Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Hawkk]

I remember that the Eagles were a strong attacking team in 2005 and 2006, whilst the Swans were strong defensively. Eagles were heavy favorites in '05 and even more so '06.

I think this is the first time the Swans have been outright favorites in a grand final since they moved to Sydney... (??)

They weren't.

As a point of reference Hawthorn has kicked around 35 more goals than the Eagles of 2005/06 who were roughly comparable to Sydney 2014 for offence.

Favouritism is relative, based on the perception of the market (and heavily slanted to PF results) but I find it extremely difficult to believe that West Coast were heavy favourite in 2006. Not only were Sydney the defending premier but they stretched the Eagles to a 2 point game at home in round 17 and followed it up with a 1 point win in the QF (at Subiaco). Sure West Coast finished with 3 more wins in the home and away season (although the Swans for / against was vastly superior) but the Swans had the far easier Preliminary Final, comfortably accounting for Fremantle on the Friday Night while the Eagles had to fly to Adelaide and take on the Crows on the Saturday (besting them by 10 points in the process). The 3 game home / away advantage was effectively negated by the Swans rolling West Coast in Perth (which was a continuation of the round 17 epic at Subiaco)

If the Eagles were favourites in 2005 and 2006 it was very much a false market, in much the same way 2012 (Hawthorn clear favourite) and 2014 (Sydney clear favourite) has a false definitive favourite as well.

 

[The King!]

Posted this in the upsets thread but there is a certain symmetry between 2012 and 2014...

The Hawks and Swans go into the Grand Final with 19 wins, 5 losses and similar percentages across the 24 games (145.19% for the Swans, 139.36% for the Hawks).

Back in 2012 the Hawks and Swans met in the Grand Final, both again going in with 19 wins, 5 losses and percentages that were in reverse to 2014 across the 24 games (Hawks with 151.61% and Swans 141%)

What's more, on the Tuesday before the 2012 Grand Final Hawthorn sat 1.65 to 2.30 favourites against the Swans with 2-out-of-3 pundits picking the Hawks. Obviously those in the know weren't aware of the magic that is Final Siren's squiggle!

I can't think of many Grand Finals in recent years where the two combatants go into the Grand Final with an equal number of wins / losses and an equivalent percentage:

2014 - Sydney 19/5 (145.19%) vs. Hawthorn 19/5 (139.36%)
2013 - Hawthorn 21/3 (136%) vs. Fremantle 18/1/5 (133%)
2012 - Hawthorn 19/5 (151.61%) vs. Sydney 19/5 (141%)
2011 - Collingwood 22/2 (163.8%) vs. Geelong 21/3 (157%)
2010 - Collingwood 19/1/4 (144%) vs. St Kilda 18/1/5 (121.4%)
2009 - St Kilda 22/2 (154.15%) vs. Geelong 20/4 (130.41%)
2008 - Geelong 23/1 (162.74%) vs. Hawthorn 19/5 (134.89%)
2007 - Geelong 20/4 (154.91%) vs. Port Adelaide 17/7 (117.07%)
2006 - West Coast 19/6 (122.47%) vs. Sydney 16/8 (127.90%)
2005 - West Coast 19/5 (128.15%) vs. Sydney 17/8 (116.35%)

As a bit of a statistical anomaly, its ridiculous that Hawthorn and Sydney have ended up with the identical number of wins with a for/against almost in reverse (as a percentage).

Something else to consider could be the net-margin across games played between the combatants over the season against the margin in the Grand Final. Where more than one game has game has been played for the season the total net-result is divided by the number of games played.

