Round 19 Discussion (dedicated to gutsroy)

[gutsroy]

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.

And what decided over whether you went 2,500 and were thrusting your genitalia aggressively at innocent bystanders in a display of dominance at the end of rd 18...


... or had to ask your mum to tie a sausage necklace around your neck so at least the neighbours' dog would play with you due to your interesting personal hygiene and lack of charisma was the fickle finger of fate.


Nathaniel Fyfe, crusher of the souls of those who didn’t start him or bring him in after his KO, finally succumbed to the burden of carrying the entire Freo side. He missed this week with septic bursitis (by the sounds), but seems an even money chance to resume his reign of terror on non-holders and oppo defenders this week.

Those with Dylan Clarke or Noah Answerth as cover kept the damage to a minimum, those rocking a donut – or worse, who were subjected to the ignominy of having to look on as Anus Brayshaw fell into a barrel of nipples and came out sucking his thumb time and time again, blurting out an excrement-laden 58 -, had every right to crack the sads.


Shannon’ Bunga’ Hurn was a late out due to calf soreness identified during the Captain’s Run and seems some chance to be rested as a precaution this week, although he was running at training on Tuesday. He won’t be the last premo to cause us sleepless nights on the way home, but he will be the most popular amongst the ewes (and ladies). He’s also the bloke Silvio Berlusconi’s bungas bunga parties are named after. What a lad.

Alright, alright, take a bloody picture,then , Silvio, but then piss off, will you? Can't you see we're in the middle of something here, champ?

His absence left some unlucky souls with acute donut awareness. Others will have had cover, but try as he might, young Griffin Logue (55, not terrible when you consider he was abducted by aliens and subjected to anal probes, failing to trouble the scorers in Q4) and Noah Answerth (compiling a respectable, if unobtrusive 67) can’t fill Drumsticks’ boots for long. Looping them as a D6/7 is OK, especially if you’re out of / down to your last trades and currently have no other choice.

Jarman Impey had had a bloody solid season, was a low ownership option some will have brought in to provide adequate scoring and DPP flexibility, but is sadly out for the foreseeable future after a nasty looking ACL. He would have been some sort of chance for AA squad consideration, real shame for the bloke. There is more of this to come, blokes will be put out to pasture, blokes will be rested to get them cherry ripe, blokes will s**t the bed like there’s no termurra on the run home…

 

[gutsroy]

DEF Line

On the whole, it was a weekend where the premo cream rose on the DEF line, with blue chippers such as Jake Lloyd (121, full season avg 114, good weight at 553k), Zac Williams (103, season avg 102, 554k, a bit overpriced but then again quality has its price) and Lachie Whitfield (119, 111 avg on the season, a bargain 522k for a bloke who tons for fun when he’s not playing hide and seek with the drug testers) reigning supreme down back, with young buck Christian Salem (139, 5-rd avg 112, 507k) and Brodie ‘Smithers’ Smith (127, 3-rd avg a sparkling 107 on the back of a role change, 435k) coming along for the ride.

Excellent, Smithers. Release the beast...


with Cool Hand Luke Ryan (443k, a bargain given his full-season 99 avg) and Bachar Houli (466k) returning to form with 117 and 111 respectively. The halal seagull is an MCG specialist and plays all his remaining games at the G, so he is a very interesting alternative to Ryan, e.g., if you aren’t worried about the impact of other RICH DEFs. Nic Newman only registered an 87, but his 5-rd average is 104, his 3-rd average remains a stellar 114. He's priced at 510k.

Those with some knowledge the German language will be familiar with the term ‘Rampensau’. It means a stage / limelight hog, and with his deliberately quirky op shop perusing habits, love of bending the rules of Marco Polo by going full fish out of water by climbing up goalposts and belting out silky (near) tons at will, Dane Rampensau is an interesting pick. He costs 536k, which is OK for a 103 avg rockstar with a fair trendline. No sensational ‘value’, but solid.


