dlanod
Moderator
- Sep 14, 2006
- 52,399
- 81,190
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- GWS; CCMariners; NQCowboys; Ravens
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- #1
Last year...
In previous years it's been relatively easy to do this preview. I pretty consistently compare and contrast the different sections of the field, who has the advantage of each, and then tip the Giants. Obviously last year I finally got the last bit wrong after six straight losses - not one of our most heralded losing streaks that we ended last year, but still up there. On the field we did everything right and despite the Giants keeping it "close" once we got a jump on them, they never really looked like pulling it back.
However from the above context it's pretty obvious I'm talking about the regular season only. The game in finals was a completely different matter. The Giants had knuckled down to a blue collar pressure approach, while relying on some of the best intercept markers in the game - everyone knows about Haynes, but Davis was top 5 last year as well. Combined with Taylor's coming of age they basically just shut down our increasingly desperate and frantic attempts to score. They smashed the Dogs (a not-so-quiet media darling at the time), and then pipped us (not a media darling) and the Pies (a premiership favourite by that point) with this combination of hitting hard over the ball and chopping off attacks. It came apart in the grand final but mainly due to players like Tomlinson and others panicing under pressure until their opportunity was gone.
This year...
So... we have two almost diametrically opposite matchups last year to confound predictions this year. What about form this year? Well, again it's a puzzle on both counts. We've looked good. I'm discarding Round 1 for both teams, because who cares what happened back then (a quick reminder - the teams currently in 2nd and 3rd and 8th lost by four or five goals each. 4th and 14th, and 6th and 16th played games that were decided by a kick or less. We weren't in lockdowns. What a time). Easily disposing of WA and SA teams, including the at-that-point intimidating Port, saw us on top of the world before one quarter against Geelong bought all our doubts and insecurities crashing back. Our midfield and defense has been pretty solid in general and our forward line has shone at times, and other times basically played their structures well enough to keep us on top.
GWS has struggled, losing to the Dogs (again) and NM (what!) before apparently reaching redemption over Collingwood (how can one loss kick off such a messed up fortnight for a club I don't know, but I love it) and Hawthorn (except now it turns out they're crap)... and then struggling against the same Port team we just beat comfortably. More prediction confounding! GWS's midfield has been a rollercoaster, with Kelly looking like a star but only 50% of the time, Coniglio playing the role Mitch Robinson does for us for approximately 17 times the pay packet, and Hopper taking a step back, seemingly deferring to the out of form Coniglio. Taranto should be back this week, and might be the spark they are looking for but god knows how they'll fit them all in without rotating someone (their captain?) out of there. Whitfield is the only real star delivering each week, and the shorter quarters has hampered his ability to run teams off their legs. The defense has been fine but their forward line has been border-line dysfunctional. How a team with four genuine options to goal can struggle to score is mind-blowing.
In conclusion...
Overall I think we've easily demonstrated the most since the restart. Sitting in 3rd isn't a fluke. We're the only team to beat 1st and we lost one quarter to 2nd. GWS sitting in 10th isn't really a fluke given their form to date, but it's also pretty clear they're underperforming in the regular season (again). As an admitted fan, member, and follower of both teams, I can't help but wonder what Fagan would be able to do with GWS's talent given his ability to take role players and turn them into key parts of our team by playing to their strengths. OTOH Leon Cameron seems to turn stars into role players by picking them and expecting them to win individual battles without support.
I'd argue GWS still has more talent on the field, though the gap is closing quickly with McCluggage, Berry and others developing well, but our ability to stick to structures and break down repeated issues in GWS's (poor zone defense, slow ball movement, a preference to contain rather than pressure) should see us handle this. (Caveat: unless they somehow flick that switch that turns them into a high pressure, high intensity team that they seem to randomly toggle after a loss sometimes. I would be more confident if they'd beaten Port.)
In previous years it's been relatively easy to do this preview. I pretty consistently compare and contrast the different sections of the field, who has the advantage of each, and then tip the Giants. Obviously last year I finally got the last bit wrong after six straight losses - not one of our most heralded losing streaks that we ended last year, but still up there. On the field we did everything right and despite the Giants keeping it "close" once we got a jump on them, they never really looked like pulling it back.
However from the above context it's pretty obvious I'm talking about the regular season only. The game in finals was a completely different matter. The Giants had knuckled down to a blue collar pressure approach, while relying on some of the best intercept markers in the game - everyone knows about Haynes, but Davis was top 5 last year as well. Combined with Taylor's coming of age they basically just shut down our increasingly desperate and frantic attempts to score. They smashed the Dogs (a not-so-quiet media darling at the time), and then pipped us (not a media darling) and the Pies (a premiership favourite by that point) with this combination of hitting hard over the ball and chopping off attacks. It came apart in the grand final but mainly due to players like Tomlinson and others panicing under pressure until their opportunity was gone.
This year...
So... we have two almost diametrically opposite matchups last year to confound predictions this year. What about form this year? Well, again it's a puzzle on both counts. We've looked good. I'm discarding Round 1 for both teams, because who cares what happened back then (a quick reminder - the teams currently in 2nd and 3rd and 8th lost by four or five goals each. 4th and 14th, and 6th and 16th played games that were decided by a kick or less. We weren't in lockdowns. What a time). Easily disposing of WA and SA teams, including the at-that-point intimidating Port, saw us on top of the world before one quarter against Geelong bought all our doubts and insecurities crashing back. Our midfield and defense has been pretty solid in general and our forward line has shone at times, and other times basically played their structures well enough to keep us on top.
GWS has struggled, losing to the Dogs (again) and NM (what!) before apparently reaching redemption over Collingwood (how can one loss kick off such a messed up fortnight for a club I don't know, but I love it) and Hawthorn (except now it turns out they're crap)... and then struggling against the same Port team we just beat comfortably. More prediction confounding! GWS's midfield has been a rollercoaster, with Kelly looking like a star but only 50% of the time, Coniglio playing the role Mitch Robinson does for us for approximately 17 times the pay packet, and Hopper taking a step back, seemingly deferring to the out of form Coniglio. Taranto should be back this week, and might be the spark they are looking for but god knows how they'll fit them all in without rotating someone (their captain?) out of there. Whitfield is the only real star delivering each week, and the shorter quarters has hampered his ability to run teams off their legs. The defense has been fine but their forward line has been border-line dysfunctional. How a team with four genuine options to goal can struggle to score is mind-blowing.
In conclusion...
Overall I think we've easily demonstrated the most since the restart. Sitting in 3rd isn't a fluke. We're the only team to beat 1st and we lost one quarter to 2nd. GWS sitting in 10th isn't really a fluke given their form to date, but it's also pretty clear they're underperforming in the regular season (again). As an admitted fan, member, and follower of both teams, I can't help but wonder what Fagan would be able to do with GWS's talent given his ability to take role players and turn them into key parts of our team by playing to their strengths. OTOH Leon Cameron seems to turn stars into role players by picking them and expecting them to win individual battles without support.
I'd argue GWS still has more talent on the field, though the gap is closing quickly with McCluggage, Berry and others developing well, but our ability to stick to structures and break down repeated issues in GWS's (poor zone defense, slow ball movement, a preference to contain rather than pressure) should see us handle this. (Caveat: unless they somehow flick that switch that turns them into a high pressure, high intensity team that they seem to randomly toggle after a loss sometimes. I would be more confident if they'd beaten Port.)
