Quigley's 2010 Mock (Not for the hard of reading)

[Richo83]

Yowers.

From a pure outsiders perspective this is a very good draft for us.

Polec - outside/in-out midfielder, good to see he's met Quigley's judgement because Quigley can go to town on some kids, but seemingly he gets picked high and in quigley's opinion justified too. Fills a need and Cotchin shelling it out to Polec passing it to Riewoldt's throat sounds juicy.

Phillips - should we use two top ten picks in three years on a ruck? No. But pick 30? On a guy who sounds like he's a tap technician, it sounds good. Right height too.

Sewell - dare I say it, Barlow mk.II? Maybe not. But it's not inconceivable for the tiggers to use this pick on Sewell, who will add some experience to a very green team, not to mention midfield depth. Fwiw, I expect someone else to pick him up and Damian to continue the youth development, but it's not the craziest idea going around.

Lamb - adds to our forward depth, I don't care if Quigley doesn't like him, at that pick, and given our forwardline is comprised of Jack Riewoldt and a the guy from the Matrix, it's a good pick, it's a good player for the structure of the team, and it's what we need.

So overall one tall, three smalls, two mids and one forward. I know this is ratings not actual picks but it's not a bad effort.

One thing I would like from Quigley is more analysis about Lynch, why he rates him lower than the others, what is it about him that is overrated by others, what leads him to thinking he's low teens not top five etc. It's especially interesting given that other KPP were taken that usually aren't, as in, most recruiters seem to rate Lynch ahead of the top KPD. But Quigs doesn't.

Is it just that he's a bad shot for goal? I don't want to preempt the discussion here but as a CHF, he wouldn't be the first CHF (or tigger forward in general) who can't shoot for shit, and hopefully he'd be the guy to put it in Riewoldt's hands anyway (as in, Jack will probably play closer to goal anyway).

Anyway, great effort, love your work, yada yada, you've heard it all before, but I'll say it, it takes balls to put your thoughts on your line and stand up for controversial opinions. Kudos buddy.

 

[Demon 16]

Love your independent thoughts on the order and on each player mate. Really enjoyed this.

Lycett, Smedts and Conca would make me ecstatic on draft day!

 

[Barnzy]

Very good effort. Good read.

No matter if you get the order right or not, always good to read differing opinions on different players and not go with the stock standard format.

 

[Anjahads]

Awesome Quigs.No more to say than that

 

[Gallions Reach]

tl;dr

 

[Brazen]

A great read on the indivdual player opinions, but it does seem you've tried to mix things up too deliberately this year, and perhaps late in your write-up process, just to be different. For instance Id love to get Bennell, but he looks certain for GC... and it would seem you thought so too originally as you have referenced in our third pick writeup that we have already selected Gaff, not Bennell (and also mention him in our second pick). But a great read on the players none-the-less.

 

[Quigley]

An absolute disaster for Freo. Why would they get another small forward ( Dalhaus ) when they already have Ballantine and Walters. They KP players to back up the aging Pavlich, McPharlin, Grover etc.

Perhaps but at that stage I didn't really rate the KPFs all that much and rated Dalhaus higher. Also with the loss of Haselby and Headland (and Hall) the depth at small forward is a little light I thought and I thought Walters may work up the ground more and he and Dalhaus could swap around between the middle and up forward.

 

[Quigley]

I think you have Jordan Eades far too high. For a start I think you have his height wrong, he is listed at 174cm not 183cm. And for playing in a forward pocket, how many goals did he actually kick? Not that many. Rookie list at best.

hmm I thought the height was too tall but he wasn't up on the AFL website when I wrote him up.

Source of his height in my mock was Inside Football.

 

[Quigley]

Always a pleasure Quigley and this year you have outdone yourself for left field which is great.

The write up on Adreoli is interesting in that u spend more time on the negs than the positives which for a guy who you have so high is interesting.

Personally am surprised a few have dropped out like Johnson, Young, Farmer, Menagola and Chalwell so would be interested in rationale.

Really liked the ODriscoll call. He is one I like but just think a couple of things means rookie. Kruse, Bell also good to and could well go but mate overall enjoyed it bc it is different......very different.

Andreoli was one who I think I had too high and was going to drop him down for a long time. In the end I just left him where he was. In truth I would have been more comfortable with him about 10 places lower.

The Victorians are there abouts but I have gone with the non-Victorians when in doubt. On the West Australians despite me saying not to assume I overlooked anyone I did with Chalwell and Menagola. Its hard to keep on top of the late WA comers and I do tend to play down the WA Colts guys. I have to admit Chalwell was never really on my radar and I may have missed something there.

