- Banned
- #1
I cannot see how Collingwood can fail to make the top 4.
I know that there is no way the AFL can have a fair draw unless every team playes each other twice, but there is no doubt Collingwood get the best draw year in year out.
The Pies are playing good footy ATM but I am sure a few other teams vieing for the top 4 would love to have Collingwoods easy draw.
In this day and age with so much money involved in footy surely the AFL cannot keep giving Collingwood the easiest run every year.
Discuss.
Stevens: Pies hit jackpot
05 July 2007 Herald Sun
Mark Stevens
THE AFL often talks up its fancy new software, designed to spit out the fairest fixture possible, Mark Stevens writes.
Created by Canadian company Optimal Planning Solutions, the computer geeks swear by it.
It must be good. Hey, the NFL is using it.
Yet, no matter how much it spends on programs, the AFL draw will never be bullet-proof. The competition can never be truly equal when all teams aren't playing each other twice.
There are always winners and losers. The moment the draw is released every October, we all guess who they will be.
Right now, it is easy to make a definitive call.
If you're feeling sorry for Collingwood amid the latest Alan Didak controversy, don't.
The Magpies have a dream run home. They are the big winners.
When you make a final judgment, it all comes down to the seven teams each club plays twice.
And the Pies surely can't believe their luck.
The four teams you'd love another crack at beyond Round 15 are blatantly obvious -- Richmond, Melbourne, Carlton and Brisbane.
Collingwood gets all four in its final seven games -- in a row at the MCG, if you don't mind.
The Pies have the Lions in Round 17, Carlton in Round 18, Richmond in Round 19 and Melbourne in Round 20.
With eight wins in the bank already, four wins from that lot should be enough to book a finals berth.
Yes, the Demons rolled Collingwood on the Queen's Birthday, but there are far more fearful sides around. The bookies aren't silly. They've done their homework and have the Magpies at the skinny odds of $1.08 to make the eight.
No other finals contender -- we're talking Geelong (first) down to St Kilda (12th) -- gets the chance to meet all four stragglers twice.
Only Sydney, Port Adelaide and the Kangaroos come close to matching the lucky Pies with three games against the "not-so-awesome foursome".
The Swans get Brisbane, Richmond and Melbourne twice, with a nice little bonus of six of their last nine games in NSW/ACT.
Port gets Richmond, Melbourne and Carlton. The Roos have another chance to potentially beat up on Carlton, Brisbane and Melbourne.
Essendon, Geelong and St Kilda have two double-up games against the "bottom four".
The unlucky clubs are West Coast, Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Fremantle and Hawthorn.
The Dogs only get the Demons twice. And they are probably the most dangerous of the bottom four. There's no second bite of the cherry against Richmond, Carlton and Brisbane.
West Coast gets the only another shot at Richmond. The Dockers just get Melbourne.
Hawthorn and Adelaide get only Brisbane twice.
So five finals contenders get only one rematch against a member of the bottom four. The Pies get four.
That is a massive discrepancy. The AFL had no idea the season would pan out this way, but the Pies are blessed.
There is no quick fix to the on-going problem. A 30-game season is the only solution and that's not going to happen. A 15-game home-and-away schedule is too short.
The AFL has a tough job, considering the compromises of blockbuster and stadium deals, but don't for a moment think it's almost an even playing field.
We all talk about how close this competition is. A goal here, a goal there can decide it.
The final seven weeks will be full of hyped-up predictions and permutations. But, in so many ways, it will come down to the luck of the draw.
I know that there is no way the AFL can have a fair draw unless every team playes each other twice, but there is no doubt Collingwood get the best draw year in year out.
The Pies are playing good footy ATM but I am sure a few other teams vieing for the top 4 would love to have Collingwoods easy draw.
In this day and age with so much money involved in footy surely the AFL cannot keep giving Collingwood the easiest run every year.
Discuss.
Stevens: Pies hit jackpot
05 July 2007 Herald Sun
Mark Stevens
THE AFL often talks up its fancy new software, designed to spit out the fairest fixture possible, Mark Stevens writes.
Created by Canadian company Optimal Planning Solutions, the computer geeks swear by it.
It must be good. Hey, the NFL is using it.
Yet, no matter how much it spends on programs, the AFL draw will never be bullet-proof. The competition can never be truly equal when all teams aren't playing each other twice.
There are always winners and losers. The moment the draw is released every October, we all guess who they will be.
Right now, it is easy to make a definitive call.
If you're feeling sorry for Collingwood amid the latest Alan Didak controversy, don't.
The Magpies have a dream run home. They are the big winners.
When you make a final judgment, it all comes down to the seven teams each club plays twice.
And the Pies surely can't believe their luck.
The four teams you'd love another crack at beyond Round 15 are blatantly obvious -- Richmond, Melbourne, Carlton and Brisbane.
Collingwood gets all four in its final seven games -- in a row at the MCG, if you don't mind.
The Pies have the Lions in Round 17, Carlton in Round 18, Richmond in Round 19 and Melbourne in Round 20.
With eight wins in the bank already, four wins from that lot should be enough to book a finals berth.
Yes, the Demons rolled Collingwood on the Queen's Birthday, but there are far more fearful sides around. The bookies aren't silly. They've done their homework and have the Magpies at the skinny odds of $1.08 to make the eight.
No other finals contender -- we're talking Geelong (first) down to St Kilda (12th) -- gets the chance to meet all four stragglers twice.
Only Sydney, Port Adelaide and the Kangaroos come close to matching the lucky Pies with three games against the "not-so-awesome foursome".
The Swans get Brisbane, Richmond and Melbourne twice, with a nice little bonus of six of their last nine games in NSW/ACT.
Port gets Richmond, Melbourne and Carlton. The Roos have another chance to potentially beat up on Carlton, Brisbane and Melbourne.
Essendon, Geelong and St Kilda have two double-up games against the "bottom four".
The unlucky clubs are West Coast, Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Fremantle and Hawthorn.
The Dogs only get the Demons twice. And they are probably the most dangerous of the bottom four. There's no second bite of the cherry against Richmond, Carlton and Brisbane.
West Coast gets the only another shot at Richmond. The Dockers just get Melbourne.
Hawthorn and Adelaide get only Brisbane twice.
So five finals contenders get only one rematch against a member of the bottom four. The Pies get four.
That is a massive discrepancy. The AFL had no idea the season would pan out this way, but the Pies are blessed.
There is no quick fix to the on-going problem. A 30-game season is the only solution and that's not going to happen. A 15-game home-and-away schedule is too short.
The AFL has a tough job, considering the compromises of blockbuster and stadium deals, but don't for a moment think it's almost an even playing field.
We all talk about how close this competition is. A goal here, a goal there can decide it.
The final seven weeks will be full of hyped-up predictions and permutations. But, in so many ways, it will come down to the luck of the draw.
