Confirmed Max Holmes [re-signed with Geelong through 2028]

[threenewpadlocks]

Raises the obvious question, what are the possibilities of a Smith/Holmes trade?

It wouldn't be a straight swap, as they just never seem to happen that way these days...but if both parties are interested, there's certainly worse ways to go about it for either club.

If I'm Stephen Wells, I'd certainly take Baz and possibly a pick or two over whatever Collingwood could offer. You have to make the best out of a bad situation with these things.

The pick would be going in the other direction, because Geelong are willing to offer Smith a greater contract than what they're offering Holmes.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Yeah valid points. I would just be backing myself to jump on the upcoming gravy train

It's still a risk though.

Baz is the perfect example right now. He was backing himself to have a huge 2024, and then get massive long term offers.

Now, if we're to believe the rumours, it seems that's it's going to work out for him regardless...but it's fraught with danger.

Not only would he be betting on himself to perform, he's also betting on himself to stay healthy...and he hasn't been an ironman so far in that regard.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

The pick would be going in the other direction, because Geelong are willing to offer Smith a greater contract than what they're offering Holmes.

Regardless, I'd say it wouldn't be a life-changing pick or two either way.

In terms of the offers they're both getting, and their comparable play, it wouldn't be anything huge.

Baz + a first round pick is too much for Holmes, likewise Holmes + a first round pick is too much for Baz. We'd be talking seconds or thirds either way.

From a Dogs POV, do you take the proven player or the Hawthorn pick?

 

[mattwa]

If I'm a talented young player the Dogs would be about the last club I'd sign for. What's to say I'm not the next Dunkley, Hunter, MacRae, Daniel, Smith, etc. There's starting to be a history of disgruntled senior players.

Really? You don't think kicking it to JUH, Naughton and Darcy is going to be appealing. Hunter was pushed out due to "Oliver" like issues. Macrae hasn't played 2 games cause he was underdone and we are prioritising speed atm and Daniel is not disgruntled. Dunkley the only outlier and I don't think Smith if he does leave is on bad terms with the club. Very much overblown these issues you describe

 

[TiAn_]

If I'm a talented young player the Dogs would be about the last club I'd sign for. What's to say I'm not the next Dunkley, Hunter, MacRae, Daniel, Smith, etc. There's starting to be a history of disgruntled senior players.

Disgruntled premiership players? He should be so lucky.

 

[TiAn_]

Regardless, I'd say it wouldn't be a life-changing pick or two either way.

In terms of the offers they're both getting, and their comparable play, it wouldn't be anything huge.

Baz + a first round pick is too much for Holmes, likewise Holmes + a first round pick is too much for Baz. We'd be talking seconds or thirds either way.

From a Dogs POV, do you take the proven player or the Hawthorn pick?

I’m sure there’ll be opinions either way, but personally I’d take the proven commodity in Holmes. He would be a huge upgrade on either of our wings, with scope to take over from Treloar, next to Bont & Sanders.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Cap space isn't really an issue at the Dogs believe it or not. Cap increase and a few key retirements free'd up some money over the last two years (Bruce was on very good money). With Baz out the door and the Dunkley money still basically unused we have a bit of coin to throw around. Naughton was already on the T. Boyd money, talk is his 8 year contract wasn't much of a bump per year on his already 1m deal.

Jamarra and english are going to cost a whole lot to retain though.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

The pick would be going in the other direction, because Geelong are willing to offer Smith a greater contract than what they're offering Holmes.

If smith wasnt out for the year you would be right but i doubt he holds that value off an acl.

 

[TiAn_]

Jamarra and english are going to cost a whole lot to retain though.

English won’t be getting much more than he’s already on.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Really? You don't think kicking it to JUH, Naughton and Darcy is going to be appealing. Hunter was pushed out due to "Oliver" like issues. Macrae hasn't played 2 games cause he was underdone and we are prioritising speed atm and Daniel is not disgruntled. Dunkley the only outlier and I don't think Smith if he does leave is on bad terms with the club. Very much overblown these issues you describe

As far as I can tell MacRae missed a month of preseason with a hamstring and has now played 3 games in the VFL before being recalled. I can't remember another senior player having to do that.

