Preview R3: Changes vs. Geelong Cats

[Golumless]

I like this whole post except I think we probably won’t win. Keane is a big loss on the attacking front, and when he went down we should have rejigged the backline.

Also Laird -> Bond doesn’t help with the lack of attacking problem.

It probably does, but that says more about just how much Laird has become a shell of himself in the last two weeks.

I don't mind keeping the backline as is with Keane's loss, you may as well maximise Worrell instead of hitting your other big interceptor. It's the loss of Hinge that is really biting at this point, especially with Laird's issues.

 

[Elder van Berlo]

I like this whole post except I think we probably won’t win. Keane is a big loss on the attacking front, and when he went down we should have rejigged the backline.

Also Laird -> Bond doesn’t help with the lack of attacking problem.

I'm not saying it does. Moving Cook back there helps it. Any more risks unbalancing it in the other direction.

 

[FR0GGY]

Laird jones out
Nank and a winger in

Nank to wing
Cook and cumming behind the ball, need another winger.

 

[Scorpus]

It probably does, but that says more about just how much Laird has become a shell of himself in the last two weeks.

For all Laird's faults, he is a much more attacking player than Bond

Bond averages around 200 net meters gained (so personal meters plus assisted meters). Laird averages in the 450-600 net meters range recently, depending on the season

Even though he's personally not a high meters player, he gets enough ball himself and dishes it off well enough to provide some ball movement. And these days you'd probably want him handing it off more often than disposing it himself

Bond's ball movement stats are in the range of Nick Murray and Jordon Butts while his personal disposal quality stats are similar to Laird (eg kick retention). So far in his career he has been a purely defensive player.

 

[Mutineer]

I like this whole post except I think we probably won’t win. Keane is a big loss on the attacking front, and when he went down we should have rejigged the backline.

Also Laird -> Bond doesn’t help with the lack of attacking problem.

Bond might be the future if he's given the opportunities->Laird most certainly isn't the future.

 

[Mutineer]

For all Laird's faults, he is a much more attacking player than Bond

Bond averages around 200 net meters gained (so personal meters plus assisted meters). Laird averages in the 450-600 net meters range, depending on the season

Even though he's personally not a high meters player, he gets enough ball himself and dishes it off well enough to provide some ball movement. And these days you'd probably want him handing it off more often than disposing it himself

Bond's ball movement stats are in the range of Nick Murray and Jordon Butts while his personal disposal quality stats are similar to Laird (eg kick retention). So far in his career he has been a purely defensive player.

Bond 13 games - 21 y.o.
Laird 271 games - 32 y.o.

Spot the difference.

 

[Elder van Berlo]

For all Laird's faults, he is a much more attacking player than Bond

Bond averages around 200 net meters gained (so personal meters plus assisted meters). Laird averages in the 450-600 net meters range recently, depending on the season

Even though he's personally not a high meters player, he gets enough ball himself and dishes it off well enough to provide some ball movement. And these days you'd probably want him handing it off more often than disposing it himself

Bond's ball movement stats are in the range of Nick Murray and Jordon Butts while his personal disposal quality stats are similar to Laird (eg kick retention). So far in his career he has been a purely defensive player.

FWIW I'm not saying I'm dropping Laird for Bond. It would be a close thing but I'd like to see what Laird does with a bit more flair around him. I suggested that change because I can't see how Laird gets up this week and I reckon Bond is his best replacement provided Cook goes back.

The concept of Laird does what you say. I'm not convinced Rory Actual 2026 Laird does that. But it's hard to say for sure. Small sample size, stagnant movement around him, and pinged a calf in Q1 on Friday night. It was actually seriously brave (query - prudent) for him to stay out there at all.

The interconnection between personnel and style makes these things really hard to isolate. Is Laird a major factor in the awful ball movement? Is the absence of creativity around him a factor in his disposal decisions? Probably both.

It's why the whole "awful game plan sack Nicks" vs "what we saw is probably not the plan" debate is nuanced and probably neither side is totally right, or totally wrong.

 

[Scorpus]

Bond 13 games - 21 y.o.
Laird 271 games - 32 y.o.

Spot the difference.

I haven't seen anything in Bond's career so far to suggest he's an offensive option, compared to someone like Luke Nankervis in his first games

 

[Scorpus]

FWIW I'm not saying I'm dropping Laird for Bond. It would be a close thing but I'd like to see what Laird does with a bit more flair around him. I suggested that change because I can't see how Laird gets up this week and I reckon Bond is his best replacement provided Cook goes back.

The concept of Laird does what you say. I'm not convinced Rory Actual 2026 Laird does that. But it's hard to say for sure. Small sample size, stagnant movement around him, and pinged a calf in Q1 on Friday night. It was actually seriously brave (query - prudent) for him to stay out there at all.

The interconnection between personnel and style makes these things really hard to isolate. Is Laird a major factor in the awful ball movement? Is the absence of creativity around him a factor in his disposal decisions? Probably both.

It's why the whole "awful game plan sack Nicks" vs "what we saw is probably not the plan" debate is nuanced and probably neither side is totally right, or totally wrong.

Hey I'm no Laird fan, I'm just saying if the issue is ball movement, Bond is not the guy at all. His selection along with Murray, Butts and Michalanney makes our defensive unit too lockdown

I personally would be playing Milera, Nankervis and one of Cook or Cumming off half back as my first choices

 

[jenny61_99]

Edwards any chance for this week?

 

[Gtowncrow]

Edwards any chance for this week?

If he can run the game out better then Jake, he's in for mine.

Can't see it in reality though. The injuries will be as much change as Nicks can tolerate.

