You don't remember Buckley's comments before the trade going through? something along the lines of Freeman's problems not being Collingwood and suggesting that they will follow him. The stories coming out about Freeman being unhappy with Collingwood's management. It was obviously an untenable situation, he was leaving Collingwood one way or another.
As for the draft pick, the obvious answer to your insultingly facetious hypothetical is zero. If we had a crystal ball and knew who we were going to pick I could ask you how many games that players has played at any level this year, the answer is probably more than 1. At this stage we are dealing with a player who has not been able to get onto the park in any meaningful way for his first three seasons. The chances of a top 10 pick becoming a premiership quality player is no given, but I would agree that it is more likely than a pick in the mid 20's. The chances of a top 10 pick who hasn't put together a solid month of football since being drafted is probably significantly less likely than a second round pick.
As for the moneyball reference, it would seem to me that the club thought they had found some damaged goods, that if they were able to fix, would see them get a quality player for a far cheaper price than it would usually cost. I have no issues with taking a risk, I don't mind holding onto a list spot for a player of Freeman's potential... the issue is we paid the seller's price when there were a lot of factors which would usually tip things in the buyers favour.
I love the way we have been building our list, but last season's trade week was the first time in a few years that I thought we under performed at the trade table.