semi final possibilities

[dr nick]

the ladder as it stands atm:

Australia 16
India 16
Kenya 10
NZ 8
Sri Lanka 7.5
Zimbabwe 3.5

games to be completed:
Aus v NZ
Aus v Ken (definite aussie victory)
Zim v Ken (zimbabwe to win)
Ind v NZ
SL v Zim (SL to win)


scenarios:
1) Aus/NZ and Ind/NZ.
Australia v Kenya and India v Sri Lanka semi finals

2)Aus/NZ and NZ/Ind
Australia v Sri Lanka and India v NZ semi finals

3) NZ/Aus and Ind/NZ
Australia v Sri Lanka and India v NZ semi finals (subject to NRR, but australia have it all over india in this dept.)

4) NZ/Aus and NZ/Ind
Australia v Sri Lanka and India v NZ semi finals


so if australia lose this, they are pretty much assured of meeting sri lanka in the semi final. it's either going to be Aus v NZ or Aus v Ind in the world cup final

 

[dr nick]

whoops... cricket board please mods

 

[Kenny_01]

But if Zim beat SL (which I think they will), we will play Zim in the semis. Kiwis will win either tonight or against India.

 

[ScouseCat]

I think it will be:

Australia (1) vs Zimbabwe (4)
India (2) vs New Zealand (3)

Sri Lanka look gone for all money unless they can turn things around against a very honest Zimbabwe side.

 

[EagleBlue]

Aus V Kenya
Ind V SL

 

[grayham]

Be interesting if NZ beat Ind, because they will have to play each other again almost straight away in the semis.

Should be a great game. NZ wiped the floor with them in NZ recently, but India have come into some real form lately.

 

[dr nick]

well without wanting to draw up endless outcomes, i just assumed SL would beat Zim. in reality, 2 of the remaining games are up for grabs. that one and Ind v NZ.

if zimbabwe win, kenya and possibly zimbabwe make it through to the final 4.

 

[Perty4]

Sri Lanka will thump Zimbabwe. i will be barracking for Zimbabwe, but i cant see them stopping Marvin and Sanath at the top of the order.

It should end up Aus v Kenya and india v Sri Lanka unless NZ can upset india.

 

[CharlieG]

I'm expecting an Australia vs. SL semi, and an Australia vs. New Zealand final.

And that could go either way.... but jeez... the one thing more important than Australia winning is that the Kiwis don't. That would be the worst possible outcome.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

current table

Australia 20
India 16
Kenya 10
NZ 8
Sri Lanka 7.5
Zimbabwe 3.5

games to be completed:
Aus v Ken - Aus
Zim v Ken - Zim
Ind v NZ - NZ
SL v Zim - Zim

final table

Aus 24
Ind 16
NZ 12
Zim 11.5
Ken 10
SL 7.5

Winner of SL v Zimbabwe game just about certain to proceed, so a crucial game. Other spot between NZ & Kenya based out the outcome of the Indian game. Kenya will need a washout to make it (which is still very possible, but they aren't in any D/N games).

 

[Kenny_01]

We will be either playing SL, Zim or Kenya in the semi so it's looking good for us.

SL could be a danger though on that slow track.

 

[CharlieG]

Kenya only need 1 of the 4 matches to go its way and they are through.

If Australia loses to Kenya... ... Kenya goes through with 14 points.

If Zimbabwe loses to Kenya (possible), Kenya goes through with 14 points.

If India beats NZ, the Kiwis are stranded on 8 points... can't catch Kenya. Only Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe can then catch Kenya, but only 1 can.

The last match will only prevent Kenya going through if Zimbabwe wins, and Zimbabwe also beats Kenya OR Sri Lanka wins and NZ also beats India.

The chances of 1 out of 4 going there way is pretty damn good imo. GO INDIA!

 

[bunsen burner]

Assuming Zimbabwe beat Kenya tonight and Australia beats Kenya on Sat:

If NZ lose to India, we play Kenya in the SF

If NZ beat India, we play the winner out of Zimbabwe and Sri Lanka

 

[Perty4]

Zims all out 130.
Kenya should beat them, finish 3rd in the semis.
Aus will play NZ or Sri lanka.

 

[NICK THE PIE MAN]

Is there anyway we could play NZ in the semis?
I would like to avoid them at all costs if possible.

 

[dr nick]

Originally posted by Perty4
Zims all out 130.
Kenya should beat them, finish 3rd in the semis.
Aus will play NZ or Sri lanka.

if australia lose to kenya, they will have the much easier passage into the world cup final. (theyll play kenya in the semis)

if they win, they have to beat either NZ or Sri Lanka

 

[rednugget]

Originally posted by nicko18
if australia lose to kenya, they will have the much easier passage into the world cup final. (theyll play kenya in the semis)

if they win, they have to beat either NZ or Sri Lanka

Australia will play either NZ or Sri Lanka at Port Elizabeth win or lose, India v Kenya at Durban is set in stone.

 

[NICK THE PIE MAN]

Damn.

Go India vs NZ!

Would much rather play SL than NZ

 

[dr nick]

Originally posted by rednugget
Australia will play either NZ or Sri Lanka at Port Elizabeth win or lose, India v Kenya at Durban is set in stone.

ok, i thought if Ind beat NZ they would be equal on pts with us. so what you are saying is that we are ahead of india due to the fact we beat them when we played??

in that case, i wonder if india will give their main players a rest. this game means nothing to them

 

[Catman]

Originally posted by nicko18
ok, i thought if Ind beat NZ they would be equal on pts with us. so what you are saying is that we are ahead of india due to the fact we beat them when we played??

I think it's based on the points carried over from the Pool games. We had 12 carried over, India 8, so we will be ahead of them on that criteria.

But I could be wrong.

 

[Kenny_01]

Yep, we will stay ahead of India because we beat them.

 

[red+black]

yes, head to head still applies, as it does for a semi-final match if it's tied or gets washed out.