For example:

2014 - Sydney 19/5 (145.19%) vs. Hawthorn 19/5 (139.36%)
2 games (Syd HOME, Haw HOME) +4.5 to Sydney (GF Result - TBC)
2013 - Hawthorn 21/3 (136%) vs. Fremantle 18/1/5 (133%)
1 game (Haw HOME) +42 to Hawthorn (GF Result +15 to Hawthorn)
2012 - Hawthorn 19/5 (151.61%) vs. Sydney 19/5 (141%)
2 games (Haw HOME, Syd HOME) +30 Sydney (GF Result +10 Sydney)
2011 - Collingwood 22/2 (163.8%) vs. Geelong 21/3 (157%)
2 games (Geel HOME, Coll HOME) +49.5 Geelong (GF Result +38 Geelong)
2010 - Collingwood 19/1/4 (144%) vs. St Kilda 18/1/5 (121.4%)
2 games (STK HOME, Coll HOME) +20 Collingwood (GF Result +56 Collingwood)
2009 - St Kilda 22/2 (154.15%) vs. Geelong 20/4 (130.41%)
1 game (STK Home) +1 St Kilda (GF Result +12 Geelong)
2008 - Geelong 23/1 (162.74%) vs. Hawthorn 19/5 (134.89%)
1 game (HAW Home) +13 Geelong (GF Result +26 Hawthorn)
2007 - Geelong 20/4 (154.91%) vs. Port Adelaide 17/7 (117.07%)
2 games (PA HOME, Geel HOME) +25.5 Geelong (GF Result +119 Geelong)
2006 - West Coast 19/6 (122.47%) vs. Sydney 16/8 (127.90%)
3 games (WCE HOME, WCE HOME) +1 West Coast (GF Result +1 West Coast)
2005 - West Coast 19/5 (128.15%) vs. Sydney 17/8 (116.35%)
3 games (WCE HOME, Syd HOME, WCE HOME) +8.5 West Coast (GF Result +4 Sydney)

Probability of the net home / away team winning the flag is 66%

In face if you run the 12 point squiggle ratting over the games the probability changes:

2014 - Sydney 19/5 (145.19%) vs. Hawthorn 19/5 (139.36%)
2 games (Syd HOME, Haw HOME) +4.5 to Sydney (GF Result - TBC)
2013 - Hawthorn 21/3 (136%) vs. Fremantle 18/1/5 (133%)
1 game (Haw HOME) +30 to Hawthorn (GF Result +15 to Hawthorn)
2012 - Hawthorn 19/5 (151.61%) vs. Sydney 19/5 (141%)
2 games (Haw HOME, Syd HOME) +30 Sydney (GF Result +10 Sydney)
2011 - Collingwood 22/2 (163.8%) vs. Geelong 21/3 (157%)
2 games (Geel HOME, Coll HOME) +49.5 Geelong (GF Result +38 Geelong)
2010 - Collingwood 19/1/4 (144%) vs. St Kilda 18/1/5 (121.4%)
2 games (STK HOME, Coll HOME) +20 Collingwood (GF Result +56 Collingwood)
2009 - St Kilda 22/2 (154.15%) vs. Geelong 20/4 (130.41%)
1 game (STK Home) +11 Geelong (GF Result +12 Geelong)
2008 - Geelong 23/1 (162.74%) vs. Hawthorn 19/5 (134.89%)
1 game (HAW Home) +26 Geelong (GF Result +26 Hawthorn)
2007 - Geelong 20/4 (154.91%) vs. Port Adelaide 17/7 (117.07%)
2 games (PA HOME, Geel HOME) +25.5 Geelong (GF Result +119 Geelong)
2006 - West Coast 19/6 (122.47%) vs. Sydney 16/8 (127.90%)
3 games (WCE HOME, WCE HOME) +23 Sydney (GF Result +1 West Coast)
2005 - West Coast 19/5 (128.15%) vs. Sydney 17/8 (116.35%)
3 games (WCE HOME, Syd HOME, WCE HOME) +4.5 Sydney (GF Result +4 Sydney)

Probability of the net home / away team winning the flag (allowing for squiggle) is 77%

Check out the cluster of results and the margins, all (save 2008 and 2010 - which was a draw the first time around) are within 24 points of the net margin across home / away games

So what does this mean for Saturday?

I have absolutely no idea who will win, but if precedence is any indication I can say with almost certainty that the result won't be by more than 10 points. Anyone who suggests otherwise (namely pundits in the media) are deadset flogs.

If my analysis is correct this will be the closet Grand Final of the last 10 years, have a look at the stats yourself the teams records effectively mirror each other across the season.

good analysis
so heart attacks all round then.

