Analysis 'Random Statistics that don't warrant a thread' Thread?

[tommyk72]

It's also like an "8 pt game" because Eade is sitting at 176 wins. Eade is the only current day coach ahead of him. I don't see that status lasting more than a month.
And chasing Clarko's tail is Worsfold (150) and Ross Lyon (146). Can't see either of them making up too much ground on our super coach in the short term.

And, of those names mentioned, Clarko is the only one-club coach which i think is even more impressive.

Wow - worsfold is further along than I would have thought!

 

[IdiotBox]

Wow - worsfold is further along than I would have thought!

12 years at West Coast got him 149 wins with the two peak years of 2005-2006 (back-to-back grand finals) being the standouts.

 

[grumbleguts]

So this stat epitomises this thread.

According to the afl website there have been 4733 frees paid to teams, and 4734 frees paid against teams. One free kick somehow got paid against someone without anyone being paid it.

Umpire: Free kick against YOU Jack Gunston
Gunner: Why
Umpire: Dunno.
Gunner: Who's it go to? I mean who am I giving the ball to.
Umpire: Dunno, just wanted to pay a free kick against Hawthorn.

 

[IdiotBox]

So this stat epitomises this thread.

According to the afl website there have been 4733 frees paid to teams, and 4734 frees paid against teams. One free kick somehow got paid against someone without anyone being paid it.

Umpire: Free kick against YOU Jack Gunston
Gunner: Why
Umpire: Dunno.
Gunner: Who's it go to? I mean who am I giving the ball to.
Umpire: Dunno, just wanted to pay a free kick against Hawthorn.

I think it must have been the one paid to "Gary Ablett" last weekend. Not against anyone; just to Gary for well...just being Gary. It's the only plausible explanation.

 

[grumbleguts]

I think it must have been the one paid to "Gary Ablett" last weekend. Not against anyone; just to Gary for well...just being Gary. It's the only plausible explanation.

But... It was paid against, without being paid to anyone! There's an extra free against and one fewer frees for.

 

[Gralin]

But... It was paid against, without being paid to anyone! There's an extra free against and one fewer frees for.

I wonder if a free was paid and the siren went and it wasn't going to impact the result so the player didn't take his disposal, seems like the kind of thing that could lead to an imbalance, probably just incompetence in record keeping though

 

[IdiotBox]

But... It was paid against, without being paid to anyone! There's an extra free against and one fewer frees for.

Oops...

 

[grumbleguts]

I wonder if a free was paid and the siren went and it wasn't going to impact the result so the player didn't take his disposal, seems like the kind of thing that could lead to an imbalance, probably just incompetence in record keeping though

I thought about that when I read it, but the free is still paid for as well as against, (just wouldn't count as a disposal.

 

[Gralin]

I thought about that when I read it, but the free is still paid for as well as against, (just wouldn't count as a disposal.

just poor record keeping then

 

[Todman]

Fun one. Pretty sure that since 1950 our club captain (not including fill-in captains) has always been a one-club player (VFL/AFL only). Pretty nifty record - pretty sure no other club comes close to that.

Richie Vandenberg is the only club captain since 1960 not to have a premiership medal.

 

[IdiotBox]

According to an email I received a short while ago, apparently he gets the consolation prize of being appointed to the HFC Board.

 

[Agent Smith]

Richie Vandenberg is the only club captain since 1960 not to have a premiership medal.

#classichawthornproblems

 

[IdiotBox]

Grand Finals. Our raison d'être.

We have played in 19 of them, against 10 different clubs.
We've won 13, lost 6.
Only * has bested us in these contests (2-1).
Only 5 clubs have ever beaten us in a Grand final.

 

[seysearles]

The best team in front of goal this season shouldn’t be too surprising — it’s been the same for a while now. Hawthorn’s accuracy is remarkably consistent and it has seen them average 8.8 points more per game than would be expected of an average side.

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Stats Insider: How Western Bulldogs, Geelong Cats have been most hurt by inaccurate goalkicking, expected scores

• MAX LAUGHTON

SOMETIMES the most simple things in footy are the most important.

For all of the planning pre game and in the coaches’ box, even the master tacticians of the AFL can’t help when their team just can’t kick straight.

For Western Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge, that has been extremely apparent in 2016 — because his side should be undefeated.

Analysis from AFL stat gurus Champion Data reveals that nine games this season have been decided by goalkicking. They use a metric called ‘expected score’, which analyses each scoring shot based on difficulty and gives it a value based on how often you would expect a team to goal from that spot on the ground.

