Our First Finals Opponent?

[Snag Breac]

Not wishing to preempt matters, but if we finish 3rd on the ladder, which team would we play first in finals, assuming this is the order of the final eight?

Geelong
St. Kilda
Collingwood
Bulldogs
Fremantle
Hawthorne
Carlton
Sydney

Btw, I still think we can come second.

 

[medhurstISGOD]

St Kilda.

 

[Snag Breac]

St Kilda.

Bum! I thought we got to play one of the lower sides?

 

[mattys123]

Bum! I thought we got to play one of the lower sides?

Best to look at this for a finals breakdown;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AFL_finals_system#How_it_works

Basically, 1st plays 4th, 2nd plays 3rd and the rest really don't matter as only one side has ever won a GF outside of the top 4.

 

[TradeDraft]

Be Saints or Cats - Unless we finish on top of the Ladder then I think we would play Freo or Hawks

 

[Old Spice]

Dream scenario would be to end up thus:

Collingwood
Geelong
St Kilda
Fremantle
Hawthorn
Bulldogs
Carlton
Sydney

We beat Freo in 1st QF
Saints beat Cats in 2nd QF
Hawks beat Sydney in 1st EF
Bulldogs beat Carlton 2nd EF

Cats beat Dogs in 1st SF
Freo beat Hawks in 2nd SF

We beat Cats in 1st PF
Saints beat Freo in 2nd PF

Pies beat Saints in GF

 

[Dawson]

Be Saints or Cats - Unless we finish on top of the Ladder then I think we would play Freo or Hawks

Umm .... no, on the scenario put by Snag, it would be St Kilda

 

[TradeDraft]

Dream scenario would be to end up thus:

Collingwood
Geelong
St Kilda
Fremantle
Hawthorn
Bulldogs
Carlton
Sydney

We beat Freo in 1st QF
Saints beat Cats in 2nd QF
Hawks beat Sydney in 1st EF
Bulldogs beat Carlton 2nd EF

Cats beat Hawks in 1st SF
Freo beat Bulldogs in 2nd SF

We beat Freo in 1st PF
Cats beat Saints in 2nd PF

Pies beat Geelong in GF.

How can we beat Freo in QF and PF?

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

How long have you been weatching football and you don't know how the top 8 works?

Really?

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Dream scenario would be to end up thus:

Collingwood
Geelong
St Kilda
Fremantle
Hawthorn
Bulldogs
Carlton
Sydney

We beat Freo in 1st QF
Saints beat Cats in 2nd QF
Hawks beat Sydney in 1st EF
Bulldogs beat Carlton 2nd EF

Cats beat Hawks in 1st SF
Freo beat Bulldogs in 2nd SF

We beat Freo in 1st PF
Cats beat Saints in 2nd PF

Pies beat Geelong in GF.

You got that wrong.

We'd be playing Geelong in the Prelim, and IF we can beat them, we'd hope Freo take out St.Kilda in the other one.

Then we play Freo in the Granny.

 

[Old Spice]

Forgot to cross over. Doh!

 

[pongo_3931]

It looks very likely that we will be playing either Geelong or St Kilda in the first round. Although this poses as our biggest challenge (having been shalacked by both in last years finals) it could prove to be one of our biggest boons should we win.

Doing so would likely force our prime contenders for the cup to compete in a prelim ensuring one is knocked out.

In most machinations it looks likely that we will have to play and beat both st kilda and geelong to win a flag. My predicted ladder is as follows, bearing in mind, freo could be lower, I'm just not sure how much Barlows injury will hurt them:

Geelong
St Kilda
Freo
Collingwood

Bulldogs
Carlton
Hawthorn
North


Most likely outcome IMO: We lose to Geelong, then beat the Bulldogs and then lose to St Kilda

A possible outcome which is very favourable to us: We lose to Geelong, Beat the Bulldogs and beat St Kilda. Freo loses to St Kilda, beats Hawthorn and beats Geelong (which they definitely have the ability to do). This sees us against Freo in a Granny.


