Mathematical formula for player value movements

[catempire]

So you guys have figured out the formula?

It appears that DG33 has it pretty much spot on. Whether it works again next week will be interesting to see.

 

[SnIcKeRs #3]

thanks don i get it now so it does give a pretty huge advantage, and DG33 i dont think i asked you to do that i simply asked HOW it can give you an advantage not to tell me what to do and trades.

learn to read SUCKA

 

[DG33]

thanks don i get it now so it does give a pretty huge advantage, and DG33 i dont think i asked you to do that i simply asked HOW it can give you an advantage not to tell me what to do and trades.

learn to read SUCKA

Working out HOW it could give you an advantage was the easy part really. If you needed help with that then I assumed you would need assistance with the rest of it.

 

[Cassius_Clay]

SO they the magic number is last years number. The 3670 one not 4100

 

[SnIcKeRs #3]

well come to think of it how much more will michael johnson go up and wade skipper will milburn go up much more and C cornes thanks DG

 

[Cassius_Clay]

That figure between .27 and .28 is always slightly different. Surely there is a set figure.

 

[grimlock]

That figure between .27 and .28 is always slightly different. Surely there is a set figure.

Its different because they round it to the nearest $100.

 

[Skooks]

The % is about 36-37 not 27-28.

I have checked and checked again, and I am close to 100% sure that I am right.. Anyone care to point out any errors that I may have not foreseen?

 

[Skooks]

The only thing I need to know or research now is..


Next week when they use the new 3 week rolling average, will they use the players original starting price, or their new price that changed this week??

 

[DG33]

The % is about 36-37 not 27-28.

I have checked and checked again, and I am close to 100% sure that I am right.. Anyone care to point out any errors that I may have not foreseen?

Go back through the last couple pages. Its cause you are using their new prices as opposed to the original prices. I did the same thing. % is pretty much 27.5%.

Also, regarding what they will use for next week, I cant see any way that players original prices will still be used. It will always be their current value.

 

[Skooks]

Go back through the last couple pages. Its cause you are using their new prices as opposed to the original prices. I did the same thing. % is pretty much 27.5%.

Also, regarding what they will use for next week, I cant see any way that players original prices will still be used. It will always be their current value.

I did a small calculation error that saw my 36% inflate abit to high.. I got the % as an exact number in the 27% range with a magic number that have both worked out exactly for 5 players now.

 

[macca69]

I think I have a pretty accurate formular, just not sure if it will work for next week, as there are a few variables that wont be known until after the next round. This site may help u guys figure it out too

http://footy.virtualsports.com.au/?p=topplayers&sort=average

 

[sheller891]

whats the exact formular DG, for all of us who don't know...

thanks

 

[Mordecai]

whats the exact formular DG, for all of us who don't know...

thanks

I cant wait.

 

[DG33]

whats the exact formular DG, for all of us who don't know...

thanks

Everything you need to be able to work it out is in this thread. I wouldnt feel right just giving it to you

 

[D0nk]

It's actually quite simple, I couldn't be bothered in the past trying to work it out, but just did it then and it took me about 15 minutes to get a formula that produces price changes that are very close (maybe out by a couple of hundred).

 

[Delroy]

So can someone help me out, Im trying a few quick formulas but the closest I can get is still a little bit off.

I have no Idea if im doing it correctly but using Cox as an example I can get his price to 414 129. The number I times the multiplier by is 113.46, where as it should be around 116.8

Iv'e probably wandered down the wrong path to get these values.

 

[Blinger]

I think I might have finally worked it out, after not even getting close with my other formula.
Current price/3665=expected average
3 previous rounds played including latest game/3=current average
current average- expected average= average difference
average difference * 1000= value to be added or taken away give or take a couple of hundred dollars.
eg. J.Fraser starting price 177000/3665=48.29 276pts/3=92 92-48.29=43.71
4371*1000=43710 increase
R.Jones 263200/3665=71.8, 355/3=118.33, 118.33-71.8=46.53, 4653*1000=46530 increase

 

[Cassius_Clay]

Doenst work for Chad Cornes

 

[chooka_delic]

Doenst work for Chad Cornes

Actually mate it does (off by a few hundred dollars)

 

[Delroy]

Yeh dont forget you have to add the 22k to Cornes to get his original price.

 

[chooka_delic]

Yeh dont forget you have to add the 22k to Cornes to get his original price.

To get his predicted price for the next round (saying he gets 85) what base amount do you use: his original price or currrent price?

 

[Cassius_Clay]

Actually mate it does (off by a few hundred dollars)

Thus it doenst work

 

[Blinger]

To get his predicted price for the next round (saying he gets 85) what base amount do you use: his original price or currrent price?

You would use his current price after the next round is finished.

 

[SnIcKeRs #3]

so that means if skipper scores 50 this week he will rise 25,730