Peaking players and bottoming out players

[Crows88]

I know its terrible, after this week I am planning to use 6 trades in 3 weeks....They will all be upgrading cahs cows to guns...

I believe Hill is within 1-2 weeks away of bottoming out, I think Rioli will be a keeper for a while definately.

 

[Rise_up_Stiffy]

Hill is not bottoming out, his price is rising.

 

[nooB]

Hill is not bottoming out, his price is rising.

Speaking of Hill, how much longer do people plan to keep him? People were singing the kid's praises a few weeks ago saying he might hit 400k.... I seriously dont see it happening.

 

[The Special 1]

Speaking of Hill, how much longer do people plan to keep him? People were singing the kid's praises a few weeks ago saying he might hit 400k.... I seriously dont see it happening.

just because he got a 50 odd score last round, doesnt mean he wont he hit 400, he had 3 consecutive 90 point games, now 2 of them dont count for anything in his braket for pricing, but his breakeven is still a negative. so i think the way his going he will climb close to 400k with a few more 80+ point games. remember the values of players this yr has changed. last yr if u scored 90-100ppg u would be around 300-400, now its more like 350-450.

 

[Deledio2Conca]

Which site has the right breakeven scores? Because DT Talk and Fanfooty are giving out different numbers.

 

[BartBart]

Which site has the right breakeven scores? Because DT Talk and Fanfooty are giving out different numbers.

Yeah - got another site altogether and get different BE scores. Although similar enough for a guide I guess.

 

[DTHitman]

Gram > Waters

 

[Kid A]

just because he got a 50 odd score last round, doesnt mean he wont he hit 400, he had 3 consecutive 90 point games, now 2 of them dont count for anything in his braket for pricing, but his breakeven is still a negative. so i think the way his going he will climb close to 400k with a few more 80+ point games. remember the values of players this yr has changed. last yr if u scored 90-100ppg u would be around 300-400, now its more like 350-450.

He won't hit 400 that easily. By my calculations, if Hill scores 70 each week from here, his price will rise -- 243, 251, 263.

If he scores 80 each week, 246, 261, 280, 295.

The rolling averages make for slow rises.

Looking at Bradshaw, he'll go from 255 to 293 with an 80, 290 with a 70 and 297 with a 90. So look for a 35-40 k rise. That's handy. I'd like to pick him up, upgrading Nicoski to him, but that would mean spending 55,000 of my current 97,000 in hand. That would leave me with 42,000. I'll spend about 5-10K upgrading from Hall to Jono Brown next week, leaving me with 35,000 to upgrade someone to Riewoldt next week.

If Riewoldt scores 100 he'll go down to around 380,000 this week. It's unlikely Deledio would rise to 345,000 this week, considering his BE. I don't want to upgrade Didak just yet. Ah, dilemmas, dilemmas.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Fanfooty has alot wrong but i love the site and it is brillant with so much info. Breakevens are well off and also the prices. They say they are usually within 1 k or even 500$ but they are 4-5k out on about 30%. C.Judd is only 368k but they had him as 372k and also they reckon his BE is 35 for next round in which he has avg 114.5 in last 2 weeks.

With an avg of 114.5 and being only 368k then surely his BE would be far less.

And also Hill is 217k and if he scores another 45 - 60 score than his BE will be about that the next week. I might be missing something but if he scores 55 in round 5 his avg for the past 2 weeks would be 55. His price would be about 245k and with an avg of 55 then surely if he scores another 50 in round 6 then his Price wouldnt change much and if it did would only increase by anoth 5-10k

 

[Kid A]

I think the best thing to do would be to let Nicoski stay--he's going to rise from his sub-200K price unless he isn't named (in which case he goes). Also thinking of trading in Wona for him...but that'll definitely necessitate another trade along the way. Trading in Bradshaw could be a keeper, or it could backfire, and as discussed above I probably wouldn't have the funds to upgrade Deledio to Riewoldt then. I think keeping in Nico would be the best bet, and sub in Proud if he's not playing.
Your thoughts?

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

If Bradshaw scores 80,70 than 90 in rounds 5,6,7 then his last 3 scores will give an avg of 80. An average of 80 thats worth alot more than a 297k player

 

[Kid A]

No, those were his scores for rd 5 - 80 or 70 or 90.

If he scored 80, 70 and 90 his three successive prices would be around 292, 307, 315.