Richie Benaud would be proud of Mark ‘Brownfang’ Blicavs (444k, 5-rd avg 94) and Callum Thrills (444k, 5-rd avg 96), both worthy of some consideration for anyone looking for a low ownership option in the bracket, both enjoying an uptick due to some subtle role changes in recent weeks.

Two left-field options worthy of consideration for those with a Big Mac Meal hunger but a Happy Meal budget for a D6/D7 type are Jeremy Howe (357k, fresh off a 90 and poised to benefit from Darcy Moore’s absence for another couple of weeks, he could maintain an 85-90 clip in the short term with a kick-in bonus) and Hunter Clark (397k, 5-rd avg 90 – honestly don’t know much about him, but he is making waves around the traps, so is worth a mention).


Pay peanuts, get GORILLAS (don't blame me if it goes **** up, I just work here, pal)

But caveat emptor here, folks, we’ve seen Hamish MC Hammer Hartlett (a dreadful 51 this week, 397k), Connor Blakely (74, 79 5-rd avg, 412k), Zac Touhy (64, 78 fulll season avg,304k) , Dan Houston, We Have a Problem and others have all had form surges followed by reversion to the mean / drop-offs due to less promising roles.

And now, a brief segue into the wonderful world of Greek Mythology, let’s take a look at the Chimera:

Chimera

(in Greek mythology) a fire-breathing female monster with a lion's head, a goat's body, and a serpent's tail.

A thing which is hoped for but is illusory or impossible to achieve.



Oh, will you look at that, there’s another entry just below it…

Milera:

• (in SC mythology) a gut-running, pill-hunting monster with a beautiful hoof, GOAT tendencies, and a pig’s voracious appetite, sweeping off the wing into the guts to devour its hapless victims.
• A breakout candidate hoped for, but actually appearing in the form of a s**t-truck lodged firmly and squarely on the never-again list. Premo my arse

... and Wayne shat in it. Again, and again, and again.




There were several pseudo-premo bedsoilers running around on the weekend, chief amongst them Harris Andrews, his 56 in fairness partly due to the play mostly being down the other end, but also partly due to him being a plastic premo.

He’s also been rubbed out for a week on the back of his own evidence to the tribunal (should have run with the ‘bumper bar’ defence, big Harris, or borrowed Gary’s Brownlows for the night).



I’m terribly sorry, Mr and Mrs Andrews, but your son Harris has died of shitness. He has also let many honest, hardworking Australians down and will probably end up in hell. The police are waiting outside to take you into custody for spawning the clown. Now piss off before I cave your ******* skulls in.

But Harris had plenty of mates, with the otherwise generally reliable Tom Stewart (79, 5-rd avg 91, 474k), James Syphilis (77, 5-rd avg 82, 452k), Rory Laird (73, 5-rd avg 94, 477k), Jack Crisp (clickety click, what a sh*tstain, 66, 5-rd avg 99, 486k) all delivering turds of firm consistency and a persistent fruity aroma that will outlast religion. It was that sort of round, truth be told.

Whatever doesn't kill you makes you stronger, or at least easier for the next bear you run into to finish off for good...

 

[gutsroy]

RUC Line

Reilly O’Brien ‘s run of outrageous good fortune continued, the People’s Champ the clear beneficionado of Zac Clarke’s absence due to illness. (Expect Clarke to come straight back in, his form had been very solid the week before.) It has been an incredible run which has allowed him to extract full advantage of coming up against sides with decimated ruck stocks (e,g, RIC in rd 13 and the Bombers on the weekend) and hold his own in between times with few exceptions and no genuine underpant stains to speak of.

He’s the 7th ranked RUC in total points for the year and his 149 on the weekend was a godsend for those still rolling with him at R2. He’s now up to 515k with a BE of 87.


The harder he worked, the luckier big Reilly got.

