People never seem to learn

[fightingdreamer88]

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[tribey]

How many years of front-running teams falling down does it take for people to realise that it's your finals form that counts? It is the same EVERY SINGLE YEAR!!! We drop a few pre season games and the peeps declare the season over; we drop our first H&A match and it's lights out apparently. Heck I got called a clown for insisting that we wait it out and remember it's nowhere near the business end of the season.

Geelong are the front-runners now, we're just going atm. We know for a fact our best is yet to come and even after seeing year after year of top-of-the-table dominant outfits fumbling at the crucial stages the supporters persist with writing their side off in the middle of June. It's all well to enjoy dominance in the H&A season but what is the point if no premiership is clinched at the end?

I tire of producing these topics but frankly a lot of people around here need to chill and understand there is more to footy than a patch of ten rounds. Personally I'm loving that we are slipping under the radar and frankly I feel our chance this year is greater than any other we've had under Craigy; because there's no pressure, we've nothing to lose. Anyway, down with teh Cats on teh Sundey amirite??

All well and good and I understand what you're saying, but under the current final-8 system if you don't finish top-4 you're just about shot.

Since it was implemented in 2000, no side has won the flag from outside the 4 - the lowest ranked Premiers under the new system finished 3rd at the end of the minor round (Brisbane 2003, Sydney 2005) and no side from outside the 4 has competed in the Grand Final.

So unlike when we snuck in from 5th and a heavy loss in week one back in 1998, it will be nigh on impossible to do it from 5-8 this time, regardless of how good our form is and what our playing strength might be.

 

[Sanguinarius]

We are a very good top four chance.

at this stage so are about 8 teams...

 

[jmorg1]

fightingdreamer88, the antithesis of Drummond (and pre-R2 maccas_no1).

 

[tribey]

We are a very good top four chance.

Absolutely no doubt, but my point was, the time for going through a bit of rough form has already passed us by - we're up to Round 11 now.

We pretty much have to string together a 75% winning run (say 9-2 or 8-3 at worst) from hereon in if we're to make the top-4.

We've got to hit our straps immediately.

 

[Southerntakeover]

All well and good and I understand what you're saying, but under the current final-8 system if you don't finish top-4 you're just about shot.

Since it was implemented in 2000, no side has won the flag from outside the 4 - the lowest ranked Premiers under the new system finished 3rd at the end of the minor round (Brisbane 2003, Sydney 2005) and no side from outside the 4 has competed in the Grand Final.

So unlike when we snuck in from 5th and a heavy loss in week one back in 1998, it will be nigh on impossible to do it from 5-8 this time, regardless of how good our form is and what our playing strength might be.

How often was it the case that teams from outside the four would win the premiership before hand anyway? It certainly wasnt the norm.

 

[tribey]

How often was it the case that teams from outside the four would win the premiership before hand anyway? It certainly wasnt the norm.

Since the top-8 system was introduced in 1994 (McIntyre 94-00) only two sides from outside the four have contested the Grand Final for one Premiership.

1999: North Melbourne (2) d. (6) Carlton
1998: Adelaide (5) d. (1) North Melbourne

It just seems that these days, with the top-4 contesting amongst themselves in week one - winners getting a home Prelim and the week off, and the losers falling back on a home Semi - the advantage is even greater than ever and rightly so, I might add.

Incidentally, only one 5-8 side has broken through for so much as a Prelim and that was Hawthorn (6) in 2001.

 

[-VC-]

Incidentally, only one 5-8 side has broken through for so much as a Prelim and that was Hawthorn (6) in 2001.

That's a very interesting stat!

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Incidentally, only one 5-8 side has broken through for so much as a Prelim and that was Hawthorn (6) in 2001.

I don't remember that. They must have knocked off a more fancied opponent along the way. Who was it?

 

[Southerntakeover]

Since the top-8 system was introduced in 1994 (McIntyre 94-00) only two sides from outside the four have contested the Grand Final for one Premiership.

1999: North Melbourne (2) d. (6) Carlton
1998: Adelaide (5) d. (1) North Melbourne

It just seems that these days, with the top-4 contesting amongst themselves in week one - winners getting a home Prelim and the week off, and the losers falling back on a home Semi - the advantage is even greater than ever and rightly so, I might add.

Incidentally, only one 5-8 side has broken through for so much as a Prelim and that was Hawthorn (6) in 2001.

I think this year, if the current top 4 teams were to stay then there would be a good opportunity for us to make it deep into september even if we finished 5th. With a few sides inexperienced in finals like hawthorn up there, it could be possible to get a favourable match up in the second week of the finals, particularly if the game was played at the dome where we're very good.

 

[tribey]

.

I don't remember that. They must have knocked off a more fancied opponent along the way. Who was it?

.

 

[Crow-mo]

If we beat the cats everyone will talk up a top 2 finish though so meh.

If we beat the cats you don't have to leave BF

 

[Stiffy_18]

I don't remember that. They must have knocked off a more fancied opponent along the way. Who was it?

I like

 

[tribey]

I think this year, if the current top 4 teams were to stay then there would be a good opportunity for us to make it deep into september even if we finished 5th. With a few sides inexperienced in finals like hawthorn up there, it could be possible to get a favourable match up in the second week of the finals, particularly if the game was played at the dome where we're very good.

