Prediction Michael Barlow

[Big Gazoongas]

They did, remember? Then they messed it up and went "oh...wait..."

What is it that they messed up? Not giving 2 first rounders for Gibbs?

 

[Jack is Back]

Fact is, if we took winning seriously, instead of just being 'better than most teams' "especially port", we would've delisted Thommo back when he was only 32.We knew 2017 was our window. If we put the last 2 years into Grigg or CEY instead of cripple league Thommo they'd be at or past the 50 games and their output now would certainly be beyond anything 34 year old Thommo can do.Anyone who thinks Grigg or CEY wouldn't accumulate more than 24 possessions if they had been given 2 years of confidence and trust from the club is a full blown idiot.

The exact quote from Walshy was
“It’s about 138 average (games) and about 28 years of age,” Walsh said. “We’re not near that. Reality says, if you look at our age demographic, we’re going to get closer to those numbers in about season 2017.”

In Bigfooty speak that means we should win the flag in 2017. Since making that quote on 21/1/15 we have lost our coach and the Brownlow medalist. Even if we had traded two first round picks for Gibbs does anyone really believe we will have the most talented and most experienced team in the league? Feel free to bump this post when CEY and Grigg become above average AFL midfielders.

The key to player development is to give games to players who have the potential to be above average AFL footballers and not give games to players who will be at best marginal AFL footballers. We have done that very well in the last two years. Clearly the AFC didn't see Grigg and Lyons (who I expect to develop into a good AFL footballer) and I suspect CEY as part of our next flag. They have given opportunities to Lever, Cameron, Milera and McGovern who never tore it apart in the SANFL.

IMHO we need to "find" at least another 3 or 4 good AFL players. I believe they are already on our list.
1) I will not lose any sleep if we do not recruit Barlow but I do see that he could be a handy back up player
2) I want to see Thommo and Mackay play little or no AFL games next year. (I am happy to add Douglas, Cheney and Barlow to that list).
3) We are a chance to win the flag next year but we are far from the favourites. If we recruit well and develop our KIDS we will be front and centre over next 5 years.

 

[feenix67]

I read all this in posts after posts on this thread.

If the club went with the "don't say anything" option do you really believe there would not have been a melt down. I wouldn't have a problem with this but there are others that would. You only have to go through threads to find enough evidence, past and present.

When the club comes out and "spins" the commentary we still get the melt down.

Problem is people think, we, as posters have some god given right to be told the inner workings and strategy around trading and drafting. I would be mortified if the club made any comment on its intentions regarding this.
That would be down right incompetent.

Don't have a problem with debating or discussing outcomes, but the expectation we are told the "truth" whatever that is, is nothing more than fantasy.

The club came out the day after we bowed out, saying "we will be targeting midfield talent in the trade period, draft, whatever". Hence, they set an expectation and also a stated goal for the off season. People are pissed that they are now spinning that stated goal.

Note, people have been largely supportive of the club's vault-like information vacuum since Fagan came on board, so your assertion in bold has no merit. What people dont like is being bullshitted to, and many see the comments post trade period as exactly that.

Noone wants the club to give away secrets to their own detriment, but we do expect the club to not treat us like idiots. We're the bums on seats, the sponsors, the TV watchers - their pay packets. Like any shareholder in any business, a certain level of transparency and trustworthiness is, and should be, expected by the members and supporters.

 

[Big Gazoongas]

That's true. We see what their trading and draft strategy is by what they do.

Although that doesn't seem to make it easier to work out

Correct. The caveat to this is that outcomes don't always match original expectations. The detail of what and how we are trying to achieve this is behind closed doors.

 

[feenix67]

What is it that they messed up? Not giving 2 first rounders for Gibbs?

There's a pretty lengthy thread for that discussion, but we all agree (except you perhaps) that our trade period performance was underwhelming.

 

[Vader]

None of those decisions have had much impact on the team either way

Thompson for Lyons does

You're kidding, right?

Thompson will be playing mainly in the SANFL. I doubt he'll play more than 6 AFL games next year. Retaining him, or not retaining him, makes very little difference.

Similarly, losing Lyons has little or no impact. If anything, it creates a vacancy for a better player to fill - Barlow, Knight, Milera, ...

