Quicky's list draft and trade talk thread 2011

[soreplums]

I still think that unless they can find a player they see more potential in than Stubbs, Farmer and co- then they'll survive another year and be delisted for extra picks in the Super draft.

 

[Quicky]

I still think that unless they can find a player they see more potential in than Stubbs, Farmer and co- then they'll survive another year and be delisted for extra picks in the Super draft.

The way I look at it is that we know that at least 3 players need to come off the senior list. We know Brown is gone. That leaves at least 2 changes. Guaranteed it'll happen. If we were to keep both Farmer and Stubbs I think it would mean some trades or maybe unexpected retirements.

 

[soreplums]

The way I look at it is that we know that at least 3 players need to come off the senior list. We know Brown is gone. That leaves at least 2 changes. Guaranteed it'll happen. If we were to keep both Farmer and Stubbs I think it would mean some trades or maybe unexpected retirements.

I would say that we would more likely delist and re-rookie Dick-making that two, and possibly the same for one (maybe both) of Stubbs, Farmer. Additionally, players like Goldy, Macca may look to move on for more opportunity; or even Leon may look to head west if we are premiers again.

Should Leon or Johnno retire, spots open up for Buckley and Goldy.

 

[Quicky]

I would say that we would more likely delist and re-rookie Dick-making that two, and possibly the same for one (maybe both) of Stubbs, Farmer. Additionally, players like Goldy, Macca may look to move on for more opportunity; or even Leon may look to head west if we are premiers again.

Should Leon or Johnno retire, spots open up for Buckley and Goldy.

Yeah I'm with you there. The re-rookie option is certainly one to explore if we don't see the trades and retirements that are possible.

 

[THATSGOLD]

5 are probably easy to figure out the 6th is where it gets interesting.

Reed
McNamara
Perham
Reilly
Gordon.

After that there are several possibles.

4 of those are KPP.. we can't afford to lose Dawes thats for sure.

 

[blaze036]

4 of those are KPP.. we can't afford to lose Dawes thats for sure.

Doesnt really matter what position they are, they're duds! They dont help depth when there clearing no where near AFL talent.

 

[THATSGOLD]

I am well aware they are duds thanks for clearing that up!! I'm sure Collingwood drafted four KKP duds with deliberate intentions..... Its going to be an area we will hopefully address in this years draft.

 

[Kirby]

The taller rookies like Gordon, Reilly and Perham were really speculative picks. Successful AFL key position players are rarely picked up as rookies (with the odd exception of course).

I think Hine saw some potential in each of them and brought them to the club to see whether being in the system would lead to some promising improvement. None of those three really came on much during the year and all have been cut.

We will probably go through a similar process with a couple of rookies for next year too.

p.s. When does the rookie list finish up?

 

[Scodog10]

p.s. When does the rookie list finish up?

Not for another 5 years more than likely. If it get's scrapped the odds are it'll be when a new EBA rolls around. The one currently being negotiated has provisions for the wages to be increased for rookies and possibly to make the upgrade process easier. Rather than for the list to be scrapped all together.

 

[Snoop Dog]

My understanding is that Leon is almost certain to go so I think in planning you can assume that will most probably happen. To keep Dawes they will have to let Leon go and probably encourage Ben Johnson to retire or help Goldsack or McCarthy move elsewhere. Still dont think Caf will go but I maybe be wrong. I think a lot depends on where we finish to be honest. WOuldnt mind betting Bucks cuts a few in order to get some good kids in over the next two years to keep the list fresh.

Its quite plausible Bucks could push out Leon and I expect only a 2nd or 3rd round for him. In a weak draft thats fair. Its what Aker got and Leon is as good. BJ wouldnt have much value so its a small contract or retirement this year or next depending on when his deal runs out, Goldsack is starved of opportunities and unless he can be convinced when Tazz goes that is his spot then I think he may opt to look elsewhere. Personally I hope he stays but if we need salary relief then he is probably the most highly paid that could go. Leroy (R) will avail some cash. Macca is the other one. My mail is that he was nearly gone last year but bc of the off field stuff stayed but I think he is off this year and possibly to GWS I would think as an uncontracted if Goldsack doesnt go.

