Mega Thread Possible trades in 2015 for the Crows

[alex_is_on_fire]

Don't think so mate. He will have to be a top 10 forward at minimum to justify that money. If he is the next Liam Jones they are in trouble.

In 4 years time , when the AFL salary cap is about $17,000,000 a year (currenly at $10,500,000) his salary is be fair.

 

[fabs33]

Will put my house on it (someone else's house ) that Boyd will not be a flop, in fact I think the bulldogs will win that trade by a mile after griffen has 3 good years and Boyd is still around in 2024

Let's not forget that GWS also got pick six for Boyd as well.

As far as who 'wins' the trade, I'm going with a draw. My prediction is that Griffen will retire before any rise up the ladder by GWS and whoever they got with the dog's pick will be an average player at best. As for the dogs, I predict that whilst Boyd won't be a dud he also won't be the superstar power forward they hope he'll be and the money they spent on him will have been far more than he is worth, but the club and their supporters won't care because they will see it as a gamble that was worth taking (and also because they're biased ).

My reasoning for all this is that there are so few players that become superstars of the competition worthy of that kind of money, even rarer key forwards, that the chances of Boyd reaching that level are very slim, even if he was a number one draft pick. Whilst GWS just traded a number one pick and a year's worth of development for a lesser pick plus a few years of an aging player who won't be around when they need him most.

 

[Paladin]

In 4 years time , when the AFL salary cap is about $17,000,000 a year (currenly at $10,500,000) his salary is be fair.

He could all depends on how he develops. I think it's unlikely.

 

[alex_is_on_fire]

He could all depends on how he develops. I think it's unlikely.

I think he will kick 25 goals this year, 40 next year and 60 plus in 2017.

 

[Draft Bored]

Try this:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BwvL8ZrG8TtTZDRYM0VGQ3NOU2M/view?usp=sharing

It's also got the last 6 years of player losses for each club (to go with another discussion)

Legend. Not formatted that great but I'll be able to sift through the data. I'm happy to keep this updated with you if you want? Shoot me a PM if you're interested, you can share write access on that doc.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Don't think so mate. He will have to be a top 10 forward at minimum to justify that money. If he is the next Liam Jones they are in trouble.

He's the best number 1 draft pick of the last few years, the most dominant etc...eg paddy mccartin doesn't come close. Just give it 1-2 years and it will be seen , alex is right re salary will seem nothing crazy in about 4 yrs time . Only risk is injury eg what has happened to Patton and scharanberg which could have long term consequences on careers

 

[Paladin]

He's the best number 1 draft pick of the last few years, the most dominant etc...eg paddy mccartin doesn't come close. Just give it 1-2 years and it will be seen , alex is right re salary will seem nothing crazy in about 4 yrs time . Only risk is injury eg what has happened to Patton and scharanberg which could have long term consequences on careers

That's what they said about kruezer, watts, scully etc

 

[AFC979810]

whoever they got with the dog's pick will be an average player at best.

What makes you say that pick 6 will be an average player at best if you don't even know who they picked?

FYI - they picked key defender Caleb Marchbank.

 

[AFC979810]

Try this:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BwvL8ZrG8TtTZDRYM0VGQ3NOU2M/view?usp=sharing

It's also got the last 6 years of player losses for each club (to go with another discussion)

Bacon8 - You superstar.

 

[AFC979810]

That's what they said about kruezer, watts, scully etc

They also said it about Hodge, Goddard, Cooney, Deledio, Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs and David Swallow. Number #1 picks are Number #1 picks for a reason.

I don't think anyone is arguing that its not without risk, however I think the bigger risk would have been to sit on their hands and keep Griffen for another 3 years whilst they sit at the bottom of the ladder.

For me I like the Bulldogs deal for 2 reasons:

1. By looking at their list - they have so much cap room its ridiculous. Look at their top 10 from their B&F. Griffin - their most expensive player is gone (yes they are paying some of his wage, but not the full amount). 4 others are considered veterans where they can pay $120k of their salary outside the cap - Boyd, Minson, Murphy, Morris. Most of the other players of their top 10 are still on their first contract or have not done enough to justify a big new contract - Bont, Wallis, Libba, Dalhaus, Macrae. Then add in the fact that veterans Cooney and Higgins left. How the hell are they going to even go close to spending $10 million? They have so much Cap room and flexibility its ridiculous. They would have absolutely front loaded the shit out of that Boyd contract so that in 3 years it will have no impact.