It may be the perfect time to move him on for Max Gawn, who has now bottomed out after his recent injury-induced 45 coming out of the rolling average and a timely 132 this past week. Maxy has a manageable BE of 114 (he registered 126 in his first outing against this week’s opponent Rowan Marshall) and at 602k is nicely priced. There also seems a reasonable chance that Brayden Preuss (who pumped out a paltry 39 and had no real influence on the game) will be dropped. Gawn had performed well with Preuss in the line-up, but may get a slight uptick if The Prussian is sent back to the twos.

'Great game, Preussy.' 'Cheers Gawndog'. 'Don't take it personally, mate, but I told Goodie it's you or me. I'm no chance to pass Grundy with you around.'

Those with sufficient trades (e.g. if you have more than 4 left and no major issues elsewhere) could ponder downgrading Todd Goldstein to Maxy for the run home. Goldy has his eyes on the prize in terms of sewing up a final juicy contract (St Kilda appearing to be leading the charge for his services) and has skyrocketed to 613k on the back of a 134 3-rd avg. Those with less than 4 trades will have to weigh things up carefully and make their own decision as to whether deploying a trade for a marginal RUC point gain is more valuable than holding the trade(s) back to cover LTI season-enders on other lines.

Brodie Grundy was one of very few Collingwood players who could hold their heads high after having the s**t kicked out of them by a GWS team which overwhelmed them with speed of ball movement. He belted out a huge 157, his 3-rd avg is 146 and he’s back up above the 700k barrier. He has so many avenues to score with his contested possessions, marking around the ground, the occasional goal floating forward and enough HTAs to keep the scoreboard ticking over. There won’t be too many without him and if you don’t have him by now, at his current price you may just have to persevere and hope he cools off.

From a VC/C perspective, running with a combination of Gawn/Grundy seems as good an option as any, with the two effectively guaranteeing as solid score all year and having very complementary game scheduling. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Scotty Lycett (who most will be running as a FWD) registered an underwhelming 85, but this really doesn’t tell the full story. He’s clearly carrying a PCL and with Port’s season on the line, he hasn’t been able to rest it. There seems to be a good chance that Paddy Ryder may return to take some of the workload off him, which would be good from a recovery perspective but would be fatal to his scoring output, which would be OK for those using him more as Fx / R3 swing cover, but horrific for anyone who went him when Gawn recently missed and are running him at R2. He is almost certain to lose the DPP and be RUC-only next year, which likely rules him out of 2020 starting squad consideration for most.

Rowan Marshall (FWD-listed only this year but given his 98% time played as a ruck certain to be RUC-only to start 2020) pumped out a super-solid 142 on Sunday up again the Bulldog Beanpole, Tim English (although English also had a solid game around the ground) and he’s now tipping the scales at 625k on the back of an SP-worthy 133 5-rd avg. He'll be out for revenge against Big Maxy this week.



Rory Lobb scored reasonably at 85, but there seems to be a chance he’ll miss time with a shoulder injury, so keep your eyes peeled if you’re an owner. Non-owners would be advised to steer clear for the time being, he is not one to buy into in the current climate with that uncertainty hanging over his head and big Sandi / Sean Darcy up and about.

From a Draft perspective, Toby Nankervis seems likely to return this week or next week at the very latest and could be one to grab off the waiver wire if somebody else hasn’t already beaten you to it. Do not touch in Classic unless you are hugely strapped for cash, though.

 

[gutsroy]

MID Line:
This line, like the FWDs, was comparatively settled this week (setting aside the keen impact of Josh Kelly continuing to miss – he still looks 2-3 weeks off returning -, Stephen Coniglio definitely not returning in the H&A, Nat Fyfe missing one game due to a bursitis-related infection in his elbow), with most high ownership topliners giving topliner or at least respectable output.

Jack Macrae put together a tidy 120 (he’ll set you back 629 this week, so he’s a touch overs against the full-year 120 average, but pretty much exactly in line with his 5-rd avg of 129).

'Another 120 for my SC side, thanks Jack!' 'Get the * out of my way, campaigner, or I'll poke your eyes out!'

