Polls Thread Mk III

Ice-Wolf · Feb 25, 2014

tandino said:
Haven't most other polls been showing a small contraction in Labor's support?

If there is an outlier it would look to be Newspoll.

I don't know, Newspoll would be the one you'd think would be biased against Labor not for.

clogged · Feb 25, 2014

The tone News have used in that article seems to indicate they don't believe it's rogue.

Ice-Wolf · Feb 25, 2014

clogged said:
The tone News have used in that article seems to indicate they don't believe it's rogue.

They almost certainly phrased and ordered the questions to get the opposite result.

tandino · Feb 25, 2014

clogged said:
The tone News have used in that article seems to indicate they don't believe it's rogue.

All polling companies would believe that they are the most accurate, or the only accurate poll, and all others differ only in the degree of rouge-ness

clogged · Feb 25, 2014

tandino said:
All polling companies would believe that they are the most accurate, or the only accurate poll, and all others differ only in the degree of rouge-ness

I don't think Newspoll would be very rouge. Blue bloods all the way.

My point is that they have a set a rather distinct narrative for why it is like this - retirement age & Medicare - rather than part of the back and forth of politics. Maybe that's just their attempt to not talk about Manus, or maybe there's something else to it. Neither issues they mention are on my radar but I'm not really in that demographic that political parties try to woo.

tandino · Feb 25, 2014

clogged said:
I don't think Newspoll would be very rouge. Blue bloods all the way.

My point is that they have a set a rather distinct narrative for why it is like this - retirement age & Medicare - rather than part of the back and forth of politics. Maybe that's just their attempt to not talk about Manus, or maybe there's something else to it. Neither issues they mention are on my radar but I'm not really in that demographic that political parties try to woo.

Did it come up in other questions they asked?

clogged · Feb 25, 2014

tandino said:
Did it come up in other questions they asked?

They don't say - but it is interesting. They're certainly two issues I can imagine those in the key marginals would be most worried about.

Ultimately Australian governments live and die on the cost of living.

samFFC · Feb 25, 2014

Hank Scorpion said:
That Newspoll has got to be rogue. 51.5-48.5 would be more like it.

As for Morgan, good and bad news for the Libs. Leading 55-45 in WA which bodes well for the senate election. Trailing 46.5-53.5 in SA, which might swing a couple of disenchanted voters to Labor at the state election.

True but as RUNVS notes, this is still weaker support than at Sept last year:

2PP for WA had Coalition 58.3-41.7.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hous...lts_for_the_Australian_federal_election,_2013

Though I imagine Preference flows will be crucial as always. Some of this Coalition leaning vote would have gone to Palmer (2/3 of PUP voting was ex-Coalition), which then preferenced the Greens in the Senate. That isn't certain to happen again this time around.

Hank Scorpion · Feb 25, 2014

Other poll results:

Essential
http://essentialvision.com.au/documents/essential_report_140225.pdf

TPP (steady)
ALP: 51
Coalition: 49

Ratings for the Federal government's management of:
The economy (+3); good 34%, poor 31%
Asylum seeker treatment (+1); good 37%, poor 36%
Health services (-13); good 25%, poor 38%
Supporting Australian jobs (-19); good 25%, poor 44%

(There were other issues surveyed, I've just listed the key ones)

Support for piracy measures
Support: 38%
Oppose: 42%

Patterson Research Group
The West Australian (http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/21683111/libs-aim-to-retain-all-senators/) has cited Patterson research that at the upcoming senate election in WA, support for the parties stands as:

Liberals: 45 (+6)
ALP: 32 (+5)
Greens: 12 (+3)
PUP: 1 (-4)

I guess that voters are reluctant to support minor parties given the bizarre outcomes generated previously. I'm unsure of how much effort Clive will put into campaigning, but it seems unlikely (however not impossible) he will win a seat, even with our crazy senate system.