By comparing a game’s expected score to the actual score, we can then confirm what you can already see when you look at the scoreboard some weeks — teams that kick poorly while their opponents kick straight can cost themselves the game.

Remarkably, three of the nine matches decided this season by goalkicking were the Bulldogs’ three losses.
Against Hawthorn in Round 3, the Dogs fell by three points while recording two extra scoring shots — they should have won by seven points.

Then against North Melbourne in Round 6 it was the same story. The Bulldogs had one fewer scoring shot than the Kangaroos but had higher-quality chances, meaning in a game they lost by 16 points, they should have won by eight.

The Round 9 loss to GWS is perhaps the most surprising. The Dogs were seemingly soundly beaten, losing 15.8 (98) to 10.13 (73). But the visitors had same number of scoring chances as the Giants and better ones too, meaning that if they had kicked as expected, the Bulldogs would’ve gotten over the line by four points.

It’s not just the Bulldogs who have been impacted heavily by goalkicking though, with two fellow top four sides having wildly different seasons in front of goal.

THE TEAMS MOST HURT AND HELPED BY GOALKICKING

EVEN three weeks later, it’s still hard to figure out how Collingwood ran over premiership contenders Geelong.

The Magpies’ best win of the season saw them defeat the Cats by 24 points but in reality that result was just a microcosm of Geelong’s season.

If Geelong had kicked as expected, they would have beaten Collingwood by 10 points. That 34-point swing from expected to actual margin is tied for second for the biggest difference this season.

The largest change came in Round 2’s Showdown, when Adelaide won 22.12 (144) to Port Adelaide’s 11.20 (86). With average goalkicking by both sides, the Crows would have won 125 to the Power’s 105 — a swing of 39 points.

But overall, the Cats have been heavily impacted by both their inaccuracy and their opponents’ good work in front of goal this season, to the tune of nine points per game.

On average in 2016 Geelong has scored 4.5 points fewer than it should have and given up 4.4 points more than it should have, using expected goals to analyse scoring opportunities.

That places it second-last in the competition ahead of only Richmond. The Tigers have been average in front of goal but their opponents have kicked remarkably straight all season, costing them to the tune of nearly 10 points per match.

The best team in front of goal this season shouldn’t be too surprising — it’s been the same for a while now. Hawthorn’s accuracy is remarkably consistent and it has seen them average 8.8 points more per game than would be expected of an average side.

The two Sydney sides are second and third, with GWS scoring 8.2 more points per game than expected and the Swans averaging an extra 7.1 points more per game thanks to straight kicking.

In fact, comparing the Swans with Geelong makes for some surprising reading.

WHY THE CATS SHOULD BE CRUISING

FLYING high with the AFL’s best percentage, you wouldn’t be blamed for tipping Sydney as the flag favourite.

But if they can’t keep kicking straighter than usual — or if Geelong can stop missing — things may change.

Sydney’s average margin per game this season is +32.3, ranking first in the league. But thanks to their own straight kicking and some inaccuracy from opponents, they are adding an extra 9.3 points per game to their margin.

Instead, those inaccurate Cats should be ranking first for average margin. Their actual average is +29.2 when, with a conversion rate as expected, it would be +38.1.
The two other sides most impacted by kicking for goal are Melbourne and Richmond, and they sit at opposite ends of the spectrum.

The Demons have added a goal per game more than you would expect based on straight kicking and their opponents’ inaccuracy has added another few points as well.

If things had just gone as expected then, Melbourne’s average margin per game wouldn’t be +4.9 and would instead be -3.6 — putting their percentage below 100 rather than at its current 105.1.

They’d be judged much differently if that was the case, as would Richmond if their opponents would stop slotting goals so easily.

On average in 2016 Richmond has lost by a margin of 18.5, but using expected goals, they should be losing by an average of 9.2 points per game. That would make their case for an unlikely finals run much more likely.

http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/sta...s/news-story/412000efb3bf418c2596d17bc7883b02

 

[cryptor]

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Stats Insider: How Western Bulldogs, Geelong Cats have been most hurt by inaccurate goalkicking, expected scores

• MAX LAUGHTON

SOMETIMES the most simple things in footy are the most important.

For all of the planning pre game and in the coaches’ box, even the master tacticians of the AFL can’t help when their team just can’t kick straight.

For Western Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge, that has been extremely apparent in 2016 — because his side should be undefeated.

Analysis from AFL stat gurus Champion Data reveals that nine games this season have been decided by goalkicking. They use a metric called ‘expected score’, which analyses each scoring shot based on difficulty and gives it a value based on how often you would expect a team to goal from that spot on the ground.