Thompson/Lyons is no worse than the 2015 idiocy. If Thompson does a decent job of mentoring the SANFL players then the 2016 decisions will probably come out ahead.

I have a great deal of faith in the ability of Ogilvie (and his team) to identify and draft talented players. I have a significant level of faith in our coaches' ability to develop that talent. I have far less faith in the ability of our list management team to make timely decisions about cutting players with limited futures.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

You're kidding, right?

Thompson will be playing mainly in the SANFL. I doubt he'll play more than 6 AFL games next year. Retaining him, or not retaining him, makes very little difference.

Similarly, losing Lyons has little or no impact. If anything, it creates a vacancy for a better player to fill - Barlow, Knight, Milera, ...

Thompson/Lyons is no worse than the 2015 idiocy. If Thompson does a decent job of mentoring the SANFL players then the 2016 decisions will probably come out ahead.

Yeah, yeah... Thompson will be 'depth' next year. Will believe that when I see it. People are trumpeting this as though it's a given.

I'll be interested to see if the replacement gets better numbers than Lyons in 2017. Or Lyons' numbers from 2016 for that matter.

Won't Thompson be a vacancy given that he's 100% definite to be playing SANFL?

I have a great deal of faith in the ability of Ogilvie (and his team) to identify and draft talented players. I have a significant level of faith in our coaches' ability to develop that talent. I have far less faith in the ability of our list management team to make timely decisions about cutting players with limited futures.

More than the club's presumably given that we're rushing around to get Barlow in there and desperately clinging on to Thompson.

If we have faith in our system and our young players then we don't need Thompson or Barlow. Ergo, we don't.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Correct. The caveat to this is that outcomes don't always match original expectations. The detail of what and how we are trying to achieve this is behind closed doors.

That's what performance is.

You don't get to recast expectations because you fail to deliver.

 

[Big Gazoongas]

The club came out the day after we bowed out, saying "we will be targeting midfield talent in the trade period, draft, whatever". Hence, they set an expectation and also a stated goal for the off season. People are pissed that they are now spinning that stated goal.

Note, people have been largely supportive of the club's vault-like information vacuum since Fagan came on board, so your assertion in bold has no merit. What people dont like is being bullshitted to, and many see the comments post trade period as exactly that.

Noone wants the club to give away secrets to their own detriment, but we do expect the club to not treat us like idiots. We're the bums on seats, the sponsors, the TV watchers - their pay packets. Like any shareholder in any business, a certain level of transparency and trustworthiness is, and should be, expected by the members and supporters.

I can't remember the club specifically stating we would target midfielders in the Trade period. Did they make the same specific statements for pick 13 in the draft, not sure could be wrong. They did say after the trade period they would take that pick to the draft like they had intended.
And lets say they did. Its like saying I want to buy a new car, and, not sure that is divulging anything significant.

Re the bolded text. Problem with this is that the reason supporters say the club is treating them as idiots is because the club aren't telling the "truth". If you really expect the club to tell the "truth" they are going to have to give away their "secrets".

I'd rather judge the club on outcomes.

 

[feenix67]

More than the club's presumably given that we're rushing around to get Barlow in there and desperately clinging on to Thompson.

If we have faith in our system and our young players then we don't need Thompson or Barlow. Ergo, we don't.

This aspect is becoming more and more apparent with our club. We seem too afraid to back in decisions, strategies, directions. We continually flop around making each way bets, and finishing in the minor placings.

I wish they'd understand that the supporters would rather see decisive action, rather than middle ground management. Personally, I'd rather the club made 100 decisions I didnt agree with, as long as I could see a plan.

This is what annoys me about the Barlow issue. Yes I can see merit in picking him up. Yes he's a decent player and would be a good inclusion in our midfield. But it doesn't fit a discernible plan.

 

[marty36]

Yeah, yeah... Thompson will be 'depth' next year. Will believe that when I see it. People are trumpeting this as though it's a given.

I'll be interested to see if the replacement gets better numbers than Lyons in 2017. Or Lyons' numbers from 2016 for that matter.

Won't Thompson be a vacancy given that he's 100% definite to be playing SANFL?


