Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[clogged]

It goes without saying but if they win it from out there it'll go against the precedence over the preceding 20 years. If Fremantle make it to the GF again and lose surey questions must be asked about the supercoaches ability to win flags with his methods?

Probably, but it would be madness to dismiss Lyon as a coach even if his sides struggle to win grand finals. The vast majority of coaches are useless and chucking out a coach that wins vastly more games than he loses undermines the competitiveness of the league.

 

[Roobs321]

Without looking at the squiggle, that mid-tier group of Rich/Adel/Ess/WCE must be really tightly bunched at the moment, and the Suns would have just about caught them after the Cats game.

EDIT: Just had a peek, surprised the Suns didn't move more I guess.

Freo's move to the right this week is impressive. Also good to see GWS beginning the march, their last 4 weeks have been excellent.

 

[Eshay187]

I expect to see the swans start to move downwards - we just cant put seem to put the weaker teams to the sword.

 

[hk89]

I rate Gray far higher than I do Breust, primarily because Breust is a down-hill skier who's easily shut out of the game by a decent defender, eg. Nick Smith or Malceski or Rhyce Shaw, and he barely has the stamina or physicality to survive in midfield. However, Gray can play forward or for prolonged periods in the midfield.

He's a single trick pony in a world of fraudsters. If he was a car salesman he'd be s**t.

If he is rated as AA material id chew off my leg and feed it to my cat. There is no way in hell that he's better than Gray, let alone Wingard, McGlynn, Ballantyne, Motlop and a bunch other players I can't quite recall. They're all similar, play similar positions, and have similar impact on their team. However, I would pick everyone of those players before breust, because when the going gets tough, you need more than chicken s**t shirkers to stand up.

I'm not sure where to start other than saying this is perhaps the biggest load of crap posted in this thread so far.

By down-hill skier I assume you mean he only plays well when the team wins? He was our equal highest goal scorer in our loss against Sydney, and only Tippet out scored him that day (by 1 goal). He was our top goal scorer when we lost to Geelong, and only Hawkins playing on a midget outscored him from Geelong. In our only other loss for the year against port, he was also our equal top goal scorer. So you are calling a guy that has been our top or equal top goal scorer in EVERY SINGLE ONE of our losses this year a down hill skier? With this evidence would you like to retract your statement and admit you are a terrible judge of a good footballer?

Yes, he's more a traditional small forward than a forward-midfielder double act, despite spending some time in the midfield, and I guess you could say that makes him a 1 trick pony. But he is a one trick pony who is currently equal 5th in the coleman (and only 3 goals off 2nd place). He has more goals - quite a few more - than all the other players you mention, so yes he will be a lock for AA small forward in front of ALL of them if his current form continues. I guess you'd call Locket a rubbish forward because he didn't play enough time in the midfield? I hope your cat likes eating chunky chicken.

 

[hk89]

Some of the goals he's scored have been just by standing in the goal square and having it kicked to him. I don't rate him higher than someone like Ballantyne or Lindsay Thomas for being able to win their own ball. Sure, he's accurate and he kicks goals, but he isn't someone who can go out, win his own ball, and tear another team apart.

He's a finisher through and through.

Currently Luke Breust is equal first in the competition for goal assists, equal with Robbie Gray, and ahead of players like McVeigh, Wingard, Ablett, and Kieren Jack. You are embarrassing yourself on this topic, and should just stop.

 

[Janus]

FYI, there's an error with your ladder predictor. You have Port winning against Sydney at home, but the ladder says that they lose. Which throws the entire final ladder prediction and finals calculations out.

 

[clogged]

FYI, there's an error with your ladder predictor. You have Port winning against Sydney at home, but the ladder says that they lose. Which throws the entire final ladder prediction and finals calculations out.

You need to learn squiggle-fu. You don't get four points for a win in squiggle land.

For instance, Fremantle are predicted to win every remaining game of the season. However they are predicted to finish fourth. It's because the squiggle is not confident about some of the wins it has penciled in for Freo (against Geelong, Hawthorn and Port specifically).

 

[Port01]

FYI, there's an error with your ladder predictor. You have Port winning against Sydney at home, but the ladder says that they lose. Which throws the entire final ladder prediction and finals calculations out.

nah its just that port at that stage accumulate enough 'potential loss', it isn't done purely on win loss, but accumulated probability of win loss (ie enough 60-40 games you will eventually lose one).

 

[thefreodockers]

Freo making a solid move to the right on that defensive effort against Brissy.

The return of Walters in a couple of weeks and if Sylvia makes an impact could make a positive difference to the offense as well.

Good signs!

 

[mattis117]

I will preface my post by saying I do understand how the ladder predictor works.

I noticed something really interesting - that at the current values, the round 23 game of Freo vs Port results in a statistical loss for both teams, meaning both of them fall down the ladder. This is because they were both close to the .5 mark and the probabilities for the game change from a round up to a round down.

I think it's too far out still, another 2 weeks and this predictor will likely be getting quite accurate to the end of season ladder.

 

[The King!]

