Analysis Season 2024 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

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QuarterTimeOffOn
1Callum Ah Chee, Kai Lohmann, James Tunstill, Cam Rayner, Darcy Wilmot
7mCam Rayner, Darcy Wilmot, Callum Ah Chee, Kai LohmannJarrod Berry, Josh Dunkley, Noah Answerth, Ryan Lester
9mRyan LesterDarcy Gardiner
10mJosh Dunkley, Noah AnswerthLachie Neale, Ryan Lester
12mJarrod BerryCharlie Cameron
13mDarcy GardinerJoe Daniher
17mLachie NealeDayne Zorko
18mJoe DaniherDarcy Fort
19mCharlie Cameron, Ryan LesterJaspa Fletcher, Conor McKenna
21mDayne ZorkoHugh McCluggage
23mConor McKennaDayne Zorko
24mDayne Zorko, Darcy FortLincoln McCarthy, Jack Payne
25mHugh McCluggage, Jack Payne, Jaspa FletcherBrandon Starcevich, Callum Ah Chee, Cam Rayner
2Lincoln McCarthy, Callum Ah Chee, Brandon Starcevich, Cam RaynerJarrod Berry, Eric Hipwood, Conor McKenna, Dayne Zorko
6mConor McKenna, Jarrod BerryJaspa Fletcher, Brandon Starcevich
7mEric Hipwood, Dayne ZorkoCam Rayner, Kai Lohmann
12mCam RaynerLachie Neale
15mBrandon Starcevich, Kai Lohmann, Lachie Neale, Jaspa FletcherNoah Answerth, Charlie Cameron, Hugh McCluggage, Darcy Fort
18mNoah AnswerthRyan Lester
19mCharlie Cameron, Darcy Fort, Ryan LesterDarcy Wilmot, Callum Ah Chee, Joe Daniher
23mJoe Daniher, Hugh McCluggageJosh Dunkley, Lincoln McCarthy
25mDarcy WilmotConor McKenna
26mCallum Ah CheeJarrod Berry
28mLincoln McCarthy, Josh DunkleyDarcy Gardiner, Cam Rayner
33mJarrod BerryCallum Ah Chee
3Darcy Gardiner, Cam RaynerLincoln McCarthy, Jaspa Fletcher
5mConor McKenna, Jaspa FletcherBrandon Starcevich, Darcy Wilmot
10mBrandon Starcevich, Lincoln McCarthyNoah Answerth, Darcy Fort
12mJames TunstillLachie Neale
13mDarcy Fort, Darcy WilmotKai Lohmann, Charlie Cameron
17mNoah Answerth, Lachie Neale, Kai Lohmann, Charlie CameronDayne Zorko, Jarrod Berry, Eric Hipwood, Josh Dunkley
27mDayne ZorkoHarris Andrews
4Harris Andrews, Jarrod Berry, Josh DunkleyDarcy Gardiner, James Tunstill, Ryan Lester
1mEric HipwoodDarcy Wilmot
6mRyan Lester, James TunstillJack Payne, Hugh McCluggage
7mDarcy Gardiner, Darcy WilmotJarrod Berry, Joe Daniher
9mJoe Daniher, Jack PayneNoah Answerth, Darcy Fort
10mNoah AnswerthConor McKenna
11mHugh McCluggageLachie Neale
14mJarrod BerryCharlie Cameron
15mConor McKenna, Lachie NealeNoah Answerth, Josh Dunkley
16mDarcy FortDayne Zorko
20mCharlie CameronJaspa Fletcher
21mNoah Answerth, Dayne ZorkoBrandon Starcevich, Lincoln McCarthy
26mJosh DunkleyCam Rayner
 