Bucks will want to bring in some of the kids he had at u16 level and suspect guys like Adams would be top of the list.

 

[TradeDraft]

Bucks will want to bring in some of the kids he had at u16 level and suspect guys like Adams would be top of the list.

Would Adams be at our 1st Pick or do you think we would have to trade up?

 

[Snoop Dog]

Quicky you got me thinking about list management and particularly how Coach Buckley might think about keeping the list competitive over the next 3-5 years.

This is my analysis;

List Objective

Have a list which can compete for premierships for the next 3 years.

Players expected to leave over next 3 years

Didak, Davis, Krakouer, Jolly, Johnson, Tarrant, Brown. I would also expect Goldsack and McCarthy to leave for salary cap reasons.

Core 22 for next 3 years

List as a whole is in terrific shape for another 3-5 years assuming salary cap doesnt split them which I dont expect it will.

B Maxwell, Brown, Toovey
HB Shaw, Reid, OBrien
C Wellingham, Pendlebury, Thomas
HF Beams, Cloke, Blair
F Sidebottom, Dawes, Fasolo
Foll Jolly, Swan, Ball
Int MacAffer, ????, ????, ????

Depth

These are players that arent considered best 22 right now - Keefe, Thomas, Ugle, Farmer, Gordon, Reilly, Stubbs, Buckley, Ceglar, Sinclair, Seedsman, Young and is considered an assessment of whether their is adequate depth and their prospects of being best 22 players at some point in next 1 - 2 years.

Midfield Depth

Thomas, Seedsman and Sinclair present good midfield depth that provide ball winning (Thomas), x factor (Seedsman) and pace (Sinclair). Jye Bolton developed well and could be considered as a potential best 22 player in the midfield.

Tall fwds

Keefe isnt a fwd and excluding him the only back up is Reilly. He isnt ready and jury is out on whether he will make it. A mature aged back up is crucial and the need is straight away as well as longer term prospects from the National Draft.

Medium fwds

Seedsman is probably the only player on the list that at this stage has shown the development in this area that would have him considered best 22 potential. Farmer should be retained but am not expecting Stubbs to be retained.

Small fwds

Didak, Kraks, Fasolo should all be around for 2 years and hence the area is well covered but excluding them you have Dick and Ugle as the two outside the 22 and both could reasonably be expected to break into the 22 but a mature replacement in case Dick doesnt play may be worthwhile.

Tall backs

Keefe is the obvious back up and with Tarrant likely to play at least one more year this area isnt crucial. Gordon late season form suggests he could be a prospect as well and the development of Hartley suggests he could play best 22 in 2 years. Conclusion would be this area is fine with Tarrant playing next year and Keefe a ready made defensive replacement.

Medium backs

Young and Rounds have both played senior footy this year and appear to have done very well. They are good backups to a very settled back 6 and Simon Buckley is also worth retaining. Sinclair cant be considered as a small back given weakness in disposal efficiency.

Rucks

Jolly will play for another 1 - 2 years so time can be given to Woods to see if he steps up in what are the years that ruckmen 'explode'. Additionally Witts and Ceglar present as genuine best 22 rucks so again this area would not be considered an area of weakness but should be addressed in 12 months.

Conclusion

2011 National Draft - Would focus on key and medium fwds as well as some fellas with pace who can play fwd. A selection for a mature age key forward should also be considered.

 

[TradeDraft]

Conclusion

2011 National Draft - Would focus on key and medium fwds as well as some fellas with pace who can play fwd. A selection for a mature age key forward should also be considered.

That seems to be the Consensus that we need to go Tall and Medium Forwards

 

[Old Spice]

Players expected to leave over next 3 years

Didak, Davis, Krakouer, Jolly, Johnson, Tarrant, Brown. I would also expect Goldsack and McCarthy to leave for salary cap reasons.

I'd add to that Maxy as well.

That's quite a bit to cover. None except Davis will we possibly get anything for. Almost all we will simply lose with no compensation.