 

[The King!]

Geelong dominated in almost every facet. The rushed behinds really prevented their run of play and it really was the only reason that the Hawks won, .

as much as i dont like to defend hawthorn I cannot agree with that, if the behind isnt rushed who says it does not force the hawks to run the ball down and score even more goals?

the hawks won the flag because they played better in 08 and deserved it. The object of the season is to be in front at the final siren on grand final day, people spend too much time trying to tell us why certain teams didnt deserve it and take away from wins, happens enough to our premierships, stuff that i say. If you win your the premiers and everyone can get stuffed as far as i am concerned and the same applies for the hawks in 08.

They won with fierce aggressive tackling, bold play and a great team effort

 

[Hawkk]

as much as i dont like to defend hawthorn I cannot agree with that, if the behind isnt rushed who says it does not force the hawks to run the ball down and score even more goals?

the hawks won the flag because they played better in 08 and deserved it. The object of the season is to be in front at the final siren on grand final day, people spend too much time trying to tell us why certain teams didnt deserve it and take away from wins, happens enough to our premierships, stuff that i say. If you win your the premiers and everyone can get stuffed as far as i am concerned and the same applies for the hawks in 08.

They won with fierce aggressive tackling, bold play and a great team effort

As per my analysis, Hawthorn found 46 points between round 17 and the Grand Final. Between round 17 and the Grand Final:

2008: Geelong 7-0 (193.37) vs. Hawthorn 6-1 (170.87)
(Last Result - Hawthorn 77, Geelong 90, GF Result - Geelong 89, Hawthorn 115)

Both clubs steamrolled into that Grand Final. In any other year Hawthorn would have run away with that flag convincingly. That said Geelong 2008 was arguably the greatest team in VFL/AFL history so they should have won that flag!

As for 2012 and 2014

2012: Hawthorn 3-0 (126.25) vs. Sydney 2-1 (109.37%)
(Last Result - Sydney 95, Hawthorn 102, GF Result - Hawthorn 80, Sydney 90)

There is no doubt Hawthorn peaked in the QF. If you look at our squiggle we tapered off significantly in the PF and GF (which is different to Hawthorn 2014 where our victory over Port Adelaide - the form team, was in line with relative expectation).

Based on this result, the Swans effectively found 29 points on us between rounds 22 and the Grand Final.

2014: Sydney 6-1 (160%) vs. Hawthorn 6-1 (144%)
(Last Result - Hawthorn 104, Sydney 94, GF Result - TBC)

Grand Final Day can fluctuate wildly (as above) but pound for pound the two teams go into the Grand Final with nigh on identical similar paths. Both clubs had slip ups in the run home (Fremantle loss for Hawthorn, Richmond for Sydney... in both instances key forwards were rested or suspended) but you can't really ask to go into Grand Final with better form lines than 6-1, a 140% or better percentage and full squads to choose from. Really there is no excuses this Saturday at all...

Compared to 2011:

2011: Collingwood 2-0 (118%) vs. Geelong 2-0 (154.67%)
(Last Result - Collingwood 53, Geelong 149, GF Result - 119-81)

The unique thing about this years form guide is that we didn't get a chance to see how the top 4 would fare against each other in the QFs and PFs. How Hawthorn would have gone against North Melbourne (Fremantle) and Sydney against Port Adelaide (Geelong) provides a certain mystery to the form guide of the two teams. Final Siren has tried to account for this with squiggle but its not a like for like comparison.

 

[RW]

Hawkk loves the squiggles

I'm not sure what to read into them, but I'm cautiously optimistic about our chances since OFFDEF-75 seems to like the Swans and it doesn't usually miss.

 

[The Swans Blog]

If my analysis is correct this will be the closet Grand Final of the last 10 years, have a look at the stats yourself the teams records effectively mirror each other across the season.

Since 2005:

Swans def. Eagles 4 points
Eagles def. Swans 1 point
Collingwood draw St Kilda
Swans def. Hawthorn 10 points

Not sure how it could get closer than 2009 or 2006.

