Preview R10: Changes vs. Collingwood

[1970crow]

Why are you so defensive and deflecting?

How do you rate Curtins last 5 games?

You don’t think it’s reasonable to have more patience with young players with high ceilings than bottom few of the 22 senior players. Is winning this week more important to you than developing a flag competing group?

Our philosophies have continually failed us, Port made 5 changes and got within a goal of a supposedly superior 22. Pies beat Freo away resting 4 senior players, we’d never do either of those things. Thankfully we’re persisting with Curtin, which is an improvement on previous norms, but there’s still a way to go.

 

[1970crow]

13 from 14 games unless we make finals

I’ve been 1 out all year.

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

Would like to see how Curtin goes in the team without Tex. Must persist regardless.

In: Draper, Bond
Out: Milera, Tex

 

[Mostyn]

Huh? Dawson is leading the competition and one of the Brownlow favourites

Curtin and Milera are playing completely different roles.

Milera is being gifted the easiest ride in the team and should be offering plenty but is just chugging along, having minimal impact most weeks.

To be fair, Dawson has made a surprising amount of errors in recent weeks. He's had a bit of a slump after a good start. He had multiple errors as bad as that you said Milera should apologise for.

 

[CrowToon]

Tex cannot be allowed to go to Melbourne imo. On a bigger ground his lack of mobility isn't going to help us. Give him a rest. 9/9 in a season he was meant to be getting managed through is insane.

Curtin should go but we should be prepared to sub him off like last night if we are still finding ourselves a bit tall against Collingwood/Curtin ineffectual. I just dont want him rested/omitted for WC. Perfect game to kick a couple of snags.

I really do worry that Collingwood will carve us up in the air (Thilthorpe notwithstanding). They have a good set of defenders aerially and I feel it'll be on the ground where we need to find our goals. We have an underrated smalls brigade that can do it. If we just bomb the ball in next week we will find it rebounding quickly. Again, good reason to give 1.5 talls a break.

I'd like to see a Pedlar come into sub for that reason. Berry can move to best 22.

Pedlar can then come on to give us an extra small forward that can win the hard ball (if he is still doing at SANFL what he showed himself capable of in his early AFL games).


Milera just has to go for team standards - he isn't getting stuck in when we need him to. It isnt his role to always be that guy but when its your turn you gotta go and he is always just standing at the edge wanting the dish. Wayne it's gotta be you sometimes. Oh and dont kick corridor with 5 mins to go - too risky.

Who comes in? Tell Chayce Jones

1

Chayce Jones

Age

25

Ht

180cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.0

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

4.6

3star

M

1.7

2star

T

1.9

4star

CL

1.3

3star

D

8.9

2star

K

4.9

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

1.4

2star

T

1.6

3star

CL

1.1

3star

D

9.4

3star

K

4.4

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

1.8

4star

CL

0.8

3star

its his last chance. Pies at the G, no bigger test. He will get plenty of opportunities to show his credentials.

Maybe Soligo needs a break too, I'm heartbroken but willing to downgrade him to a future dual Brownlow Medallist from triple. Berry coming in helps there. Who else? Sid - let him onto the MCG.

Out: Tex, Soligo, Milera
In: Pedlar, Draper, ??? Ill keep thinking on that

 

[1970crow]

Not the person you asked, but I think he has been fairly good when graded on a curve that he's a second year developing tall. Thought he was poor last night - didn't do anything too bad but did not impact the game.

His four games before that have been good enough to hold his spot, occasionally a bit better than that. I think sometimes people on here are too generous with young players based on potential alone but Curtin has shown a fair bit at times this year. Keen to persist with him, give or take the occasional rest.

He’s a developing tall playing ahead of the ball that shares in 8% of forward entries to players not Tex, TT, Fog or Keays. Looking at stats and ignoring structure and game style is fairly simplistic.

 

[steve9798]

Probably too late now but given we don't have an elite midfielder, we need to develop a tagger (Bond) to minimize the impact the oppositions elite midfielder has on the game. We also need to bring back Draper given he is the only potential elite midfielder we have on our list.

We are going to get smashed in the midfield. Collingwood by plenty.

Out: Milera, Nankervis, Curtin
In: Edwards, Draper, Bond

 

[119others]

You don’t think it’s reasonable to have more patience with young players with high ceilings than bottom few of the 22 senior players. Is winning this week more important to you than developing a flag competing group?

Our philosophies have continually failed us, Port made 5 changes and got within a goal of a supposedly superior 22. Pies beat Freo away resting 4 senior players, we’d never do either of those things. Thankfully we’re persisting with Curtin, which is an improvement on previous norms, but there’s still a way to go.

Of course younger players need more patience, esp high end ones with the ultimate likely payoff. But isn’t that EXACTLY what we have been showing Curtin this year? For 9 games now.

He has shown glimpses but overall has been our worst player on the park in half of the games. We are carrying him. And I have been comfortable giving him an extended run but at some point this needs to run out.