Clayton Oliver – long viewed as a disappointment this year but ultimately solid with a full-year avg of 110 – delivered owners a sparkling 140, his price rising to 585k, pretty much exactly in line with his 5-rd avg of 118). The frustration stems from the fact that he’s be OK in overall points scored, but has had more fluctuation in his output than in previous years. He’s been a bit of a famine or a feast type job, a little like Scott Pendlebury.

Sums up enthusiasm levels for the pick nicely, Clarry. Like kissing your sister, owning Ginger Meggs this year.

Pendles defied the finger issue and while a 97 is nothing to write home about, it’s also not a score that would have cost owners competitiveness in league matchups. He’s sitting at 515k on a full-year avg of 103. If you like his run home, maybe you could look at him, but with the finger maybe impacting him slightly, you'd want to be sure. Either way, the output in those circumstances gets a tick.


Adam Treloar kept on keeping on with 116, his full-season avg a respectable 109. He’ll set you back 564k this week, which is about good weight. The impact of Taylor Adams’ return was negligible (and there’s no real evidence of a correlation between the two tbh). Adams himself shapes as a low-cost option this week or next, he’s at 469k on the back of the 97 and looks set to drop to around 460k. Dustin Martin is also in the bracket at 461k off a 104 and after a slightly subdued last month could really come home with a wet sail as the Tigers set up camp at the G for the remainder of the H&A.

Jarryd Lyons has been off his head of late and set forth the hot streak this week with a huge 165. His 5-rd avg sits at 119, he is priced at 530k and has a BE of 14, so if you like what you see, trade now or forever hold your peace.

Zach Merrett racked up a 120 in leading the Bombers to a come-from-behind win over the Crows in Adelaide. That score felt subjectively slightly unders given his impact late, but not massively so, and at 493k for a 107 avg, the price is right.

His main competition for your final MID slot in the price bracket, Mitch Duncan, went blow for blow with Zerrett, punching out a 123. He’s priced at 500k and if you think Zerrett might attract some attention in the upcoming fixtures, Duncan’s a very viable alternative, the Cats having a very nice draw from here.

Andrew Gaff is a third alternative at 505k, he returned to form with a 114, having recently gotten a heap of the pill but not doing that much with it, leading to him being mired in the 90’s of late .His full-year avg of 105 is a touch under that of Zerrett and Duncan, but there’s not much in it, tbh.

Tim Taranto recognized and leapt headlong into the void of significance in the GWS midfield created by the absence of Josh Kelly and Stephen Coniglio. His 113 output seems fairly sustainable and 509k for a 106-avg on the year ticks the boxes in terms of ‘value’.

Ben Cunnington refrained from gut punching blokes for long enough to return to the winner’s circle with a 105. He’s now down to 500k, which is sensational value for a bloke with his ceiling as long as you reckon he’ll keep his nose clean. Another North player to have on the radar is Shaun Higgins, who returned from injury with a 98. He is priced at 451k, which is very good value for a bloke who can go on runs when he’s right, and his body should be fresh in theory.

Marcus Bontempelli (70, 565k), Patrick Cripps (73, 559k), Rory Sloane (73) and Matt Crouch (90) were probably the main offenders in terms of not living up to expectations. The Bont and Cripper both look a touch not quite right, Sloaney had to deal with Dylan Clarke’s attention and Crouch was overshadowed by his brother Brad, who belted out a splendiferous 129.

Angus Brayshaw, again plagued by role uncertainty, scored a horrendous 58. He seemed to start the game in a run-with role, spent time on a wing, up forward and some time in the middle at stages, and at this stage of proceedings, it is impossible to know from one week to the next where he’ll line up and if he’ll give remotely passable output.

You didn’t honestly think you could run Gussy Brayshaw at M8 / 9 and get the odd ton out of him, did you?*
* Yours truly did haha, * me drunk.