 

[Hawkk]

Since 2005:

Swans def. Eagles 4 points
Eagles def. Swans 1 point
Collingwood draw St Kilda
Swans def. Hawthorn 10 points

Not sure how it could get closer than 2009 or 2006.

I'm not saying the game will be the closest, I'm merely saying the match up is the closest. Hawthorn and Sydney 2014 is almost identical. Now that I've said that one will probably skip away to a comfortable 6 to 8 goal win...

 

[Pessimistic]

Get on the draw and less than 11pt win.

Draw insurance will pay for another match ticket

 

[gothecrows]

Back in 2012 the Hawks and Swans met in the Grand Final, both again going in with 19 wins, 5 losses and percentages that were in reverse to 2014 across the 24 games (Hawks with 151.61% and Swans 141%)

Sydney were 18-6 in 2012, having finished 3rd on the ladder at 16-6. Hawthorn and Adelaide finished 1st and 2nd respectively at 17-5.

 

[Hawkk]

Sydney were 18-6 in 2012, having finished 3rd on the ladder at 16-6. Hawthorn and Adelaide finished 1st and 2nd respectively at 17-5.

Fair call. I've amended the post.

Notwithstanding my point still stands, this is the most even contest (across the home and away season) of any contest over the preceding 10 years - and perhaps longer (back to 2001).

2004 - Port Adelaide 19/5 (133%) vs. Brisbane Lions 18/4 (139%)
2003 - Collingwood 17/7 (123.26%) vs. Brisbane Lions 16/1/8 (123.2%)
2002 - Brisbane Lions 19/5 (140.53%) vs. Collingwood 15/9 (110.94%)
2001 - Essendon 19/5 (136.5%) vs. Brisbane Lions 19/5 (130.71%)
2000 - Essendon 23/1 (163.2%) vs. Melbourne 16/6 (119.4%)

Now running the results from the home / away games over the GF...

2004 - Port Adelaide 19/5 (133%) vs. Brisbane Lions 18/4 (139%)
1 game (BL HOME) +25 to Brisbane Lions (GF Result +40 to Port Adelaide)
2003 - Collingwood 17/7 (123.26%) vs. Brisbane Lions 16/1/8 (123.2%)
3 games (BL, COLL, COLL HOME) +13 to Brisbane Lions (GF Result +50 to Brisbane Lions)
2002 - Brisbane Lions 19/5 (140.53%) vs. Collingwood 15/9 (110.94%)
1 game (COLL HOME) +3 to Collingwood (GF Result +9 to Brisbane Lions)
2001 - Essendon 19/5 (136.5%) vs. Brisbane Lions 19/5 (130.71%)
1 game (BL HOME) +28 to Brisbane Lions (GF Result +26 to Brisbane Lions)
2000 - Essendon 23/1 (163.2%) vs. Melbourne 16/6 (119.4%)
1 game - (MELB HOME) +13 to Essendon (+60 to Essendon)

Allowing for the 12 point squiggle:

2004 - Port Adelaide 19/5 (133%) vs. Brisbane Lions 18/4 (139%)
1 game (BL HOME) +37 to Brisbane Lions (GF Result +40 to Port Adelaide)
2003 - Collingwood 17/7 (123.26%) vs. Brisbane Lions 16/1/8 (123.2%)
3 games (BL, COLL, COLL HOME) +21 to Brisbane Lions (GF Result +50 to Brisbane Lions)
2002 - Brisbane Lions 19/5 (140.53%) vs. Collingwood 15/9 (110.94%)
1 game (COLL HOME) +4.5 to Brisbane Lions (GF Result +9 to Brisbane Lions)
2001 - Essendon 19/5 (136.5%) vs. Brisbane Lions 19/5 (130.71%)
1 game (BL HOME) +16 to Brisbane Lions (GF Result +26 to Brisbane Lions)
2000 - Essendon 23/1 (163.2%) vs. Melbourne 16/6 (119.4%)
1 game - (MELB HOME) +25 to Essendon (+60 to Essendon)

So the with squiggle this has predicted the result of 76% of Grand Finals.