More than the club's presumably given that we're rushing around to get Barlow in there and desperately clinging on to Thompson.

If we have faith in our system and our young players then we don't need Thompson or Barlow. Ergo, we don't.

Said this for the past year or so, If our drafting has been that good we would be in a fantastic position, I know we will come back to Tippet. But apart from that if we truly need Barlow a 29 year old delisted player that one of the bottom teams couldnt find a spot for but will be integral to our plans it says something about our drafting history. The biggest impact was probably Dangerfield, imagine if we had treated Geelong the way Carlton was with Gibbs. It would either meant we got a fair figure for him, Kept him or he would be in Bris Vegas.

 

[feenix67]

I can't remember the club specifically stating we would target midfielders in the Trade period. Did they make the same specific statements for pick 13 in the draft, not sure could be wrong. They did say after the trade period they would take that pick to the draft like they had intended.
And lets say they did. Its like saying I want to buy a new car, and, not sure that is divulging anything significant.

Re the bolded text. Problem with this is that the reason supporters say the club is treating them as idiots is because the club aren't telling the "truth". If you really expect the club to tell the "truth" they are going to have to give away their "secrets".

I'd rather judge the club on outcomes.

Seriously? The rest of your argument is invalid if you dont even know what people are pissed about. Suggest you go back and read.

 

[Big Gazoongas]

There's a pretty lengthy thread for that discussion, but we all agree (except you perhaps) that our trade period performance was underwhelming.

We are all under whelmed by not bringing in talent to improve our list. What I'm not underwhelmed with is paying way over and above at the determent of list management beyond today.

We have already paid the price of losing draft picks.

I was OK with paying 1 x first rounder for Gibbs not no way in hell we pay 2x first rounders for him.

 

[Big Gazoongas]

Seriously? The rest of your argument is invalid if you dont even know what people are pissed about. Suggest you go back and read.

I know what people a pissed about mate, It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work that out.

The rest of my argument is invalid because it doesn't suit?

Seriously the amount of precious posters is amazing.

The club lied, its all spin. they say one thing then contradict themselves. Organic growth, but they want Barlow, they think we are all idiots........

 

[feenix67]

I know what people a pissed about mate, It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work that out.

The rest of my argument is invalid because it doesn't suit?

Seriously the amount of precious posters is amazing.

The club lied, its all spin. they say one thing then contradict themselves. Organic growth, but they want Barlow, they think we are all idiots........

You weren't even aware of our List Management Committee Chairman's comments the day after the Sydney loss, so you haven't got the correct context for the rest of your assertions. Come back to me when you have a well formed opinion.

 

[Wood_Duck]

So you think that the club should come out and tell us their trading and drafting strategy?

You're reading a lot into my comments.

No they shouldnt, but their bullshit should be at least feasible.

 

[hey shorty]

Yeah, yeah... Thompson will be 'depth' next year. Will believe that when I see it. People are trumpeting this as though it's a given.

I'll be interested to see if the replacement gets better numbers than Lyons in 2017. Or Lyons' numbers from 2016 for that matter.

Won't Thompson be a vacancy given that he's 100% definite to be playing SANFL?


More than the club's presumably given that we're rushing around to get Barlow in there and desperately clinging on to Thompson.

If we have faith in our system and our young players then we don't need Thompson or Barlow. Ergo, we don't.

IMO Lyons numbers will be absorbed by a number of players, that dirty word 'organic'. I see Charlie playing more midfield minutes, and both Crouch brothers still have much improvement in them, even Sloane to a lesser extent.

IMO our midfield can be a fair sight better than this year with the right mix. That assumes Thommo is indeed a break glass option, whether Barlow comes or not makes near as much no difference for mine.

 

[Niximus]

It seems to me like the most likely scenario was

- We identified the midfield as an area we were deficient in.

- Plan A would have been trade/free agency.

- Our recruiting team would have already been working through the year making contact with wanted players.

- None of those came off this year for whatever reason (couldn't convince them to come, couldn't agree on salary/conditions/contract length, etc).

- OK, on to plan B, back in our youngsters to develop in 2017. This doesn't rule out going for someone else again next year.