Pessimistic · Feb 25, 2014

Surely the sections of society concerned about immigration would also be concerned about jobs.

Question is which do they care more about

Hank Scorpion · Mar 1, 2014

We had the results of polls in Vic & SA come out too this morning, the results have been posted in their respective election threads.

As for NSW, an amazing turn around for Labor.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/03/01/nielsen-51-49-to-labor-in-nsw/

Nielsen
Primaries
ALP: 35
Coalition: 40
Greens: 12

Two party preferred (swing from 2011)
ALP: 51 (+15.2)
Coalition: 49 (-15.2)

Preferred Premier
O'Farrell: 50
Robertson: 30

Approval/Disapproval
O'Farrell: 46/40
Robertson: 34/36

I would suggest that the TPP figure is somewhat rogue. I can't see that figure being compatible with O'Farrell's popularity, or an 8% swing from Sept-Oct 2013. Nevertheless, both Qld and NSW are seeing large swing against the government. I think this was to be expected but the size has come as a complete surprise.

poller · Mar 4, 2014

Reachtel poll on ch 7

2PP
Labor 53%
Coalition 47%

Primary

Labor 39.2%
coalition 40.3%
Greens 10.5%

Hank Scorpion · Mar 11, 2014

A few more polls have been presented today, the various links can be found on:

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/03/10/newspoll-51-49-to-labor-2/

All swings are from the preceding results for each pollster

Newspoll
Coalition: 41 (+2)
Labor: 35 (-4)
Green: 11 (+1)

TPP
Coalition: 49 (+3)
Labor: 51 (-3)

Leadership (Approve/Disapprove)
Abbott: 38(+2)/50(-2)
Shorten: 33(-2)/43(+4)

Preferred PM
Abbott: 42 (+4)
Shorten: 36(-1)

Essential
Coalition: 42 (-2)
Labor: 38 (-)
Green: 8 (-)
PUP: 4 (+1)

TPP
Coalition: 50 (-1)
Labor: 50 (+1)

Leadership (Approve/Disapprove)
Abbott: 40(-1)/47(-)
Shorten: 32(+2)/39(+5)

Preferred PM
Abbott: 39 (-1)
Shorten: 30 (+3)

QANTAS Foreign ownership (Approval of government's policy)
Approve: 36
Disapprove: 48

Morgan
Coalition: 39.5 (-1.5)
Labor: 37 (+1.5)
Green: 12 (+1.5)
PUP: 4 (+0.5)

TPP
Coalition: 46.5 (-3)
Labor: 53.5 (+3)

_______________________________________
Newspoll has returned to sanity after last fortnight's bizarre result, it's probably where it should be. Disappointed not to see any more figures for the S.A. State election

samFFC · Mar 12, 2014

Hank Scorpion said:
A few more polls have been presented today, the various links can be found on:

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/03/10/newspoll-51-49-to-labor-2/

All swings are from the preceding results for each pollster

Newspoll
Coalition: 41 (+2)
Labor: 35 (-4)
Green: 11 (+1)

TPP
Coalition: 49 (+3)
Labor: 51 (-3)

Leadership (Approve/Disapprove)
Abbott: 38(+2)/50(-2)
Shorten: 33(-2)/43(+4)

Preferred PM
Abbott: 42 (+4)
Shorten: 36(-1)

Essential
Coalition: 42 (-2)
Labor: 38 (-)
Green: 8 (-)
PUP: 4 (+1)

TPP
Coalition: 50 (-1)
Labor: 50 (+1)

Leadership (Approve/Disapprove)
Abbott: 40(-1)/47(-)
Shorten: 32(+2)/39(+5)

Preferred PM
Abbott: 39 (-1)
Shorten: 30 (+3)

QANTAS Foreign ownership (Approval of government's policy)
Approve: 36
Disapprove: 48

Morgan
Coalition: 39.5 (-1.5)
Labor: 37 (+1.5)
Green: 12 (+1.5)
PUP: 4 (+0.5)

