Autopsy Mid-season Review/Preview

[schmuttt]

We're gonna give Essendon their first finals win in a hundred years or whatever it is lol

Oh geez, can see that coming a mile off now.

 

[melbun]

On the bright side, Tomlinson, Daniel Turner, Brown, Schache were very good in the VFL.
Let's see whether 14 marks in VFL defence is good enough to get you a game at Melbourne.

 

[newcastlefalcon]

May - looks to have lost a yard and is pretty s**t when the ball hits the ground Needs to demand the same standards of himself that he yells at teammates - poor below knees and has trouble keeping his feet

JVR - a potential star but is unsuited to our horrible forward delivery Agree

Salem - has actually played quite well but his auto-selection after a long lay off is symptomatic of poor selection integrity Have been impressed since he came back

Harmes - just a shadow, clearly not one of Goody’s boys. Seems to have dropped off a long way, will he be there in 24?

Petracca - had a pretty good year but his use of the ball is mind bogglingly bad too frequently. Agree

Grundy - solid but not spectacular. Didn’t realise he was quite so weak in marking contests. I am undecided on him yet

Viney - probably our best performer after a poor start to the year. Hard and honest

Lever - pretty average season. A fair way below 21’s form. I think his game is negatively impacted by the depth of the back 6

Spargo - I like him but he’s been quite poor this year and our game plan does him no favours Down so far

Brayshaw - basically can only play half back because he’s a gd liability everywhere else Just can't work him out

Gawn - his marking seems to have fallen off a cliff and he remains a very average forward Freo and Cats came up with the strategy of monstering him whenever he was near the ball. There appear to be no rules in the ruck.

Hunter - one of a few shining lights. A clever, tough little bugger that has settled in well on the wing Impressive since joining the club

Oliver - a solid year but like Petracca it feels as though he could be so much better Kicking has improved but could still be much better

Hibberd - a really solid year, probably still the best small defensive stopper on the list - Consistent

Langdon - a long way off 2021 form and has looked timid out there at times Down year

Laurie - barely had a chance but doesn’t look a better option than an underwhelming Spargo Worth a longer look

Bowey - good little player but he’s at risk of not having a role if the coaches don’t push him further up the ground Agree

Melksham - a good servant who is clearly a coach favourite. About 3 years past his use by. Always know what you get but is it still AFL standard

Schache - trading Weid out and him in was deck chairs on the Titanic. I watched a couple of Casey games and I wondered whether while MacDonald was out whether he was worth some game time

Tomlinson - a few good games and a couple of poor ones. Unlucky to be dropped for Petty against Geelong. Not the most talented but tries hard and unlucky to be dropped

Jordon - in a side with 642 inside mids, he is surplus to requirements He is probably somewhere else in 24

Rivers - one of the most improved. But like umpteen others he can put a ball into orbit Has certainly shown some talent and improvement

McDonald - cooked with a turning circle like the Queen Mary Agree

Smith - has played a role up forward but remains a fringe option He seems worth persevering with as he offers something different

ANB - slightly better season than Spargo Not sure where he is at this year

Fritsch - in terrible form. Still kicks his 2 or 3 but it’s more by default than design Agree out of sorts but still gets on the scoreboard

Sparrow - struggles when Oliver plays a 6/10 sort of year

Petty - terrible start to the season in defence, swung forward with mixed results He seems just a bit off but worth continuing in the forwards

Pickett - outstanding Round 1, been poor since. Can't see why we are not running him through the midfield (not Fulltime) to get him into the game.

Chandler - has slowed after a terrific start I think his dip is due to how the ball is coming into the forward line. Seems to be able to find space

McVee - a shining light this season Agree

Turner - one game with a really bad match up Not sure

Brown - started ok but looks cooked in the VFL Has he gone a year too long?

Comments above for what it is worth.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

I love reading the “we’re going to play an away QF v Port/miss the top 4/miss finals” melts on here, it’s the only thing that really makes it feel like 2021 again

 

[schmuttt]

I love reading the “we’re going to play an away QF v Port/miss the top 4/miss finals” melts on here, it’s the only thing that really makes it feel like 2021 again

We are though. 2021 we dominated the good sides in the H&A, since start of 2022 we’ve been awful against them.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

We are though. 2021 we dominated the good sides in the H&A, since start of 2022 we’ve been awful against them.

Yeah but we have a pretty soft run home. We outplayed Collingwood easily, played like shite and lost to Port away by under a goal when Oliver went down, and ran Brisbane fairly close at the Gabba after getting sprung without Gawn. If we lose to Brisbane at the G and the Saints away it’s effectively curtains but given we’ve taken it right up to the two sides currently sitting clear top 2 by three games we’ve done as well as most teams against the top sides this year, even if we were shite last year.

