Our Premiership team 5 years from now

[Marstermind]

The most recent example of a team totally bottoming out - aka being utter utter utter turds - and winning a flag with some of the same players is Melbourne. Five years before that flag they finished 11th, won 10 games and had a % of 97. They had Brayshaw, Gawn, Viney, Harmes, McDonald, Petracca, Neal-Bullen, Oliver and Salem in 2016 - 9 premiership players.

We're 17th, 2 wins, 65%. The idea of us winning a flag in 5 years is fanciful. So is reckoning that we have any more than 3 or 4 NMFC premiership players currently on our list.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

It would also mean that once a player reaches the age of say 29, they would automatically be taken off this team sheet because in more cases than not, it's unrealistic to expect them to be the same player at the age of 34.

There are of course exceptions to this rule but they would just be treated as a bonus.

You could even make the case that 28 should be the cut off.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

The most recent example of a team totally bottoming out - aka being utter utter utter turds - and winning a flag with some of the same players is Melbourne. Five years before that flag they finished 11th, won 10 games and had a % of 97. They had Brayshaw, Gawn, Viney, Harmes, McDonald, Petracca, Neal-Bullen, Oliver and Salem in 2016 - 9 premiership players.

We're 17th, 2 wins, 65%. The idea of us winning a flag in 5 years is fanciful. So is reckoning that we have any more than 3 or 4 NMFC premiership players currently on our list.

Exactly why you have to take a pretty ruthless approach to this exercise. But as you gradually start to improve, an extra few players might make their way onto the sheet. In the end, when you get to the point where you're challenging for a top 4 spot, you should only have about 3 or 4 spots left.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

After more thought, i've taken Phillips and Goater off my team sheet for now.

Leaves me with 10 current players and 12 spots to be filled.

 

[Ischenko]

Bonar Logue Archer
Goater ??? Bergman
Scott LDU Ford
Stevo Comben TT
Sheezel Larkey Zurharr
Xerri Phillips Wardlaw
Powell Simpkin Curtis Taylor

5

Curtis Taylor

Age

24

Ht

188cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

6.0

1star

K

3.0

1star

HB

3.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.0

1star

No current season stats available

D

6.0

2star

K

3.0

1star

HB

3.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.0

1star

E: Harvey, CCJ, Tucker, McDonald

Easy, just find a CHB and get the rest of them fit as * and believing

 

[Lomas]

Bonar Logue Archer
Goater ??? Bergman
Scott LDU Ford
Stevo Comben TT
Sheezel Larkey Zurharr
Xerri Phillips Wardlaw
Powell Simpkin Curtis Taylor

E: Harvey, CCJ, Tucker, McDonald

Easy, just find a CHB and get the rest of them for as * and believing

Careful, this is collingwoods argument against a PP.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Bonar Logue Archer
Goater ??? Bergman
Scott LDU Ford
Stevo Comben TT
Sheezel Larkey Zurharr
Xerri Phillips Wardlaw
Powell Simpkin Curtis Taylor

E: Harvey, CCJ, Tucker, McDonald

Easy, just find a CHB and get the rest of them for as * and believing

I'm going to assume you haven't read a single explanation i have written...

But i'm more hopeful you're just taking the p1ss.

 

[Ischenko]

I'm going to assume you haven't read a single explanation i have written...

You assume correctly. However, I also don’t think we are as lacking in talent as some think. Players are players, and if you can surround half a dozen stars with a team that cracks in relentlessly, knows their role and are well coached…well that’s kinda all it takes. How close are we to this situation? I’d say it’s clear to all.

 

[Better Loosen Up]

You assume correctly. However, I also don’t think we are as lacking in talent as some think. Players are players, and if you can surround half a dozen stars with a team that cracks in relentlessly, knows their role and are well coached…well that’s kinda all it takes. How close are we to this situation? I’d say it’s clear to all.

I think there are some players on your team sheet that are more likely right now to get delisted than to take us to a final.

 

[Marstermind]

Exactly why you have to take a pretty ruthless approach to this exercise. But as you gradually start to improve, an extra few players might make their way onto the sheet. In the end, when you get to the point where you're challenging for a top 4 spot, you should only have about 3 or 4 spots left.

The flaw in the exercise is that whilst winning a premiership is the ultimate goal, right now I get a mild inner glow if we break even in a quarter. Winning a Grand Final is so far away it's barely worth considering. Forget premierships. How many am I in any degree confident will become genuinely elite, HofF type footballers? 2. Wardlaw and Sheezel. And even then, given they have played 24 games between them there's an argument that I'm going too early on that.