TPP
Coalition: 46.5 (-3)
Labor: 53.5 (+3)

_______________________________________
Newspoll has returned to sanity after last fortnight's bizarre result, it's probably where it should be. Disappointed not to see any more figures for the S.A. State election

And Morgan continuing to be the strong for ALP.

poller · Mar 12, 2014

It seems newspoll was used by newsltd for its agenda that the qantas fiasco backfired on labor , but it didn't
Morgan and Essential polling showed the opposite the swing was against the coalition

Slax · Mar 12, 2014

If you assume Federally it is 51.5-48.5 in favour of Labor then all polls are within an acceptable margin for era.

WA though is completely different, the polls coming out of there are all over the place, it's almost like they're throwing darts at a board and publishing them.

pjcrows · Mar 12, 2014

poller said:
It seems newspoll was used by newsltd for its agenda that the qantas fiasco backfired on labor , but it didn't
Morgan and Essential polling showed the opposite the swing was against the coalition

Not really. Their 54-46 was just a rogue, and the 51-49 is merely a correction with trend.

poller · Mar 12, 2014

pjcrows said:
Not really. Their 54-46 was just a rogue, and the 51-49 is merely a correction with trend.

dont know about rogue

Reachtel and morgan are 53 and 53.5%

samFFC · Mar 12, 2014

Slax said:
If you assume Federally it is 51.5-48.5 in favour of Labor then all polls are within an acceptable margin for era.

WA though is completely different, the polls coming out of there are all over the place, it's almost like they're throwing darts at a board and publishing them.

Agreed.

Surely we could get some decent polling in next week or 2?

All leaders in WA, much of political attention will be there. Why not?

Gough · Mar 24, 2014

Morgan reporting 54.5% ALP, 45.5% Coalition, with WA showing 52% ALP, 48% Coalition.

Ice-Wolf · Mar 24, 2014

Gough said:
Morgan reporting 54.5% ALP, 45.5% Coalition, with WA showing 52% ALP, 48% Coalition.

The WA polling would be very concerning as Labor never leads the Federal TPP in WA. Even if the figures were reversed it would be good polling for Labor.

Hank Scorpion · Mar 24, 2014

Gough said:
Morgan reporting 54.5% ALP, 45.5% Coalition, with WA showing 52% ALP, 48% Coalition.

Morgan isn't the most reliable of the pollsters. I'd take that W.A. figure with a grain of salt as Labor hasn't been anywhere near leading the TPP there in years. Unless there was backlash surrounding the Buswell incident, I can't see any reason why it would swing so suddenly.

We also had a Nielsen poll last week with 51-49 to the Coalition so even that nationwide figure looks dubious.

It also found that PUP has 10.5% support in WA. Unless there has been a massive advertising campaign launched recently that also looks dodgy given nationwide it's only 4.5%. Other statewide figures had the ALP leading 56.5-43.5 in Queensland, which like WA seems unreliable, given that it has been strongly conservative over recent months.

However, it's a fantastic result if true.

poller · Mar 24, 2014

Hank Scorpion said:
Morgan isn't the most reliable of the pollsters. I'd take that W.A. figure with a grain of salt as Labor hasn't been anywhere near leading the TPP there in years.

We also had a Nielsen poll last week with 51-49 to the Coalition so even that nationwide figure looks dubious.

However, it's a fantastic result if true.

Morgan has been the most accurate polling company out of all of them in predicting the federal election results

Nielsen and essentials have been the worse

Hank Scorpion · Mar 24, 2014

It was my understanding that Morgan operated with a Labor bias.

Regardless of historical precedent, it's hard not to question the accuracy of the data, given some of the aforementioned results.

poller · Mar 24, 2014

Hank Scorpion said:
It was my understanding that Morgan operated with a Labor bias.

Morgan probably stopped being labor biased , when news ltd publicly attacked them at the end of 2012

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