For reference the finals plays out as follows:

 

[Tarkyn_24]

In a season like this, I actually think it's more favourable to finish second or third than first.

This season I believe has three very real challengers, with perhaps the next three or four ranking as smokies down. I'd prefer not to finish top, because finishing second/third gives us two bites at the cherry - the cherry being, the other two top three sides. Assuming we won our semi, we'd only have to win one of these two games to almost certainly play in the Grand Final.

Compare that to first, who (should) comfortably account for their QF opponent. They then get the week off and (should) come up against 2nd/3rd. This makes that game virtually an elimination final. Top makes one mistake, they're out. Second or third makes one mistake, and they're rewarded with another bite at the apple two weeks later. Factoring out fatigue (which, with our depth, is only a minor issue) and it's more advantageous to finish second or third. Thoughts?

 

[wicksy]

In a season like this, I actually think it's more favourable to finish second or third than first.

This season I believe has three very real challengers, with perhaps the next three or four ranking as smokies down. I'd prefer not to finish top, because finishing second/third gives us two bites at the cherry - the cherry being, the other two top three sides. Assuming we won our semi, we'd only have to win one of these two games to almost certainly play in the Grand Final.

Compare that to first, who (should) comfortably account for their QF opponent. They then get the week off and (should) come up against 2nd/3rd. This makes that game virtually an elimination final. Top makes one mistake, they're out. Second or third makes one mistake, and they're rewarded with another bite at the apple two weeks later. Factoring out fatigue (which, with our depth, is only a minor issue) and it's more advantageous to finish second or third. Thoughts?

Ummm WHAT? This makes no sense at all!!

Regardless whether you finished first, second, third or fourth, you are guaranteed two 'bites of the apple' as you put it.

I don't see another way you could look at it!

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Ummm WHAT? This makes no sense at all!!

Regardless whether you finished first, second, third or fourth, you are guaranteed two 'bites of the apple' as you put it.

I don't see another way you could look at it!

The difference being the loser of second and third plays top quality teams twice . The winner of second and third gets only one match, in which they had a double chance if they lost anyway. First only gets the opportunity once, in what is an elimination match.

Working under the assumption the top three teams are considered "contenders" and those below "smokies -> no chance"

I'm talking in terms of the timing of the matches. Not in the context of actual double chances.

 

[jefffff34]

I had the Bulldogs finishing fourth on my ladder predictor.

 

[wicksy]

The difference being the loser of second and third plays top quality teams twice . The winner of second and third gets only one match, in which they had a double chance if they lost anyway. First only gets the opportunity once, in what is an elimination match.

Working under the assumption the top three teams are considered "contenders" and those below "smokies -> no chance"

I'm talking in terms of the timing of the matches. Not in the context of actual double chances.

Come on mate... It's Friday afternoon!!
That is just way too confusing........

 

[mattys123]

Fremantle won't beat StKilda or Geelong in a final, even if it's played on the moon, so no need to worry about Freo playing us in the GF.

My ideal draw would be pies finish 1st, beat Freo or Dogs, then have to beat the loser of the StKilda/Geelong final who would win their semi easy, and meet us in the prelim.

So;

Week 1

Pies (1st) vs Freo/Dogs (4th)
Stkilda (2nd) vs Geelong (3rd)

Week 2

Freo vs random (Freo win)
Stkilda/Geelong vs random (StKilda/Geelong win)

Week 3

Collingwood vs Stkilda/Geelong
Geelong/Stkilda vs Freo

GF;

Collingwood vs Geelong.

Bring it on.

We will most likely have to beat both StKilda and Geelong, I guess that's what I'm getting at, so better off having a softer first round game and a week off before 2 weeks of ultimate competition.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Best situation by me;

1st Geelong def Fremantle 4th
2nd/3rd Collingwood def 3rd/2nd St Kilda

<Other games are irrelevant>

SF1 - Fremantle v Bulldogs/Hawthorn/Carlton etc.
SF2 - St Kilda def whoever they play

Collingwood def Winner SF1
Geelong and St Kilda play a tough match.