2001 and 2003 both should have been absolute classics. Ultimately the results of 2002 and 2003 should have been reversed.

Incorrect GF tips by OFFDEF-75 in the last 25 years:

• 2008 Hawthorn, which defied every law of football of which I am aware
  
• 2003 Brisbane: tipped Collingwood
  
• 1998 Adelaide: tipped North Melbourne
  
• 1997 Adelaide: tipped St Kilda
  
• 1992 West Coast: tipped Geelong

I have one question for Final Siren, how did OFFDEF-75 predict that Port Adelaide would defeat Brisbane? Brisbane had a far more impressive finals series (80 point wins at home against St Kilda and a 9 point victory at the MCG against Geelong while Port accounted for Geelong and St Kilda at home by 55 points and 6 points). The Brisbane Lions rolled Port Adelaide by 37 points (at home) in their only fixture for the season. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but I don't understand how the Lions didn't go into that GF as unbackable favourite, I understand they had the 7 day break from Melbourne but that was no different to 2003 where the Lions had to travel to Sydney to play a bruising PF...

 

[clogged]

I have one question for Final Siren, how did OFFDEF-75 predict that Port Adelaide would defeat Brisbane? Brisbane had a far more impressive finals series (80 point wins at home against St Kilda and a 9 point victory at the MCG against Geelong while Port accounted for Geelong and St Kilda at home by 55 points and 6 points). The Brisbane Lions rolled Port Adelaide by 37 points (at home) in their only fixture for the season. Hindsight is a wonderful thing but I don't understand how the Lions didn't go into that GF as unbackable favourite, I understand they had the 7 day break from Melbourne but that was no different to 2003 where the Lions had to travel to Sydney to play a bruising PF...

I would say it's because the algorithm assigned Brisbane's win over Geelong at the MCG as too small for what was a "home" victory. Further, Geelong were thrashed by Port, then squeezed out a small victory over 8th placed Essendon to make the prelims.

Whereas the Saints were thrashed by Brisbane, but then thrashed Sydney themselves. So St Kilda were the higher ranked opponent in the prelims as compared to Geelong.

 

[Hawkk]

I would say it's because the algorithm assigned Brisbane's win over Geelong at the MCG as too small for what was a "home" victory. Further, Geelong were thrashed by Port, then squeezed out a small victory over 8th placed Essendon to make the prelims.

Whereas the Saints were thrashed by Brisbane, but then thrashed Sydney themselves. So St Kilda were the higher ranked opponent in the prelims as compared to Geelong.

Perhaps. That said would the squiggle have assigned home ground advantage to Geelong (+12) over Brisbane (making it a 21 point win) compared to Port Adelaide's 6 point win over the Saints. The Saints were absolutely clobbered by the Lions in the QF (+80) so I assume a hell of a lot of movement occurred in that Semi Final weekend? The squiggle must have adored the Saints performance against the Swans after effectively writing their ticket home in the lead up!

Probably just reiterates how volatile the squiggle is, its a bit like 2014 where Sydney and Hawthorn were basically neck for the second half of the season only for the Swans to shoot ahead to a commanding lead last week

 

[Sydney Bloods]

just think how imbalanced the west horsham threads would be.

I was most likely drunk when posting that.

 

[The Swans Blog]

I'm not saying the game will be the closest, I'm merely saying the match up is the closest. Hawthorn and Sydney 2014 is almost identical. Now that I've said that one will probably skip away to a comfortable 6 to 8 goal win...

St Kilda vs Geelong was close, St Kilda vs Collingwood was really close, even the Sydney/West Coast grand finals were extremely close.

If the Swans break even on I50's & contested ball, I don't think the game is going to be close.

 

[Hawkk]

St Kilda vs Geelong was close, St Kilda vs Collingwood was really close, even the Sydney/West Coast grand finals were extremely close.

If the Swans break even on I50's & contested ball, I don't think the game is going to be close.

I reckon it will be, but perhaps a romping in the other direction

The Swans have a vastly inferior I50 to goal conversion rate, if we square it with you (which will be the challenge) we'll absolutely romp the Grand Final home.