BUT he also needs to maintain his end of the bargain. If we lose a close game (could have been last night) or next week vs Pies and he is effectively a liability getting a possession every 30 minutes is it not reasonable to ask is he going to cost us a game with his ineffectiveness? ANYONE else would get more than 3 possessions in almost three quarters.

The lad has a bright future and we have shown great faith, doesn’t mean we have to keep,picking him week after week when he is averaging 7 possessions a game over an extended period. Drop him to the SANFL for a fe weeks, let him get his confidence back and then bring him back again. playing 16-18 minor round games in his second year for a 197cm player seems pretty reasonable to me considering he ain’t doing anything currently

 

[ABAB]

Probably too late now but given we don't have an elite midfielder, we need to develop a tagger (Bond) to minimize the impact the oppositions elite midfielder has on the game. We also need to bring back Draper given he is the only potential elite midfielder we have on our list.

We are going to get smashed in the midfield. Collingwood by plenty.

Out: Milera, Nankervis, Curtin
In: Edwards, Draper, Bond

Dawson made AA as a midfielder and is leading the AFLCA this year so likely will make AA as a midfielder again. He need to learn to break the tag either forward or back. Rankine has already shown he can play midfield at an elite level.

 

[1970crow]

Of course younger players need more patience, esp high end ones with the ultimate likely payoff. But isn’t that EXACTLY what we have been showing Curtin this year? For 9 games now.

He has shown glimpses but overall has been our worst player on the park in half of the games. We are carrying him. And I have been comfortable giving him an extended run but at some point this needs to run out.

BUT he also needs to maintain his end of the bargain. If we lose a close game (could have been last night) or next week vs Pies and he is effectively a liability getting a possession every 30 minutes is it not reasonable to ask is he going to cost us a game with his ineffectiveness? ANYONE else would get more than 3 possessions in almost three quarters.

The lad has a bright future and we have shown great faith, doesn’t mean we have to keep,picking him week after week when he is averaging 7 possessions a game over an extended period. Drop him to the SANFL for a fe weeks, let him get his confidence back and then bring him back again. playing 16-18 minor round games in his second year for a 197cm player seems pretty reasonable to me considering he ain’t doing anything currently

He’s averaging 9 disposals as a 4th tall forward who has next to no entries directed to. Tex, TT and Fog are averaging 13, 13 & 11 whilst sharing in 92% of forward entry targets and all having greater TOG. You’re being pretty harsh on a guy who spends half his time being told to run where the ball isn’t going to go. And yet he’s still not far behind the big 3 for possessions.

 

[FullyBigKPro]

Outs:
Tex (rested)
Taylor
Milera

Ins:
Bond
Smith
Draper

Curtin to play the Tex role forward
Bond to hard tag Naicos
Milera dropped as simply making too many brainfades and anyone would be better in that role, literally a trained Labrador could play half back in the comp now and look good.

 

[Carn The Texan]

No , there fines now.

Besides that ‘kick’ was t even worth the free

Keane has already been fined five times (all for tripping, weirdly) but there's nothing in this "kicking" charge. Agree the free kick was ridiculous.

 

[NSolis]

He’s averaging 9 disposals as a 4th tall forward who has next to no entries directed to. Tex, TT and Fog are averaging 13, 13 & 11 whilst sharing in 92% of forward entry targets and all having greater TOG. You’re being pretty harsh on a guy who spends half his time being told to run where the ball isn’t going to go. And yet he’s still not far behind the big 3 for possessions.

Curtin's not playing as a 4th tall getting most of his ball in the forward line at this point in the season. No issues at all with Curtin's place in the side but you can't compare his possession count with Walker, Thilthorpe and Fogarty because those players are kicking goals and getting most of their ball in dangerous positions up forward. Walker averages 1.89 goals from his 13.44 disposals, Fogarty 2.62 from 11 disposals and Thilthorpe 2.56 from 13.44 disposals. Walker gets up the ground the most of the three based on the structure we play but it's still very different from Curtin who averages 0.44 goals from 9.33 disposals and has kicked one behind in the last 4 games.

Curtin's playing up around the wing a lot, and if you look at his heat maps most of his ball has been up the ground or even in defence in the last month. Last night was 67% defensive half (only 3 touches obviously), Carlton was 42% defensive half, Freo was 38% defensive half, GWS was 78% defensive half etc.

Anyway this is all somewhat beside the point of his selection but I don't think it's accurate to say he's just camped out in the forward line and not getting targeted. He's playing around the ball quite a bit but struggled to get involved in the game last night, which is fine because he's a developing tall who has played under 20 games and last week against Carlton was his best AFL game. It's just a matter of making sure he's getting the best opportunities to keep developing.

 

[Not Darryl Moss]

Three wishes: Pedlar in for Tex. McAndrew in for Rob. Smith for Milera ?

