by at least 5.8 for your price to go up, otherwise you'll drop.

Depends on whether they've changed the formula though

 

[macca69]

Your average needs to have increased by at least 5.8 for your price to go up, otherwise you'll drop.

Depends on whether they've changed the formula though

nah u must have the wrong formular if your average stays the same your price will too.

 

[Effes]

I agree his price shouldn't fall but I do remember some players prices falling last year even though their average improved

 

[Effes]

Is your formula a linear equation?

 

[grimlock]

Cox up $36000
Swan up $45000
Hodge down $1000

Not a bad effort, although I can't believe Hodge went down by nearly 10k!

Cox up 31500
Swan up 46500
Hodge down 9700

 

[Effes]

Suprised Embley dropped as well

 

[Effes]

Tried to work out the formula but it doesn't appear to follow any particular relationship.