Polls Thread Mk III

[pazza]

I think there's been a bit of work going on.

Nielsen has Abbott's personal approval rating at 1% apparently.

I think it's much about the message as anything else.

 

[samFFC]

Because the net result of smaller quotas is that the major parties pick up more seats on first preferences, resulting in less preferences flowing from the majors to the minors. As a result, the minors stack lower than they do at a normal half Senate election.

There is still a benefit to the minor parties. Just not as big as you would first assume.



The number of seats held by ALP/Greens determines the bargaining power of the crossbenchers. The less seats the ALP/Greens hold, the more 'unnecessary' crossbenchers there will be. That makes it easier for the government to play them off against each other and therefore reduces their bargaining power.

Good points.

I would still bet anyone that Abbott won't be going to a DD any time this term. The risk is too great.

 

[The Speaker]

Didn't know we had a Tory Party.

 

[GOAUS!]

dont be surprise to see newspoll be the rogue poll

Newsltd helped to put abbott into government ,

You need more than 2 polls to be able to tell which poll's the rogue.

 

[Caesar]

It'll be a moot point anyway. Can't see him having any trouble getting enough minor party Senators on board with his major legislation.

 

[Crawb]

*Malcolm sips his expensive wine and scrolls down his tablet device, pauses, and slowly laughs*

 

[Pessimistic]

And thats staying relatively unthreatening with no policy to appraise

Just wait till that starts happening

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-po...onski-school-funding-deal-20131125-2y5k3.html

 

[Pessimistic]

Their headline was quite funny.

Strong showing from Bill Shorten.


Sent from my phone to Annoy Noddy

Shortens quite appealling to those not interested in party politics. He needs to save his cutting pit downs for later though

 

[skipper kelly]

Seriously?

It was the ALP cheerleaders who were late to the party on this one. They were using it to perpetuate a myth long after all other facts had deserted them.

Most rational people came to this realisation years ago.

Years of hanging the hat on the PPM and now it means nothing. Can political commentary be anymore predictable than this board.

 

[Juddism]

Newspoll 48-52 with coalition leading...

 

[Slax]

Seriously?

It was the ALP cheerleaders who were late to the party on this one. They were using it to perpetuate a myth long after all other facts had deserted them.

Most rational people came to this realisation years ago.

Preferred PM is the most useless poll there is and why it still exists I have no idea, it fails to serve an actually purpose because Australia voters don't vote for a party because of their leader.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Another poll. There are a couple of others from ReachTEL and Essential out today too.

Newspoll

Primary
LNP: 43 (-2)
ALP: 35 (+3)
GRN: 10 (-2)

2PP
LNP - 52 (-1)
ALP - 48 (+1)

Approval Ratings
Abbott
Approve: 42 (-3)
Disapprove: 42 (+4)

Shorten
Approve: 39 (+2)
Disapprove: 27 (+3)

PPM
Abbott:44 (-2)
Shorten: 33 (+3)

 

[Footy Smarts]

The main upshot is that (presuming the Coalition had favourable polling) any double dissolution would leave the ALP/Greens bloc in a worse position, which is a positive for a sitting government. Most of the minors are much easier for the Coalition to negotiate with, so the more of them the better.

That's probably true but not a guarantee. This previous election was a shocker for both the Greens and Labor, particularly on primary votes in the senate. Yet if the primary votes were repeated from the last election and neither party received any preferences from anybody apart from each other, the Greens and ALP would've combined for this number of seats in each state:

WA - 4 (almost 5)
SA - 3 (almost 4)
NSW - 5
TAS - 5 (almost 6)
VIC - 5
QLD - 4

It's almost certain they'd pick up those seats where I've said "almost" on the back of even a very small flow of preferences. That would give them 31 in total assuming each territory splits 1-1. That's a drop of 4 on what they've got now. However they'd also be very likely pick up a 6th seat in VIC and a 5th in Queensland with some preferences. So realistically, based on last election's results they'd probably be left 2 down on what they have now.

Based on the last election Xenophon would get 3 seats in SA (an increase of 2). There would also be a chance of a minor left party who wouldn't be particularly helpful to the coalition like the Sex party or Wikileaks picking up the 7th seat in either VIC or TAS.

So the realistic best case scenario is that a DD gets rid of 2 of the ALP/GRN block and replaces them with Xenophon's running mates. On the flipside the coalition would likely lose a couple of seats to other minor parties like PUP. This is based on an election that was diabolically bad for Labor and the Greens. So much damage was done at the last election to the ALP/GRN block that there's not much more damage that can be inflicted.

In my opinion there's no way the coalition will risks a bunch of their own seats (both senate and HoR) and a voter backlash just for the possibility of punting a couple of ALP/GRN members who will likely be replaced by Xenophon's running mates or possibly minor left parties like Wikileaks or the Sex Party. Realistically they're not going to get a better senate than what they'll have from July.

