Preview Pick 1 or 2, 2019 Draft: Who Do AFC Target?

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Kristof

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Does being a pick 5 automatically make you better than a pick 19? What a stupid assumption!
With that theory Kade Kolodjashnij at Pick 5 should be streets ahead than Cripps at pick 13 in the 2013 draft and masten at 3 should be better than Rioli at 12 in the 2007 draft.
It doesn't when YOU pick them, no.

I guess your point is - there's no point having draft picks, because everyone has exactly the same talent and passion. Is that right?

It's getting a bit sad, how hard you're trying to justify this.
 

Kristof

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Adelaide 10- 12 wins
Carlton 6 -8 wins
Best scenario for Crows 6 place upgrade on first pick
Worst case scenario 2 game upgrade on first pick
That’s very realistic so don’t get too cocky
Six to eight wins??

You can't count three seasons if we're only counting one.

We'll win 14+ games. You'll win 4.
 

Kristof

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6 wins carlton 12 wins Adelaide is very realistic so in this scenario you give up pick 19 for a 6 pick upgrade.
Six wins is unrealistic. So is us only winning 12.

You won two games last year. You're MAYBE doubling that.

Equally, a couple of injuries and you may struggle for two wins.
 

Kristof

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You can’t see the risk of carlton having a better than expected season versus the risk of Adelaide having a worse than expected season?
The risk is all yours.
Carlton will be trading our first pick for an established player so all this business about a higher pick is irrelevant to us.
If you do MASSIVELY better and have pick 6?

And we do so-so and have pick 10?

We'd STILL do 10 and 19 for 6.

And that is DREAM territory for you guys. Absolutely best possible.

More likely is we get pick 3. I can't see you finishing above anyone other than St Kilda and GCS.
 

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Guys and Girls, As I am getting Old I Keep forgetting, Who holds the AFL record for the most wooden spoons,
I keep forgetting and may have to ask several times for Help this year.
 

Golumless

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Love how Carlton posters are saying ‘it’s not pick 19, it’s Liam Stocker, and we rated him top 10’

We could just as easily say the guy we get at Carlton’s pick is #1 on our draft board next year. We can twist the facts so that we win the trade, too!!
I'm amazed they forgotten Boekhurst, and Bootsma so quickly.

I'd be scared shitless if I was a Carlton supporter and they took that risk, as there is nothing in their talent ID that states they have even the smallest idea when it comes to drafting. Cripps is very much looking like a fluke right there.
 
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Golumless

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You can’t see the risk of carlton having a better than expected season versus the risk of Adelaide having a worse than expected season?
The risk is all yours.
Carlton will be trading our first pick for an established player so all this business about a higher pick is irrelevant to us.
That's a nice delusional bubble you live in. :)
 

Shaz2012

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Geez, Stocker better be a decent player, otherwise this could piss off Blues fans a for a very, very long time. For us the magic move was getting Carlton's R2 pick from GWS. That was absolutely highway robbery. Thank you Giants.
I actually hope he is better than Walsh. Carlton are too pathetic to hate. I’ll save mine for Port, Geelong and #freekickhawthorn.

Carlton were looking like taking pick 1 and then 80 something into the draft. They would have deserved serious criticism if they did that. In the end they took a loss on a trade to convert a top 5 pick into 2 firsts. Allowing them to put an extra year of development into one of them. Despite having clueless idiots like gardiner stand polluting our board now, I think you have to take your hat off to them for this trade. It’s truly win-win. When you factor in we got Carltons 2nd for free, since we were taking Hamilll anyway, we can’t lose.

Pick 16 and Hamill vs Pick 1-5, pick 19-24 and Hamill.

19-24 unlikely to go out by as much as they did this year either.
 

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Moderator #161
Carlton are banking on them having a much better season AND Adelaide having a worse season to make this a good/breakeven deal.

In any of the following scenarios, Adelaide come out well on top:
  1. Carlton perform the same and Adelaide perform the same
  2. Carlton perform the same and Adelaide perform better
  3. Carlton perform better and Adelaide perform better
  4. Carlton perform slightly better and Adelaide perform the same
  5. Carlton perform worse
To some Carlton supporters it's like those other scenarios don't exist at all
That's because Carlton supporters refuse to accept that SOS is not infallible.

Whatever deal is made they always have to spindoctor it as though "the mighty SOS wins again".
 

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Bicks

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I actually hope he is better than Walsh. Carlton are too pathetic to hate. I’ll save mine for Port, Geelong and #freekickhawthorn.
I don't think he will be, the 1st time I saw Stocker this year which I mentioned on here at the time I liked what I saw, very good inside game and reasonable skill set, but the more I saw of him I got the impression he had the tools to be a good solid player but the rung below the realtop liners hence the reason he fell out of my top 20 rankings towards the end of the season. Seems that's what the AFL recruiters thought too because he was predicted to go earlier than he did.
Walsh biggest asset aside from his high footy I.Q. and composure under pressure is his ability to get to so many contests with his gut running and top end endurance. That's also taking into account the fact Liam Stocker was a full time footballer this season completing his schooling the previous year whereas Walsh was juggling school footy, exams TAC, VC representation at the Championships etc.
 

