Analysis Season 2024 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[Elixuh]

is there anywhere where you can see a players shots at goal, both where they took the kick and where the ball went?

 

[martinson]

Some misses are more crucial than others in the overall scheme of things. If you miss a soda and they take it down the other end for a goal that's an energy drain . If you manage to keep it in your forward half and get the next one ,not so damaging.

Missing ones right on the bell are likewise draining.

 

[martinson]

You could argue the 2 after the siren ones Collingwood got in the first half of the GF are what won them the game.

I know they deflated me.

 

[M Malice]

Breaking News: Lions are bad at goalkicking

The major issue that could cost Lions a shot at elusive flag - https://www.afl.com.au/news/1201984

In other news the sky is blue, water is wet and David King is a knob.

 

[Tom14]

is there anywhere where you can see a players shots at goal, both where they took the kick and where the ball went?

Stats insider used to do it I think but don't seem to anymore.

On Wheeloratings (the best stats site we have by a mile) you can look at a players score vs expected score, but nothing to break it out to their exact shots etc: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_xscores.html

 

[Tom14]

Was thinking the same and after the dressing down I received after being negative about the roar deal I decided to just make fun

Of all the stats he has access to the only one he uses is goals scored per shot percentage?

Re-reading the article its so bad that they went with goals scored per shot percantage because poor linc is lumped in with Bez and Dunks:

Of players to have at least 15 shots at goal, Josh Dunkley (27.3 per cent from 22 shots), Jarrod Berry (31.3 per cent from 16 shots) and injured Linc McCarthy (42.1 per cent from 19 shots) have the lowest hit rates.

Per expected score - linc had a positive ratio, scoring more than he would be expected to from where he was shooting from.

Dunks and Bez were predictably our worse two on expected score on a per shot basis, but by far the biggest problem is Charlie who is now 5.5 goals under his expected total. When you have 75 shots and have been that bad, its a big problem.

Also Clug being our second best shot (after Lachie) on an expected score basis is pretty funny.

 

[lionsrules]

You could argue the 2 after the siren ones Collingwood got in the first half of the GF are what won them the game.

I know they deflated me.

If McCarthy slotted his at the 3qtr time buzzer would’ve been the difference

 

[Elixuh]

Stats insider used to do it I think but don't seem to anymore.

On Wheeloratings (the best stats site we have by a mile) you can look at a players score vs expected score, but nothing to break it out to their exact shots etc: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_xscores.html


View attachment 2087484

it’d be cool to plot something like this but in the AFL context

 

[KissKiss]

Stats insider used to do it I think but don't seem to anymore.

On Wheeloratings (the best stats site we have by a mile) you can look at a players score vs expected score, but nothing to break it out to their exact shots etc: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_xscores.html


View attachment 2087484

I've been pretty critical on Rayner's goal kicking, but he is pretty much bang on the expected. Maybe I've been a bit too harsh (or is he like Joe in kicking the miracle and missing the easy to balance it out?)

 

[Nathan Barley]

I've been pretty critical on Rayner's goal kicking, but he is pretty much bang on the expected. Maybe I've been a bit too harsh (or is he like Joe in kicking the miracle and missing the easy to balance it out?)

His purple patch would've inflated those figures. Now that his form has dropped away it seems the goal kicking has followed

 

[Nunez]

We're about to go goal kicking ham on the competition. Accuracy will be ridiculously good.

Elixuh has been working closely with the lads. They are PRIMED.

 

[dlanod]

I've been pretty critical on Rayner's goal kicking, but he is pretty much bang on the expected. Maybe I've been a bit too harsh (or is he like Joe in kicking the miracle and missing the easy to balance it out?)

He's kicked a few miracles that I can think of but barring this last game he hasn't had too many real shockers since we started winning.

 

[Grasshopper17]

it’d be cool to plot something like this but in the AFL context

Sort of like this?