You might have a point there, but our glut of finals experience was supposed to get us over a young and inexperienced Collingwood in 2002.

That said, you'd think we'd be better equipped than most sides who might be in that 5-8 bracket provided we have some semblance of a forward line when the time comes - that's the key.

 

[Southerntakeover]

You might have a point there, but our glut of finals experience was supposed to get us over a young and inexperienced Collingwood in 2002.

That said, you'd think we'd be better equipped than most sides who might be in that 5-8 bracket provided we have some semblance of a forward line when the time comes - that's the key.

Yeah, Collingwood did have the wood on us something chronic during that period though. Having said that, all im saying is wed have a chance from 5th, if we could draw one of the more inexperienced teams in the second round. That doesnt mean we'll win of course.

Still, if we were in form and made a late charge towards 5th, i wouldnt want to be the top four team that got us in the second round of finals. We've still got all of the elements to be a threat to anyone on any given day.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

I'm pretty sure the Kangaroos comes from 8th in 1997 to play (and lose) to St Kilda in the preliminary final.

I seem to remember them having a bit of a horror year with Carey dislocating a shoulder and missing a heap of games. They fell in to the finals but had their full strength team on the park by then and smashed the top ranked Cats in the old 1st vs 8th final in Week 1.

The week after they got to play West Coast in Melbourne due to the vagaries of the old MCG deal and won after West Coast had absolutely dominated the first three quarters. The Saints actually played a really good prelim to beat them as they had run in to some decent form.

 

[tribey]

I'm pretty sure the Kangaroos comes from 8th in 1997 to play (and lose) to St Kilda in the preliminary final.

I seem to remember them having a bit of a horror year with Carey dislocating a shoulder and missing a heap of games. They fell in to the finals but had their full strength team on the park by then and smashed the top ranked Cats in the old 1st vs 8th final in Week 1.

The week after they got to play West Coast in Melbourne due to the vagaries of the old MCG deal and won after West Coast had absolutely dominated the first three quarters. The Saints actually played a really good prelim to beat them as they had run in to some decent form.

Certainly did. Well, from 7th.

The greatest irony of them falling in with a full strength side as you say, is they got Geelong, at the MCG, on a Sunday night.

Whose home final was it?

Then, with their hard-won Finals ranking forfeited off the back of one 3-goal loss to the reigning Premier, the poor old Cats had to come here.

Stiff.

 

[tribey]

Yeah, Collingwood did have the wood on us something chronic during that period though. Having said that, all im saying is wed have a chance from 5th, if we could draw one of the more inexperienced teams in the second round. That doesnt mean we'll win of course.

Still, if we were in form and made a late charge towards 5th, i wouldnt want to be the top four team that got us in the second round of finals. We've still got all of the elements to be a threat to anyone on any given day.

You're right. All we need is a functioning forward line similar to the halcyon days of 2006 - Welsh, McGregor, Ricciuto, Perrie/Stevens/Bock - and we'll be in town in a major way.

It's just a shame that Sydney are doing it tougher than we are - would love to get them away in a big one. It's funny, had the positions been reversed last year we'd probably have played off against Freo in Melbourne.

 

[relapse]

Absolutely no doubt, but my point was, the time for going through a bit of rough form has already passed us by - we're up to Round 11 now.

We pretty much have to string together a 75% winning run (say 9-2 or 8-3 at worst) from hereon in if we're to make the top-4.

We've got to hit our straps immediately.

I think your right

Lets look at who will make the top 4

West Coast definately
Geelong Definately
Hawthorn (most probably), but they will lose games as the season progresses.

Then comes everyone else Sydney are going to stuggle to make top 4 IMO, Freo are gone IMO, Port will finish 8-10, Saints are just about gone. It really only leaves Collingwood and Essendon. Essendon IMO may finish in the 8, but not sure. Collingwood might be a top four team, but I am pretty confident the crows will get in there and I think that 14 wins and decent percentage will have you about the top four which means at least 8 wins 4 losses for the rest of the year should get us there. Keep in mind we play both Hawthorn and Geelong soon and wins there will really put us in contention. It think this year it is going to be very even and wouldnt be surprised to see possibly from 3rd-6th position all decided just on percentage.

 

[crowman_23]

Still obviously in a fair position for top 4 but agreed we mujst now start hitting a little bit of form.

Though for some reason I like our lead up to this stage a little more than last year. By this time last year they were saying hand us the flag already but obviously when we got to finals things broke down a little. I feel if we are able to hit our straps and start playing some of the footy we know we can anything can happen.

Obviously West Coast are looking very strong on top but we are more than due to beat them some time soon. If we start finding some of our 'unbeatable' form that we were in last year come finals time it could be a very enjoyable September.

Having said that I havent seen too much that would suggest that this will happen. Have had some very good wins but when ever we seem to get a run on we drop a game we shouldn't.

 

[CarnCrows]

I agree that It'll be better to get into top form later in the year, however we are almost half way through and have'nt shown too much consistant form. The next 4 games should bring the best out of us!

 

[AdelaideFan]

I don't remember that. They must have knocked off a more fancied opponent along the way. Who was it?

Must have been a hard one to swallow!!!