Rozee doesn’t kick that goal against us or they don’t kick two goals after the 1Q and 3Q siren from free kicks and we’re 2-0 v the top 2 and sitting one game off second spot. There’s not a lot in it. It’s not as though Collingwood or Port somehow dominated us, I don’t think we have that much to fear from rematches with Oliver and Petty back. And even last year we got 20 points up against every single team except Geelong before we lost, we aren’t getting outplayed wire to wire.

 

[LarryDavidNeitz]

The shame about this season is it's almost exactly as predicted/feared.

We have nearly all the components of a premiership threat - star midfielders, defence that usually gets the job done, some youngsters going to a new level in McVee, Rivers (top 3 in B&F IMO) and (in the first 6 weeks before drop off) Chandler.

Problem is the same one that's haunted us for years if you take out 2021. Our forward line is often dysfunctional and so is our delivery into it. It's hard to see how we change it now - we've got 75% of a premiership calibre team but we talk about our forward line like we're a bottom 2 side clutching at straws looking for light at the end of a tunnel (JVR is going to be a star! Smith gives us a spark!). As much as those things are true, that's not how you talk about a potential premiership forward line.

We're also inconsistent with effort in a way that the top premiership fancies in any given year aren't. Premiership sides might have 2-3 games where they don't show up across a whole season. We're running at about 1 in 3 games where we are flat and intensity isn't there.

We also don't have the depth on the list to make 3-4 changes to the starting side to give us a different look. Disco looks a player but needs the right match up, Jefferson hopefully will be ready in a year, Woey should get a game soon. Aside from that we're most likely going to be cycling through the same old Brown/Schache/Tommo/Jordon/Spargo changes for the rest of the year.

The frustrating thing is it's not impossible that we get it all together at the right time of the year so it's hard to just write the season off and not worry about it. But if I was a betting man, which I am, I'd have us at least $20 for the flag and about $1.50 not to make a prelim.

 

[Toump Ass]

Here's where I see it:

They won a flag and don't give a s**t anymore. Can still win it, but need a (massive) kick up the arse.

 

[jhong]

Gawn -- Needs a spell at the Panel beaters , his body is showing too much wear and tear .
Brayshaw - Needs a wheel alignment , wheels go in different directions ending up off the road.
T-Mac - Needs a new mechanic or his roadworthy will expire .
Brown -- Just had a service , am sure Goody will give him a run at some point .
Melksham -- Maybe starting to think his licence will expire and not be renewed .
Harmes --- Can't work out what the hell he is supposed to be .
Trac --- Get angry ,throw a punch , stop being mr nice guy .
May --- Been a warrior , but Rohan made you look like you couldn't get out of first gear .
Fritsch -- More a Bentley than a Rolls Royce but suffers from crappy service
Jordan --- whatever
Sparrow -- Strong chassis , should be doing better
Spargo - Wheels are spinning but going nowhere .
Oliver --- Hurry back pls .
Kozzie --- Mate ,your not an aeroplane , pls stay on the deck .
Chandler -- MIA lately


Simply have a bunch of players who are not performing consistently to the level we expect .
I also think Goodwin built a team to win a flag ,and did, but its starting to look like they are maybe not suited to the play fast idea . Some of their skills are being shown up as not really suited to it.

Anyway i look forward to being proved wrong .

 

[djpaulydemon]

Tend to agree with both Gys and LD - we have taken it up to top 2 and clearly are thereabouts. Game against Bris and Saints probably shapes top 4.

But we haven't clicked consistently for a block of weeks all year, looked extremely deficient in the forward line and most players are not at AA level bar Rivers who is is in career best form.

 

[Dory_77]

Tend to agree with both Gys and LD - we have taken it up to top 2 and clearly are thereabouts. Game against Bris and Saints probably shapes top 4.

But we haven't clicked consistently for a block of weeks all year, looked extremely deficient in the forward line and most players are not at AA level bar Rivers who is is in career best form.

Even within games there's massive swings in how we play - last 10 vs Brisbane compared to the rest of the night; 3rd quarter against port compared to the rest; last quarter capitulation last Thursday. Even when we're in control in a game we don't have the same ruthlessness as '21 (or even early '22) to keep it going.

 

[stEdy]

Most annoying thing about the Dees this year is that I have barely been able to tip us correctly in games against good teams.

Thought we would roll Bris at the Gabba given our form against them - played horribly

Tipped Swans against us given their form to start the year (on reflection they thumped two shyte teams) and amazing form against us - we then show up big time

Tipped us to beat Dons who were in good form and we don't show up at all.

Tip us against Port in Port and we play 1 good quarter of footy and nearly steal it, despite being thoroughly outplayed.