And yeah if I'm Holmes and I see a senior player like Daniel relegated to the sub role after finishing 4th in the B&F last year while a few genuine spuds are in the starting lineup I'd wonder how safe my spot will be if they suddenly stop prioritising speed.

Every club can give a positive spin for why players should join them. But no other club has such a string of top 10 players suddenly finding themselves out of the team.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

As far as I can tell MacRae missed a month of preseason with a hamstring and has now played 3 games in the VFL before being recalled. I can't remember another senior player having to do that.

And yeah if I'm Holmes and I see a senior player like Daniel relegated to the sub role after finishing 4th in the B&F last year while a few genuine spuds are in the starting lineup I'd wonder how safe my spot will be if they suddenly stop prioritising speed.

Every club can give a positive spin for why players should join them. But no other club has such a string of top 10 players suddenly finding themselves out of the team.

I'd be ok with making senior players work their way in via the vfl.

If I'm looking at the bulldogs though there's a 6k post thread on their board about problems with their coaching group that I feel is only partially resolved.

 

[DanA]

Holmes to me would be a bigger loss than Tim Kelly

11

Tim Kelly

Age

29

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.6

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

19.9

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

7.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

4.7

5star

CL

3.6

4star

D

21.6

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.2

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.8

5star

. I know Kelly was playing at a higher level but we had a decent midfield group then. Losing Holmes leaves us pretty threadbare.

 

[blurst]

Holmes to me would be a bigger loss than Tim Kelly. I know Kelly was playing at a higher level but we had a decent midfield group then. Losing Holmes leaves us pretty threadbare.

Agree on the Holmes/Kelly comparison.

Though if the last few years have proven anything, it’s your clubs uncanny ability to acquire underpriced young talent from other clubs, especially under the guise of “homesickness”. It would look bare if it weren’t for getting Bruhn cheap (plus Henry up forward), drafting Clark with a pick you had no business having, plus constantly landing these Irish kids.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Agree on the Holmes/Kelly comparison.

Though if the last few years have proven anything, it’s your clubs uncanny ability to acquire underpriced young talent from other clubs, especially under the guise of “homesickness”. It would look bare if it weren’t for getting Bruhn cheap (plus Henry up forward), drafting Clark with a pick you had no business having, plus constantly landing these Irish kids.

The other thing that we've discussed on our board a bit is if Max leaves, it doesn't just end there.

We're proactive enough to either replace him in that trade period, or get enough out of the deal that it doesn't look so bad.

Either way, I doubt he goes. From what we're hearing it's purely a money thing, and we'll give him close enough to what he wants.

If someone offers him 1.1m+ over 5-6 years and that's what he wants out of his career then good luck to him. That's pretty hard to turn down.

We'll be well compensated and you move on. We seem to forget that it's mainly a job for these guys.

It's very rarely anything personal. The complaining from adults in situations like Ollie Henry like they've murdered somebody is just ridiculous.

 

[DanA]

Agree on the Holmes/Kelly comparison.

Though if the last few years have proven anything, it’s your clubs uncanny ability to acquire underpriced young talent from other clubs, especially under the guise of “homesickness”. It would look bare if it weren’t for getting Bruhn cheap (plus Henry up forward), drafting Clark with a pick you had no business having, plus constantly landing these Irish kids.

We got Bruhn, Henry, Clark, and Bowes in the one trade/draft period which might turn out a good bit of business but I'd argue a lot of water has to go under the bridge before we know how uncanny it was. None of them have done anything of note yet.


Now turning Tim Kelly into Sam Dekoning and most of the Jeremy Cameron trade.....that was uncanny.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

We got Bruhn, Henry, Clark, and Bowes in the one trade/draft period which might turn out a good bit of business but I'd argue a lot of water has to go under the bridge before we know how uncanny it was. None of them have done anything of note yet.


