Predict what independents will do

[simpleton]

1) Wilkie first sides with Labour
2) Oakeshott and Windsor will then side with Labour using the logic "Labour has 74 seats to Liberals 73"
3) Katter left out in the cold

Final Result
Labour 76
Liberal 73
Katter 1

 

[Relativity]

1) Wilkie first sides with Labour
2) Oakeshott and Windsor will then side with Labour using the logic "Labour has 74 seats to Liberals 73"
3) Katter left out in the cold

Final Result
Labour 76
Liberal 73
Katter 1

Agree with this. Labor supplying a speaker reduces their vote to 75 + casting on matters of confidence and supply only, with Oakeshott and Windsor voting on conscience with all other legislation. The question is could it then be possible for Abbott to move a no-confidence motion in the government and subsequently call an election if 2 of Labors votes are no shows?

 

[Nankervis brothers]

72 seats all ATM.

Brandt supports ALP Crook LNP, 73 seats all.

Wilkie supports ALP, 74 ALP 73 LNP.

Oakeshott (whose politics, i am suprised to see, are more in line with the ALP than the LNP) follows this momentum and brings Windsor with him. 76 seats ALP 73 seats LNP.

Katter then pleases himself (try not to take that turn of phrase literally).

However, Wilkie may support niether. I would not rule that out, he seems that sort of guy.

If that happens its 73 seats all and up to the 3 hayseed entirely. In that case i think it is more likely they (the hayseeds) will support en bloc the LNP.

So Wilkies decision becomes important, as it gets the ball rolling one way or another, so to speak.

But really who ****ing knows. Wild speculation at best.

 

[Relativity]

72 seats all ATM.

Brandt supports ALP Crook LNP, 73 seats all.

Wilkie supports ALP, 74 ALP 73 LNP.

Oakeshott (whose politics, i am suprised to see, are more in line with the ALP than the LNP) follows this momentum and brings Windsor with him. 76 seats ALP 73 seats LNP.

Katter then pleases himself (try not to take that turn of phrase literally).

However, Wilkie may support niether. I would not rule that out, he seems that sort of guy.

If that happens its 73 seats all and up to the 3 hayseed entirely. In that case i think it is more likely they (the hayseeds) will support en bloc the LNP.

So Wilkies decision becomes important, as it gets the ball rolling one way or another, so to speak.

But really who ****ing knows. Wild speculation at best.

I think Wilkie would go with the first party to get to 75. Can't see him forcing another election given his own seat is "knife edge". But as you say pure speculation.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

I think Wilkie would go with the first party to get to 75. Can't see him forcing another election given his own seat is "knife edge". But as you say pure speculation.

Apparently Wilkie intends to make his decision clear by Friday (originally he had said by Wednesday). If he stays true to this then he will be making a call before the 'gang of three'.

 

[Freo Big Fella]

72 all at the moment.

Crook backs the Coalition, Bandt backs Labor.

73-73

Wilkie backs Labor.

74-73

Katter lets slip that he's backing the Coalition on Sunday morning.

74-74

Windsor and Oakeshott follow suit on Monday morning.

74-76

Abbott forms government.

 

[DeanoT]

72 all at the moment.

Crook backs the Coalition, Bandt backs Labor.

73-73

Wilkie backs Labor.

74-73

Katter lets slip that he's backing the Coalition on Sunday morning.

74-74

Windsor and Oakeshott follow suit on Monday morning.

74-76

Abbott forms government.

Agree that we will end up with 74-74 once Katter and Wilkie declare their obvious hands.

Not sure which way the other two guys will go (my guess is they would favour the Coalition, but who knows at the moment), but either way that is one unstable government.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

Agree that we will end up with 74-74 once Katter and Wilkie declare their obvious hands.

Not sure which way the other two guy (my guess is they would favour the Coalition, but who knows at the moment), but either way that is one unstable government.

This is true. Which ever party forms government has no real 'mandate'. I imagine there will be floor crossing a plenty from independents on various issues. And the relationship between the indies and the major they support is likely to break down at some point.


Which makes it all the more problematic that both major parties have committed to going a full term as a minority government. That could prove a disaster if (or when) things turn unworkable.

 

[year of the cat]

72 all at the moment.

Crook backs the Coalition, Bandt backs Labor.

73-73

Katter, Windsor, Oakeshott succumb to pressure from their electorates to side with the LNP

76-73

Abbott forms government.

Wilkie remains uncommitted to either party.

Back at the polls within 12 months.

 

[Todman]

Oakeshott wants to back Labor, but can't because he's in a coalition leaning electorate.

He believes Wilkie will side with Labor to make Gillard 74th seat.

Without Windsor or Katter siding with Labor , Oakeshott can't otherwise both sides would be 75 all, Hung!!


Windsor is the key , Oakeshott will follow Windsor otherwise his free ride in Canberra will end

 

[Andre]

This is true. Which ever party forms government has no real 'mandate'. I imagine there will be floor crossing a plenty from independents on various issues. And the relationship between the indies and the major they support is likely to break down at some point.

The best either the ALP or Coalition is going to get is not to block supply or support no confidence motions against them. The Indi's/Green will vote according to their wishes on everything else. Whether it's Tony or Julia, both are going to have a lot of things not fly and see things go through the House of Reps not supported by their government - with them able to do nothing unless they go back to the polls.

