As a fanatical North supporter I must admit I really love watching the Eagles play. They have always been a tough side and hard at it which reminds me alot of the shinboners. I am really looking forward to this game.
I don't think alot of 'experts' give our team the credit they deserve, and that has probably rubbed off on supporters of opposition teams and even some of our supporters.
As much as I was awed at the Eagles performance against Brisbane last round it is not a level of performance that is maintained by teams. They were red hot and probably would of beaten any team that has gone around in the last decade at their prime on that day, they were just unstoppable.
If the eagles play like that against us then we wont kick enough goals to get remotely close to winning. I expect the eagles to play well, but not as good as last round.
I think Eagles have to be the favourite given recent form, given its a home game and that is probably worth a good 5 goal head start. In summary, we will have to be at least 5 goals better on the day to get over the line and that is a tough ask, an extremely difficult task it its a very warm day on Sunday.
Alot will depend on the first quarter I think. We are slow off the blocks and play our best football in the second and third quarters. Our last quarters have been up and down, but they have been excellent the last month.
If we can keep pace with West Coast early then we will have a chance. We will need scoreboard pressure so will need to make the most of opportunities we have and convert those easy goals we tend to miss alot.
West Coast averages slightly more clearances than us but we average more tackles. It is a testament to our midfield that we get as many clearances with Porter playing most of the season as our number one ruckman.
Laidley will want to put the defensive pressure on early and hopefully keep the game to a low scoring affair. Unfortunately, that is not our strong point but our team has played pretty consistantly and solidly over the last four rounds.
The last two rounds we have come up against both a Tigers and Bombers outfit with their backs to the wall and desperate for a win, it was a good effort to get over those games where the pressure was on for four quarters and where we had to fight from behind to come home with the points.
Our strong point potentially has been our midfield but the eagles is as good as ours, they have the benefit of being younger and quicker but ours is both experiences and that they have played alot of football with eachother over the years.
I doubt Burton will play so the rucking contests will be one-dimensional. If its going to be like the last month then Porter/Brown will look to make body contact with Gardiner and put his ruck work off without actually winning a contest and our midfielders will read the ruckwork off Gardiner.
We are being smashed in ruck contests week in and week out without Burton but our midfielders are experienced enough to know what to do. Over the last month we have had 42, 40, 40 and 44 clearances and West Coast has had 45, 45, 34 and 35.
Effective tackles over the same period have been 53, 52, 48 and 54 for us and 35, 39, 38 and 47 by West Coast. If we can maintain that type of pressure we are definitely a chance, but it wont be easy over in Perth. We haven't played all that well in our interstate games this year.
Our potential trump card is going to be the forward line. Assuming Rocca, Morrel and Petrie all play and go forward then Sav will draw the number one defender. That may sound stupid considering how well Petrie is playing but if Sav gets a lesser forward he is capable of kicking a large number of goals, even if not 100% fit. Petrie wont do the same type of damage as he will get alot of his possession outside of effective scoring range.
Petrie is by far our best forward, has been for this year and last but he is extremely difficult to man up on. Being 197cm and over 100kg with great hands, good speed and the ability to get high off the ground he plays very well for a 21 year old kid. I think West Coast will look to crowd the room he has to lead into and make it difficult for him.
West Coast defenders are very good when the ball hits the ground, at times excellent and very damaging as their skill level is fantastic. Morrell will probably get the third best defender and could be damaging if he decides to lead and present himself but he tends to be like my shower and run hot and cold, last round he was cold so who knows what he will do this week. He might be fired up returning home to WA and may put in a bit harder.
Judd, Kerr, Fletcher and Cousins are the backbone of this Eagles team as they have accumulated 61, 58, 68 and 60 clearances this year. They have been very damaging this year but the Eagles have a high dependancy on these players as just those four represent 53% of the team's total clearances.
In the games where the Eagles lost/drew or were pushed these players did not accumulate anywhere near their average as the opposition put on alot of pressure in terms of tackles. A key for us to upse the Eagles at home will be to put these four under alot of pressure. Easier said than done though.
I hope this game is a close one, eagles are playing well and the real danger is if they get a run-on early in the first quarter and they pile on a large lead. We have been vulnerable this year to teams that have been able to pile on a large number of goals in a short period of time and the Eagles are good at that.
Eagles should play a short forward line against us, we do not have the small players that are able to play defensively at all, Sinclair does at times, but our other pocket in Makepeace is hopeless and has been carved to pieces by Matera on more times than i care to remember. Even if Matera doesn't play, Eagles have alot of players that can play that role. We will conceed more goals to midfielders and running players than we will to key forwards.
Good luck folks, I hope the game is enjoyable for both teams, it should be played in good spirit as I think there is a good level of respect for eachother over the years.