My concern is that you'll annilhate us for I50's, force Lake off Tippet (that's right Lake hasn't played against the Swans this year ) and force Hodge or Borgoyne into the backline thus negating our grunt from of centre. If we get belted in the inside and allow the Swans to take it on the outside we could be in some trouble. That said if we can square it on the inside and take the ball out to the wings (Smith and Hill) I believe we have the best outside wingers in the game.

On displayed form, the Swans and Hawks have played twice this season.

The first...

Sydney 15.17 107 def. Hawthorn 13.10 88
65 I50's to 48 I50's
41 Clearances a piece

The second...

Hawthorn 15.14 104 def. Sydney 13.16 94
55 I50's to 49 I50's
35 to 33 Clearances

This isn't based on relative performance in PF which is something of a false market (given the Swans and Hawks sat at 2.25 joint favourites for the first two weeks of the finals), this is based on displayed form. The Swans pound for pound have a far more inefficient forward set up, they also miss a lot of chances in front of goal (you remind me a lot of Hawthorn in 2008-2012 given our reliance on Buddy).

Our spread is also superior, the Swans have only had 5 players kick more than 20 goals for the season (and only 1 with more than 50), Hawthorn has had 7 (and 3 with more than 50 a piece) so that's another misconception - this isn't 2012 afterall where the Swans had 8 runners all with 20 or more goals.

In games where Sydney allow the opponent to kick 90 points or more you are 1-3 (inc. a tight 97-94 home win against the Swans) where Hawthorn kick 100 points we're 16-0. The lowest score Hawthorn has kicked all season is 87, our two scores against the Swans were 88 and 104. So I forecast a very tight game, a game that pits the most defensive (Sydney) and the most offensive (Hawthorn) side in a contrast of styles. Do I think we'll win? No I expect the Swans to win by a goal, but do we have a chance based on displayed form? Absolutely!

Since our last showing in round 18, Hawthorn and Sydney are both 6-1 (with tight losses), both with percentages of 160 and 140. On displayed form both have steamrolled through the season and should enter the match with enormous confidence.

But again I guess comprehension isn't your strong point. In the build up to the Grand Final this is the closest Grand Final in 13 years on the back of the relative performance of the two sides across the home / away season and finals, when you place the 2 results over the win / loss records the sides are separated by 4.5 points. That's not to say you won't win by 8 goals, this is only a forecast based on demonstrated form but I'd hate to see you set yourself up for an enormous fall...the like that a lot of Hawthorn supporters did in 2012 when a lot of us thought we had it in the bag.

Funnily enough we were heavy favourites going into that game as well, albeit a false favourite given the Swans were net 30 points ahead of us across the two games we played in the home and away season

 

[SJ]

Great analysis. It's about as close a 50-50 game as you can get.

 

[The Swans Blog]

But again I guess comprehension isn't your strong point. In the build up to the Grand Final this is the closest Grand Final in 13 years on the back of the relative performance of the two sides across the home / away season and finals, when you place the 2 results over the win / loss records the sides are separated by 4.5 points. That's not to say you won't win by 8 goals, this is only a forecast based on demonstrated form but I'd hate to see you set yourself up for an enormous fall...the like that a lot of Hawthorn supporters did in 2012 when a lot of us thought we had it in the bag.

Funnily enough we were heavy favourites going into that game as well, albeit a false favourite given the Swans were net 30 points ahead of us across the two games we played in the home and away season

It's the closest game of the season, but it isn't the closest grand final we'll have. It's been well discussed in other threads that the St Kilda/Collingwood, St Kilda/Geelong and Sydney/West Coast grand finals were as close as they come. Stats don't tell the whole truth, it doesn't explain what happened in 2008, or how Sydney won in 2012.

I use I50s as a measuring stick because if we have more, we will win. Our bread & butter is defending I50s and rebounding the ball and defending it higher up the field to prevent I50s. We were smashed in the clearances 2 years ago, yet still won.