By comparing a game’s expected score to the actual score, we can then confirm what you can already see when you look at the scoreboard some weeks — teams that kick poorly while their opponents kick straight can cost themselves the game.

Remarkably, three of the nine matches decided this season by goalkicking were the Bulldogs’ three losses.
Against Hawthorn in Round 3, the Dogs fell by three points while recording two extra scoring shots — they should have won by seven points.

Then against North Melbourne in Round 6 it was the same story. The Bulldogs had one fewer scoring shot than the Kangaroos but had higher-quality chances, meaning in a game they lost by 16 points, they should have won by eight.

The Round 9 loss to GWS is perhaps the most surprising. The Dogs were seemingly soundly beaten, losing 15.8 (98) to 10.13 (73). But the visitors had same number of scoring chances as the Giants and better ones too, meaning that if they had kicked as expected, the Bulldogs would’ve gotten over the line by four points.

It’s not just the Bulldogs who have been impacted heavily by goalkicking though, with two fellow top four sides having wildly different seasons in front of goal.

THE TEAMS MOST HURT AND HELPED BY GOALKICKING

EVEN three weeks later, it’s still hard to figure out how Collingwood ran over premiership contenders Geelong.

The Magpies’ best win of the season saw them defeat the Cats by 24 points but in reality that result was just a microcosm of Geelong’s season.

If Geelong had kicked as expected, they would have beaten Collingwood by 10 points. That 34-point swing from expected to actual margin is tied for second for the biggest difference this season.

The largest change came in Round 2’s Showdown, when Adelaide won 22.12 (144) to Port Adelaide’s 11.20 (86). With average goalkicking by both sides, the Crows would have won 125 to the Power’s 105 — a swing of 39 points.

But overall, the Cats have been heavily impacted by both their inaccuracy and their opponents’ good work in front of goal this season, to the tune of nine points per game.

On average in 2016 Geelong has scored 4.5 points fewer than it should have and given up 4.4 points more than it should have, using expected goals to analyse scoring opportunities.

That places it second-last in the competition ahead of only Richmond. The Tigers have been average in front of goal but their opponents have kicked remarkably straight all season, costing them to the tune of nearly 10 points per match.

The best team in front of goal this season shouldn’t be too surprising — it’s been the same for a while now. Hawthorn’s accuracy is remarkably consistent and it has seen them average 8.8 points more per game than would be expected of an average side.

The two Sydney sides are second and third, with GWS scoring 8.2 more points per game than expected and the Swans averaging an extra 7.1 points more per game thanks to straight kicking.

In fact, comparing the Swans with Geelong makes for some surprising reading.

WHY THE CATS SHOULD BE CRUISING

FLYING high with the AFL’s best percentage, you wouldn’t be blamed for tipping Sydney as the flag favourite.

But if they can’t keep kicking straighter than usual — or if Geelong can stop missing — things may change.

Sydney’s average margin per game this season is +32.3, ranking first in the league. But thanks to their own straight kicking and some inaccuracy from opponents, they are adding an extra 9.3 points per game to their margin.

Instead, those inaccurate Cats should be ranking first for average margin. Their actual average is +29.2 when, with a conversion rate as expected, it would be +38.1.
The two other sides most impacted by kicking for goal are Melbourne and Richmond, and they sit at opposite ends of the spectrum.

The Demons have added a goal per game more than you would expect based on straight kicking and their opponents’ inaccuracy has added another few points as well.

If things had just gone as expected then, Melbourne’s average margin per game wouldn’t be +4.9 and would instead be -3.6 — putting their percentage below 100 rather than at its current 105.1.

They’d be judged much differently if that was the case, as would Richmond if their opponents would stop slotting goals so easily.

On average in 2016 Richmond has lost by a margin of 18.5, but using expected goals, they should be losing by an average of 9.2 points per game. That would make their case for an unlikely finals run much more likely.

http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/sta...s/news-story/412000efb3bf418c2596d17bc7883b02

Are they saying every team should kick as accurately as the league average suggests? If so that is incredibly dumb. There will always be teams who are better at something than other teams.

Hawthorn aren't defying odds by kicking at goal better than the rest of the league. It's just a product of our skillful players and a focus on goal kicking practice.

 

[savagebradley]

Are they saying every team should kick as accurately as the league average suggests? If so that is incredibly dumb. There will always be teams who are better at something than other teams.

Hawthorn aren't defying odds by kicking at goal better than the rest of the league. It's just a product of our skillful players and a focus on goal kicking practice.

They also don't understand that fact that every time a goal is kicked, the ball goes back to a centre bounce, where the ball is 50:50 up for grabs.
So when you kick a goal, you have to start agin.

The game changes completely.