Collingwood def Geelong/St Kilda

 

[Collingwould]

Best situation by me;

1st Geelong def Fremantle 4th
2nd/3rd Collingwood def 3rd/2nd St Kilda

<Other games are irrelevant>

SF1 - Fremantle v Bulldogs/Hawthorn/Carlton etc.
SF2 - St Kilda def whoever they play

Collingwood def Winner SF1
Geelong and St Kilda play a tough match.

Collingwood def Geelong/St Kilda

nicely played sir

I am now on this bandwagon

 

[PieLebo87]

How can we beat Freo in QF and PF?

Top four get a double chance, Dave. If we lose a QF, we have to play a Semi against one of the two winners from 5th-8th. Otherwise we're straight through to a Prelim.

Snag, we're almost 90% certain to play St Kilda in our first week of finals, unless theres a dramatic change in Geelong's form during the H&A. We're also almost 90% certain to finish either 2nd or 3rd, with St Kilda taking the other spot. Freo or Hawks will get 4th.

My calculator had Hawks vying for 4th in Round 22, so I'm not looking forward to Round 22.

Theres just no way of knowing how 4th through to 8th will finish in a couple of months time, so theres no point trying to figure out how the Elimination Finals and Semi Finals will go.

Best situation by me;

1st Geelong def Fremantle 4th
2nd/3rd Collingwood def 3rd/2nd St Kilda

<Other games are irrelevant>

SF1 - Fremantle v Bulldogs/Hawthorn/Carlton etc.
SF2 - St Kilda def whoever they play

Collingwood def Winner SF1
Geelong and St Kilda play a tough match.

Collingwood def Geelong/St Kilda

In short, Tarks has the best scenario for us, and honestly? The most realistic. If this was to occur, then we were destined to win the 2010 flag.

 

[Football God]

My opinion, i reckon top 4 will be .
st.kilda
collingwood
geelong
fremantle

hopefully we can get up on cats and hawks knock them out 2nd round of the finals

 

[Snag Breac]

How long have you been weatching football and you don't know how the top 8 works?

Really?

Lol! You sound like my mother.

April 2006, but I haven't always been paying attention. Sorry Ma.

Ok, St Kilda it is. No worries mates.

 

[lgarth80]

Best situation by me;

1st Geelong def Fremantle 4th
2nd/3rd Collingwood def 3rd/2nd St Kilda

<Other games are irrelevant>

SF1 - Fremantle v Bulldogs/Hawthorn/Carlton etc.
SF2 - St Kilda def whoever they play

Collingwood def Winner SF1
Geelong and St Kilda play a tough match.

Collingwood def Geelong/St Kilda

Yes that's the only likely scenario that we can win a premiership.
Beat Saints or Cats week 1 of finals. Critical.
Then hope that the Saints/Cats other game they win week 1 of finals. Critical (it was Port who stuffed that up majorly in 2003 costing us a real run at the flag).

Win after a week's rest against a Bulldogs/Freo. Not a simple game but we have the ability to win in a fairly easy fashion.

Then play a GF hopefully after the most physical gut busting and suspension generating Prelim of all time.

Otherwise, not a great chance lads to even make the GF, it's Saints and Cats move along, nothing to see here.

But yeah Round 23 is the real one we have to be preparing for. Get ourselves playing one of the current top 2 at absolutely full strength and leave nothing in the kit bag or on the park. Completely smash that game to bits!

 

[Syphoncom]

Wow, this thread just reminded me I had a dream we beat Geelong by... we were up by 86 points I think, although the game hadn't ended (it reminded me, in dream, of the previous belting we gave them). And Beams kicked 5 goals. I thought it was Swan kicking it from where I was sitting, but obviously it couldn't have been Swan kicking goals, and then confirmed it was Beams.

So if that happens in 3 weeks, I'm gonna freak out.

Edit: Actually it was a day game, so could be the gf. Would prefer that anyway.