2012 was a great grand final, but it wasn't particularly close. Sure, the result could have gone either way, but since both teams dominated play for large portions of the game, the result could have been 10 points or 40 points. It wasn't like '02 where the winning margin was the largest margin, or '05 where the largest margin was around the 2 goal mark in the 3rd quarter, or '09 and '10 where the margins were 2 goals or less the entire game either way.

This year, it's either going to be tough and reasonably close and tight, or it's going to be a blow out - well, in proportion.

 

[SJ]

It's the closest game of the season, but it isn't the closest grand final we'll have. It's been well discussed in other threads that the St Kilda/Collingwood, St Kilda/Geelong and Sydney/West Coast grand finals were as close as they come. Stats don't tell the whole truth, it doesn't explain what happened in 2008, or how Sydney won in 2012.

I use I50s as a measuring stick because if we have more, we will win. Our bread & butter is defending I50s and rebounding the ball and defending it higher up the field to prevent I50s. We were smashed in the clearances 2 years ago, yet still won.

2012 was a great grand final, but it wasn't particularly close. Sure, the result could have gone either way, but since both teams dominated play for large portions of the game, the result could have been 10 points or 40 points. It wasn't like '02 where the winning margin was the largest margin, or '05 where the largest margin was around the 2 goal mark in the 3rd quarter, or '09 and '10 where the margins were 2 goals or less the entire game either way.

This year, it's either going to be tough and reasonably close and tight, or it's going to be a blow out - well, in proportion.

But Hawthorn's bread and butter is maximising scoring from its forward 50 entries - interesting!

 

[Hawkk]

It's the closest game of the season, but it isn't the closest grand final we'll have. It's been well discussed in other threads that the St Kilda/Collingwood, St Kilda/Geelong and Sydney/West Coast grand finals were as close as they come. Stats don't tell the whole truth, it doesn't explain what happened in 2008, or how Sydney won in 2012.

Based on? Vibe?

This is a thread that looks at ways to predict winners by means of statistics. I've just proven that based on delivered output this is the closet. If you want to look at subjective measures, Hawthorn was clear favourites in 2012...a bit like the Swans this year, but on output the game was far closer (albeit still in the Hawks favour)

I use I50s as a measuring stick because if we have more, we will win. Our bread & butter is defending I50s and rebounding the ball and defending it higher up the field to prevent I50s. We were smashed in the clearances 2 years ago, yet still won.

2012 was a great grand final, but it wasn't particularly close. Sure, the result could have gone either way, but since both teams dominated play for large portions of the game, the result could have been 10 points or 40 points. It wasn't like '02 where the winning margin was the largest margin, or '05 where the largest margin was around the 2 goal mark in the 3rd quarter, or '09 and '10 where the margins were 2 goals or less the entire game either way.

This year, it's either going to be tough and reasonably close and tight, or it's going to be a blow out - well, in proportion.

This isn't 2012. You don't have the spread you had in 2012, your forward set up I50 is completely different (as it is for Hawthorn). Hawthorn have a fair different game plan as is reflective in their statistics across all indicators. If you think that a game 2 years ago will provide an indicator as to the performance on Saturday you are a fool

 

[The Swans Blog]

But Hawthorn's bread and butter is maximising scoring from its forward 50 entries - interesting!

It is. It will be interesting indeed!

This isn't 2012. You don't have the spread you had in 2012, your forward set up I50 is completely different (as it is for Hawthorn). Hawthorn have a fair different game plan as is reflective in their statistics across all indicators. If you think that a game 2 years ago will provide an indicator as to the performance on Saturday you are a fool

Never said it was, I compared this years match up with the 2012 match up.

Both sides are different and play different styles. They can hurt each other in defence or attack. Is it evenly balanced? Yes. I don't think it's the closest, or will be the closest grand final match up in the last 10 years.

 

[Hawkk]

But Hawthorn's bread and butter is maximising scoring from its forward 50 entries - interesting!

This.

In the games Hawthorn have played Sydney thus far we've scored 28 goals from 103 Inside 50's. The Swans have kicked 28 goals from 114 Inside 50's.

