Preview Round 18: North Melbourne vs Essendon, Carrara, Sunday 18/07/2021 @ 12.35PM

Chicken Dinner?

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eth-dog

eth-dog

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Jan 11, 2007
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Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Coburg Lions, All Boston sides
Observations

North Melbourne: North Melbourne had a tight tussle with West Coast in Perth, coming away unexpected winners by 10 points in the wet. Jaidyn Stephenson had a career high 38 disposals and a goal, the star recruit's best game for his short career so far. Focal point Nick Larkey was impressive with 3 goals in less than ideal conditions for a big man.

Essendon: The Bombers quadrupled a hapless Adelaide's score on Friday Night, 84 to 21, the Crows seemingly not even interested in taking the game on. Zach Merrett was dominant for the Bombers with 35 disposals and 5 clearances, whilst young gun Archie Perkins equalled Adelaide's score with 3 goals 3, including a ripper checkside from the boundary


Head to Head (last 5)

North Melbourne 0-5 Essendon


Form Guide

North Melbourne: 2W 2L 1D
Essendon: 2W 3L


Sportsbet odds

North Melbourne: $
Essendon: $
Line: .5 ($1.90)


Possible sides

North Melbourne vs Essendon

FB: Mason Redman - James Stewart - Dyson Heppell
FF: Jack Mahoney - Tristan Xerri - Cameron Zurhaar
HB: Nick Hind - Jayden Laverde - Jordan Ridley
HF: Jaidyn Stephenson - Nick Larkey - Tarryn Thomas
MF: Tom Cutler - Archie Perkins - Matthew Guelfi
MF: Jy Simpkin - Ben Cunnington - Trent Dumont
HF: Alec Waterman - Harrison Jones - Jake Stringer
HB: Jack Ziebell - Josh Walker - Aaron Hall
FF: Nick Bryan - Peter Wright - Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
FB: Robbie Tarrant - Ben McKay - Kayne Turner
OB: Sam Draper - Zachary Merrett - Darcy Parish
OB: Todd Goldstein - Luke Davies-Uniacke - Luke McDonald
IC: Will Snelling - Devon Smith - Martin Gleeson - Nik Cox
IC: Curtis Taylor - Bailey Scott - Shaun Atley - Will Phillips
IS: Brayden Ham
IS: Charlie Lazzaro

North Melbourne in: N/A; Out: N/A
Essendon in: Dyson Heppell, Nick Bryan; Out: Kyle Langford (Hamstring), Cale Hooker (rested)


North Melbourne defence vs Essendon forward line

Essendon have been the third most efficient forward line in the league this season, kicking a goal 24.01% of the time it enters their forward 50. North Melbourne have struggled defensively this season, conceding a goal 25.88% of the time it enters their forward 50. The main interest may be from two young key posts in Harrison Jones, second amongst rising stars for goals against Ben McKay, North's big improver so far this season. Robbie Tarrant's return to football probably puts him against Peter Wright, who has been solid for the Bombers this season as a forward/ruck, whilst Kayne Turner will try to shut down Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, who has a very good record against North Melbourne.


Midfield/rucks battle

Both sides have struggled on the inside this season, North Melbourne losing contested possessions by 9.2 on average and clearances by 1.2 on average, whilst Essendon generally lose the pair by 6.5 and 2.4 respectively. Essendon's big improver this season in the middle is Darcy Parish, the midfielder now averaging 31 disposals and 8 clearances a game, who will be going head to head with North star Ben Cunnington, who is averaging 27 disposals and 7 clearances a game. Both are lacking a little bit of support inside, but on the outside, Zach Merrett up against Trent Dumont promises to be a fascinating battle in between the arcs, whilst Nik Cox will probably go up against son of a gun Bailey Scott as well in an interesting head to head. Rucks wise, Goldstein's experience will probably prove to be invaluable against the less experienced combination of Sam Draper and Nick Bryan.


North Melbourne forward line vs Essendon defence

North Melbourne have the weakest forward line in the AFL, kicking a goal only 18.73% of the time it enters their forward 50. Essendon have struggled defensively this season, conceding a goal 24.29% of the time it enters their defensive 50, 16th in the AFL. The main man for North will be Nick Larkey, who will try to get the better of Jayden Laverde, who shut him down last time these two sides met. The interesting decision will be who takes Cameron Zurhaar, whether it be captain Dyson Heppell or reigning BnF winner Jordan Ridley, whilst Mason Redman will attempt to quell the influence of Tarryn Thomas, one of the better North players the last time the two sides met.


X-Factor Player

Nick Hind has been a revelation off half back, his run and carry being vital this season for the Bombers so far, look for him to exploit that this week against a slower North Melbourne forward line.


Key stat

North Melbourne: Clearances. If they control the midfield with Cunnington and Goldstein that will go a long way towards winning.

Essendon: Goals per inside 50. After struggling the last few weeks, they need to start converting to get into the top 8... I know, it scares me too.


