Team Rating System, update after Finals, Week Three

[Hobbes]

Mark I - Results, Ladder and Predictions, Round 11.

North Melbourne +17 v Richmond
Hawthorn +15 v Melbourne
Carlton +36 v Brisbane
Geelong v GWS +4
Gold Coast v Sydney +49
Fremantle +18 v Essendon
Collingwood +1 v Port Adelaide
Western Bulldogs +5 v West Coast Eagles
Adelaide +27 v St Kilda

7/9. Good margin tipping for Bulldogs, Carlton and Sydney, lousy for Adelaide, North Melbourne, Fremantle and Port Adelaide.

A few ladder changes here

GWS +26.7
Adelaide +25.6 (+2)
West Coast +20.6
Sydney +20.2 (-2)
Geelong +19.8
North Melbourne +17.7 (+2)
Western Bulldogs +17.6 (-1)
Port Adelaide +14.7 (+1)
Hawthorn +11.2 (-2)
Melbourne -5.2 (+2)
Carlton -6.6 (+3)
Collingwood -7.1 (-2)
St Kilda -8.6 (-2)
Richmond -13.8 (-1)
Fremantle -18.7
Gold Coast -33.8
Brisbane -38.8
Essendon -41.3

The teams have now divided themselves into the haves (the top 9) and have nots (the bottom 9), with Port Adelaide joining the ranks of the haves. Although Port are unlikely to make the eight thanks to a tough draw, they are probably ready to pounce if any of the other fancied teams slips up.

North and Adelaide are looking like much stronger contenders after convincing wins, albeit against mediocre teams.

Essendon v Hawthorn +53
Port Adelaide +5 v Bulldogs
Brisbane v Fremantle +7
Geelong +2 v North Melbourne
West Coast +8 v Adelaide
St Kilda v Carlton +2
Richmond +26 v Gold Coast
GWS +7 v Sydney
Melbourne +2 v Collingwood

A lot of very tough matches to tip here - only the likely blowouts of Hawthorn v Essendon and Richmond v Gold Coast loom as exceptions. Certainly Port v Bulldogs, Geelong v North, West Coast v Adelaide and GWS v Sydney will be very informative about the makeup of the eight.

 

[Hobbes]

Mark II: Results, Ladder and Predictions, Round 11

North Melbourne +17 v Richmond
Hawthorn +18 v Melbourne
Carlton +34 v Brisbane
Geelong v GWS +3
Gold Coast v Sydney +50
Fremantle +18 v Essendon
Collingwood v Port Adelaide +1
Western Bulldogs +4 v West Coast Eagles
Adelaide +28 v St Kilda

8/9 this time, the Mark II marginally favouring Port over Collingwood.

GWS +26.1
Adelaide +24.5 (+3)
West Coast +19.64
Geelong +19.58
Sydney +19.4 (-3)
North Melbourne +17.4 (+2)
Western Bulldogs +16.1 (-1)
Port Adelaide +14.7 (+1)
Hawthorn +12.0 (-2)
Melbourne -5.2 (+1)
Collingwood -7.9 (-1)
Carlton -8.0 (+2)
St Kilda -10.4 (-1)
Richmond -13.7 (-1)
Fremantle -19.5
Gold Coast -35.1 (+1)
Brisbane -39.2 (+1)
Essendon -42.2 (-2)

Essendon v Hawthorn +54
Port Adelaide +5 v Bulldogs
Brisbane v Fremantle +7
Geelong +2 v North Melbourne
West Coast +8 v Adelaide
St Kilda v Carlton +2
Richmond +27 v Gold Coast
GWS +7 v Sydney
Melbourne +3 v Collingwood

Tips almost the same as Mark I

 

[Crankyhawk]

Both your margins very close for Hawks vs Melbourne as well.

 

[Hobbes]

Mark I - Results, Ladder and Tips for Round 12.

Essendon v Hawthorn +53
Port Adelaide +5 v Bulldogs
Brisbane v Fremantle +7
Geelong +2 v North Melbourne
West Coast +8 v Adelaide
St Kilda v Carlton +2
Richmond +26 v Gold Coast
GWS +7 v Sydney
Melbourne +2 v Collingwood

6/9 in a tough round. Could be worse. (Very pleased to be wrong about West Coast). Margins all over the place though - badly out for Fremantle, Geelong, GWS and Melbourne, but close for Richmond, Hawthorn and Port.