In 2012 we dominated the I50 account in most games but was incredibly wasteful in front of goal (52%), the Swans by contrast had a slingshot strategy where they maximised goals from I50 and were much more accurate in front of goal (56%). This year Hawthorn are the most accurate side in front of goal (59%) while the Swans have fallen to 53% (call it the Buddy bump if you want!). People talk about the Swans wastefulness in front of goals when playing Hawthorn but on displayed form they are wasteful in against all teams.

In their games against Hawthorn this season they have kicked at 47% (down from 53%) while the Hawks have kicked at 53% (from from 59%) across the season.

As it is they play completely different game styles from 2012. If we square the I50's we'll win the premiership nothing surer. If we get spanked like round 8 (65 to 48) we could be in some trouble

 

[melbournehammer]

This isn't 2012. You don't have the spread you had in 2012, your forward set up I50 is completely different (as it is for Hawthorn). Hawthorn have a fair different game plan as is reflective in their statistics across all indicators. If you think that a game 2 years ago will provide an indicator as to the performance on Saturday you are a fool[/QUOTE]

This is the only part of your post that I would disagree with. i think our spread this year is better than that in 2012. Jetta is playing closer to the contest, but the broad running power is better than it was.

I think if lake can halve or beat tippett you will go very close to winning. I think buddy based on past performance will kick around 3.3 and tippett 2.2. We have to get to 100 points to win i suspect. That means we need to find another ten goals from goodes, reid, mcglynn, lloyd, parker, cunningham, jack etc. But I am assuming that the scoreline will be like 2012 in reverse - we will need about 6-10 more scoring shots to win.

 

[melbournehammer]

This.

In the games Hawthorn have played Sydney thus far we've scored 28 goals from 103 Inside 50's. The Swans have kicked 28 goals from 114 Inside 50's.

In 2012 we dominated the I50 account in most games but was incredibly wasteful in front of goal (52%), the Swans by contrast had a slingshot strategy where they maximised goals from I50 and were much more accurate in front of goal (56%). This year Hawthorn are the most accurate side in front of goal (59%) while the Swans have fallen to 53% (call it the Buddy bump if you want!). People talk about the Swans wastefulness in front of goals when playing Hawthorn but on displayed form they are wasteful in against all teams.

In their games against Hawthorn this season they have kicked at 47% (down from 53%) while the Hawks have kicked at 53% (from from 59%) across the season.

As it is they play completely different game styles from 2012. If we square the I50's we'll win the premiership nothing surer. If we get spanked like round 8 (65 to 48) we could be in some trouble

In one sense this is the natural consequence of us being a less skilled side than you - your kicking skills maximise your opportunities. Our long kicking and handball maximise our way to move the ball from the contest. But accurate kicking isnt what we are known for so much as running, tackling and accountability.

 

[Hawkk]

This isn't 2012. You don't have the spread you had in 2012, your forward set up I50 is completely different (as it is for Hawthorn). Hawthorn have a fair different game plan as is reflective in their statistics across all indicators. If you think that a game 2 years ago will provide an indicator as to the performance on Saturday you are a fool

This is the only part of your post that I would disagree with. i think our spread this year is better than that in 2012. Jetta is playing closer to the contest, but the broad running power is better than it was.

I think if lake can halve or beat tippett you will go very close to winning. I think buddy based on past performance will kick around 3.3 and tippett 2.2. We have to get to 100 points to win i suspect. That means we need to find another ten goals from goodes, reid, mcglynn, lloyd, parker, cunningham, jack etc. But I am assuming that the scoreline will be like 2012 in reverse - we will need about 6-10 more scoring shots to win.[/QUOTE]

I was looking at output across the season rather than potential on Grand Final day. The Swans definitely have the potential to get spread, you go in deserved favourites and you'll need it to win, but compared to 2012 where you had 8 players that kicked more than 20 goals, its a far different output in 2014. Its strange in that Hawthorn and Sydney have effectively switched places. I gave us a 55/45 chance of winning in 2012, I give the Swans the 55/45 advantage this time around as well

 

[Slawk]

SO this is where I go for actual thought out grand final analysis!
The preview thread is a train wreck.