Last edited:
QuarterTimeOffOn
1Callum Ah Chee, Kai Lohmann, James Tunstill, Cam Rayner, Darcy Wilmot
7mCam Rayner, Darcy Wilmot, Callum Ah Chee, Kai LohmannJarrod Berry, Josh Dunkley, Noah Answerth, Ryan Lester
9mRyan LesterDarcy Gardiner
10mJosh Dunkley, Noah AnswerthLachie Neale, Ryan Lester
12mJarrod BerryCharlie Cameron
13mDarcy GardinerJoe Daniher
17mLachie NealeDayne Zorko
18mJoe DaniherDarcy Fort
19mCharlie Cameron, Ryan LesterJaspa Fletcher, Conor McKenna
21mDayne ZorkoHugh McCluggage
23mConor McKennaDayne Zorko
24mDayne Zorko, Darcy FortLincoln McCarthy, Jack Payne
25mHugh McCluggage, Jack Payne, Jaspa FletcherBrandon Starcevich, Callum Ah Chee, Cam Rayner
2Lincoln McCarthy, Callum Ah Chee, Brandon Starcevich, Cam RaynerJarrod Berry, Eric Hipwood, Conor McKenna, Dayne Zorko
6mConor McKenna, Jarrod BerryJaspa Fletcher, Brandon Starcevich
7mEric Hipwood, Dayne ZorkoCam Rayner, Kai Lohmann
12mCam RaynerLachie Neale
15mBrandon Starcevich, Kai Lohmann, Lachie Neale, Jaspa FletcherNoah Answerth, Charlie Cameron, Hugh McCluggage, Darcy Fort
18mNoah AnswerthRyan Lester
19mCharlie Cameron, Darcy Fort, Ryan LesterDarcy Wilmot, Callum Ah Chee, Joe Daniher
23mJoe Daniher, Hugh McCluggageJosh Dunkley, Lincoln McCarthy
25mDarcy WilmotConor McKenna
26mCallum Ah CheeJarrod Berry
28mLincoln McCarthy, Josh DunkleyDarcy Gardiner, Cam Rayner
33mJarrod BerryCallum Ah Chee
3Darcy Gardiner, Cam RaynerLincoln McCarthy, Jaspa Fletcher
5mConor McKenna, Jaspa FletcherBrandon Starcevich, Darcy Wilmot
10mBrandon Starcevich, Lincoln McCarthyNoah Answerth, Darcy Fort
12mJames TunstillLachie Neale
13mDarcy Fort, Darcy WilmotKai Lohmann, Charlie Cameron
17mNoah Answerth, Lachie Neale, Kai Lohmann, Charlie CameronDayne Zorko, Jarrod Berry, Eric Hipwood, Josh Dunkley
27mDayne ZorkoHarris Andrews
4Harris Andrews, Jarrod Berry, Josh DunkleyDarcy Gardiner, James Tunstill, Ryan Lester
1mEric HipwoodDarcy Wilmot
6mRyan Lester, James TunstillJack Payne, Hugh McCluggage
7mDarcy Gardiner, Darcy WilmotJarrod Berry, Joe Daniher
9mJoe Daniher, Jack PayneNoah Answerth, Darcy Fort
10mNoah AnswerthConor McKenna
11mHugh McCluggageLachie Neale
14mJarrod BerryCharlie Cameron
15mConor McKenna, Lachie NealeNoah Answerth, Josh Dunkley
16mDarcy FortDayne Zorko
20mCharlie CameronJaspa Fletcher
21mNoah Answerth, Dayne ZorkoBrandon Starcevich, Lincoln McCarthy
26mJosh DunkleyCam Rayner
Interesting. How did you get this data?
 

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Some more depressing stats about our goalkicking:

Equal 5th best quality of shot, worst conversion:




Three of our players in the bottom six, Charlie the worst for accuracy:



Oh dear. We have also generated significantly less shots than most of the top teams.
 
Oh dear. We have also generated significantly less shots than most of the top teams.

Yeah, but that's to be expected when you are 2-5. Less shots is a function of our broken ball movement and forward structure (and losing basically every groundball inside f50).

Missing this many shots means that the warts we have look even worse than they are.
 