To my mind that means we either need to try and keep our best 22 periphery players or trade up for a good pick. I don't mean to suggest by that either that Cafe is not best 22 because I reckon he can be again without injury. Goldy should definitely make it in the back 6/7 in a post-Maxy world.

Another way to look at it to give some visual clarity I think is by lines in 2-3 years time.

Defence:
O'Brien N. Brown Goldsack
Shaw Reid Toovey

Int: Buckley

Depth: Young, Seedsman, Keeffe, Rounds.

Will have lost three talls in Tarrant, L. Brown and Maxwell.

Rambo takes over for Taz. I reckon Goldy is the ideal replacement for Maxy, same height as well. Keeffe projects as more of a defender than a forward at this stage so steps in for Leroy. At a pinch we have enough to go on with, but too thin if we get injuries.

Plenty of small defenders to choose from.

Midfield:
D. Thomas Ball Wellingham
Swan Jolly Pendlebury

Mid Depth: Beams, J. Thomas,
Ruck Depth: Wood, Witts, Ceglar, Keeffe.

Could name more obviously like Sidebottom and Blair who wash through there when not in the forward line. Plenty of others who could do similarly. Not a problem.

Rucks would be an issue if Jolly went down. A discarded ruck might be the ticket here with a late pick.

Forward:
Blair Cloke Fasolo
Dick Dawes Maccaffer

Depth: Sinclair, Ugle

On the smalls, more options with mids and small forwards washing through each line. Can see Rounds easily being moved forward rather than playing in defence.

On the talls, Keeffe is an option, but can’t include him as that’s double book-keeping. Witts is a prospect, but not as a permanent fixture, just a ruck that might float forward.

Conclusion: The obvious conclusion is we need to try and get talls to be ready for this situation in 2-3 years time. Until then though, I reckon we’re well fixed. The problem trying to get a gun forward this year is obviously our pick. Might try and get away with it for another year and go in hard next year for a young tall. That or pick up a J-Pod type this year who can fill the gap and not be too testy about being shaded out by Dawes and Cloke.

The other thing is that actually without Goldsack we might be a little exposed. The problem is though that who will Goldy spill for a permanent gig in defence? Not Rambo, Reid, Taz or Maxy and we won’t go with 4 193 cm+ players in defence, surely. For that reason, and in spite of our best interests, you could understand him looking elsewhere. The Cafe I think projects still as a great player for us, but with the Fasolo / Blair contest in the forward line, and with Sidebum and Beams plonked in the forward line, he might also be looking for more opportunities. He also has the added disadvantage that his wage might be higher than Fasolos. Like to keep him, but again could see why he might develop a wandering eye.

If both of those left, it would free up space and you’d hope to be able to package them up for a 1st round pick upgrade.

 

[TradeDraft]

With Jolly getting Dominated in the 2nd Half of the Season makes me think he could Also Retire

 

[Quicky]

With Jolly getting Dominated in the 2nd Half of the Season makes me think he could Also Retire

Premature and short sighted.

 

[Quicky]

One of my biggests concerns is that while we have a plethora smalls and half forwards we really lack pace up forward and tackling ability.

We have Fasolo, Didak, Beams, Blair, Sidebottom and Krakouer > and if the rumours are true Clarke. Each of these guys lacks either pace or tackling intensity or both. I really wonder whether we may see Rounds or Davis up forward next year because of this.

The fact we are being continually linked to outside midfield types like Stevenson, Ash Smith, Danyle Pearce and Marty Clarke has me wondering about the future of guys like Rounds and McCarthy and their future roles in the side.

In fact on outside mids we have one of the best around in Didak. I'd love to see his fitness at a level that would see him released into the midfield again where he can get lost amongst our stars and find match ups that suit.

It in a way would help fix our forward issue too as I just don't think we could hide Didaks lack of pace and tackling on the half forward line (with the balance of the other smalls there) and it would allow us to play someone else in that role.