 

[Quigley]

I do acknowledging the above - but I still find it difficult to come to terms with selections #28 – Ed Curnow [broken leg] and #32 Ben Brown [leg reco], even with your planed on a 3 to 5 five year judgement disclaimer. I struggle with the thought of adding these selections to ‘the unknown recuperation’ of the Lions 2010 injured/injury prone players of the like of Clarke, McGuire, Charman, Bartlett, Drummond, Raines, Adcock, Fev, Brown and Golby.

My lack of first hand knowledge of these players and concerns from a risk management perspective are purely a personal opinion but I think I might have a decent foundation for further discussion…

Many thanks for another MUST READ mock draft post this year Quigs – and huge kudos for sticking to a ‘from another angle’ structured phantom, it certainly instigates discussion and at times counter opinion.

Enjoy your holiday, happy for you not to draft any response until your return.

You have a fair point on the injuries Freddie with Bartlett and Golbie not really working out. Still taking those two guys showed that Hadley is not afraid to take a guy who is carrying an injury if he represents value. If you are getting a guy lower than you otherwise would I have no problem taking another couple of guys who will go into the year with injuries. One injury does not make someone injury prone. If we were going to take those guys we would be going over their injuries with a fine tooth comb and if they got a clean bill of health I would have no problem. Both could be excellent long term prospects and going into this draft I think we will be drafting for the long term.

 

[Quigley]

Dear Quigs,

I commend you on your effort and posting and no doubt you may pick a roughie here and there. I just really think this year you've potentially gone way outside of the box and selected players for "shock" value.

It will be interesting to see on draft day, which recruiters think the same way as yourself. The main benefit of being a BF recruiter is your day job does not depend on your results, hence you have the ability to reach a little more with certain players.

Maybe not thrown in just for shock value but perhaps thrown a few positions higher just to emphasise a point.

If my job and the future of my club was on the line I absolutely would be more cautious but then again I would have more information too. I would like to think I would still back myself though and you only have to have a look at Rendell's top 10 each year to realise how much the professional guys opinions vary not only from us but from each other as well.

 

[THE_GUN]

Hi Quigley,really liked your mock & there are some really interesting selections in there.

The one that took my notice was lynch & how late you had him, with richmond in the race for either lynch,polec or heppell i am really curious why you had him so low where many seem to believe he will go between 5-10.

Also last year you had ben griffiths at pick 7 how do you rate lynch to griffiths, do you rate griffiths that much higher even considering that this year we would probably add another 15 odd players that were removed due to gc's priority 17 yo that were taken, it would bring lynch to mid 30's

Thanks in advance

 

[Lach72]

An absolute disaster for Freo. Why would they get another small forward ( Dalhaus ) when they already have Ballantine and Walters. They KP players to back up the aging Pavlich, McPharlin, Grover etc.

Indeed....urge to vomit

 

[Richo83]

So quigs, what do you think about Lynch? I posted some questions on post 51 of this thread.

 

[Richo83]

Hi Quigley,really liked your mock & there are some really interesting selections in there.

The one that took my notice was lynch & how late you had him, with richmond in the race for either lynch,polec or heppell i am really curious why you had him so low where many seem to believe he will go between 5-10.

Also last year you had ben griffiths at pick 7 how do you rate lynch to griffiths, do you rate griffiths that much higher even considering that this year we would probably add another 15 odd players that were removed due to gc's priority 17 yo that were taken, it would bring lynch to mid 30's

Thanks in advance

This in particular is a really good point.

Benjamin Griffiths (Eastern Ranges, VIC)
Height: 198cm, Weight: 97kg, DOB: 17/09/91

For me he has the most talent of any key position in the draft. The big problem for him so far is that he seems to be made from tissue paper and is always injured. Notwithstanding that I still take him at the ahead of any other key position because I think he is the only one I can see being a dominant 75 goal per year full forward. Teams that have taken the risk on injured top talent in the last few years have been well rewarded and I see that continuing for whoever ends up with Griffiths. I will be betting there are a few teams picking in the teens that are praying he gets through to them. Lets start first with size and this guy is massive man already. At 198.5cm tall and already 97kgs he is going to worry virtually any fullback in the competition. When you combine that with very strong hands and pretty good athleticism he will be giving them nightmares. This is not a failed ruckman or ruckman wanna-be forward, this is a legitimate forward who has the height of a ruckman. He played at both full forward and half forward during the champs and although he showed he can move nicely and provide a marking target as a half forward I do not think there is any doubt that his best position is at full forward. He did not test at camp so I am a little in the dark on his actual speed but from the naked eye he seems pretty good without being great and I would expect him to be between 3 and 3.1 over the 20. He may struggle a little for separation at AFL level but he has enough pace to cause issues. On top of his height he has good jumping abilities and can get up for the ball both off one leg and off two. In fact his jump and mark from a stationary or contested pack situation is a feature of his game. At half forward he tends to play a little high and this takes him out of being a goal threat and, as he is primarily a goal scoring player, he needs to consider this. Also when he is playing at full forward I notice that he tends to lead to the pockets a little too much. He does seem comfortable slotting them from there but I believe he goes there as his first option too often. As mentioned he does kick them pretty comfortably from the pockets and unlike players like Butcher he is a very good kick for goal. He is a thumping kick with a range out to at least 55 and he is a dead eye dick to boot. He has good technique, very big hands, controls the drop well and really follows through nicely. Around the ground he is a reasonable but not great worker and does chase back defensively a bit. He is not a big tackler but does finish them nicely when he gets his hands on the ball carrier. When he gets the ball outside his range he takes good options and handballs well and is a nice field kick with good penetration and weighting on his passes. He does not get a huge amount of possessions outside 50 though and I think his endurance levels are not what they could be. This is a likely by-product of the amount of time he has spent on the sidelines with injury. Below the knees he has very nice clean hands for a big man. I watched his game against NSW at the Champs live and his first half was as dominant a performance as you will see from a full forward at that level. He was unstoppable and with the package he has I do not see any reason why he could not do the same at AFL level. He has the potential to be the next Plugger and someone will take a punt on him and a lot earlier than most expect. I would have no trouble taking him between 5 and 10 if I needed a forward.

