Spring Racing

[Keystone agony]

Zipping

1. Purrific WIN (Boss on board, good weight, has runs under its name) - probably a race not to bet on
2. Hazard E/W(Again has Boss, really liked its last run was checked several times and i think the extra 200m will help. Lost to motorized and that horses form has been good)
3. Verdant Win(worried with D.Dunn on the back in a 2 miler aswell) Beat Garud last start which has good form lines
4. I struggled to split Grey Assignment E/W and Strike for stars with its weight off. Ended up backing GA each way with the better value
5. Mahisara or Raspberries WIN i cant split them. Mahisara loses the weight but Raspberries drops back a few levels in class and is the class horse. Its last run was very impressive in the G1 in the Myer Classic. Never got a shot at it in the group 2 Tristarc where it had to be ridden back in this race expect it to sit nicely forward. Mahisara also has Williams on board, i think im leaning Raspberries.
6. Rawnaq win Pretty hard to go past Mourayan one of my more favourite horses in good form ran a ripper in the MC and is back to i believe its ideal distance. Rawnaq just has alot less weight and i like its form.
7. Lunar Rise win Probably the toughest race to pick. I can see potentially 8 winners and maybe even more. Flying Skipper is at great odds for a place bet IMO winning its last. Hunger, Edgewood, Tatra, Proverb, Host of the Party for me could all feature.
8.
9.


Looks like a nice day of betting. Dont follow i picked horribly last week hopefully i can change my fortunes and im new to the game of picking a winner. This week instead of value i have more so gone for who i think will win or feature. Will have to get some advice on what to look for in form lines if i do poorly again - watched alot more races of the horses on bigpond this week.

 

[Sons_of_a_Gun]

Sticking my neck out on the line and saying Rawnaq cant win.

 

[Keystone agony]

Sticking my neck out on the line and saying Rawnaq cant win.

Whats your thinking/reasoning behind this?

 

[Sons_of_a_Gun]

Whats your thinking/reasoning behind this?

I think the 3 y.o stayers are average at best, with the exception of maybe 1 or 2 and i don't believe Rawnaq is one of them. I also think it was $100 to 1 in the Derby for a reason. I'm not saying it wasn't a good run because it was, but it was a clear career peak, and i am banking it cant back that up.

 

[Sons_of_a_Gun]

Plus i don't think his fast finish will be as effective in a slowly run race,
Mourayan - Possible leader, Probably Box Seat.
Precedence - Backmarker
Tanby - Backmarker
He's Hot to Trot - Handy
Garud - Handy
Umatic - Backmarker
Exceptionally - Handy
Dame Claire - Leader
Rawnaq - Backmarker

I see the speedmap like this

RAIL​

Rawnaq Precedence Mourayan Dame Claire​

Umatic HesHotToTrot Tanby Garud Exceptionally​

​

I think Dame Claire and Exceptionally will cross over and can see Rawnaq settling near last on the rail. I don't even think it will run a place, but very confident it cant win. I think Mourayan will win with Exceptionally, Garud and Dame Claire fighting out the placings.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Sandown

R2 - Meidung
R3 - Ibicenco
R4 - Star of Giselle
R6 - Mourayan
R7 - Lunar Rise
R8 - Mid Summer Music / Big Buddie
R9 - Spot on Maggie

 

[Tippaz]

Zipping Classic

Trifecta (2 combinations)
1. Mourayan
2. Tanby
3. Exceptionally

1. Mourayan
2. Exceptionally
3. Tanby

only a 9 horse race and Mourayan is a short-priced fav so i've decided to have a go at the trifecta
(i got the trifecta in this race last year)
$5 on 2 combos = $10 outlay

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Garud is the forgotten horse.

 

[Ilike2play]

Just as when u are drunk the cure is to keep drinking ...

Will attempt the quaddie again today!

Don't like the look of the first leg in the quaddie!

Race 7 will throw up some meat into the quaddie 15/1 +

Quaddie to follow.

 

[KardiniaPark]

SANDOWN

Race 2 - Angelic Light
Race 4 - Invest
Race 5 - Raspberries
Race 7 - Host Of The Party
Race 8 - Mid Summer Music
Race 9 - Bonaria


QUAD

(a) 1 / 1,2,4,8,13,14/4,5,8,9,11,14,15/1,6,8,12,13,14,15,18,19

(b) 1,2,3,5,7,8,9/1,2,4,8,13,14/4,5,8,9,11,14,15/6,12

(c) 1,3,7,9 / Field / 15 / 6,8,12,13,18,19

 

[Mitchemx]

Am i the only one that thinks Boss got caught napping there?

 

[Keystone agony]

bloody not on tv, devastated

 

[PieBeast]

Sandown

r3 - Ibicenco
r4 Star of Giselle
r5 - Morant
r6 - Rawnaq
r7 - Host Of The Party
r8 Unpretentious
r9 - Angel Of Mercy

 

[Big Bryza]

Sandown
Race 3- Ibicenco- Ran super in the Lexus, getting checked then storming home over the last 150m. G Boss on board and I think it'll relish the big straight at Sandown.

Race 4- Eclair Surprise- In super form, great win last start and will relish the step up in distance.

Race 5- Mister Milton- Always consistent but usually finishes in the 4th-6th bracket. Has run a couple of nice races in group company in the past. Purely going for value here, can see it running a big race.

Race 6- Mourayan- Such an honest horse, in top form. Will be interesting to see if it peaked in the Melbourne Cup. Hopefully he has enough petrol in the tank to win this.

Race 7- Host of the Party- Ran on very well at Flemington. If the speed is on I can see it being right there in the finish.

Race 8- Big Buddie- Has form around Honey Flower, beating it 2 starts back and was stiff at the Valley last start, where it should've beaten Sea Lord. At odds and is great value.

Race 9- Bonaria- Extremely consistent mare, ran a great race behind Mosheen last start. Has form at Sandown and represents great value in this race.

Quaddie (Sandown)

1,2,3,5,9
1,2,4,6,11,12
11,14,15
1,8,9,10,14

Quaddie (Rosehill)

3,7,8,11
1,4,5,6,8,11
2,4,6
4,5,6,13

 

[Keystone agony]

Flying Skipper paying 11-13 for a place in the 7th must be way over odds. Beat Host of the party even though it got the better run, probably suits the 1800-2000 more. 1600 might be too short but surely a good place chance.

Also starting to really like Host of the party aswell, last 2 runs have been superb.

 

[PieBeast]

Sandown quaddie

1,7,8,9/1,2,4,10,12,14/4,6,9,11,15/1,6,9,14 33%

 

[Papa Juggs]

Good tipping Big Bryza

Quaddie paid nice.

 

[The Passenger]

Just a quick suggestion, haven't really thought it through but wanted to throw it out there given there has been quite some controversy lately surrounding jockey/s betting, and i think this could be some sort of solution for any sport to follow.

It wouldn't get around a sportsmen using their wives, friends or relatives to gamble but it might help a bit.

Basically, set a betting exchange where jockeys and trainers can place their bets. They can bet against whichever bookies they want (or tab), but they can put whatever bets they want on through this exchange (obviously they're not going to bet against themselves through an agency run by Racing Vic or whoever) and that way they can be monitored. Obviously it would be available online for them and through the phone 24/7 so they'd never have any excuse not to bet through it. And if they're caught betting at all through any other agency directly, then the books get thrown out them, doesn't even matter what it is their betting on or who they're backing....

The exchange itself isn't run as a bookie so not for profit, in fact it would cost Racing Vic/NSW/Australia money to run and monitor, but I think it could go a long way to helping the image the sport currently has in the media.

Just a though.