Tip

We have a great record against North. Gonna back us in here by 27 points
 
Last edited:
Actually, scratch not knowing the changes, I'd go:

In: Heppell, Francis, Bryan
Out: Ham, Hooker, Gleeson, Cutler

Redman (Stephenson) - Stewart (Xerri/Campbell) - Francis (Zurhaar)
Hind (Mahoney) - Laverde (Larkey) - Ridley (Taylor)
Langford - Parish - Cox
Smith (Hall) - Jones (Tarrant) - Waterman (Ziebell)
Walla (Turner) - Wright (McKay) - Bryan (Walker)
Draper - Merrett - Stringer
Snelling - Heppell - Perkins - Guelfi
Sub: Gleeson/Cutler
 
Last edited:

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Suspect Langford will miss a week due to the hamstring tightness

Heppell comes in. Hind moves to the wing.

B: Ridley, Stewart, Redman
HB: Gleeson, Laverde, Heppell
C: Hind, Stringer, Cox
HF: Smith, Wright, Waterman
F: Hooker, Jones, McDonald-Tipungwuti
R: Draper, Merrett, Parish
Int: Cutler, Snelling, Perkins, Guelfi
Sub: Ham
 
eth-dog said:
Actually, scratch not knowing the changes, I'd go:

In: Heppell, Francis, Bryan
Out: Ham, Hooker, Gleeson, Cutler

Redman (Stephenson) - Stewart (Xerri/Campbell) - Francis (Zurhaar)
Hind (Mahoney) - Laverde (Larkey) - Ridley (Taylor)
Langford - Parish - Cox
Smith (Hall) - Jones (Tarrant) - Waterman (Ziebell)
Walla (Turner) - Wright (McKay) - Bryan (Walker)
Draper - Merrett - Stringer
Snelling - Heppell - Perkins - Guelfi
Sub: Gleeson/Cutler
Click to expand...
Assuming shiel is not available, would take that.
 
I feel like to the naked eye our centre square one wood is a pretty stock standard play.

Merrett stands defensive side and depending on the play either one of stringer or parish will hit a spot a few meters forward of the bounce at pace (either left or right side) where draper tries to hit it. Off they go out the front of the stoppage and into a F50 entry.

To me a decent opposition coach would just station a stopper or plug a few meters behind the stoppage to stop us exiting the front so easily. It would stifle many of our clearance wins and curtail alot of what is making our midfield work atm
 
MightyDon said:
Hookers not even breaking even, is a liability, bring in a 2nd ruckman Phillips or Bryan and play 2MP in Hookers position.
Click to expand...

I noticed Hooker actually looked to handball last night a couple of times and Jake even had the blinkers off, twice he lowered the eyes when streaming to 50 (butchered the passes) but I think there has been an emphasis on selfless football. Think Devon was away for that meeting. Even the way tippa passed for hooker and everyone got around him, feels like there might be an assist comp going on
 
6 day break for North coming back from the west whilst we have 9 days
 
In- Bryan, Francis, Heppell
Out- Hooker(rest), Gleeson, Langford(inj)

B Laverde Stewart Hind
HB Heppell Francis Ridley
C Cutler Merrett Cox
HF Perkins Jones Snelling
F Smith Wright Tipungwuti
FOLL: Draper Stringer Parish
INTER: Redman, Guelfi, Waterman, Bryan
Sub: Ham
 
Last edited:

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Mikevk123 said:
In- Bryan, Francis, Heppell
Out- Hooker(rest), Gleeson

B Laverde Stewart Hind
HB Heppell Francis Ridley
C Cutler Merrett Cox
HF Perkins Jones Snelling
F Smith Wright Tipungwuti
FOLL: Draper Stringer Parish
INTER: Redman, Guelfi, Waterman, Bryan
Sub: Ham
Click to expand...
You're missing Langford from either your team or your outs
 
Call Me Cake said:
Shiel was listed as 1-3 weeks on the 16th of June.

Should be up for selection by now.
Click to expand...
Suffered a setback week or two ago. He said last night that he’s still couple of weeks away…not sure if he meant playing or full training
 
Not entirely sure if Heppell will be available. I know he said he would be OK, but has said that many times before.
If Francis is back, shouldn't we expect to see him in the VFL side? Even running around for a half to get some touch again.

Langford, with the 9-day break, may be OK.

Hooker --> Bryan
Gleeson --> Heppell (if fit)

Cutler has done enough to get another week.
 
Schnitzengruben said:
Lads, it's Norf.
Click to expand...
Yeah but if we talk them up when we win it sounds better and if we lose we can say we called it.

Therefore

Norf up and about imo, real danger game.
 
lolnorf will throw everything they’ve got at us this time around. It may not be a pretty game but it will be a battle. I dislike having a mindset going into a game that it should just be a big % booster. I’m sure the club won’t be thinking of it in that way.
 
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