Sounds like the bees knees, in an uncompromised draft, between 5 and 10, and remember, this guy is injury prone. Now lets look at Lynch:

Tom Lynch
DOB 31/10/92 Ht 199 Wt 86

There is a lot of talk of Lynch going high in the draft perhaps as high as Richmond at 6. He is a nice prospect but personally I think that is a bit high. With that said I probably have him too low here and I am already thinking that I am wrong but I can’t be bothered rearranging my top 20. There are not a lot of KPF targets who I rate and Lynch was probably the third best, draft eligible prospect that I saw this year. Most would concede Day as the clear cut best prospect available this year and I was massively keen on Bruce before he was claimed by GWS. Lynch reminds me a lot of Mitch Clark and the new interchange rules could be a massive boon for Lynch. His growth spurt puts him firmly in consideration for a team in need of a guy who can double as a second ruck. Lynch is first and foremost a KPF but being able to give some time in the ruck suddenly makes him much more valuable.

As a forward he main weapon are his workrate and his marking. He has very nice hands and judges the ball in the air better than most other players. He is not sucked into a contest and backs his own judgement usually to good effect. He takes the ball in flight in a spot that is to his advantage and varies it well depending on the situation e.g. he will take it at its highest point with players all around and out in front more when he has an opponent on his back. Like Clark he is not particularly slippery off the mark but when he finally works up to top speed his top gear is pretty good and he can hold that speed for an extended period which tends to burn off other players his size. He tested woefully in the 20m (a Temel type time) but surprisingly good in the 30m repeat sprints with his 20-30m splits being very impressive apparently. So in the AFL I can see there being plenty of head shaking as this guy who looks so slow when he takes off is suddenly running away from defenders.

He plays often as a wide ranging CHF getting up onto the wing as a marking target for his mids to outlet to. His agility is pretty good for such a tall man and he is very tenacious and continues to pursue the ball. He last couple of games at the Champs were red hot but some of his earlier work was not to the same standard. He needs to work on his consistency not just between games but within games as well and concentrate on putting in a four quarter performance. With his style of play I would have expected a bigger return than the 13 possessions and 4 marks per game he returned at the Champs.

Another similarity to Clark is the disparity between his around the ground kicking and his kicking for goal. Around the ground Lynch seems well balanced and punches his short to intermediate length kicks very nicely and will usually find his man well. He is certainly a tall that his teammates should not have any hesitation playing through. His longer kicking and kicking for goal though are a different story and could be described as unreliable. With his set shot he has a last minute hitch in his run up which tends to throw off his balance and disrupts his ball drop. As a consequence his kicking for goal is erratic and certainly poorer than you would expect from a guy you might be looking to invest a top 10 pick in. Lynch is a little awkward on his left but by the same token is not afraid to use it and credit too him it usually manages to find the target.

I like the competitiveness he demonstrates on the field and the body language he exhibits inspires confidence. He had a nice finish to the year in the TAC which only helps his cause but I am a little reluctant to mark this kind of form up too much for KPFs as they are too often matched up on guys with greatly inferior height and skill. Still I believe he is a good prospect and one who should have found a new home by half way through the first round on draft day.

Overall he could be a Mitch Clark clone as a wide ranging KPF prospect with the height to play as a ruck but also with significant goal kicking issues in need of addressing.

Let me put this in context, as you said, the u-18s have been pooled off, which means in an uncompromised draft, this sounds more like 20-30.

So Griffiths, who is injury prone is 5-10, and Lynch, who isn't, is approx 20-30, maybe lower.