LDU should be at the next level. Others will be OK. That's all.

 

[ferball]

The most recent example of a team totally bottoming out - aka being utter utter utter turds - and winning a flag with some of the same players is Melbourne. Five years before that flag they finished 11th, won 10 games and had a % of 97. They had Brayshaw, Gawn, Viney, Harmes, McDonald, Petracca, Neal-Bullen, Oliver and Salem in 2016 - 9 premiership players.

We're 17th, 2 wins, 65%. The idea of us winning a flag in 5 years is fanciful. So is reckoning that we have any more than 3 or 4 NMFC premiership players currently on our list.

They also finished 17th two years before they won that flag.

 

[Marstermind]

They also finished 17th two years before they won that flag.

And played in a Preliminary a year before that.

 

[zoomba23]

I'm not sure how you can have players on this list that haven't even been able to hold down a spot in a bottom side to this point.

This would require astronomical development over the next few years.

Reality says we're not that close at all.

You should bear in mind that, since Bard's sacking, eight or nine players at absolute most have seen an upward trajectory in their development. Eight or nine. In four years. That's not a normal figure for a football club.

If the coaches and footy personnel can unearth the broken elements at Arden St (and no, another 11 man list clean out isn't the ******* answer, it'll just perpetuate the cycle) and get it right this time, a lot of Nylex's suggestions won't be too far off, you'd think. Regardless of the holes in our key position stocks and genuine outside run, our onfield results bely the talent we have.

---

 

[Uncle_Leo]

10 years if we are lucky

Hopefully Harry and George still there

Forget about the rest

 

[bennymate]

In 5 years we'll finish 15th.

 

[Gasometer]

Ff- ? Larkey ?
Hf - ? ? ?
C- ? Jy ?
HB- ? ? Scott
Fb- ? ? ?

Followers - ? Sheez Wardlaw

Bench - ? ? ? Harvey

7

Trade and delist the rest now

Plus one

8

LDU!

 

[ferball]

And played in a Preliminary a year before that.

Yeah true, they were probably tanking.

We finished last in 1972 and played in a GF by 74 and won one by 75. The Swans have had similar turn arounds from shitness. Lions went from the bottom of the ladder to almost the top four in two years (2017 - 2019).

The reality is there's FA seperating the range of teams from 15th - 5th in general every season. The bottom third to the top third anyway. That's teams playing competent footy. Once you're in that group you need to nail your system and your injury toll (or have great depth) and you're competing. Putting time lines on all that isn't necessarily helpful or useless for that matter.

Its not easy but it does happen. Just needs focus, stability and commitment across the club. We've really only got one of things right now, the last one.

 

[Marstermind]

Yeah true, they were probably tanking.

We finished last in 1972 and played in a GF by 74 and won one by 75. The Swans have had similar turn arounds from shitness. Lions went from the bottom of the ladder to almost the top four in two years (2017 - 2019).

The reality is there's FA seperating the range of teams from 15th - 5th in general every season. The bottom third to the top third anyway. That's teams playing competent footy. Once you're in that group you need to nail your system and your injury toll (or have great depth) and you're competing. Putting time lines on all that isn't necessarily helpful or useless for that matter.

Its not easy but it does happen. Just needs focus, stability and commitment across the club. We've really only got one of things right now, the last one.

Sorry to be the doomsayer, but examples from the 70s, and citing AFL backed franchises aren't a real comparison - although the Lions did suddenly seem to click in 2019 and have maintained that level. And I do agree that the gap between 6th to 16th isn't huge and once we're in that zone, we may move through it quickly. The problem is we aren't in there and as the weekend indicated, we're miles off it.

The players who can lead our development will come, but so much more needs to change within the club and its football department that just finding better players is but a small part of it. They need to come to an elite, professional environment where fierce competitive standards and expectations of improvement are just a given. If they don't, they'll either fall into the malaise that many of our players have over a long time, they'll fall out of the system or they'll find somewhere else to succeed.

So whilst talking about premierships, and which current players may play in one, is a kind of fun party game, it's kind of redundant until Clarko, Ratts, Sonja, Todd et al embed the sort of culture whereby players demand growth, belief is strong, standards are high and honesty calls out those who fall short. It's not that club now and that takes time. The positive from Sunday is that the backlash from the media and supporters has been more than "just another s**t North game" and that hopefully emboldens those in power to make the necessary changes.