- THEN was when we signed Thompson and if the rumours are correct, he's been told he'll be in the SANFL. I'd have let him go completely, but if they want him as a break glass option, or a mostly coaching role, ok.

- Then we get the Gibbs call. In the middle of a 5-year contract, he wasn't on the initial hit list, but we were interested.

- Our valuation on Gibbs and Carlton's asking price were never close, the trade didn't happen. We obviously decided that what what Gibbs brings to the club < what we think Pick 13 + next year's first will bring.

- I'm not sure whether we are chasing Barlow, or if that's just internet rumour, but if we are, it'd be because we think that what he'd bring > what our last pick would.

 

[baldandbroke]

Yeah, except they were quite strident about their intentions of finding quality midfielders pre trade, and then when they didnt open the present handed to them, decided to completely change tack. We were going to be the "no spin" club, right? So either don't say anything, or make sure what you do say isn't bullshit. We pay their bills, remember?

So what has come out that is so much "spin"?

That we didn't go all in for a new midfielder at all costs? I was hoping that was the plan before the trade period, but I don't think the club came out and stated anything like that would happen in a trade / FA.
That we didn't get Rockliff? Again, another one I was keen on - but the club wasn't, not publically.
That we didn't get Gibbs? Things come in threes but this one I was in the a 1st and a 2nd camp (or two firsts for a second) - but the club wasn't.

How does the opportunity to get Barlow (another thing the club has not made a single statement on beyond "we don't discuss list management in public") somehow turn AFC into the house of spin?

I think supporters on BF are spinning what they thought would happen with what they now think will happen - and trying to show some monumental insight to highlight their knowledge. I'm not sure how that is the AFC's fault or problem?

Unless I have missed something that the club have said - I can't quite see where the calls for us to stop bullsh!tting are coming from?

 

[baldandbroke]

None of those decisions have had much impact on the team either way. Thompson for Lyons does

What if it is Barlow for Lyons? Does that change the impact back the other way?

 

[Big Gazoongas]

You weren't even aware of our List Management Committee Chairman's comments the day after the Sydney loss, so you haven't got the correct context for the rest of your assertions. Come back to me when you have a well formed opinion.

WOW...really. Now you're telling me what I am or aren't aware of. Must be some mighty crystal ball you have there........because you're the only one with their finger on the pulse right? Or your the only one that listens or reads?

Its great when one places themselves on such a pedestal that all others should be judge on.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

You weren't even aware of our List Management Committee Chairman's comments the day after the Sydney loss, so you haven't got the correct context for the rest of your assertions. Come back to me when you have a well formed opinion.

Pot, Kettle, Black

 

[WaynesWorld19]

So what has come out that is so much "spin"?

That we didn't go all in for a new midfielder at all costs? I was hoping that was the plan before the trade period, but I don't think the club came out and stated anything like that would happen in a trade / FA.
That we didn't get Rockliff? Again, another one I was keen on - but the club wasn't, not publically.
That we didn't get Gibbs? Things come in threes but this one I was in the a 1st and a 2nd camp (or two firsts for a second) - but the club wasn't.

How does the opportunity to get Barlow (another thing the club has not made a single statement on beyond "we don't discuss list management in public") somehow turn AFC into the house of spin?

I think supporters on BF are spinning what they thought would happen with what they now think will happen - and trying to show some monumental insight to highlight their knowledge. I'm not sure how that is the AFC's fault or problem?

Unless I have missed something that the club have said - I can't quite see where the calls for us to stop bullsh!tting are coming from?

FACT is there's never been a plan, business or otherwise ....that's been so rigid, as to not allow for variations based on opportunity or change in the original premise behind the plan

 

[Wood_Duck]

Unless I have missed something that the club have said - I can't quite see where the calls for us to stop bullsh!tting are coming from?

Just get better at it. No need to stop.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

What if it is Barlow for Lyons? Does that change the impact back the other way?

As this discussion progresses, Lyons is assuming legendary Dangerfield like capabilities ......reality is that Kerridge over Lyons was probably a better scenario last year

Lyons will be easily replaced ......irrespective of how its phrased ...Barlow for Lyons, Barlow for Grigg, it's a win in terms of midfield depth and an additional big body