An average of 80 is worth about 330K but rolling averages are slow to reach the real worth--especially for someone whose price starts out low.

 

[fjm9]

He won't hit 400 that easily. By my calculations, if Hill scores 70 each week from here, his price will rise -- 243, 251, 263.

If he scores 80 each week, 246, 261, 280, 295.

The rolling averages make for slow rises.

Looking at Bradshaw, he'll go from 255 to 293 with an 80, 290 with a 70 and 297 with a 90. So look for a 35-40 k rise. That's handy. I'd like to pick him up, upgrading Nicoski to him, but that would mean spending 55,000 of my current 97,000 in hand. That would leave me with 42,000. I'll spend about 5-10K upgrading from Hall to Jono Brown next week, leaving me with 35,000 to upgrade someone to Riewoldt next week.

If Riewoldt scores 100 he'll go down to around 380,000 this week. It's unlikely Deledio would rise to 345,000 this week, considering his BE. I don't want to upgrade Didak just yet. Ah, dilemmas, dilemmas.

Pretty much exact same situation as you atm except swap Nicoksi for Barlow. We have the same amount of money in the bank and both have Hall. This week I'll do Hall to ROK only because I already have BJ, Brown and Riewoldt.
Though with the remaining money I can also do the Barlow to Bradshaw trade. If he could rise to 330 I could effectively just do a straight swap for hopefully Goddard. Or I could just keep Barlow and in 3 weeks time just upgrade him with a cash cow. Leaning towards the latter.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

I think the best thing to do would be to let Nicoski stay--he's going to rise from his sub-200K price unless he isn't named (in which case he goes). Also thinking of trading in Wona for him...but that'll definitely necessitate another trade along the way. Trading in Bradshaw could be a keeper, or it could backfire, and as discussed above I probably wouldn't have the funds to upgrade Deledio to Riewoldt then. I think keeping in Nico would be the best bet, and sub in Proud if he's not playing.
Your thoughts?

Your right up there this year arnt you??

I would get rid of Nicoski but wouldnt bother about Bradshaw. Bradshaw is on fire but to me he isnt even a keeper IMO. I choose my top 10 backs or forwards and try to get as many of them as possible. Bradshaw wouldnt be in the top 10 backs and if you trade Nico to Bradshaw then you may need to trade Bradshaw for example to Goddard or P.Burgoyne.

Do you know how to work at players values the following week if you predict there score ? is there a formulas and if so can u give me an example of how to use it

 

[54Dogs]

My 2 bobs worth on a few of these trade ideas.

Hill should reach around 260K in 2 weeks time after which the Dogs head to Sydney. I would either dump him before the Swans game or you may need to hold him for a further 5-6 weeks as the Swans score is likely to impact on him. I would see his price maximum at around 300K by mid year but should taper in the back end as most rookies do.

Next week is the one for those wanting Volt / BJ.

Nicoski, I would go down to Aussie, talk on the Melbourne board is he looks good and should be in for the next 6 weeks should make about 120K.
Basically he looks like scoring the same as Nicoski and getting to his price at 120K cheaper. I will be making the same move this week with Hurn.

 

[Kid A]

I'm doing well this year, 59 overall but I didn't do that well last year.

Thanks for the advice. Who would you get rid of for Nico then? I'm happy to spend up to 240K on any back but I really don't see any good prospects. Wona will make money but then I'll have Wona/Proud/Scott DT as my last three backs and that could leave me without emergencies some rounds.

I don't know the 'exact' DT formula but it's basically 3/4 * last round's price (or starting price if they haven't played 3 games this season) + 1/4 * average of last three games. I'm not sure if FF genie calculates new prices when you input - I just do it in Excel. I think they're accurate to within 1K or so.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

My backline went great guns this week so i dont have anyone to trade down to A.Wona. Backline consist of C.Cornes, H.Shaw, Symes, Ellis, Thornton, Birchall and H.Taylor. Besides harry they all socred 89+ with 3 100's. A.Wona is a mid aswell though and a downgrade of either N.Jones or T.Tuck to him could be on the cards.

1) T.Tuck is he injured and how many weeks are they expecting him to miss??
2) What is the formula to work out how much a player will increase or decrease in price if they get an ''X'' score
3) which are the premiums to jump on this week ?? eg Judd, Adcock, P.Burgers

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

I'm doing well this year, 59 overall but I didn't do that well last year.