 

[ferball]

Sorry to be the doomsayer, but examples from the 70s, and citing AFL backed franchises aren't a real comparison - although the Lions did suddenly seem to click in 2019 and have maintained that level. And I do agree that the gap between 6th to 16th isn't huge and once we're in that zone, we may move through it quickly. The problem is we aren't in there and as the weekend indicated, we're miles off it.

The players who can lead our development will come, but so much more needs to change within the club and its football department that just finding better players is but a small part of it. They need to come to an elite, professional environment where fierce competitive standards and expectations of improvement are just a given. If they don't, they'll either fall into the malaise that many of our players have over a long time, they'll fall out of the system or they'll find somewhere else to succeed.

So whilst talking about premierships, and which current players may play in one, is a kind of fun party game, it's kind of redundant until Clarko, Ratts, Sonja, Todd et al embed the sort of culture whereby players demand growth, belief is strong, standards are high and honesty calls out those who fall short. It's not that club now and that takes time. The positive from Sunday is that the backlash from the media and supporters has been more than "just another s**t North game" and that hopefully emboldens those in power to make the necessary changes.

I completely agree but I think that can happen very quickly and if it does we have enough talent under 26 to rise up the ladder if it does. Even Zurhaar, who was the epitome of a player coasting along enjoying the AFL lifestyle looked to have bought in under Clarko. So I think its closer than it seems right now but all these disruptions make it harder to see.

 

[Passmore]

One of our next premiership team...


View attachment 1742748

Congrats

Sent from my SM-A908B using Tapatalk

 

[Passmore]

Players 25 and under who appear self motivated enough to get the best out of themselves physically.....

Simpkin
LDU
Scott
Sheezel
Wardlaw
Larkey
Phillips
Sanders (I'm already including him)

Zurhaar?
Logue?
Thomas?

Fingers crossed as they look to have the ability...
Goater
Curtis
Bergman
Powell
Comben
Ford
George

Sent from my SM-A908B using Tapatalk

 

[The acurate one]

Players 25 and under who appear self motivated enough to get the best out of themselves physically.....

Simpkin
LDU
Scott
Sheezel
Wardlaw
Larkey
Phillips
Sanders (I'm already including him)

Zurhaar?
Logue?
Thomas?

Fingers crossed as they look to have the ability...
Goater
Curtis
Bergman
Powell
Comben
Ford
George

Sent from my SM-A908B using Tapatalk

About right 17 players I think there’s a few more that aren’t good enough, but could keep their spots.

Turner JZ and Cunners all going changes it up a bit

 

[zoomba23]

Players 25 and under who appear self motivated enough to get the best out of themselves physically.....

Simpkin
LDU
Scott
Sheezel
Wardlaw
Larkey
Phillips
Sanders (I'm already including him)

Zurhaar?
Logue?
Thomas?

Fingers crossed as they look to have the ability...
Goater
Curtis
Bergman
Powell
Comben
Ford
George

Sent from my SM-A908B using Tapatalk

I'd put Archer in the first group. May not make it of course but the only reason he hasn't played the whole season is because he overworked himself during preseason

 

[SunnyBoner]

So hard to tell what we will look like when our cup is finally aloft. We'll have access to some great new hight end talent again this year but i can't help think the key to our success will be the talented trades we bring in to replace our veterans (Goldy, Cunners and Jack) along with the 26 plus year olds who we have failed to recruit/retain on our list.

If we get the rights ones come trade time them we fast track quickly. I think our list would improve significantly with key players like Grundy, Gresham, Hunter Clark

11

Hunter Clark

Age

25

Ht

186cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.5

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

8.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.3

3star

D

16.0

4star

K

9.6

4star

HB

6.4

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.9

4star

D

13.2

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.0

1star

and Himmelberg and/or Barrass.

 

[hoffseason gains]

Archer / Goater / George / Phillips / Ford / Powell / Bergman / Harvey / Hansen Jr. / Wardlaw / Sheezel / Comben / Curtis - need to see what they look like after 50-70 games, half might not get there, half seem like they will easily, all have some high-level afl traits.

Zurhaar / Stephenson / LDU / Zurhaar / Larkey / Simpkin / McKay / Logue / McDonald / Scott / Thomas - should be reaching that 100 game mark soon if not already, how many are consistently good enough at AFL level at playing winning football, I’m not sure enough of them are at that level yet, will they ever?

Then once some of these players become consistent AFL level contributors and even stars, are they the right mix to play a good enough brand to play finals? who knows, right now they make up one of the worst teams in the AFL.

Is it because they’re young or because they’re bad?

I’d hope 10 can be in the future premiership team, but I’d say maybe 5.