The other unknown is the independent speaker both sides are talking about. Abbott has said he'll support the previous ALP speaker remaining in the role. Gillard has said independent speaker, but given they had the last speaker, she can't be tricky and just say X from the Coalition has their support. Abbott has dropped the ball with this IMO, with trying to get her to say she'll support Jenkins as speaker no matter who forms government. He could wedge her into either being locked into 'old' politics whilst Abbott is beyond it, or she supports it and he's knocked it down to needing 75 rather than 76 seats to fall over the line.

 

[Gift]

Id be surprised if Labor somehow managed to form a minority government.

72 - 72.

Crook backs the Coalition and Bandt backs Labor without much surprise.

73 - 73

Wilkie backs Labor on friday and Gillard thinks shes a chance.

74 - 73

The three amigos feel pressure to announce who they will side with so they announce their backing of the Coalition whilst holding hands.

76 - 74

Abbott forms government by monday.

 

[Max zero]

To be honest I'm not really sure 'winning' government at the point would be in a parties long term interest.

No matter who the independents support they will be flaky support at best. Plus they have to serve the full 3 years. Too big a millstone IMO.

Might be best to watch whoever 'wins' fall in a heap and romp home in the next election.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

^^^^Max Zero

Spot on, and there is a general theory Abbott doesn't want it for some of the reasons you list above.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

Interesting development.

The hayseeds say they may make their decision public by Friday. See here:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-elect...ision-is-likely-by-friday-20100831-14fmw.html

And Wilkie has rejected the ALP's offer. See here:

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/key-mp-shuns-offer-from-labor-20100831-14fk2.html

I have to say, i always had Wilkie pegged for a difficult bastard. I reckon he will support no one, and let the hayseeds make the decision.


On this news i will wildly speculate that the poisoned chalice will go to the LNP.

 

[Max zero]

More this goes on, the more I feel sorry for the poor bastard who ends up 'winning'.

Three years of hell. Dealing with a hostile senate (Greens won't do anyone any favours) and having to appease 2/3 flaky independents on every single bill.

Whoever ends up losing will need a cart to carry all the ammunition they will gather.

 

[Dry Rot]

To be honest I'm not really sure 'winning' government at the point would be in a parties long term interest.

No matter who the independents support they will be flaky support at best. Plus they have to serve the full 3 years. Too big a millstone IMO.

Might be best to watch whoever 'wins' fall in a heap and romp home in the next election.

Agree at a party level, but whoever isn't PM out of Gillard and Abbott after this will be dead meat.

I assume it is focusing their minds.

 

[Max zero]

On this news i will wildly speculate that the poisoned chalice will go to the LNP.

To be honest I don't know if the LNP can make their hostility anymore apparent. Refusing independent demands, abuse and 'prank' phonecalls.

It's not exactly subtle.

 

[Max zero]

Agree at a party level, but whoever isn't PM out of Gillard and Abbott after this will be dead meat.

I assume it is focusing their minds.

Gillard, maybe but Abbott?

 

[midorigreenwood]

The rural independents - Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Bob Katter - have stressed stability as their priority and Mr Oakeshott told Melbourne radio yesterday that he could be influenced if Mr Wilkie chose Labor.

''Whoever does get to 74 [seats] in any agreement with Adam Bandt and Andrew Wilkie is of interest,'' he said.

The rural independents were briefed yesterday by the shadow treasurer, Joe Hockey, and the opposition finance spokesman, Andrew Robb, on the Coalition's policy costings which Mr Abbott agreed reluctantly to let Treasury examine.

Treasury will brief the independents on its findings today and it is believed it has found a discrepancy in the Coalition's claim that it would save $11.5 billion more than Labor over the next four years.

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-el...ision-is-likely-by-friday-20100831-14fmw.html

 

[Clay Davis]

Agree at a party level, but whoever isn't PM out of Gillard and Abbott after this will be dead meat.

I assume it is focusing their minds.

Abbott wouldn't be. Even Gillard might not be - she could well become the next Beazley.

 

[pazza]

72 all.

Bandt with Labor - 73-72.

Crook and the others might just make up their mind per legislation. Basically, it'll come down to personal preferences on each piece of legislation. Some will be supported and some won't be.

 

[The Exorcist]

Katter - Coalition


Around the time Gillard rejected raising tariffs and Gillard signed with the Greens, Bob K has said he's within a "hair's breath" of deciding which why he'll go

He's also refused to join the other Independents in talking to Garnuat

 

[Dont be a lemon]

To be honest I'm not really sure 'winning' government at the point would be in a parties long term interest.

No matter who the independents support they will be flaky support at best. Plus they have to serve the full 3 years. Too big a millstone IMO.

Might be best to watch whoever 'wins' fall in a heap and romp home in the next election.

One can't predict the political future with certainty.

Better to win minority government now and be able to do some things rather than be in opposition for 18-36 months and hopes things fall your way.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

An article in SMH, reporting on the $7bn hole in Coalition costings, ended with an interesting tidbit from an unnamed Coalition source (i am assuming that is where it is from, anyway). It reads:

"Mr Abbott has called a Coalition party room meeting for next Wednesday in the expectation the independents will have made up their minds by then.
Liberals said they felt Mr Windsor and Mr Oakeshott would back Labor. If Mr Wilkie also did this, Ms Gillard would have 76 seats.

Not sure who said this to whom, but that is a pretty big call. Article here:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/treasury-wipes-10b-off-lib-costings-20100901-14nmw.html