2. He is a 19 year old 200cm / 104 kilo monster forward. This isn't a Watts/Sellar type player whose draft stock rises because they dominate at junior level due to a size that doesn't translate at AFL level. He is an absolute physical freak size wise. I have never seen an 18 year old move as well as he does for his size. Has very strong hands and is a fantastic contested mark.



Pretty impressive highlight reel for an 18 year old kid.

If it fails - they have lost money that they would have had to spend anyway and be in the same spot they are in now. If it succeeds and Boyd lives up to his potential they have a once in a generation forward.

 

[Glenno23]

Don't think so mate. He will have to be a top 10 forward at minimum to justify that money. If he is the next Liam Jones they are in trouble.

They are in trouble regardless..... So why not take the risk?

They sure as hell weren't going to be successful without a KPF, but they are at least a chance in 5 years if he fills his talent and they keep their good key young mids playing well and developing

 

[fabs33]

What makes you say that pick 6 will be an average player at best if you don't even know who they picked?

FYI - they picked key defender Caleb Marchbank.

It's my prediction based on the odds, not an absolute. The sentence you quoted from my post does begin with the words "My prediction is...".

 

[Footypie32]

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...-personal-issues/story-fnp04d70-1227257382583

 

[Elite Crow]

Wrong thread?

 

[Footypie32]

Wrong thread?

Sort of. Wasn't really sure where to put it. The point was that the kid is quite homesick for SA and is an athletic freak apparently. Could be someone to look at.

 

[Rear Admiral]

I was chatting to a friend of mine that supports a non-SA club, and we were chatting about The Crows' list management. He said that The Crows don't have a list that's too bad, but our selectors during Draft Week seriously have a lot to answer for, as well as our Trade Staff.
Like it or not, the vast majority of young blokes (particularly those outside of SA) don't want to live in Adelaide, so The Crows are up against it, whether we like it or not. We don't have anywhere near the population and social settings compared to Eastern States. In particular, our off-field business opportunities don't come close to comparing.
If you don't agree with these points, then there's no point reading any further, cos you'll just be wasting your time.
What my mate told me is that in The Draft, The Crows need to focus wholly and solely on local SA talent, where all their friends and family live in Adelaide. Dangermouse is a great get, but what's the point in getting talent like that if they're going to walk? Just take a look at Gunston - that's the one that really sticks in my Craw. I'm all for Damien Hardwick's comments that clubs should be allowed to trade players against their will, because at the moment what we're getting is a version of semi-Free-Agency from the moment young players get Drafted. Until that changes, we need to focus entirely on local talent - even if that means not picking the best players....but only in THE DRAFT. Where we need to get our absolute top guns is at the Trade Table - an area that The Crows have been utterly useless, with a few rare exceptions. When we do Trade someone in, we know they've agreed to the Trade, so they're almost guaranteed to stay - this is where need to push hard. Betts is a perfect example of this, but there needs to be many, many more.
Just look at how successful Sydney have been over the duration (forget TidBit) - they Trade players in and they improve out of site. The Crows need to take a leaf out of their book, and really go for broke.

The bottom line is the AFL is anything but a level playing field, so we need to approach things differently to East Coast Clubs.

 

[Campbell's Chunky]

This is pretty flawed logic.

We've had a few that have left but need I remind you that 50% of the players that have actually 'left' our club recently against the Crows wishes are actually South Australians (Bock, Davis). Conversely, a good majority of our side is interstate born (I'd guess atleast 3/4) and don't really see too many leaving?

Yeh Dangerfield and Sloane may leave, but do you really wish we never had them in the first place?

 

[Barneythecrab]

I Like your points. Sometimes i feel like the list managers are also swayed by the media that VIC has the best talent. Just take a look at who got drafted. SA killed every team in the U18 Champs and a very low number of their mob got picked. Doesnt make sense.

 

[TheVelourFog]

Drafting only SA players is just a terrible idea. Go have a look at the 2009 draft and tell me that we shouldn't have drafted Talia and instead gone for Christian Howard or the always injured Menzel. Yes Gunston didn't work out but neither did any SA players in the draft after him. If we only drafted SA players we'd be the worst team in the comp.
But I do agree that if contracts for players are now meaningless then they should be for clubs too and they should just be able to trade a player to any club without it only being up to the player to decide if he wants to go or not. The players have too much control at the end of the season.