 

[blaze036]

We do srsly need to replace davis's tackling pressure... Fasolo maybe? with a better engine and some tackling sessions

 

[ChipDouglas]

My understanding is that Leon is almost certain to go so I think in planning you can assume that will most probably happen. To keep Dawes they will have to let Leon go and probably encourage Ben Johnson to retire or help Goldsack or McCarthy move elsewhere. Still dont think Caf will go but I maybe be wrong. I think a lot depends on where we finish to be honest. WOuldnt mind betting Bucks cuts a few in order to get some good kids in over the next two years to keep the list fresh.

Its quite plausible Bucks could push out Leon and I expect only a 2nd or 3rd round for him. In a weak draft thats fair. Its what Aker got and Leon is as good. BJ wouldnt have much value so its a small contract or retirement this year or next depending on when his deal runs out, Goldsack is starved of opportunities and unless he can be convinced when Tazz goes that is his spot then I think he may opt to look elsewhere. Personally I hope he stays but if we need salary relief then he is probably the most highly paid that could go. Leroy (R) will avail some cash. Macca is the other one. My mail is that he was nearly gone last year but bc of the off field stuff stayed but I think he is off this year and possibly to GWS I would think as an uncontracted if Goldsack doesnt go.

Bucks will want to bring in some of the kids he had at u16 level and suspect guys like Adams would be top of the list.

Where did you get the understanding Leon is certain to go. Is it just a guess? And what evidence do you have that he has to go to keep Dawes? And why would the club encourage BJ to retire when he wants to keep playing? It's not like they're not still playing oustanding football.
You make it sound as if it's all a fait a compli but I doubt thats the case.

If Leon and BJ choose to go on then they will, they won't be forced out as you've suggested. The club hasn't suddenly installed an idiot as coach.

 

[Quicky]

We do srsly need to replace davis's tackling pressure... Fasolo maybe? with a better engine and some tackling sessions

Speeds the biggest issue in the forward half. Fasolo wont help us here. We have too many similar one paced players up forward. They are good players but it doesn't help the balance up forward.

 

[regpies]

Speeds the biggest issue in the forward half. Fasolo wont help us here. We have too many similar one paced players up forward. They are good players but it doesn't help the balance up forward.

We already have that speed forward line player, Brad Dick, just needs to have a good run without injury, Macaffer also comes back from injury.

 

[Hotpiescoldbeers]

How bout andrew Lovett? He applys great forward pressure?

 

[Vampire013]

How bout andrew Lovett? He applys great forward pressure?

Most would say no because he is a flog, but he can play football and really breaks the lines. Used to love his games against Carlton.
He has pace to burn and has that X-factor.
Doubt that we would consider him though !

 

[Old Spice]

Speeds the biggest issue in the forward half. Fasolo wont help us here. We have too many similar one paced players up forward. They are good players but it doesn't help the balance up forward.

Christensen comes to mind as that damaging and lighting quick player. Haven't watched where he sits in the contest, but he's dangerous.

A lot of that is related to game plan. Our small forwards are lock in opportunists or one touch players.

The game plan of Bucks might be entirely different which might have an effect on our list. If we don't play the lock in defensive forward press style, we might be looking for a streaming small forward with pace and finesse.

 

[TheFreshBanana]

If the rumour of us trading pick 25 for Clarke and another kid means that we have to make get rid of 4 players from the senior list (including Brown). So Farmer, Stubbs, Brown and Dick to be re-rookied? That would be my preference.

And I reckon that Mccarthy will leave whether it be a trade or not. He was MM's love child and personally I never saw him perform well at any stage. I reckon Macaffer will stay and the club will want him to stay. Our forward line in the finals series was quite deplorable and Macaffer is currently the only different option we have to change up the forward structures.

I think Goldsack will stay as well, he's been on the fringe of our best 22 for a while and he knows that Johnson and Davis are certainly retiring next year if not this year. Has a pretty strong core of friends here and lives here with his girlfriend.

And next year we need to find someone that has decent pace and can play an outside midfields role. Apart from Thomas we don't have any player that can play a true outside midfielder role. If we do draft Clarke, I expect him to slot down and replace Shaw's position and expect Shaw to have stints in the midfield. Or maybe Rounds might be a part of this plan.

And if we don't draft a mature age Key forward, I will be at a loss for words. Even if it fails we have to give it a shot.