Should FFC focus on Priority Draft Picks in 2008?

[Steven Jones]

The question must be asked.

I have just returned home from the game.

Another devastating loss.

I think we must wake up to several facts:

(1) We will not win a premiership with our current squad;
(2) Our squad has probably gone backwards over the last 2 years;
(3) Our "window" is well and truly shut.

Can any one on this board dispute the above three points?

That being the case, is there any point in another "narrow" miss on the top 8 this year. Realistically, we are probably looking at a finish somewhere between 7th and 12th. Nothing better - that is all our squad is probably capable of.

Should we go after some priority picks and start building for the future?

In my opinion, we should start blooding all of our young players for the rest of the season and see how they hold up. We have alot of young players on our list who have never had the chanc to prove themselves at AFL level. I say blood them and give them until he end of the season. Then at the end of the year have a clean out of old guys, and young guys that cant cut it.

I suspect this is the only way forward for the club. Nuitini would be a good pick up also.

 

[Memories]

Donno, maybe a bit early to judge? Give it a few more week geoff, but yeah, it aint looking good at the moment.

 

[Keys]

I don't think even if you tried you could be as bad as Melbourne.

Surely you can't be serious?

 

[estibador]

What a load of crap. Why do you bring this shit up every year? Even though you're probably just stirring I'll respond anyway.

Tanking isn't a way forward - but it is a good way to destroy any semblance of a strong footy club culture that Freo might be developing. Look at the malaise that has enveloped the Blues recently. Their players have been bred to lose - and that's what they do. They've lost any killer instinct to win and it shows when games are on the line. They've forgotten how to win.

It took us 9 years to rid ourselves of a losing culture (and we still aren't completely there) - and now you want to drag the club back into the dark ages? We had to scrap and fight every inch of the way to drag ourselves up from being perennial bottom feeders and I'll be f**ked if I ever want to go back.

And where's the evidence that priority picks equal success anyway? Hasn't worked for the Saints... or Hawthorn... and it sure as hell hasn't worked for Carlton. Geelong didn't need priority picks. Neither did Sydney... or Port... or Brisbane.

The eagles got lucky with a once in a generation player in Judd. But for every Judd there's twenty Polaks or Sampis.

Priority picks don't win premierships - smart recruiting, good coaching, and strong winning cultures do. We've got the resources to afford the first two - and we sure as hell aren't going to develop the third by tanking for draft picks and flushing our self respect down the toilet.

 

[leungtl]

No. We have to keep things in perspective...

We've lost to Collingwood away and then Hawthorn at home, not exactly easy games which you could tip us with total confidence. Both sides are very likely to finish in the Top 8 and be competetive in the finals, so why push the panic button now?
It's not like we've been completely outclassed or blown out or anything...

 

[dominguez]

 

[The Night Shift]

Isn't that known as tanking...

 

[Jetau]

I will try to respond to this post rationally.

Yes, I think we should definitely 'play the kids.' Not all of them, all the time, but there should be a focus on development. We've been in 'premiership mode' too long without getting within a bull's roar of a flag. So we must work on the list. Harvey showed a willingness this week to play the youngsters, and it must continue.

But we MUST NOT TANK. One of the 'problems' that we've always had is that, except for 2001, we've always won at least 8 games or something. We're always going to win at least half of our games at Subi. That's life.

Looking at the fixture, I see several teams that we will probably beat at home: Richmond, Western Bulldogs, Kangaroos, Essendon, Melbourne. That's five wins there, probably. Then there are tougher home games like the two derbies - let's say we win one of those. The harder home games are against Geelong, Port Adelaide, St Kilda and Collingwood. But we'll probably win two out of four, which adds up to eight wins out of twelve at home. It could be seven or even six in a truly bad year.

Of the away games, we would expect to beat Melbourne, Carlton and Richmond. The other away games look like potential lossses. So my brief analysis of the fixture reveals that in all likelihood, we will win somewhere between 8 and 11 games, even in a bad year. We will win eight games just by beating the teams that were in the bottom four last year. And let's face it - the Freo team we saw last night isn't bottom four material. From what I've seen so far, I wouldn't be surprised to see us creep up to twelve or thirteen wins out of the remaining twenty games. I think it's fair to say that eight wins is the worst case scenario and about thirteen would be best case.

Of course, this leaves us in mid table (again) and without the top draft picks (again).

But what do you suggest we do about it, GentlemanJeff? Deliberately lose? Because we won't be in the bottom four unless Harvey tells them to use Matt Carr as their shining example of how to play AFL footy. And there's no way Harvey will be telling them to lose.

And now to my last point. Finishing last doesn't guarantee success. We got Palmer at pick seven, didn't we? I know it's early days for him, but I wouldn't swap him for Masten, would you? So it's an imperfect science.

 

[hoss]

The question must be asked.

I have just returned home from the game.

Another devastating loss.

I think we must wake up to several facts:

(1) We will not win a premiership with our current squad;
(2) Our squad has probably gone backwards over the last 2 years;
(3) Our "window" is well and truly shut.

Can any one on this board dispute the above three points?

That being the case, is there any point in another "narrow" miss on the top 8 this year. Realistically, we are probably looking at a finish somewhere between 7th and 12th. Nothing better - that is all our squad is probably capable of.

Should we go after some priority picks and start building for the future?