Thanks for the advice. Who would you get rid of for Nico then? I'm happy to spend up to 240K on any back but I really don't see any good prospects. Wona will make money but then I'll have Wona/Proud/Scott DT as my last three backs and that could leave me without emergencies some rounds.

I don't know the 'exact' DT formula but it's basically 3/4 * last round's price (or starting price if they haven't played 3 games this season) + 1/4 * average of last three games. I'm not sure if FF genie calculates new prices when you input - I just do it in Excel. I think they're accurate to within 1K or so.

I would definatly get Wonamerri, he is lookign good and is playing well as the forward pocket similar to rioli. He will score whatever Nicoski will anyway. It will give you huge money and also then next 3 weeks there are some awsome premiums that are really cheap to get.

Im looking at doing 6 trades in the next 3 weeks hoping to have money left over with 3 real good premiums (Bowden, K.Cornes, Judd) + Priddis to come in for round 7. so an inclusion of 4 premiums in 3 weeks would be great maybe you will be thinking similar.

T.TUCK IS HE INJURED AND HOW MANY WEEKS???????????

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

All this discussion is great, but we must remember these players are premiums and b/e's of 110/120 are definitely achievable. It would certainly throw a spanner in the works if some of the mentioned players pulled out a big score this week - and it's not unreasonable to expect this either.

Some examples:

Riewoldt - b/e around 120;
Last 3 games against the Dons: 114, 133, 86
Career average against (from 7 games): 100

Chapman - b/e/ around 110;
Last 3 games against Sydney: 111, 104, 102

Kane Cornes - b/e around 120;
Last 3 games against WC: 104, 124, 75
Career average against (8 games): 89

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Ill asure you that Chappy doesnt get over 100 unless he lays 12 tackles. Riewoldt its time to get him now but with a forwrd line such as (BJ,JB,T.Cloke,Porpz,Pav,Rioli, Franklin) is there room.

Riewoldt hopefully Mcphee plays on him becoz i dont think Ryder has the capabillities yet but you never know

 

[Kid A]

Cheers, that sounds like pretty good advice.

I'd go for Adcock of those you mentioned.

 

[pillager]

Here is the formula for this year folks:

Magic Number = 4028*

Recent Market value = (Average of three most recent scores * Magic Number)

New Value of player = (Current value * 0.74) + (Recent market value * 0.26)

Break Even = ((Current Value/Magic Number) * 3) - 2 most recent scores.

*Keep in mind the magic number keeps changing week to week, so these formula's will give you a rough idea of projected values and break evens.

 

[fjm9]

My 2 bobs worth on a few of these trade ideas.

Hill should reach around 260K in 2 weeks time after which the Dogs head to Sydney. I would either dump him before the Swans game or you may need to hold him for a further 5-6 weeks as the Swans score is likely to impact on him. I would see his price maximum at around 300K by mid year but should taper in the back end as most rookies do.

Next week is the one for those wanting Volt / BJ.

Nicoski, I would go down to Aussie, talk on the Melbourne board is he looks good and should be in for the next 6 weeks should make about 120K.
Basically he looks like scoring the same as Nicoski and getting to his price at 120K cheaper. I will be making the same move this week with Hurn.

I'd love to make the same trade down to Aussie but I think having 6 rookies is a bit much, even though at times Palmer, Jack, Hill and Rioli don't play like rookies and Barlow is. This is where my team is struggling.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Riewoldt:
(81.667 x 4028) = 328953.33 (recent market value)
(New value) 404 838 = (431 500 x 0.74) + (328953.33 x 0.26)
(Breakeven) 124 = 385 500/4028 x 3 (-163) (2 most recent scores for riewoldt)

is this right but what does it tell me

 

[pillager]

Not quite right.

(New value) 404 838 = (431 500 x 0.74) + (328953.33 x 0.26)

Change 431500 to his current value of 385500 ... lets suppose Reiwoldt scores 100 next week... so that would mean three most recent scores of 59, 104, 100.

New Value = (385500 x 0.74) + (353121 x 0.26)

= 377081

I have edited my original post. You need to use the current value of the player to work out future value. In the above example if you use 124 as the most recent score it will obviously mean that he will keep his value, as it will be his B/E for the coming round.