 

[grumbleguts]

When Franklin played for hawthorn his free for/free against ratio was 0.56. Since he joined the swans it has been 0.79.

This free was paid TO franklin

 

[Davo23]

According to an email I received a short while ago, apparently he gets the consolation prize of being appointed to the HFC Board.

I look forward to some pretty feisty board meetings!

 

[cryptor]

When Franklin played for hawthorn his free for/free against ratio was 0.56. Since he joined the swans it has been 0.79.

This free was paid TO franklin

Umpire has a great, unimpeded view of Morris using his neck to hold back Buddy's arm.

 

[Thaihawk]

Can't remember the game, but saw a very interesting stat on the weekend.

One player had 2 contested possessions, but only 1 disposal. How good is the contested possesions count?

 

[Blaze Storm]

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Stats Insider: How Western Bulldogs, Geelong Cats have been most hurt by inaccurate goalkicking, expected scores

• MAX LAUGHTON

SOMETIMES the most simple things in footy are the most important.

For all of the planning pre game and in the coaches’ box, even the master tacticians of the AFL can’t help when their team just can’t kick straight.

For Western Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge, that has been extremely apparent in 2016 — because his side should be undefeated.

Analysis from AFL stat gurus Champion Data reveals that nine games this season have been decided by goalkicking. They use a metric called ‘expected score’, which analyses each scoring shot based on difficulty and gives it a value based on how often you would expect a team to goal from that spot on the ground.

By comparing a game’s expected score to the actual score, we can then confirm what you can already see when you look at the scoreboard some weeks — teams that kick poorly while their opponents kick straight can cost themselves the game.

Remarkably, three of the nine matches decided this season by goalkicking were the Bulldogs’ three losses.
Against Hawthorn in Round 3, the Dogs fell by three points while recording two extra scoring shots — they should have won by seven points.

Then against North Melbourne in Round 6 it was the same story. The Bulldogs had one fewer scoring shot than the Kangaroos but had higher-quality chances, meaning in a game they lost by 16 points, they should have won by eight.

The Round 9 loss to GWS is perhaps the most surprising. The Dogs were seemingly soundly beaten, losing 15.8 (98) to 10.13 (73). But the visitors had same number of scoring chances as the Giants and better ones too, meaning that if they had kicked as expected, the Bulldogs would’ve gotten over the line by four points.

It’s not just the Bulldogs who have been impacted heavily by goalkicking though, with two fellow top four sides having wildly different seasons in front of goal.

THE TEAMS MOST HURT AND HELPED BY GOALKICKING

EVEN three weeks later, it’s still hard to figure out how Collingwood ran over premiership contenders Geelong.

The Magpies’ best win of the season saw them defeat the Cats by 24 points but in reality that result was just a microcosm of Geelong’s season.

If Geelong had kicked as expected, they would have beaten Collingwood by 10 points. That 34-point swing from expected to actual margin is tied for second for the biggest difference this season.

The largest change came in Round 2’s Showdown, when Adelaide won 22.12 (144) to Port Adelaide’s 11.20 (86). With average goalkicking by both sides, the Crows would have won 125 to the Power’s 105 — a swing of 39 points.

But overall, the Cats have been heavily impacted by both their inaccuracy and their opponents’ good work in front of goal this season, to the tune of nine points per game.

On average in 2016 Geelong has scored 4.5 points fewer than it should have and given up 4.4 points more than it should have, using expected goals to analyse scoring opportunities.

That places it second-last in the competition ahead of only Richmond. The Tigers have been average in front of goal but their opponents have kicked remarkably straight all season, costing them to the tune of nearly 10 points per match.

The best team in front of goal this season shouldn’t be too surprising — it’s been the same for a while now. Hawthorn’s accuracy is remarkably consistent and it has seen them average 8.8 points more per game than would be expected of an average side.

The two Sydney sides are second and third, with GWS scoring 8.2 more points per game than expected and the Swans averaging an extra 7.1 points more per game thanks to straight kicking.

In fact, comparing the Swans with Geelong makes for some surprising reading.

WHY THE CATS SHOULD BE CRUISING

FLYING high with the AFL’s best percentage, you wouldn’t be blamed for tipping Sydney as the flag favourite.

But if they can’t keep kicking straighter than usual — or if Geelong can stop missing — things may change.

Sydney’s average margin per game this season is +32.3, ranking first in the league. But thanks to their own straight kicking and some inaccuracy from opponents, they are adding an extra 9.3 points per game to their margin.

Instead, those inaccurate Cats should be ranking first for average margin. Their actual average is +29.2 when, with a conversion rate as expected, it would be +38.1.
The two other sides most impacted by kicking for goal are Melbourne and Richmond, and they sit at opposite ends of the spectrum.