In my opinion, we should start blooding all of our young players for the rest of the season and see how they hold up. We have alot of young players on our list who have never had the chanc to prove themselves at AFL level. I say blood them and give them until he end of the season. Then at the end of the year have a clean out of old guys, and young guys that cant cut it.

I suspect this is the only way forward for the club. Nuitini would be a good pick up also.

It's only that sort of cancerous, whiteanting attitude that will take our Club backwards. Collingwood and Hawthorn are good sides...I had them both in my Top 4. Yes it would have been nice to pick up the points in one or both of those games ... but we didn't. To suggest playing for priority picks after 2 rounds, both losses to two teams that will play in the finals is laughable. Surely you are just trolling.

 

[Borry]

If we are to focus on deliberately losing games (which is what we need to do to get priority picks ) than we might as well not compete in the competition.

 

[Lach72]

There's 2 minutes of my life I want back

 

[chook2734]

GJ, once again you've shown you have zero knowledge of AFL. If you want a priority pick, it'll be 2009 before you get it. That's 2 seasons of tanking, not one.

On a positive note, I guess we can look forward to less negative threads from you though - you can't complain about losses or poor form if you want them to tank for the rest of the season.

 

[E Shed]

There's 2 minutes of my life I want back

Indeed, although Esti's post was worth a read.

 

[Gaspode]

It's only that sort of cancerous, whiteanting attitude that will take our Club backwards. Collingwood and Hawthorn are good sides...I had them both in my Top 4. Yes it would have been nice to pick up the points in one or both of those games ... but we didn't. To suggest playing for priority picks after 2 rounds, both losses to two teams that will play in the finals is laughable. Surely you are just trolling.

I love it

Seriously, to consider tanking after what I would consider as top 4 prospects is well insane to start with. And really did we lose by much? We didn't play our best last night, yet we were bloody close at the end.

Positives that show we shouldn't even consider the prospects of tanking.

#1 - Carlton. Didn't they tank last year to get draft picks, can someone remind me what their record is this year? I don't they're at the top of the ladder with insane stats. And didn't they get Judd as well - apparently the best player since slice bread was invented?

#2 - Last week we played lack lustre - and yet we weren't thrashed - beaten but come on, how many people think Collingwood won - or did we lose?

#3 - Hawks are an exceptional team - and fast - yet our slow poke dinosaurs kept them honest, and when we played well, they had no reply. We lost by 15 - last year we would of rolled over and died being 30 down at the half time break, yet we came to with 3 points. When we get our game on, I hope all you tankers come out and say you were wrong.

I'm really starting to get sick of hearing these "die-hard" docker fans wanting to curl up and die. To me - Tanking is worse than losing. It means your players have totally lost the passion, and lost their pride, and anyone who tanks will never be looked at highly from my eyes and should be removed from our club.

 

[Freo Big Fella]

 

[Reveler]

tanking doesn't work. Trade/Delist the deadwood.

 

[BartBart]

What people don't realise is that any club doesn't want to be near the bottom of the table in 2-5 years time. This is because the new teams in NSW & QLD will be needing a stock of players to fill their teams and will likely get their choice of players before the draft actually starts. So a "No.1 pick" for finishing last (or a priority pick) will in reality be a No.10 pick. And I suspect that those 2 teams (assuming 1 doesn't get relocated from Melbourne) may even be allowed to choose some players that are a year younger than the draft age. It is best to be strong during this period and have a good list that doesn't need much tweaking.

 

[dockshark]

I know it's early days for him, but I wouldn't swap him for Masten, would you? So it's an imperfect science.

exactly, and it always has been, draft positions are are generated largely by four factors:

the players form in current competition (generally VFL, WAFL, or SANFL)
the players form in under 18 state championship comp
the draft camp,
and the individual requirements and gut feeling of the team making a selection.


Just because a player is taken higher on the draft doesn't mean that they will be better, and no matter what, there is no way of telling how someone is gonna perform at AFL level. Looking at this draft there was at least four midfielders taken in the early picks. Crotchin, Morton, Masten, Palmer, now who would be prepared to lay a bet on who is gonna be the best out of those four, i know i wouldn't. After the draft i was a little disapointed that wet toast had got Masten, but now after Masten getting in trouble already and Palmer looking the goods i couldn't be happier. Ask anyone from Adelaide how they feel about selecting Ken McGregor over Pavlich, that's easy with hindsight. The draft is like a lottery only you get to make educated guesses instead of just blind luck.

 

[newlander77]

The question must be asked.

I have just returned home from the game.

Another devastating loss.

Just so we're on the same page, you're referring to the Crows vs Eagles game in Adelaide right?

 

[Stronzo]

GJ is a troll.

 

[Freo Shark]

Agree Lach thats a wasted few mins I wont get back.

I didnt think I'd ever see this forum disgraced by such a post.

 

[estibador]

I didnt think I'd ever see this forum disgraced by such a post.

You didn't see GJ make the same post last year?

Maybe he's a Carlton supporter in disguise - he seems to have the same loser mentality and the same worship of high draft picks.

 

[Freo Shark]

No, thankfully I missed it.

 

[Frigate]

Your a class act GJ. You should go on holiday with Ken Judge, I am sure you two would make the best of buddies.

 

[EastcoastDocker]

i think we should give the next 3 weeks everything. if we have 1 win after 5 rounds then we should just play the kids. which is vastly different from tanking. playing the kids i still reckon that we would win more than 5 games anyway..

in my opinion early draft picks are overrated.

i like reading GJ posts! a warped view of the world is always entertaining.