He's a single trick pony in a world of fraudsters. If he was a car salesman he'd be s**t.

If he is rated as AA material id chew off my leg and feed it to my cat. There is no way in hell that he's better than Gray, let alone Wingard, McGlynn, Ballantyne, Motlop and a bunch other players I can't quite recall. They're all similar, play similar positions, and have similar impact on their team. However, I would pick everyone of those players before breust, because when the going gets tough, you need more than chicken s**t shirkers to stand up.

you trolling?

cant be serious?

 

[Final Siren]

You need to learn squiggle-fu. You don't get four points for a win in squiggle land.

For instance, Fremantle are predicted to win every remaining game of the season. However they are predicted to finish fourth. It's because the squiggle is not confident about some of the wins it has penciled in for Freo (against Geelong, Hawthorn and Port specifically).

Right now Freo are on a knife-edge between 1st and 4th, because the predictor has them with 16.49 wins, which it rounds down to 16 after Round 23. Even if they merely perform to expectation and beat West Coast next weekend, which the squiggle expects them to do with ~80% likelihood, the removal of that 20% loss possibility will be enough to put them on target for 17 wins, with a clear path to the Grand Final due to playing home finals.

 

[clogged]

Right now Freo are on a knife-edge between 1st and 4th, because the predictor has them with 16.49 wins, which it rounds down to 16 after Round 23. Even if they merely perform to expectation and beat West Coast next weekend, which the squiggle expects them to do with ~80% likelihood, the removal of that 20% loss possibility will be enough to put them on target for 17 wins, with a clear path to the Grand Final due to playing home finals.

If there's one flaw with your predictive ladder, it's that the rounding off of wins doesn't sum to the 198 games played.

 

[autocol]

The return of Walters in a couple of weeks and if Sylvia makes an impact could make a positive difference to the offense as well.

If he dishes up what he did back here, Sylvia certainly won't improve your defence!

 

[Unique Name]

If he dishes up what he did back here, Sylvia certainly won't improve your defence!

He looked pretty good on the weekend, defensive pressure was right up.

 

[mattis117]

If he dishes up what he did back here, Sylvia certainly won't improve your defence!

Why do you think it took until round 14 for him to get a full game - he had to change his attitude to get into this side, he will need to continue to perform at a high standard because we have a number of guys that will gladly take that spot (Sheridan, Morabito, Crozier).

 

[MF]

If there's one flaw with your predictive ladder, it's that the rounding off of wins doesn't sum to the 198 games played.

Sounds like we got us a squiggle hater in these here parts.

 

[Wandering Hawk]

Lynching time!

 

[The Swans Blog]

it needs to beat Carlton today 960 to 5.

Oh man, if only!!!

 

[Final Siren]

Round 14, 2014​

Interactive squiggle!

 

[Final Siren]

If there's one flaw with your predictive ladder, it's that the rounding off of wins doesn't sum to the 198 games played.

Yeah, it's a bit of a necessary evil. There are a few ways to avoid it, but none I think would be better. For example, it could predict wins for teams that it doesn't actually expect to win but who are "more due" (having accumulated more potential wins in total). But that would be even harder to wrap your head around, I reckon, so make it less useful as a tool.

 

[cryptor]

Yeah, it's a bit of a necessary evil. There are a few ways to avoid it, but none I think would be better. For example, it could predict wins for teams that it doesn't actually expect to win but who are "more due" (having accumulated more potential wins in total). But that would be even harder to wrap your head around, I reckon, so make it less useful as a tool.

Wouldn't that also be affected by the order of games played which is fairly arbitrary?

 

[AlibiMonday]

Right now Freo are on a knife-edge between 1st and 4th, because the predictor has them with 16.49 wins, which it rounds down to 16 after Round 23. Even if they merely perform to expectation and beat West Coast next weekend, which the squiggle expects them to do with ~80% likelihood, the removal of that 20% loss possibility will be enough to put them on target for 17 wins, with a clear path to the Grand Final due to playing home finals.

If there's no distinction between offence and defence (ie. saving a goal is the same as scoring a goal), then it looks to me that the squiggle is indicating that Fremantle (80D + 59O = 139) are essentially equal with Sydney (75D + 64O = 139) for power ranking/strength/form/flag favourites, with Hawthorn just behind (62D + 75O = 137).

 

[The Swans Blog]

If there's no distinction between offence and defence (ie. saving a goal is the same as scoring a goal), then it looks to me that the squiggle is indicating that Fremantle (80D + 59O = 139) are essentially equal with Sydney (75D + 64O = 139) for power ranking/strength/form/flag favourites, with Hawthorn just behind (62D + 75O = 137).

Did Squiggles predict that I will eat chocolate 5 days in a row?

 

[disgruntled goat]

Some of the goals he's scored have been just by standing in the goal square and having it kicked to him. I don't rate him higher than someone like Ballantyne or Lindsay Thomas for being able to win their own ball. Sure, he's accurate and he kicks goals, but he isn't someone who can go out, win his own ball, and tear another team apart.

He's a finisher through and through.

He's classes above Lindsay Thomas ...