 

[Cromulant]

Keane has already been fined five times (all for tripping, weirdly) but there's nothing in this "kicking" charge. Agree the free kick was ridiculous.

Let alone a report

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

Tex seems to be really labouring now, give him a rest for a week - he has to be managed through this year.

Bang. I’ve said no to resting Tex including those calling for him to be rested in round 3 or 4 (lol).

But now is the time to give him a break. Get some more speed in the team for the MCG next week.

If not this week then definitely next week vs WCE.

 

[119others]

He’s averaging 9 disposals as a 4th tall forward who has next to no entries directed to. Tex, TT and Fog are averaging 13, 13 & 11 whilst sharing in 92% of forward entry targets and all having greater TOG. You’re being pretty harsh on a guy who spends half his time being told to run where the ball isn’t going to go. And yet he’s still not far behind the big 3 for possessions.

That’s a reasonable counter argument but in simple terms he just isn’t doing enough. Especially the last 5 weeks averaging 7 possies.

Are you not underwhelmed at all by his form over this period?

I would think Curtin likely gets dropped this week. Ideally just for 1-2 weeks. Let’s see how it plays out.

 

[Mutineer]

Surely Tex needs a week off, he could barely break out of a trot last night. Pedlar his replacement who was pretty good yesterday in the SANFL? Could rotate forward/mid with Rankine and Rachele?

 

[TARANTULA]

Playing Curtin for the sake of playing him when he doesn't seem to have clear role is not working imo. As a foward he doesn't kick goals. As a mid he doesn't touch the ball. As a defender? He seems lost right now. Would you even notice if he wasn't on the park?

Also Cummimg is being wasted on the wing. Move him back to defense, his natural position. Whether it's for Milera or Laird. Then get Edwards or Dowling on the wing.

 

[1970crow]

Curtin's not playing as a 4th tall getting most of his ball in the forward line at this point in the season. No issues at all with Curtin's place in the side but you can't compare his possession count with Walker, Thilthorpe and Fogarty because those players are kicking goals and getting most of their ball in dangerous positions up forward. Walker averages 1.89 goals from his 13.44 disposals, Fogarty 2.62 from 11 disposals and Thilthorpe 2.56 from 13.44 disposals. Walker gets up the ground the most of the three based on the structure we play but it's still very different from Curtin who averages 0.44 goals from 9.33 disposals and has kicked one behind in the last 4 games.

Curtin's playing up around the wing a lot, and if you look at his heat maps most of his ball has been up the ground or even in defence in the last month. Last night was 67% defensive half (only 3 touches obviously), Carlton was 42% defensive half, Freo was 38% defensive half, GWS was 78% defensive half etc.

Anyway this is all somewhat beside the point of his selection but I don't think it's accurate to say he's just camped out in the forward line and not getting targeted. He's playing around the ball quite a bit but struggled to get involved in the game last night, which is fine because he's a developing tall who has played under 20 games and last week against Carlton was his best AFL game. It's just a matter of making sure he's getting the best opportunities to keep developing.

That’s the point though. Those 3 also work up the ground and gain possessions. He’s not afforded the opportunity inside the 50 to be a target where he could easily add another 3 or 4 touches and kick 1 or 2 goals each week. If the other guys decoy led away and left him to compete against the 4th tall defender, it’d be a hell of a mismatch.

In reality he’s playing as a high half forward/3rd wingman. Wingman tend to struggle to get to 20 touches as it is. Swap him for Tex or Fog and I doubt we’d be any worse off in terms of goal scoring or possession stats. And I doubt they’d be doing any better than 9 touches if they were being played in his role.

 

[Crow_68]

Bond has to come in this week as the match-up for Hill or Elliott.

 

[1970crow]

That’s a reasonable counter argument but in simple terms he just isn’t doing enough. Especially the last 5 weeks averaging 7 possies.

Are you not underwhelmed at all by his form over this period?

I would think Curtin likely gets dropped this week. Ideally just for 1-2 weeks. Let’s see how it plays out.

I’m not, if you checked my posting prior to round 1, I was never happy with playing 4 talls ahead of the ball. I know he spends a lot of time pushing up the ground, but unless you’re getting into the contest, there’s not a lot of possessions to share between 3 wingmen. I’d rather an extra mid or genuine half forward type, but I’m happy carrying Curtin until Tex goes. We’re not winning the flag this year, so might as well get games into him.

 

[radiojake]

So do we get to watch Daicos absolutely destroy it in the midfield like we just watched with Butters ?
Collingwood aren't just gonna end up bombing it where Dixon used to be

 

[Barneythecrab]

It’s time to play a midfield mix of Berry, Draper, Rachelle, Rankine, Peatling and soligo.
Dawson to wing/halfback

 

[Mutineer]

It won't happen but Bond has been very good in the SANFL all season and his kicking has improved immeasurabily, would seem to match up well on Hill and could even be worth a shot on Daicos if as expected he gets off the chain, Hughey has the mongrel and discipline required.