Yeah, but that's to be expected when you are 2-5. Less shots is a function of our broken ball movement and forward structure (and losing basically every groundball inside f50).

Missing this many shots means that the warts we have look even worse than they are.

Sorry, yep I should have finished my thought, 100% agree.
 

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3-5 years ago it seemed like we had quite a large spread of goal kickers. Do the stats say that is still the case? Feels like it’s not.
I felt like this changed last year and reflected the greater focus from our midfield on team defence etc. Perhaps they weren't getting forward as much thus we started scoring a higher % of goals via our forwards.
 
3-5 years ago it seemed like we had quite a large spread of goal kickers. Do the stats say that is still the case? Feels like it’s not.
It's not, but predominantly because we're not kicking enough goals for there to be a large spread in recent games.
 
It's only a matter of time. I'm currently brainstorming a model which might allow someone (ie a coaching group) to objectively measure momentum in a game, informing a decision as to whether to put a spare man behind the ball, or play an extra at stoppages, whatever.

You might think about how many goals goals you've conceded (the last 2, 4 of the last 5), how many of the last 5-10 inside 50s, how many of the last 5-10 clearances, time in forward half in the last 10 minutes, un/contested marks in the last 10 minutes, whatever.

And this is very likely just the start. ChatGPT might be a little crude, but it's only a matter of time before the game goes further down that path. Collingwood's move to have Leppitsch separated from the rest of the coaching group tomorrow night might be the first step.
G'day Grasshopper17 - just saw your post from a month or so back and wanted to share that this was something that had crossed my mind over the past year or so.

I did create an Excel model for momentum based on the scientific formula Momentum (p) = mass (m) × velocity (v).

I substituted in the team's current score for Mass and their Points Per Minute (based on the last 5/10/whatever minutes of play) for Velocity. I used some of the data from the afl.com Match Timeline info (see example below) to help build this out.

From memory it was actually quite instructive in helping identify turning points in momentum in the match but didn't get much further than that.

Not sure if that will provide any inspiration but please feel free to cite me in your upcoming groundbreaking research which will no doubt be acquired by Champion Data!



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G'day Grasshopper17 - just saw your post from a month or so back and wanted to share that this was something that had crossed my mind over the past year or so.

I did create an Excel model for momentum based on the scientific formula Momentum (p) = mass (m) × velocity (v).

I substituted in the team's current score for Mass and their Points Per Minute (based on the last 5/10/whatever minutes of play) for Velocity. I used some of the data from the afl.com Match Timeline info (see example below) to help build this out.

From memory it was actually quite instructive in helping identify turning points in momentum in the match but didn't get much further than that.

Not sure if that will provide any inspiration but please feel free to cite me in your upcoming groundbreaking research which will no doubt be acquired by Champion Data!



View attachment 1975238
Nice. How do Adelaide generally fare when playing with unequal numbers? Is this something they initiate themselves as a general rule or do they prefer to play one on one?

We tend to go much better when it's 6-6-6 which is what prompted my initial thoughts.
 
Nice. How do Adelaide generally fare when playing with unequal numbers? Is this something they initiate themselves as a general rule or do they prefer to play one on one?

We tend to go much better when it's 6-6-6 which is what prompted my initial thoughts.
Our tried and tested method is to bring an extra up to the contest and to then dump kick from a dirty clearance to ensure that the opposition's best intercept marking defender has a career-best game. It's going well!
 
Meanwhile back at the ranch, Daniel "Rocks In My Head" Hoyne is STILL not jumping off our Lions!



Also, bonus drinking game this week: you have to take a shot every time Hoyney says "if you like". Prepare to be on the floor after 20 minutes.
 
Comprehensive, data driven and concerning:


Interesting that our pressure has been good

Not sure about front half intercepts being a great stat. But difference winning it back 80m out than 40m out

Clear as day our kicking inside 50 and goal kicking has been woeful.

Not a great look for Zorko who’s kicking up the field has looked good
 

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