 

[GOAUS!]

Another poll. There are a couple of others from ReachTEL and Essential out today too.

Essential poll

Primary

Coaltion: 45 (up 1 compared to last week)
Labor: 36 (up 1)
Greens: 9 (steady)

2 Party Preferred

Coaltion: 53 (steady)
Labor: 47 (steady)

ReachTEL poll

Primary

Coaltion: 43.8 (down 1.6 since Oct 10)
Labor: 34.2 (down 1.1)
Greens: 9.8 (up 1.2)

2 Party Preferred

Coaltion: 51 (down 1)
Labor: 49 (up 1)

 

[samFFC]

Will be an interesting Poll Bludger update next week. Coalition have lost ground in each poll except Essential.

And more importantly, does any of this mean anything in the broader picture? Will status quo be returned by Budget time?

 

[Chief Ten Beers]

Australia should have an election and change of PM every 3 months, not 3 years. Such a fickle electorate.

Reckon Alfred Deakin could rise from the dead, solve world hunger and cancer in the first fortnight and people would get sick of him after 3 months.

 

[The Speaker]

Will be an interesting Poll Bludger update next week. Coalition have lost ground in each poll except Essential.

And more importantly, does any of this mean anything in the broader picture? Will status quo be returned by Budget time?

No. Weekly polls are an anathema to the broader picture. They encourage a cycle that should not be encouraged.

 

[samFFC]

No. Weekly polls are an anathema to the broader picture. They encourage a cycle that should not be encouraged.

I agree. But Poll Bludger doesn't do polls, he simply analyses the data inputted from Essential/Newspoll etc., and tracks trends over time.

 

[finders]

Going to be along 6 years for you guys.

People haven't seen enough to for a true opinion as yet as all weve had is Labor stuff ups rearing their ugly head.

Abbott and Co. will need to adjust their media strategy to be a bit more active.

Going from the manic in your face of the hilarious Labor days to being invisible has gone too far. They will find a happy medium.

Sent from my phone to Annoy Noddy

Labor dont have to do very much as the idiots now in charge will do the job for them When the Murdoch press and Bolt start bagging phoney Tony you know they are in trouble.

After all Abbott has never been popular and he better get his act together pretty quick smart before the public turn on him like a pack of rabid dogs and no amoumt of News Ltd spin will make any difference.
It is pretty hard to polish a turd
Hows the Indons going and the boats going and now the Chinese eh?
Not to mention the triple back flip with pike on the education reforms.

The fatulous Pyne will be a millstone around his neck no wonder Howard wouldnt have a bar of the pompous shrill queen.

 

[poller]

Morgan poll

Primary votes

Coalition 41.5% (-1)
labor 38.5 % (+6)

2PP

Labor 51.5% (+2.5)
Coalition 48.5% (-2.5)

 

[Soul Love]

Could potentially be a one term government for Abbott and co. His honeymoon period is well and truly over.

 

[Pessimistic]

Labor dont have to do very much as the idiots now in charge will do the job for them When the Murdoch press and Bolt start bagging phoney Tony you know they are in trouble.

After all Abbott has never been popular and he better get his act together pretty quick smart before the public turn on him like a pack of rabid dogs and no amoumt of News Ltd spin will make any difference.
It is pretty hard to polish a turd
Hows the Indons going and the boats going and now the Chinese eh?
Not to mention the triple back flip with pike on the education reforms.

The fatulous Pyne will be a millstone around his neck no wonder Howard wouldnt have a bar of the pompous shrill queen.

Im waiting for dan26 to come in with the i told you sos

 

[Caesar]

Nothing good about those numbers, but I doubt the government will be too worried. They haven't done anything yet. Real test will be how the electorate responds to their first budget.

Calls of this being the death knell of the government are hilariously premature. Labor will get into trouble if they think the Coalition will get themselves voted out. However, I think Shorten is too smart to fall for that.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Essential Research
http://essentialvision.com.au/documents/essential_report_131203.pdf

Primary Vote
Coalition 44 (-1)
Labor 36 (steady)

2PP
Coalition 52 (-1)
Labor 48 (+1)

 

[Maggie5]

Labor dont have to do very much as the idiots now in charge will do the job for them When the Murdoch press and Bolt start bagging phoney Tony you know they are in trouble.

After all Abbott has never been popular and he better get his act together pretty quick smart before the public turn on him like a pack of rabid dogs and no amoumt of News Ltd spin will make any difference.
It is pretty hard to polish a turd
Hows the Indons going and the boats going and now the Chinese eh?
Not to mention the triple back flip with pike on the education reforms.

The fatulous Pyne will be a millstone around his neck no wonder Howard wouldnt have a bar of the pompous shrill queen.

Thank you, I was trying to get a mental picture of Pyne - now you have done it for me. - Perfect and I so agree.