Shaz2012

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I don't think he will be, the 1st time I saw Stocker this year which I mentioned on here at the time I liked what I saw, very good inside game and reasonable skill set, but the more I saw of him I got the impression he had the tools to be a good solid player but the rung below the realtop liners hence the reason he fell out of my top 20 rankings towards the end of the season. Seems that's what the AFL recruiters thought too because he was predicted to go earlier than he did.
Walsh biggest asset aside from his high footy I.Q. and composure under pressure is his ability to get to so many contests with his gut running and top end endurance. That's also taking into account the fact Liam Stocker was a full time footballer this season completing his schooling the previous year whereas Walsh was juggling school footy, exams TAC, VC representation at the Championships etc.
Maybe he can surprise and Walsh can disappoint. I’d just like to see it prove a point because of the way they only seem to value a player by the pick they are drafted. Even with the GWS rejects they take. I’ll be quietly barracking for Liam to exceed Sam for no other reason than that.
 

Mattrox

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I hope that we spend this pick in the DRAFT on elite talent.

We need elite youngsters learning from our veterans before they fizz out.

We need to let Luko and Rsnkine serve out their 2 years and look at those options at that time.


On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app
 

hey shorty

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I hope that we spend this pick in the DRAFT on elite talent.

We need elite youngsters learning from our veterans before they fizz out.

We need to let Luko and Rsnkine serve out their 2 years and look at those options at that time.


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2020 is shaping up to be a good year for SA kids, if we wanna get one of them back it's going to be next year.
 

GreyCrow

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Next season
Jenkins will be 30
Gibbs 30
Sloane 29
Walker 29
Mackay 30
Betts 32
Otten 30
Jacobs 31
Douglas 32
You better strike or you’ll need us to finish last. You missed your chance and it’s downhill from here. Middle of the table finishes and honourable elimination final losses will be it for the next couple of years and then Father Time catches up and its back to the drawing board.
I tend to agree with the basis of your post but I disagree with the analysis

Lets start by recognising Betts is indeed in the twilight of his career that started at Carlton. He has played 295 games. Brilliant brilliant effort. Bravo Eddiebetts. 563 goals 283 in 5 years at Adelaide oh and 280 at Carlton in 9 years .

But yes he is getting tired and I think 2019 is definitely it. Yet our recruiting strategy has been to cover this now. Murphy, Stengle, McHenry and McAdam. All to be given opportunities. So Eddie is covered thank you very much

Gibbs another Carlton reject that will be better for shrugging off the yoke of carrying a team. He can sit back and watch the Rolls Royces purr through. 2 years easy

Sloane, just hard at it and signed a 5 year contract. Not a concern, apart from body damage smashing into Carlton rubes

Tex, yep I have concerns and am hoping next year he returns to fitness. My assessment on him is on hold. A true warrior.

JJ came to football late and has a new lease on life. My concern is he is so good at the media street he may decide to explore opportunities before he is finished.

Mackay , just on the fringes of best 22. The hope is by signing a 1 year contract he is used as a link to a fresh player

Douglas, see Mackay

Otten see old nags home

And that leaves Sauce Jacobs, oh my another Carlton reject. You know what I'll give you this one. Our ruck readiness hasnt been the best method, maybe through injury or inertia somehow Sauce keeps putting his hand up and somehow he keeps getting games. Heart of a lion but in my opinion could really struggle in 2019. Hope I am wrong but I cant see him at the club in 2020 unless as Ruck Coach.

So Sauce and Eddie and Mackay, Douglas and Otten . 2 of the best players , 2 of the next level and a nice swing man that may not be here in 2020. Kinda happy at those numbers
 

Freomaniac

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2006
Shaun Grigg 19 (214 games) Gumbelton 2 (35 games) Thorp 6 (2 games)
2007
Alex Rance 18 (199 games) Harry Taylor 17 (237games) Cale Morton 4 (76 games)
2008
Luke Shuey 19 (177 games)
2009
Mitch Duncan 28 (180 games) morabito 4 (26 games) Butcher 8 (31 games) Moore 9 (60 games)
2010
Harley Bennell 2 (83 games) Isaac smith 19 (181 games)
I can keep going but I can’t be bothered....the above are facts...keep arguing
Still Bitter about Morabitos career. Could of been our equivalent to Ollie wines at Port.

Had a vey good 1st season then had 3 ACLs in a row
 

Bicks

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Still believe you’re wrong...first round draft picks cannot be traded for 2 years
You sure?

https://s.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/AFL Rules_2018.pdf

9. Exchange of Player(s) for Player(s) and Draft Selections 9.1 Exchange Period (a) At any time determined by the AFL and subject to the other provisions of Rule 9, a Club may exchange with another Club or Clubs any combination of Primary List Player(s), Rookie List Player(s) and National Draft Selection(s). (b) By such time as determined by the AFL, the Clubs involved in an exchange must provide to the AFL: (i) notification of such exchange in the form prescribed in Schedule 1 as Form 8; and (ii) duly completed Statutory Declarations in the form prescribed in Schedule 1 as Form 9 and Form 10. (c) A Player may, by Power of Attorney, appoint an attorney to sign a document on his behalf
 
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