Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

In a sense it's all a pointless exercise in "woulda shoulda coulda." But as a Richmond supporter that's about all I've had for 30 years so I'm writing web tools for it.

Getting to the crux of the issue!

 

[Gydafud]

https://maxbarry.com/squiggle/?door=1781024659&luck=1&year=2016&rewritehistory=0

What a heart-wrenching finals series. GF looks like a tight contest though. Must have been bucketing down.

 

[lamaros]

https://maxbarry.com/squiggle/?door=4087147358&luck=98&year=2016&rewritehistory=1#

A win from 6th! Astounding.

 

[Pessimistic]

Quite a loot of games involving the top 8 have also been decided where one team kicks well for scores and the other kicks badly. which to me adds to the chaos. for example hawks won where kangaroos kicked badly, but lost when Sydney kicked better than them.

In fact hawks have lost two when they had more or equal scoring shots, an won one where they have less scoring shots. Other teams are probably similar

geel lost 26 26
wce won 29 18
wb won 23 25
stk won 22 19
adel won 27 24
gws lost 23 38
rich won 32 25
fre won 31 20
syd lost 20 19
bris won 30 22
mel won 26 14
ess won 34 13
nth won 23 39
gc won 28 20
pta won 27 19

 

[Rotayjay]

In previous Sliding Doors, and now the new current-season version of Sliding Doors, I've had a think about how much is luck. I think around two goals per team per game are due to luck - a 50/50 free kick or a good/bad bounce. If the average team is kicking 13 goals a game, I guess that makes final scores about 7% luck. I can't see it being any more than 10% or any less than 5%. Anyone agree or disagree?

 

[Gralin]

In previous Sliding Doors, and now the new current-season version of Sliding Doors, I've had a think about how much is luck. I think around two goals per team per game are due to luck - a 50/50 free kick or a good/bad bounce. If the average team is kicking 13 goals a game, I guess that makes final scores about 7% luck. I can't see it being any more than 10% or any less than 5%. Anyone agree or disagree?

something like that is probably fair on average and over a season, there are some games that obviously have massive luck or are such walk overs that no luck is required

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

At the pre determined 5% luck the Hawks went to 8th and the GF played out like this...

View attachment 265637

Dangerfield would have to run over plenty of black cats you would think.

Dangerfield caught holding the ball by Sloane running into an open goal

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Dangerfield caught holding the ball by Sloane running into an open goal

The possibilities are endless.

How about a Chick smother to Hunter goal, except Sloane smothers Danger, gives to Tex, goal, then Tex gives it to Danger.

 

[Pessimistic]

Still think we can get 18 wins. Bad luck sydney, u were robbed, take an easy run home as consolation

 

[Gydafud]

Losing to the Dogs in a final? I think not. We are definitely eating that prelim loss to the Hawks

 

[Paul Kersey]

Crows aren't beating us at the MCG on GF day IMO.

Sent from my SM-G900I using Tapatalk

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

I give this Squiggle two thumbs up!

 

[Glenno23]

3 weeks ago we were beating Geelong in a GF

Last week it was Swans

This week its Hawks. Contenders falling over themselves to get beaten!

Who else wants the right to lose to us in a GF?

 

[Aussie Assault]

If games go according to plan this round and GWS and Geelong have decent wins the Swannies could drop to 7th.

 

[Pessimistic]

Cyril kicking for goal, i was prepared to take a draw to take out percentage, although that would put us third in the squiggle, ans playing a qf in sydney not Melbourne

Were squiggle to play out that is

 

[Suma Magic]

Crows aren't beating us at the MCG on GF day IMO.

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Luckily for you the forecast isn't the preferred prediction method. Unfortunately the flagpole is, and that suggests that the gap between the Crows and the Hawks is even larger.

 

[TedDougChris]

Still think we can get 18 wins. Bad luck sydney, u were robbed, take an easy run home as consolation
View attachment 266179

That's a bloody ugly finals series from a Dogs perspective. Hawks, Adelaide and Cats -

 

[Hawkk]

Luckily for you the forecast isn't the preferred prediction method. Unfortunately the flagpole is, and that suggests that the gap between the Crows and the Hawks is even larger.

A Hawks v Crows GF would be amazing. Port finished off the Lions era so its only fair the Crows finish off the Hawks (particularly after 2007, 2012 and 2015)

 

[Pessimistic]

Adelaides dream run may leave them seriously underprepared for finals

 

[Go the Guts]

A Hawks v Crows GF would be amazing. Port finished off the Lions era so its only fair the Crows finish off the Hawks (particularly after 2007, 2012 and 2015)

You read my mind. You're my new favourite poster.

 

[Hawkk]

In fact the Crows and Hawks have knocked each other out of 4 finals series inside 25 years...

1993 EF Adelaide 16.14 110 def Hawthorn 13.17 95 at MCG (55,287)
2007 EF Hawthorn 15.15 105 def Adelaide 15.12 102 at Ethiad (36,593)
2012 PF Hawthorn 13.19 97 def Adelaide 14.8 92 at MCG (69,146)
2015 SF Hawthorn 21.9 135 def Adelaide 8.13 61 at MCG (70,879)

Last year was pox but the other 3 were classics in their own right. Would also continue the theme of recent Hawthorn Grand Finals against non Vic clubs, with MCG advantage (Sydney, Fremantle, Sydney, West Coast, Adelaide???)

 

[pjcrows]

On what planet do Hawthorn not finish top now? Squiggle is drunk.

 

[Suma Magic]

Adelaides dream run may leave them seriously underprepared for finals

Or maybe the fact they've performed really well in the regular season indicated they will perform well in finals. At least that's what the Squiggle thinks.

 

[Hawkk]

On what planet do Hawthorn not finish top now? Squiggle is drunk.

From what I understand its all to do with probablities between matches. Of course it probably takes a Collingwood, North, Carlton, Melbourne or Richmond belting for the Hawks to gain an 18th win and push for the minor premiership.

Last week Richmond and Collingwood 'beat' the squiggle by a decent margin...

 

[HolyWars]

Cyril kicking for goal, i was prepared to take a draw to take out percentage, although that would put us third in the squiggle, ans playing a qf in sydney not Melbourne

Were squiggle to play out that is

Yep same. I would've taken a point to square it up as I was certain he would pull the kick to get the extra few metres.