Predict what independents will do

[Wonaeamirri33]

I've always thought it'd be very unlikely that Oakeshott or Windsor would side with the Coalition- that was very apparent to me even before I saw this SMH article.

They'd be mugs if they did, and would be acting against their own interests.

The policy perspective espoused by these two independent MPs seems to be poles apart from so much of what the Liberals advocate in their policy platform, most strikingly so in Oakeshott's case.

In fact, I'd say they're both closer in their thinking to the Greens in many respects. As I've said before, Oakeshott reminds me a lot of Peter Andren (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Andren) - and Windsor is also cut from similar cloth.

And like Andren did, both of them have an unshakeable hold on their seat- Oakeshott has a 25% margin in Lyne, and Windsor has a 43% margin in New England.

Their personal support is enormously high, and their voters would certainly be sufficiently cognisant of what they represent, so I don't see either of them being particularly endangered by rejecting Abbott and the Coalition.

Moreover, their parliamentary records show they've both voted with the ALP substantially more often than not, up to this point.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

^^^^Wona

I knew little of Oakeshott and Windsor prior to this process. My first thought was that, as rural/regional ex-Nats, they would be conservative on most issues if not all. Clearly a generalization on my part, as their stance on broadband, climate change, and Asylum Seekers has pretty much been in accord with elements of the Labor Left and to some extent positions held by the Greens.

All three 'hayseeds' stance on policy and economic transparency - and, in the case of Oakeshott, his inferred rejection of dog-whistling - has been refreshing. I also agree that it would be odd for Oakeshott and (to a slightly lesser extent) Windsor, to go with the Coalition given how little ground they seem to have with that Party on most of the major issues of the day. Still, they may go down that road. Whatever the case some stereotypes have been exploded through this process.