 

[Golumless]

I was chatting to a friend of mine that supports a non-SA club, and we were chatting about The Crows' list management. He said that The Crows don't have a list that's too bad, but our selectors during Draft Week seriously have a lot to answer for, as well as our Trade Staff.
Like it or not, the vast majority of young blokes (particularly those outside of SA) don't want to live in Adelaide, so The Crows are up against it, whether we like it or not. We don't have anywhere near the population and social settings compared to Eastern States. In particular, our off-field business opportunities don't come close to comparing.
If you don't agree with these points, then there's no point reading any further, cos you'll just be wasting your time.
What my mate told me is that in The Draft, The Crows need to focus wholly and solely on local SA talent, where all their friends and family live in Adelaide. Dangermouse is a great get, but what's the point in getting talent like that if they're going to walk? Just take a look at Gunston - that's the one that really sticks in my Craw. I'm all for Damien Hardwick's comments that clubs should be allowed to trade players against their will, because at the moment what we're getting is a version of semi-Free-Agency from the moment young players get Drafted. Until that changes, we need to focus entirely on local talent - even if that means not picking the best players....but only in THE DRAFT. Where we need to get our absolute top guns is at the Trade Table - an area that The Crows have been utterly useless, with a few rare exceptions. When we do Trade someone in, we know they've agreed to the Trade, so they're almost guaranteed to stay - this is where need to push hard. Betts is a perfect example of this, but there needs to be many, many more.
Just look at how successful Sydney have been over the duration (forget TidBit) - they Trade players in and they improve out of site. The Crows need to take a leaf out of their book, and really go for broke.

The bottom line is the AFL is anything but a level playing field, so we need to approach things differently to East Coast Clubs.

Actually, one of the most interesting things about our drafting has been how many Vic Country kids we bring in, as it is more likely they'll be able to adjust to living in Adelaide than someone from the city regions of Melbourne.

Has been a real focus in the last couple of years as an outsider looking in. That said, you can't just draft SA talent as it will get you nowhere... see West Coast who solely draft WA players, you do need to draft the best player that isn't judged to be a flight risk.

 

[1990crow]

Ridiculous proposition. Talia, Sloane, Brad and Matt Crouch, Kerridge, Douglas, VB, Lyons, Mackay, Henderson, Otten, Reilly have all shown no signs throughout their respective careers that they would love to be one club players. Dangerfield May even stay, who knows. I don't think this is a major problem. Bock and Davis we couldn't match money wise. Tippett was always likely to leave, he didn't enjoy the city. Gunston yes unfortunate, probably the only one that fits the criteria. Even then we could have done more to keep him.

 

[baldandbroke]

I, on the other hand do not like your points, except for the one that said "do not read further" which I wish I had heeded.

 

[Samcro24]

The club can't limit itself to drafting from one state in a national comp. That said, sometimes I wish the club would manoeuvre it's draft position so that it can draft elite locals (like aish). Easier said than done I guess.

Like others have said, they don't all leave. That gets forgotten amongst the speculation about danger.

 

[Rear Admiral]

Either we focus entirely on local talent, or give it a lot more focus. If you don't agree with that approach....have to agree to disagree - as simple as that.

But either way, I am of the opinion our overall recruiting strategies must change. In particular, being more aggressive at the Trade Table.
One thing I've had a lot of people say is that with a Trade, you've got a known quantity....but with Draft Picks - sure, you can land some real Gems, but Draft Picks are always a roll of the dice. Unfortunately, for many, many years we have not been a Club known for doing well at the Trade Table. There are some definite exceptions, such as Jarman and Betts, but not many. More often than not, we don't do well at all.

 

[Paladin]

Either we focus entirely on local talent, or give it a lot more focus. If you don't agree with that approach....have to agree to disagree - as simple as that.

But either way, I am of the opinion our overall recruiting strategies must change. In particular, being more aggressive at the Trade Table.
One thing I've had a lot of people say is that with a Trade, you've got a known quantity....but with Draft Picks - sure, you can land some real Gems, but Draft Picks are always a roll of the dice. Unfortunately, for many, many years we have not been a Club known for doing well at the Trade Table. There are some definite exceptions, such as Jarman and Betts, but not many. More often than not, we don't do well at all.

Jenkins, Crouch, Lynch, Brown Jacobs, Betts, many of our best players have been traded to the club. Can't say I agree with you.