Dylan Clarke, who many will still be holding with a view to extracting 1-2 more price rises out of prior to cashing him in, could honestly tempt many who have been running Gussy at M8/M9 to just keep Clarke as cover and cash in Brayshaw to fund an upgrade in the MID line or elsewhere. Things are crook in Tallarook with many already kicking back at Dunkin’ Donuts or the No Trades Club, so we can only hope to Christ they’ll turn somehow, unless… y’all got any more of them trades?

 

[gutsroy]

FWD Line

The FWD line was very settled this week, with most commonly held premos giving us the sort of output we are looking to see as we look to peak coming into finals.

Josh Dunkley (127 on the round, stellar contested work once more and generally pretty sharp disposal, in line with his 129 3-rd average) is genuinely Ueberpremo and continues to justify his 650k pricetag. There have been some initial whsipers that he may be a little banged up and some chance to miss this week, so one to keep an eye on.

Paddy Dangerfield didn’t fulfil VC/C expectations with 106, but other than that fulfilled the brief.

Rowan Marshall underlined his SP credentials anew with a C-worthy 142. He’s up to 625k with his recent average hovering around 130. He’ll face a couple of stern tests on the run home, starting with Maxy Gawn this week, but such has been his improvement over the course of the year that we might be mourning Big Maxy’s untimely passing this time next week.

Jack Billings’ 113 has him a tough under 120 on the 3-rd average und nudging up towards 100 on the season, sensational value for anyone who showed faith in him from the word go.

Son Son Walters brought up a 104, he’s priced to average (101) ant 501k and is giving you the output you’re after.

Toby Greene is benefitting from pushing up into the middle with Josh Kelly and Stephen Coniglio out and his price has skyrocketed to 451k on the back of a 112 this week and 107 3-wk avg. The one danger is that he’s not known for his durability and there is always the chance that he picks up a niggle or soreness and has to sit out a week when his load stays high, but otherwise he’s sensational value in the role and with GWS having a pretty fair fixture over the remaining rounds.



Jack Darling’s 125 continued his strong recent formline (100 3-rd avg) and he’s priced at 459k, so he might attract some interest. But to be honest, KPPs are always best picked up at a lower price to offset the risk of a form trough, and other options such as Tom Lynch (up to 380k with a really nice last month of footy behind him and partner in crime Jack Riewoldt back in the lineup to take some of the focus away from Lynch) are probably just as viable (even though Lynch was best picked up at his basement price around the 270k mark from a risk/reward point of view.

Scotty Lycett (85, PCL troubling him), Jack Ziebell (65, his output suffering with Shaun Higgins returning to the lineup and seeing Ziebell playing more forward and Higgins getting the lion’s share of CBAs in the second half) and Caleb Daniel (68, back earlier than expected from the hamstring strain but not taking kick-ins and with only one game remaining at Marvel Stadium from here on in) would all be worrying owners to a degree. They are most likely holds for all other than the trade-rich and in need of wins to secure finals berths this week, but are not to be brought in this week in a seller’s market. Robbie Gray’s 60 came at a bad time for anyone who jumped on recently, Isaac Heeney was mediocre with 85, that with the odd outburst is probably all we can expect this year from him.

'Are you not entertained?' If they forked out 600k-odd for a bloke with a bung PCL, probably not tbh, Scotty. I still love you though. That's what counts.


Tim Kelly disappointed with a 74, but he will have the odd day like this, it all depends on who’s getting time in the middle from one week to the next. He still has the ceiling and his fundamentals seem to remain sound.

If I had a dollar for every time I had to read James Worpel owners pissing and moaning about a young kid on the way up ‘only’ pumping out an 80-90 this year, I’d have … well, a number of dollars greater than zero, that’s for sure. He has belted out back-to-back tons with 109 and 105 over the last two weeks and is sitting at 449k with a 56 BE. If he’s your biggest problem, you have no problems at all, to be honest. Big passmark for the Worpedo, all told, Mission 2019 accomplished.

Jeremy Cameron (132) and Tom Hawkins (92) both compensated recent purchasers to an extent for what had been very poor recent form and in doing so took a Sard Wonderstick to the collective stained underpant of their embattled owners. It’ll still need a couple of cycles in the washing machine at 60oC, but there’s a chance she’ll be good as new by the end of the year if they can give us another couple of scores in the 110+ range between now and rd 23.