 

[Grasshopper17]

I've been pretty critical on Rayner's goal kicking, but he is pretty much bang on the expected. Maybe I've been a bit too harsh (or is he like Joe in kicking the miracle and missing the easy to balance it out?)

He's kicked disproportionately well from long range at stages this season.

 

[Elixuh]

Sort of like this?
View attachment 2087844

Yes, but also where the ball goes after kicked as a dot superimposed on the goals or out of bounds.

 

[Tom14]

I've been pretty critical on Rayner's goal kicking, but he is pretty much bang on the expected. Maybe I've been a bit too harsh (or is he like Joe in kicking the miracle and missing the easy to balance it out?)

Cam was 12.4 from set shots prior to the GWS game and shanked 2 easy ones in the following 2 weeks

 

[WheeloRatings]

Stats insider used to do it I think but don't seem to anymore.

On Wheeloratings (the best stats site we have by a mile) you can look at a players score vs expected score, but nothing to break it out to their exact shots etc: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_xscores.html


View attachment 2087484

Elixuh

If you select a player, you can view all the shots that player has taken (2021-) and you can hover to view details of a specific shot. You just can't see where the kick went, other than what the outcome of the shot was (goal, behind, no score).

Also, I'm glad you like the site!

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_xscores.html?id=1407312

 

[Elixuh]

Elixuh

If you select a player, you can view all the shots that player has taken (2021-) and you can hover to view details of a specific shot. You just can't see where the kick went, other than what the outcome of the shot was (goal, behind, no score).

Also, I'm glad you like the site!

https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_xscores.html?id=1407312

View attachment 2088197

Thank you good sir, it’s an excellent resource

 

[KissKiss]

Cam was 12.4 from set shots prior to the GWS game and shanked 2 easy ones in the following 2 weeks

Maybe Im too flavoured by his career averages. Looking over the last 4 or 5 years there are too many set shot misses from that 15-45m range within the middle of the ground.

Also interesting to see how much more comfortable he is shooting from the left side of the ground.

Looking at Charlies plot is also interesting. He also seems to be massively biased to the left side this year. But his set shots from there are "interesting". 14 set shots for 6.2. He's basically 50:50 to kick a goal or miss the lot

 

[Grasshopper17]

Also interesting to see how much more comfortable he is shooting from the left side of the ground.

Looking at Charlies plot is also interesting. He also seems to be massively biased to the left side this year.

Hold it right there!

You don't mean to say... Heaven forbid... Players are more accurate in matches when kicking for goal from the areas of the field they've spent time practicing from!?

I don't believe it. Colour me shocked!

 

[Grasshopper17]

Well, looks like the Grand Final is actually this Friday night. Everyone else is playing for 2nd.

(There was a delay in Andrew putting this out into the Twitterverse this week because for some reason the score source data for 3 matches from Round 23 was missing originally. This forms a key part of the analysis - scoring from kick ins, turnovers and stoppages)

 

[Hanley]

Interesting that Lions ended up first on points from turnover differential - Daniel Hoyne from Champion Data seems to rate that over any other single metric partly because it holds up in the fierce pace and contested nature of finals. There will be a heap of turnovers, and basically you need to capitalise on those better than the other team. That stat also already factors in our inaccuracy of course and we're still first. Based on these stats can't wait to see Dunkley walk to Bont for the first bounce of the GF...

 

[M Malice]

According Tim Watson; looks like we’re done

View attachment 2108533

It does not look like pretty reading when you highlight it like that, I wonder if there would be similar instances with other top 8 sides.

Most pundits writing us off on Saturday night, it would be so sweet to prove them wrong.

 

[Nathan Barley]

I still don't understand why it's worst to have had a lead and then lose then it is to not have a lead and then lose

We've won 15 games this year, the Giants have won 15 games this year

There's your formline

 

[Elixuh]

If Tim Watson could name more than 5 lions players I’d be surprised. Reading a teleprompter written by a producer is money for old jam for old Timothy.