Question is, what is separating these two so much? These two kinda seem similar, one is a better shot I gathered. I'm guessing Lynch is slower too.

 

[sydney eagle]

I'll be shocked if West Coast get Bennell (pleased, but shocked) and you seem to have left Brennan out of the Eagles draft .

 

[Quigley]

Griffiths and Lynch are both two huge key position forward prospects. I rated Griffiths higher because I thought he could kick goals whereas I think that will always be a weakness of Lynch. Lynch will take plenty of marks and will cover some ground but I have serious doubts whether he will ever be a decent goal kicker and that is what I usually want out of a KPF. Griffiths I was seeing as developing into a potential Coleman candidate. Lynch more of a Cloke type - handy but not elite as far as goal kicking goes. I may be wrong on both counts but then again I may not.

 

[Quigley]

I'll be shocked if West Coast get Bennell (pleased, but shocked) and you seem to have left Brennan out of the Eagles draft .

You're right I didn't include Brennan but is he set for a spot yet? I had thought it was the WC last pick.

 

[Demonheart]

Great work Quigley, and greatly appreciated
After Melbourne's picks are called out your mock drafts are one of the first threads I instantly refer back to to find out more about the kids.

Melbourne's first pick is going to be interesting. We have an immediate need for a big body in the forward line and it's also that we have no instant backup for Jamar, however we already have three young (ish) develping rucks on our list, Spencer, Gawn and Fitzpatrick (I don't rate Martin as a ruck so I'll leave him out). With the changing sub rule on the interchange bench can a club afford to have four devloping rucks on a list?

Lycett does look like a quality young kid though, obviously he is rated higher at the same age than the other guys on our list, but Melbourne has rarely gone for a ruck in the first round, than I can remember anyway. The fact that you mentioned he can go also forward with success though has me sold, you're a good salesman

I still wouldn't be surprised if we went for a quick, skilled midfielder though. Bailey has often said that you can't have too many mids, especially as you can also play them HFF or HBF.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

I can't grasp how some people rate these mocks based on who their club "got", rather than the information and effort that goes into writing the profile. That's the real gold. Especially (as Demonheart says) after the draft when you go back and find more out about the players your club drafted.

As always, an interesting and informative read Quigs. Definitely not unappreciated!

 

[Vigour]

You're right I didn't include Brennan but is he set for a spot yet? I had thought it was the WC last pick.

yes, Brennan is locked in as a father-son selection at 62, see:

http://www.afl.com.au/selection order/tabid/16748/default.aspx


so Weagles only live picks are 4, 26, 29, which is as you have it.

mighty effort, well done!

 

[T4P]

Hi Quigley,
The way you've portrayed Heppell in this gives the idea that Heppell is not worthy of a top 20 maybe not even top 30 pick. You've focused almost entirely on his downsides, only mentioning the draft camp results and his kicking as positives. You cannot claim me to be looking through rose-coloured glasses as I have never seen any of the draftees play, only relying on many phantom drafts, news reports and reviews. I respect your view and take it into consideration, but what do you think are the in-game positive qualities he possesses apart from the one named in kicking?

 

[tigers_of_old_08]

Superb effort! - thanks for sharing.

 

[Quigley]

Hi Quigley,
The way you've portrayed Heppell in this gives the idea that Heppell is not worthy of a top 20 maybe not even top 30 pick. You've focused almost entirely on his downsides, only mentioning the draft camp results and his kicking as positives. You cannot claim me to be looking through rose-coloured glasses as I have never seen any of the draftees play, only relying on many phantom drafts, news reports and reviews. I respect your view and take it into consideration, but what do you think are the in-game positive qualities he possesses apart from the one named in kicking?

You are right in that I did tend to focus on the negatives. This was largely to justify my dropping him down the order. I see him as middle of the pack on a lot of things but not really exceptional at many. The main positives for him I see as:

- His attitude. This kid is held on very high regard and the work he has put in to improving himself is a credit too him. He has outstanding professionalism for a young guy and has a willingness to work hard and learn. Very coachable.

- His ability to get to good positions. As he showed toward the end of the year in particular the kid can rack them up. He works to excellent places to receive and can get himself open.

- His hands both overhead and below the knees are good. He needs to work on his hands in the ruck contest in particular but in most other aspects of the game he shows nice clean hands. As I mentioned I have some concerns about his current core strength but if he can improve this he would have better balance over the ball and in the aird and his hands could become exceptional.

- He has good height and a very nice leap and again if he could improve his core strength he could be a difficult prospect to mark over top of.

- His kicking style is very nice although I noted he tends to kick to a contest too much at the moment. This might be something which could be coached out of him and perhaps playing with AFL players who run harder to get open further down the ground he could be the weapon that many see him as.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

Awesome Q.