Now turning Tim Kelly into Sam Dekoning and most of the Jeremy Cameron trade.....that was uncanny.

Yeah...40+ goals as a 20 year old just happens all the time these days.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

The other thing that we've discussed on our board a bit is if Max leaves, it doesn't just end there.

We're proactive enough to either replace him in that trade period, or get enough out of the deal that it doesn't look so bad.

Either way, I doubt he goes. From what we're hearing it's purely a money thing, and we'll give him close enough to what he wants.

If someone offers him 1.1m+ over 5-6 years and that's what he wants out of his career then good luck to him. That's pretty hard to turn down.

We'll be well compensated and you move on. We seem to forget that it's mainly a job for these guys.

It's very rarely anything personal. The complaining from adults in situations like Ollie Henry like they've murdered somebody is just ridiculous.

Don't think there would be a realistic scenario where we lose Holmes and get back anything comparable to what we've lost

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Holmes to me would be a bigger loss than Tim Kelly. I know Kelly was playing at a higher level but we had a decent midfield group then. Losing Holmes leaves us pretty threadbare.

Holmes is definitely our most important ooc player this year and would be a big loss.
But clark and bruhn are both looking really good, bowes had a super pre season as a mid before he was injured, and the early signs from dempsey and mannagh are very good.
Plus im sure we would chase a mid in trade if we lost holmes.
It would be a blow but it wouldnt be crushing.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Don't think there would be a realistic scenario where we lose Holmes and get back anything comparable to what we've lost

If we traded most of the picks we get for holmes for smith and if we got an ok mid in FA also that would be a decent salvage.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

If we traded most of the picks we get for holmes for smith and if we got an ok mid in FA also that would be a decent salvage.

If a Holmes trade got us Smith then there would be a chance we salvage it but I would say the chance Smith's knees save the day is 50/50.

I'd be willing to throw away our first and a 4 year contract on Smith because I'd be willing to lose that on a 50/50.

Not willing to lose Homes on that bet

 

[Pure_Ownage]

If a Holmes trade got us Smith then there would be a chance we salvage it but I would say the chance Smith's knees save the day is 50/50.

I'd be willing to throw away our first and a 4 year contract on Smith because I'd be willing to lose that on a 50/50.

Not willing to lose Homes on that bet

Fair comment
I do agree smith is a risk due to the knee
My position is id rather keep holmes than get say a mid 1st and a 3rd (assuming thats what wed get for him)
However if we cant keep holmes id prefer smith to pick 12ish in the draft,unless i knew that pick would get us jagga smith and i suspect he will be off the board by then.

 

[DanA]

Yeah...40+ goals as a 20 year old just happens all the time these days.

It doesn’t happen often. It’s also not often that a 40 goal forward is on the fringe of the side but here we are. Menzel was a good example (though not 20 y.o) where scoreboard impact wasn’t enough.

With Henry, he has all the talent in the world, and no devastating injury…so no reason not too, but he got to develop a defensive work rate to be an impact player rather than just another guy in the team.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

It doesn’t happen often. It’s also not often that a 40 goal forward is on the fringe of the side but here we are. Menzel was a good example (though not 20 y.o) where scoreboard impact wasn’t enough.

With Henry, he has all the talent in the world, and no devastating injury…so no reason not too, but he got to develop a defensive work rate to be an impact player rather than just another guy in the team.

40 goals in a middle of the pack side is an impact no matter which way you slice it. He's not on the fringe.

Guys who can do that are bloody hard to find. You've got a problem when it's the opposite (E.g he offers pressure, but SFA anywhere else)

 

[Robroy22]

Yeah...40+ goals as a 20 year old just happens all the time these days.

Think Jayden Stephenson did it in 2018 and Jack Ginnivan did it in 2022 but they were both probably not as good as Ollie??

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Think Jayden Stephenson did it in 2018 and Jack Ginnivan did it in 2022 but they were both probably not as good as Ollie??

Do you have ADD or something?