1. GWS +34.6
2. Adelaide +34.2
3. Geelong +22.5 (+2)
4. Western Bulldogs +18.5 (+2)
5. Hawthorn +15.7 (+4)
6. Sydney +14.1 (-2)
7. West Coast +13.7 (-4)
8. North Melbourne +12.4 (-3)
9. Port Adelaide +11.8 (-1)
10. Melbourne -0.6
11. St Kilda -2.7 (+2)
12. Fremantle -9.6 (+3)
13. Carlton -13.6 (-2)
14. Collingwood -15.9 (-2)
15. Richmond -16 (-1)
16. Gold Coast -33.5
17. Essendon -45.8 (+1)
18. Brisbane -49.8

Tons of movement at the top this week. The top two remain the same in placing, but with good wins against rated opposition, they've both cleared out quite a lot (at the moment, I'd say that both are premiership material). 3-9 have practically been shuffled and redealt - this week's winners (Geelong, Bulldogs and Hawthorn) have claimed places 3-5, with this week's losers (Sydney, WCE, North, Port) have dropped to 6-9. At the bottom end, Essendon moved up a place after being drubbed by Hawthorn, because Brisbane's result was much worse.

The split round doesn't mess up this system at all, although you can get oddities like matches being weighted differently for the two teams that played them (because it's one team's most recent match, and the other team's second-most recent).

North Melbourne v Hawthorn +3
Brisbane v West Coast +51
Fremantle v Port +8
Western Bulldogs v Geelong +4
Sydney +20 v Melbourne
Essendon v GWS +75

A lot at stake in North v Hawthorn and Bulldogs v Geelong - in both cases the winner will be much better placed to launch at the top four than the loser. Apart from that, Sydney really don't want to mess this one up, Port might fall to a resurgent Fremantle, but surely GWS or West Coast can't lose this one.

 

[Hobbes]

Mark II - Results, Ladder and Tips for Round 12.

Essendon v Hawthorn +54
Port Adelaide +5 v Bulldogs
Brisbane v Fremantle +7
Geelong +2 v North Melbourne
West Coast +8 v Adelaide
St Kilda v Carlton +2
Richmond +27 v Gold Coast
GWS +7 v Sydney
Melbourne +3 v Collingwood

Same 6/9 as the Mark I. I'll be retiring the Mark II soon, since with 13 matches played the two systems will converge.

1. GWS +33.9
2. Adelaide +33.2
3. Geelong +22.6 (+1)
4. Western Bulldogs +16.4 (+2)
5. Hawthorn +15.8 (+4)
6. Sydney +13.6 (-1)
7. West Coast +12.6 (-4)
8. North Melbourne +12.0 (-2)
9. Port Adelaide +11.3 (-1)
10. Melbourne -0.6
11. St Kilda -3.7 (+2)
12. Fremantle -10.1 (+3)
13. Carlton -14.3 (-1)
14. Richmond -16.4
15. Collingwood -16.7 (-4)
16. Gold Coast -33.9
17. Essendon -46.2 (+1)
18. Brisbane -50.0(-1)

North Melbourne v Hawthorn +4
Brisbane v West Coast +50
Fremantle v Port +8
Western Bulldogs v Geelong +6
Sydney +19 v Melbourne
Essendon v GWS +75

Tips are practically the same as the Mark I

 

[Hobbes]

With the ladders and tips converging, I'm only going to do the mark 2 from now on. At the moment they're almost the same. Next round they will be identical.

Mark II: Round 13

North Melbourne v Hawthorn +4
Brisbane v West Coast +50
Fremantle v Port +8
Western Bulldogs v Geelong +6
Sydney +19 v Melbourne
Essendon v GWS +75

Well, the usual 5/6, although the algorithm had picked up on Fremantle's resurgence of form it still couldn't bring itself to tip against Port. Hawthorn and West Coast followed the script, Geelong and Sydney impressed, and GWS disappointed with a measly win against lowly Essendon

1. Adelaide +33.2 (+1)
2. GWS +28.8 (-1)
3. Geelong +27.8
4. Sydney +18.0 (+2)
5. Hawthorn +17.8
6. West Coast +14.3 (+1)
7. North Melbourne +13.1 (+1)
8. Western Bulldogs +8.7 (-4)
9. Port Adelaide +6.3
10. St Kilda -2.9 (+1)
11. Fremantle -5.2 (+1)
12. Melbourne -6.9 (-2)
13. Carlton -13.7
14. Richmond -14.7
15. Collingwood -18.7
16. Gold Coast -33.6
17. Essendon -38.5
18. Brisbane -51.2

Tips for next week:

Adelaide +26 v North Melbourne
Collingwood v Fremantle +4
Richmond +43 v Brisbane
GWS +47 v Carlton
St Kilda v Geelong +31
Hawthorn +57 v Gold Coast

I've had a go at a probability-based ladder, making tips based on existing ratings and assigning each team a chance of winning equal to 50+ their winning margin (so >50 is a certain win).

