Analysis Pick 1: Jason Horne-Francis vs rest of the field

[Shinboner1]

l'm confused with the bidding process. If we bid on Daicos and Collingwood match it with their points what happens to their picks? Do we get them and are added onto our picks or are they just made void..

They are dissolved and teams below those picks move up accordingly

 

[ferball]

There is a chance we only go to the draft with #1 and #20. So a Daicos bid might strategically help our 2022 1st rounder if we finish higher than Collingwood next year.

But in this scenario a Daicos bid doesn't really benefit us at all this year unless we plan to live trade back in during later rounds.

As said previously the #1 mantle for the player we pick is a nice bonus but any means of improving our entire list over the next 2 years ranks higher.

If a Daicos bid means we still get JHF but also cripple one of our early pick peers in 2022 (if we don't rebound quickly) then it has to be seriously considered.

Don't we need to draft three players?

 

[buttox]

l'm confused with the bidding process. If we bid on Daicos and Collingwood match it with their points what happens to their picks? Do we get them and are added onto our picks or are they just made void..

They disappear.
Worst case for Collingwood would be we bid @ 1.
They would then cash in all there 2021 picks. + drop there 2022 r1 back the deficit. 2-5 spots.
We then get to pick again @ pick 2

 

[Roo202]

If we bid on Daicos - Pies will need 2,400 points to match the bid.
If GWS bid on Daicos - Pies will need 2,014 points to match the bid
If the Suns bid on Daicos - Pies will need 1,788 points to match the bid.

Pies currently have picks 36, 39, 41 & 45 = 502, 446, 412 & 347 = 1,707

They are in a world of pain if we bid.

It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out this year and in future years. If a team has a F/S or eligible academy player likely to draw an early bid ahead of their first pick, the MO has generally been to trade out the first and get some value. It's what we did with TT. But you are completely showing your hand, from memory, I think the Crows bid on TT a few picks higher than most expected, so we paid a little more. But once we'd traded out our 1st pick, even if the bid had come at 1 or 2, we'd almost certainly have had to match and wear the cost. (TT now looking like that would have been justified would ease the pain!)

The club bidding would need to be either happy to take the player or be 100% sure the bid would be matched, but if they have traded away their first pick, they almost always would. Sure, they could punish an early bid and not match, but then one club ends up using say, pick 2 to draft a player ranked maybe 8, but the other club misses out all together.

It will always be a case by case situation, but I wonder if this year may lead to more clubs holding on to their first pick to keep any bidders honest. If the Pies still had 2, they would have been in an amazing position. We could have only bid on Daicos if that was who we genuinely wanted, because a bid would be basically handing pick 1 to the Pies, match if you want Daicos, if they rated JHF higher, don't match and take JHF at 2. Even better for them, we take JHF at 1, they get a free hit at 2 and then match whenever the Daicos bid comes, such a shame they won't have that opportunity!

This is more a general interest in the tactics and strategies around the draft, so having said all of that, this year, I just hope we do whatever is best for us!

 

[King Corey]

Don't we need to draft three players?

Need to check this out - I think it's 3 list changes so add CCJ and we can take 2 picks.

May be wrong.

 

[buttox]

Need to check this out - I think it's 3 list changes so add CCJ and we can take 2 picks.

May be wrong.

Its three draft picks
Or upgrade a rookie to the main list.

 

[krakouers]

Need to check this out - I think it's 3 list changes so add CCJ and we can take 2 picks.

May be wrong.

Need min 3 picks in AFL Draft but one of those can be a rookie upgrade

each Club shall exercise a minimum of 3 Draft selections (including selections forfeited under Rules 8.7, 10.10(b), 12.4(b), 13.4(b) and 14.4(d)); and

https://s.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL%20Tenant/AFL/Files/AFL-Rules-June-2017.PDF

 

[hilly]

After the backlash last year there is no way Collingwood will let their 1st pick in 2022 get pushed back. They will have a contingency draft trade ready to go if we bid at 1.

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[gokangas]

After the backlash last year there is no way Collingwood will let their 1st pick in 2022 get pushed back. They will have a contingency draft trade ready to go if we bid at 1.

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Just a game of chess really. But there is something about being pick one - hope we just take our choice.

 

[Roo202]

After the backlash last year there is no way Collingwood will let their 1st pick in 2022 get pushed back. They will have a contingency draft trade ready to go if we bid at 1.

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

If we bid at 1, are they allowed to make a trade between our bid and their match? So they'd look to do something like trade out their 2022 second rounder for points later in this year's draft?

 

[buttox]

If we bid at 1, are they allowed to make a trade between our bid and their match? So they'd look to do something like trade out their 2022 second rounder for points later in this year's draft?

Yes.
You would assume they will have pre arranged trades.

 

[Roo202]

Yes.
You would assume they will have pre arranged trades.

