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Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
- Thread starter Final Siren
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LeverPuller
BigFooty Tanker
- Jun 23, 2011
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It was as of last week. 100,000 simulations of which 427 had Melbourne in 8th.
- Aug 18, 2009
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It takes the current scores and projects that each team will score at the tipped rate for the rest of the match.
E.g. if the initial tip was Hawthorn 100 over Brisbane 60, and at half time it's 30-30, then the projection will be Hawthorn 30 + (50% of 100) = 80 defeating Brisbane 30 + (50% of 60) = 60.
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- Aug 18, 2009
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Rare but not unprecedented. 80+ Defence at any point in the last 20 years:
- Fremantle 2014 Rounds 16-17
- Collingwood 2011 Rounds 20+
- St Kilda 2010 Round 6
- St Kilda 2009 In and out across the year
- Adelaide 2009 Round 15 (one game only, after holding Fremantle to 13 points)
- Adelaide 2005 Semi-final & prelim
- Aug 18, 2009
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Up to about 6% now!
spinynorman
Norm Smith Medallist
So a similar increase this coming round would see them with an 84% chance? Amazing!
I know how stats work.
LeverPuller
BigFooty Tanker
- Jun 23, 2011
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Surely one of the most embarrassing posts getting round.
Even for you - the Colin Sylvia of big footy.
credibility = 0.
- Aug 20, 2010
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You're still no chance of a 4 peat and still look cooked. Even your team is admitting they are nowhere near the mark.
Also, Sylvia made more money than you ever will in your life, so even if I were Colin it could be worse. I could be you.
cryptor
Brownlow Medallist
- May 11, 2008
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hahaha oh boy.
Whilst you still continue to make hopeless comments I will keep bumping them on this thread.
I never expected us to take the flag this year in what has been a rebuilding phase. Never did I think we'd sit top of the perch this late in the season with a massive shout for no 4.
If I've learnt anything about this club its never write them off under any circumstances.
I'm not even gonna start on Freo as I've enjoyed some diplomatic banter with a few posters on here.
But jesus man do yourself a favour and follow colin's lead and retire - from big footy that is - for yourself, your club and its supporters.
Strapping Young Lad
Moderator
- Apr 19, 2006
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Topkent
Confirmed ITK Drafting King
Why would you think you dont look stupid trying to bait a Hawks supporter about winning....
- Aug 20, 2010
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Pay thatHawthorn are more of a chance of a fourpeat this year than any other club.
- Aug 20, 2010
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Nah. People just suck at accepting the truth.
Orange C
Senior List
- Jul 28, 2011
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If a game clear on top is cooked, I'd hate to be literally any other team.
Maybe you should request a trade to WC as well
- Aug 20, 2010
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To be fair, Freo found themselves there and they ended up being cooked..
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Orange C
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True, but as you started getting injuries to key players, they're getting them back. It's not like they're miles ahead of the pack but cooked is nonsense and you know it.
Coming from the supporter of a club that signed Ross on for five years and has half the list wanting out. Take your miserable trolling somewhere else.
- Aug 20, 2010
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Because your analysis of Hawks is going to be totally objective and unbiased?
- Aug 18, 2009
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Round 21, 2016
Animated!
This week it started to resemble 2013, when the Grand Final was between the league's best scorer (Hawthorn) and its best stopper (Fremantle). Sydney are actually about as defensive as teams ever get, with only a handful of teams treading this territory over the last 20 years. And it's been a great three weeks for them in terms of firepower, too, scoring 137 against Fremantle, 100 against Port, and 146 against St Kilda.
It was a good week for everyone else in the top 5 as Greater Western Sydney won this week's episode of WHO WANTS TO DROP A CRUICIAL GAME? (with a gallant effort from Geelong). This meant the Tower of Power, which last week had an even 5-way split for top spot, collapsed into this:
That last-second kick from Naitanui smashed the Giants' top-2 chances down to 1% and their top-4 chances to 27%.
It's now curiously difficult for Hawthorn to finish 2nd, as they'll be #1 if they win both games and probably 3rd or below if they don't. The real obstacle is West Coast in Perth this week: win that and they'll roughly double their amount of real estate at the top of the Tower.
Meanwhile Melbourne struck a wedge in 8th spot, expanding their finals chances from 0.4% to 6%, as the other main challenger, St. Kilda, were obliterated by the Swans.
Ladder Predictor! The squiggle is tipping the Eagles over the Hawks, which would see things end up something like this:
Flagpole! A small break on the rest of the comp for Sydney and Adelaide, with the Cats drifting.
Live squiggling!
Am I misunderstanding the Tower of Power, or is it giving Port a tiny chance of winning 3 out of its next 2 games and making the top 8?
- Jan 25, 2008
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North play GWS & Sydney. According to the ladder predictor they will win 1 of 2, but predictor is also saying that Swans and Giants both win both of theirs.Round 21, 2016
Animated!
This week it started to resemble 2013, when the Grand Final was between the league's best scorer (Hawthorn) and its best stopper (Fremantle). Sydney are actually about as defensive as teams ever get, with only a handful of teams treading this territory over the last 20 years. And it's been a great three weeks for them in terms of firepower, too, scoring 137 against Fremantle, 100 against Port, and 146 against St Kilda.
It was a good week for everyone else in the top 5 as Greater Western Sydney won this week's episode of WHO WANTS TO DROP A CRUICIAL GAME? (with a gallant effort from Geelong). This meant the Tower of Power, which last week had an even 5-way split for top spot, collapsed into this:
That last-second kick from Naitanui smashed the Giants' top-2 chances down to 1% and their top-4 chances to 27%.
It's now curiously difficult for Hawthorn to finish 2nd, as they'll be #1 if they win both games and probably 3rd or below if they don't. The real obstacle is West Coast in Perth this week: win that and they'll roughly double their amount of real estate at the top of the Tower.
Meanwhile Melbourne struck a wedge in 8th spot, expanding their finals chances from 0.4% to 6%, as the other main challenger, St. Kilda, were obliterated by the Swans.
Ladder Predictor! The squiggle is tipping the Eagles over the Hawks, which would see things end up something like this:
Flagpole! A small break on the rest of the comp for Sydney and Adelaide, with the Cats drifting.
Live squiggling!
Am I missing something?
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