The Demons have added a goal per game more than you would expect based on straight kicking and their opponents’ inaccuracy has added another few points as well.

If things had just gone as expected then, Melbourne’s average margin per game wouldn’t be +4.9 and would instead be -3.6 — putting their percentage below 100 rather than at its current 105.1.

They’d be judged much differently if that was the case, as would Richmond if their opponents would stop slotting goals so easily.

On average in 2016 Richmond has lost by a margin of 18.5, but using expected goals, they should be losing by an average of 9.2 points per game. That would make their case for an unlikely finals run much more likely.

http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/sta...s/news-story/412000efb3bf418c2596d17bc7883b02

I think if you go back to the Rd 1 gameday, you'll find a lot of us talking about how the cats were kicking "bomb and hope" goals all game long, and were VERY lucky to have most of them go through. I felt at the time it was quite uncharacteristic, but apparently according to these gurus, that one game was a reflection of the "awesome geelong team" and every game since where they've butchered the ball in the forward half have been "aberrations"

 

[IdiotBox]

So, after 15 Rounds, and each Club having now played 14 games, we have 114 players who have kicked 10 or more goals.
Port top the table with 9 such players whose combined 199 goals make up just under 78% of ALL of Port's goals for the year thus far.

Buddy has kicked 26.5% of all the Swan goals.
Kennedy, 22.7 % of the Weagles
Reiwoldt, 20.2 % for the Tiggers.

Everyone else is well below 20%

 

[Gralin]

So, after 15 Rounds, and each Club having now played 14 games, we have 114 players who have kicked 10 or more goals.
Port top the table with 9 such players whose combined 199 goals make up just under 78% of ALL of Port's goals for the year thus far.

Buddy has kicked 26.5% of all the Swan goals.
Kennedy, 22.7 % of the Weagles
Reiwoldt, 20.2 % for the Tiggers.

Everyone else is well below 20%

This does highlight our lack of spread this year
We had 14 players kick 10 or more last year, at this stage it looks like we will struggle to get 10 to that point. We are relying a few for our scoring power more than ever.
The efforts of those few have been brilliant but we need to get some of the others picking up some slack.
Particularly, Smith, Hodge, Hill and Hartung (there have been signs)

 

[IdiotBox]

This does highlight our lack of spread this year
We had 14 players kick 10 or more last year, at this stage it looks like we will struggle to get 10 to that point. We are relying a few for our scoring power more than ever.
The efforts of those few have been brilliant but we need to get some of the others picking up some slack.
Particularly, Smith, Hodge, Hill and Hartung (there have been signs)

All our goalkickers so far. Everyone from Hartung up *should* get into double figures. Hodge hasn't blotted the scoresheet at all.

Goal kickers after Round 14
Jack Gunston 33
Luke Breust 31
Cyril Rioli 26
Paul Puopolo 25
James Sicily 22
Tim O’Brien 11
Ben McEvoy 9
Smith 7
Jordan Lewis 7
Ceglar 6
Hill 6
Billy Hartung 6
Shaun Burgoyne 4
Will Langford 3
Stewart 3
Josh Gibson 2
Shiels 2
Jono O’Rourke 1
Schoenmakers 1
Howe 1
Birchall 1
Duryea 1

 

[Gralin]

All our goalkickers so far. Everyone from Hartung up *should* get into double figures. Hodge hasn't blotted the scoresheet at all.

Goal kickers after Round 14
Jack Gunston 33
Luke Breust 31
Cyril Rioli 26
Paul Puopolo 25
James Sicily 22
Tim O’Brien 11
Ben McEvoy 9
Smith 7
Jordan Lewis 7
Ceglar 6
Hill 6
Billy Hartung 6
Shaun Burgoyne 4
Will Langford 3
Stewart 3
Josh Gibson 2
Shiels 2
Jono O’Rourke 1
Schoenmakers 1
Howe 1
Birchall 1
Duryea 1

Comparing that to last year
Gunners, Punky, Sizzle and Poppy all look to equal or beat last year which is a great effort
Sicily could end up covering a big chunk of Rough's goals and TOB could end up around Schoey's output
BB could end up with more goals than Hale
Smith and Hodge kicked over 20 goals each last year, don't see them getting back to those numbers
Hill a bit down on last year, Hartung will end up around last year probably
Lewis should be up on last year but Shiels is well down and that still leaves Suckling input that we have lost.

It's a very different team than last year obviously, it will be interesting to see how this next two months goes some of those guys really had very good finals series to boos their totals