 

[Golumless]

For all Laird's faults, he is a much more attacking player than Bond

Bond averages around 200 net meters gained (so personal meters plus assisted meters). Laird averages in the 450-600 net meters range, depending on the season

Even though he's personally not a high meters player, he gets enough ball himself and dishes it off well enough to provide some ball movement. And these days you'd probably want him handing it off more often than disposing it himself

Bond's ball movement stats are in the range of Nick Murray and Jordon Butts while his personal disposal quality stats are similar to Laird (eg kick retention)

Yeah, I'm not too worried about what Laird is historically here though, I do fully agree, Laird 2013--2025 wipes the floor with Bond offensively. It's the Laird of the last two weeks that has me spooked. Too much has fallen apart too quickly.

The first thing to note in these two weeks is Laird isn't handing it off as much. All throughout his career, Laird has been kicking it around 45-50% of the time, with a slight spike to 53.9% last year. In the first two weeks this year, that number has skyrocketed to 65.1% (spikes that have also been seen in everyone other than Worrell/Milera). It's also not that Laird hasn't had the opportunities for those quick handballs, he's just not taking them. This has bled into a meters per kick of 15.1 m this year, whereas last year that was 22.9 m (and higher when he was an inside midfielder) and rebound 50s where it's gone from 3.7 last year to 2.5 this. The net meters have remained almost constant (though with an 80 m decrease in meters gained, which puts this number on watch for over performing), though it's worth noting both Worrell/Milera have increased by >60 m in the last two weeks. The other warning sign is ball winning, as Laird has regressed from 7.7 contested possessions/6.1 ground balls wins to 4.5 contested possessions/4 ground ball wins which indicates he's not getting to (or is unable to get separation in) more contests and this also bleeding into handball receives where he's gone from 8.7 last year to 3.5 this year (and it's not like we're not hand balling in the backline, seeing Worrell/Milera have gone from ~5.5 to ~7.5).

I think one of the big issues our ball movement has hit is Laird isn't able to be the guy you are mentioning, but we're still in the "shocked" phase of a player falling off a cliff. Where we are still looking for him to be a key player in driving the ball forwards when we're trying to get out of the backline but he just can't. We are probably at the stage that just removing him as a option likely causes an offensive spike without factoring in who replaces him.

 

[croweater 41]

2 we knew about 1 had a ? and 1 is a bit of a surprise.

 

[Mutineer]

Another short turnaround...AFL doing AFL

 

[Cromulant]

2 we knew about 1 had a ? and 1 is a bit of a surprise.

Nothing in the scans for Laird and Woz, id expect a light week on the track.

Dawson was cramping all last quarter, just doesnt look fit.

 

[CrowBloke]

I say the runners this week should be considered highly.

Who've you got in mind? <== not a trap question. I'd really like to know.

 

[Trigger13]

Nothing in the scans for Laird and Woz, id expect a light week on the track.

Dawson was cramping all last quarter, just doesnt look fit.

Dawson’s foot was also trodden on. Hopefully it hasn’t aggravated that old injury.

 

[Samcro24]

I think we can get a win at the cattery

 

[CrowBloke]

I would try Dawson back in Lairds spot

and just drive it forward time and time again

In Years 11 and 12 I was 'technically' a 2nd Ruck but I used to just float all around the ground like a mid (very fit back then from bikeriding to school, 36Kms every day, long story), rucking, but then positioning one kick behind the play. I'd intercept, and kick torps forward. Our Coach was a Maths teacher, nice bloke but footy-clueless, and he let me play Wanderer.

I'd like to see Dawson in a role like that, positioning himself wherever the hell he wants, as he sees fit, to generate drive forward as you suggested.
I know, I know ... but, but ... AFL structure/ shape/ zoning etc .

 

[Golumless]

Injuries cover Laird , Ah Chee and Soligo

Nicks wont expend one more player

I would try Dawson back in Lairds spot and just drive it forward time and time again

It's not the worst shout, especially as you could give the 70-75% midfield time to Rachele. You'd need to find a rotation to get Dawson into the midfield, but that can be done with a Nankervis type who can play both wing and half back flank.

 

[CrowBloke]

Laird jones out
Nank and a winger in

Nank to wing
Cook and cumming behind the ball, need another winger.

Ah Chee, hammy. Who comes in for him?

 

[GreyCrow]

It's not the worst shout, especially as you could give the 70-75% midfield time to Rachele. You'd need to find a rotation to get Dawson into the midfield, but that can be done with a Nankervis type who can play both wing and half back flank.

Yep its not an exclusive dont move from that spot but primarily used as a driving force - meaning the opposition must cover both Dawson and Milera

If Dawson feels the need to go into the middle Nank or Cook drops back 1 line and Rachele floats in that forward space

 

[Samcro24]

In Years 11 and 12 I was 'technically' a 2nd Ruck but I used to just float all around the ground like a mid (very fit back then from bikeriding to school, 36Kms every day, long story), rucking, but then positioning one kick behind the play. I'd intercept, and kick torps forward. Our Coach was a Maths teacher, nice bloke but footy-clueless, and he let me play Wanderer.

I'd like to see Dawson in a role like that, positioning himself wherever the hell he wants, as he sees fit, to generate drive forward as you suggested.
I know, I know ... but, but ... AFL structure/ shape/ zoning etc .

I reckon Maffew failed mafs at school

 

[jenny61_99]

2 we knew about 1 had a ? and 1 is a bit of a surprise.

Nah, Dawson was completely polaxed at the end of the game. They were saying he was winded, but maybe it was more than that?

 

[jenny61_99]

Ah Chee, hammy. Who comes in for him?

Edwards maybe?