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Play Nice Scott Morrison 2.0 - How Long? Part 8 - Lose Unit. Game Over, Bulldozer. Cont in Part 9

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May 13, 2008
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Part 5 is here:

Part 6 is here:

Part 7 is here:

Part 9 is here:
 
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I think the most likely outcome is in-between.

Putin secures Donetsk/Lugansk, beats back the opposition for a bit, then stops short of Kiev and goes back. That way, he makes his point while incurring minimal casualties and averting a protracted, bloody conflict. I call this the 'Georgia template'.

Although Georgia's a much smaller country, that war lasted less than a fortnight. I don't think Putin will want to spend more than a month fighting Ukraine (too many casualties), so the war won't last long enough to help ScoMo, and I just don't think he can exploit much political capital from it anyway. It's a foreign policy issue much more than it is a national security issue.



Won't happen.

They didn't over Georgia, and they're definitely not going to risk a direct shooting war with a nuclear power.
I don't think Putin will enter the areas which weren't already in "dispute". There won't be enough of a conflict for Morrison to wave any flags. Our biggest warship is crippled and our planes are no match for Russian air-power, so they won't be sent. Sending the SAS isn't even a particularly palatable move at the moment as our most decorated soldier is holding a defamation case which he appears to have triggered just to get people into a court to explain what an awful person and probable war criminal he is.

It'll be bluff and bluster and China will get upset and throw it in our faces. Morrison will claim some sort of victory and the media will herald it. Only question is how many of the people see through it.
 
I don't think Putin will enter the areas which weren't already in "dispute". There won't be enough of a conflict for Morrison to wave any flags. Our biggest warship is crippled and our planes are no match for Russian air-power, so they won't be sent. Sending the SAS isn't even a particularly palatable move at the moment as our most decorated soldier is holding a defamation case which he appears to have triggered just to get people into a court to explain what an awful person and probable war criminal he is.

It'll be bluff and bluster and China will get upset and throw it in our faces. Morrison will claim some sort of victory and the media will herald it. Only question is how many of the people see through it.
Come Election Day do you think a conflict that means nothing to the average Aussie that’s been finished for a few months will be forefront of peoples minds or do you think two years of a shit show that effected everyone’s everyday life will be at the front of their mind?
 
Morrison is going on the attack. He's painting himself as a wartime leader in a time of crisis:


Remember, he fell in popularity in the bushfires but then rose at the start of Covid. It was only in 2021 that the Libs polling numbers fell as Covid dragged on. Morrison knows that Tampa and then 9/11 saved Howard. Now the pandemic, and all the negative connotations he gained from that, has subsided he is going to use national security to paint himself as a "Decisive leader", standing up to Putin and the media will fall for it.

I think there will be an inevitable turnaround in the Liberal's polling from now on.
IF they go on to lose the election, i'll cite 2 major moments.

1 - The porter / Higgins double whammy
2 - the delta lockdown in Sydney
 

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I don't think Putin will enter the areas which weren't already in "dispute". There won't be enough of a conflict for Morrison to wave any flags. Our biggest warship is crippled and our planes are no match for Russian air-power, so they won't be sent. Sending the SAS isn't even a particularly palatable move at the moment as our most decorated soldier is holding a defamation case which he appears to have triggered just to get people into a court to explain what an awful person and probable war criminal he is.

It'll be bluff and bluster and China will get upset and throw it in our faces. Morrison will claim some sort of victory and the media will herald it. Only question is how many of the people see through it.

Abbottabad tried that tack and the ADF rebuffed him; I can't imagine they'd be any more enthusiastic about doing it now.
 
Come Election Day do you think a conflict that means nothing to the average Aussie that’s been finished for a few months will be forefront of peoples minds or do you think two years of a sh*t show that effected everyone’s everyday life will be at the front of their mind?
At this point, Morrison just wants one thing which makes him look semi-competent or statesman-like to break a streak of idiocy.

It's not going to be one thing, it's going to be a number of things he'll need to dig him out of this poop.

Desperately needs ANYTHING to make people look at him as anything other than a posing buffoon.
 
At this point, Morrison just wants one thing which makes him look semi-competent or statesman-like to break a streak of idiocy.

It's not going to be one thing, it's going to be a number of things he'll need to dig him out of this poop.

Desperately needs ANYTHING to make people look at him as anything other than a posing buffoon.
A lot have already made up their mind. He’s done imo
 
IF they go on to lose the election, i'll cite 2 major moments.

1 - The porter / Higgins /Tudge triple whammy
2 - the delta lockdown in Sydney
Just added one.

Tudge might have been a nothing story if it wasn't along with the other three.

Throw in Joyce and it's not like they've got a cleanskin amongst them to make them look better.
 
 
Come Election Day do you think a conflict that means nothing to the average Aussie that’s been finished for a few months will be forefront of peoples minds or do you think two years of a sh*t show that effected everyone’s everyday life will be at the front of their mind?

The pandemic related shitshow is finishing/finished. States dropping restrictions, travel resuming. It's obvious why the Coalition has waited until May for an election. The pandemic is mostly over and normal business can resume. A Ukraine conflict may be out of everyone's mind by then, but so will the pandemic.

Not saying anything is set in stone but there's a long way to go and a lot of space to move.
 
Just added one.

Tudge might have been a nothing story if it wasn't along with the other three.

Throw in Joyce and it's not like they've got a cleanskin amongst them to make them look better.
Oh, I dunno. Didn’t he cheat on his wife, claim marriage is sacred, and promote his mistress?

In another time, that was something of a story.

Also, how is he still a minister? Wasn’t that all but done a week or so ago?
 

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IF they go on to lose the election, i'll cite 2 major moments.

1 - The porter / Higgins double whammy
2 - the delta lockdown in Sydney
3 - "Oh clearly the voters thought it was time for change and absolutely nothing to do with us"
 
The pandemic related shitshow is finishing/finished. States dropping restrictions, travel resuming. It's obvious why the Coalition has waited until May for an election. The pandemic is mostly over and normal business can resume. A Ukraine conflict may be out of everyone's mind by then, but so will the pandemic.

Not saying anything is set in stone but there's a long way to go and a lot of space to move.
Nah Scumo is cooked.
 

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FMD if this conman gets back in I will fair dinkum lose my poop.
He’s not getting back in. Opposition parties haven’t even fired a shot and they’ve got enough to fill every piece of Tassie. He’ll cop it from every side come April. It’s going to be a blitzkrieg like we’ve never seen before. Nothing will save the two faced lying pig.
 
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