Thanks.

Wow, I'd imagine there will be some value for whoever they line that up with!

 

[Wild Bill]

Bris will also be looking to trade out their 2022 1st round pick. They have a top 5 f&s next year in Ashcroft.

 

[Wild Bill]

Do you still get a 10% discount on points if they are father/son.

So 2400 would become 2160.

20% so pick 1 is worth 3,000 points. Pies need 2,400 to cover.

 

[King Corey]

buttox krakouers85 a loophole?

"If a Club, prior to the National Draft Selection Meeting, has committed to draft a Player at the Pre-Season Draft Selection Meeting that Player will be deemed to be included on the Club’s Primary List when determining how many Draft selections a Club is entitled to exercise at the National Draft Selection Meeting."

So if CCJ agrees to PSD we can use picks 1 and 20 and trade everything out for futures. If I've interpreted that correctly.

 

[krakouers]

buttox krakouers85 a loophole?

"If a Club, prior to the National Draft Selection Meeting, has committed to draft a Player at the Pre-Season Draft Selection Meeting that Player will be deemed to be included on the Club’s Primary List when determining how many Draft selections a Club is entitled to exercise at the National Draft Selection Meeting."

So if CCJ agrees to PSD we can use picks 1 and 20 and trade everything out for futures. If I've interpreted that correctly.

Yeah that’s how I interpret that too

 

[buttox]

buttox krakouers85 a loophole?

"If a Club, prior to the National Draft Selection Meeting, has committed to draft a Player at the Pre-Season Draft Selection Meeting that Player will be deemed to be included on the Club’s Primary List when determining how many Draft selections a Club is entitled to exercise at the National Draft Selection Meeting."

So if CCJ agrees to PSD we can use picks 1 and 20 and trade everything out for futures. If I've interpreted that correctly.

Thats news to me.
Interesting.
It would make 38 for ccj more palatable.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

If we bid on Daicos - Pies will need 2,400 points to match the bid.
If GWS bid on Daicos - Pies will need 2,014 points to match the bid
If the Suns bid on Daicos - Pies will need 1,788 points to match the bid.

Pies currently have picks 36, 39, 41 & 45 = 502, 446, 412 & 347 = 1,707

They are in a world of pain if we bid.

If we bid, then Collingwood either have to match or weigh up whether Pick 36(!) is going to garner them a player of equal ability.

The only other thing to do is to trade back into the Top 5 to have access to another elite talent.

They’ll match any bid. They’re ****ed otherwise.

 

[King Corey]

Thats news to me.
Interesting.
It would make 38 for ccj more palatable.

Nah **** that.

In fact we can't do that based on the above. If we were to retain Atley and Dumont we have 2 choices:

1. Delist someone else from the main list to make up 3 ND picks
2. Take CCJ in the PSD so we can use 2 ND picks. Then sell pick #38 for a future 2nd rounder.

I vote option #2 in the event of the above.

 

[buttox]

Nah **** that.

In fact we can't do that based on the above. If we were to retain Atley and Dumont we have 2 choices:

1. Delist someone else from the main list to make up 3 ND picks
2. Take CCJ in the PSD so we can use 2 ND picks. Then sell pick #38 for a future 2nd rounder.

I vote option #2 in the event of the above.

38 for CCJ
Take 1 + 20 to National draft.
Commit to Stack in the PSD.
Is what I would do.
The Richmond melts would be epic.
3rd round picks are trash.

 

[The Dingrel]

And just a follow up - if they are 700 points in deficit going into 2022 this is what happens to their 1st round pick.

If they finish 17th again - they go from pick 2 to pick 7.

If they have a better year and finish 13th - they go from pick 6 to pick 17!!!!

I suspect they'll need to swap next years picks into this year to get the points they need....can we work something with them and give them our word we don't pick him at 1?

 

[hilly]

Offer 20 and 38 for a pick in the teens then

 

[buttox]

Offer 20 and 38 for a pick in the teens then

We don't really need to improve 20.
It will get a decent player as it is.
Maybe a future second for a 2021 second.
But we don't really have the list spots.

 

[ferball]

We don't really need to improve 20.
It will get a decent player as it is.
Maybe a future second for a 2021 second.
But we don't really have the list spots.

We have delisted four and lost one with another four (2 are rookies) uncontracted.

So we have 5 spots at the moment. That is enough for CCJ and at least 3 draft picks without losing anyone else. And Leek Aleer, who looks like a potentially great intercept mark.

 

[buttox]

We have delisted four and lost one with another four (2 are rookies) uncontracted.

So we have 5 spots at the moment. That is enough for CCJ and at least 3 draft picks without losing anyone else. And Leek Aleer, who looks like a potentially great intercept mark.

+ Lynch.
Its why i find it odd we would rookie him.