Tip us to bounce back against Freo at home and once again we don't show up.

Then tip Pies and we outplay them all day.

Go in confident against the Cats given KB and their injuries and we fall apart in the last.

Kind of never know which Dees will show up - which means the trust really isn't there to perform on the big stage.

 

[pjfairbairn]

Kind of never know which Dees will show up - which means the trust really isn't there to perform on the big stage.

This.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Most annoying thing about the Dees this year is that I have barely been able to tip us correctly in games against good teams.

Thought we would roll Bris at the Gabba given our form against them - played horribly

Tipped Swans against us given their form to start the year (on reflection they thumped two shyte teams) and amazing form against us - we then show up big time

Tipped us to beat Dons who were in good form and we don't show up at all.

Tip us against Port in Port and we play 1 good quarter of footy and nearly steal it, despite being thoroughly outplayed.

Tip us to bounce back against Freo at home and once again we don't show up.

Then tip Pies and we outplay them all day.

Go in confident against the Cats given KB and their injuries and we fall apart in the last.

Kind of never know which Dees will show up - which means the trust really isn't there to perform on the big stage.

I think the one thing to be said is that at least we haven’t lost a game this year with all five of Gawn, Oliver, Petracca, Lever and May fit and firing and playing all four quarters. I know you shouldn’t be relying on a 100% fit list, but all we need is a little bit of luck and those five play all three finals and we win through.

If we were losing games with our stars at full fitness I’d basically be writing the season off, but I don’t think they’ve hit their collective peak yet.

 

[LarryDavidNeitz]

I think the one thing to be said is that at least we haven’t lost a game this year with all five of Gawn, Oliver, Petracca, Lever and May fit and firing and playing all four quarters. I know you shouldn’t be relying on a 100% fit list, but all we need is a little bit of luck and those five play all three finals and we win through.

If we were losing games with our stars at full fitness I’d basically be writing the season off, but I don’t think they’ve hit their collective peak yet.

That's true but problem is it's more likely than not that one of these guys will be injured at any one time. We'd be pretty lucky to have all of them fit and firing for a full finals campaign, Lever ends every second game looking proppy and May isn't exactly robust with soft tissue injuries.

 

[djpaulydemon]

It's such a shame we didn't kick straight in the Pies game. We had 15 marks inside 50 and moved the ball well. The Blues and Cats games are more representative of where we are at with our forward line, but it would of been great to have a standout game where it was working well against top opposition.

Earlier in the year I feel our defenders held back and we conceded lots of stoppage D50 goals and generally bigger scores, but had lots of space on the counter and scored way easier.

I think there is a world where we can defend better and have space in the forward line, the press doesn't go as high and our mids don't crowd the forward line as often. Bar the Bris game there hasn't been a game where we not been able to move the ball from Defence to Attack fairly reasonably.

I'd love Goodwin to focus on us scoring more by lowering the press and giving our forwards more space.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

That's true but problem is it's more likely than not that one of these guys will be injured at any one time. We'd be pretty lucky to have all of them fit and firing for a full finals campaign, Lever ends every second game looking proppy and May isn't exactly robust with soft tissue injuries.

That’s the point though. Either we’re fully fit and all of this supposed bad form against the top sides becomes irrelevant, or we aren’t fully fit and then we’re ****ed unless we pull out a KB quality four quarter performance.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

 

[Topkent]

s**t stat, we don't rank in the top metric for beating good teams which you need in September

 

[Daemon]

Interesting stats but doesn't pass the eye test. We play a terrible brand of football and can't beat good teams.

 

[schmuttt]

The more I follow footy the more I realise just how misleading stats can be.

 

[Toump Ass]

Really hope the coaches aren't putting too much weight on stuff like this. I use numbers at work too sometimes, they're rubbish.

Eye test tells me we're playing like a bunch of campaigners at the moment, that's the metric right there.

 

[Tulip]

playing like a bunch of campaigners at the moment,

There needs to be an excel formula to determine this

 

[DemonZombie_001]

They need to sort out the accuracy issue. The Collingwood game should have been a big win and around a 20 point win against Geelong even coming off the cursed bye.

I can barely remember the Essendon game, maybe I was away and missed it, but Fremantle was awful and the lowest point for me. I think they emptied the tank the previous week playing Port Adelaide though.

And the Lions loss was just weird that should have been a 40+ belting, but they also did Collingwood who might have had accuracy issues that night themselves.

I am not panicking yet but I am hoping the team settles in these last rounds and becomes more composed.

 

[melbun]

As Melbourne roll through their forward options could I make the point that our insane selectors will probably cycle through the options that have been tried and failed.

Brown and Melksham come on down!