We couldn't look at your scores over the last month either, Jezza. You still owe us, campaigner.

Hayden McLean (SYD, 102k, FWD only, rookie) played his first game and got off to a flyer before slowing in Q3/q4, still recording a solid 85 on debut, might attract some attention as he could see at least 1-2 more games and at 102k allows you to extract maximum value from any tradeouts to maximize available cash for trade-ins. Ian 'Bobby' Hill (GWS, 117k, MID/FWD DPP) and Doulton Langlands (St K, 124k, MID/FWED eligible the alternatives in the space.

Bobby just needs to put in a bit more work on setties.

 

[SavDog23]

Chol 150 this week campaigners

 

[PoopingHindi]

Chol 150 this week campaigners

in the VFL

 

[stevebbb]

3 weeks now I've sat just above the top 1000. Hoping this is the week!

Most likely no trades again

 

[AFDogs]

No Fyfe or Hurn last week and I still lost my main cashie to a bloke who had 3 rookies on field vs. my 1 (Rowbottom with a nice 71 too). Crisp, Laird, Sicily, Gray and I'll even throw JPK into that mix, can all GAGF. 14 more points is all I needed.

Add to that the Dogs bottling an important game with finals on the line

My local footy team losing making it harder for us to play finals

This footy season s**t is hard man

But it's Wednesday - the sun is shining. My team is complete with Taranto coming in. Everything on the line this week in a must win game. Let's do this kents.

 

[Nelso]

Looking forward to another round of hostility between the people with trades and the people who don't

 

[Benno_900]

Did anybody get burnt by Hurn playing the Smith loophole?

I don't think the rookie loop has worked out for me all season. Not going to bother anymore.

 

[Benno_900]

Bachar Houli (466k) returning to form with 117 and 111 respectively. The halal seagull is an MCG specialist and plays all his remaining games at the G, so he is a very interesting alternative to Ryan,

So is Jake Lloyd the haram seagull?

 

[Andrew Birch]

Looking forward to another round of hostility between the people with trades and the people who don't

 

[TurtleKid]

Looking forward to another round of hostility between the people with trades and the people who don't

The No-Traders are growing in numbers.

You can see JM below leading the horde

 

[Plugger35]

The No-Traders are growing in numbers.

You can see JM below leading the horde

I joined the ranks of the No Traders last weekend, I'm sweating on Fyfe and Jelly returning ASAP as I can't keep relying on Clarke and Setterfield as cover.

Seems like Fyfe is a good chance of returning this week but Jelly could be another week or two away, if I still had trades I'd probably turf him.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Looking forward to another round of hostility between the people with trades and the people who don't

First year this has happened .... the no trades club was indecent held up as prestigious and the ultimate of campaigners

What has happened to this glorious institution

 

[Hava Alle]

Boak a no show at training.

 

[vast]

Cant even have 1 week with a full team ffs

 

[Northernsoul74]

Boak a no show at training.

Ha ha and so it starts. Little rumour on our board Dunkley is in some doubt as well.

 

[mochacinolatte]

Adelaide vs Carlton is the game of the round.

 

[Andrew Birch]

Adelaide vs Carlton is the game of the round.

If Carlton win this game, they win the trade they did with Adelaide. Simples.

 

[JuddgementDay]

Any chance that Laird can regain some form and go from spud to stud?
We'll do our part and kick plenty of points so that he can junk it up back there, and help get him back into form

 

[SavDog23]

Boak a no show at training.

All good.

I have the Chol.

 

[SavDog23]

Ha ha and so it starts. Little rumour on our board Dunkley is in some doubt as well.

Now this is what I'm talking about.
Will have less than 20 playing at this rate.
#eco

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Looking forward to another round of hostility between the people with trades and the people who don't

You got trades don't you you filthy piece of s**t campaigner