Geelong 17 (17.18), 145.16
GWS 17 (16.96), 143.26
Adelaide 16 (16.34), 137.91
Hawthorn 16 (16.24), 120.59
Sydney 16 (15.78), 13.26
Bulldogs 15 (14.86), 120.10
North Melbourne 15 (14.62), 112.73
West Coast 13 (13.49), 122.9
Port Adelaide 11 (10.95), 107.03
St Kilda 11 (10.63), 95.59
Melbourne 10 (9.5), 97.39
Carlton 10 (9.67), 84.86
Richmond 8 (8.45), 84.69
Collingwood 7 (6.89), 81.64
Fremantle 6 (6.31), 87.08
Gold Coast 5 (5.45), 73.27
Essendon 3 (2.88), 59.78
Brisbane 2 (1.91), 60.22

 

[Hobbes]

Mark II - Results, Ladder and tips for round 14.

Adelaide +26 v North Melbourne
Collingwood v Fremantle +4
Richmond +43 v Brisbane
GWS +47 v Carlton
St Kilda v Geelong +31
Hawthorn +57 v Gold Coast

4/6 Well, it perfermed well for Adelaide, Richmond and GWS, passably for Hawthorn, and poorly for Collingwood and St Kilda (but nobody really tipped St Kilda - right?).

1. Adelaide 36.3
2. GWS 30.1
3. Geelong 23.9
4. Sydney 18.7
5. West Coast 15.6 (+1)
6. Hawthorn 13.2 (-1)
7. North Melbourne 11.6
8. Bulldogs 9.6
9. Port Adelaide 6.8
10. St Kilda 3.2
11. Melbourne -5.4 (+1)
12. Collingwood -10.7 (+3)
13. Fremantle -11.1 (-2)
14. Carlton -13.8 (-1)
15. Richmond -15.0 (-1)
16. Gold Coast -29.2
17. Essendon -39.1
18. Brisbane -52.2

Hawthorn actually dropped on the basis of a smaller than expected win against Gold Coast.

Tips for round 15

West Coast +64 v Essendon
Port Adelaide +28 v Richmond
Gold Coast v St Kilda +26
Sydney +14 v Western Bulldogs
Carlton v Collingwood +3
Melbourne v Adelaide +36

 

[Hobbes]

Round 15, Results, Ladder and Tips

West Coast +64 v Essendon
Port Adelaide +28 v Richmond
Gold Coast v St Kilda +26
Sydney +14 v Western Bulldogs
Carlton v Collingwood +3
Melbourne v Adelaide +36

4/6. Performed very well for WC, Port, Collingwood and Adelaide. (Could have been the same for Sydney, but the Bulldogs proved to be plucky).

1. Adelaide +34.9
2. GWS +29.7
3. Geelong +23.0
4. West Coast +16.4 (+1)
5. Sydney +16.2 (-1)
6. Hawthorn +14.3
7. Bulldogs +12.2 (+1)
8. North Melbourne +10.9 (-1)
9. Port Adelaide +9.3
10. Melbourne -3.2 (+1)
11. St Kilda -5.9 (-1)
12. Collingwood -8.8
13. Fremantle -11.4
14. Richmond -15.3 (+1)
15. Carlton -15.8 (-1)
16. Gold Coast -20.2
17. Essendon -40.2
18. Brisbane -51.6

Tips for Round 16

Port +1 v Hawthorn
Geelong +13 v Sydney
GWS +43 v Collingwood
Gold Coast +31 v Brisbane
Bulldogs +27 v Richmond
Melbourne +17 v Fremantle
Carlton v Adelaide +45
West Coast +15 v North Melbourne
Essendon v St Kilda +34

 

[Hobbes]

Round 16 - Results, Ladder and tips

Port +1 v Hawthorn
Geelong +13 v Sydney
GWS +43 v Collingwood
Gold Coast +31 v Brisbane (26)
Bulldogs +27 v Richmond (10)
Melbourne +17 v Fremantle (32)
Carlton v Adelaide +45 (60)
West Coast +15 v North Melbourne (32)
Essendon v St Kilda +34 (11)

Well, the first three matches were a bit of a tipster's nightmare. OK, the Hawthorn tip could have gone either way, but it would have taken a bold man to tip Sydney or a lunatic to tip Collingwood. Fair performance on margins in the other matches. 6/9

1. Adelaide +35.6
2. Sydney +21.9 (+3)
3. West Coast +18.8 (+1)
4. Hawthorn +18.5 (+2)
5. GWS +18.0 (-3)
6. Geelong +13.7 (-3)
7. Western Bulldogs +9.4
8. North Melbourne +8.4
9. Port Adelaide +7.9
10. Melbourne +2.1
11. Collingwood +1.3 (+1)
12. St Kilda -10.5 (-1)
13. Fremantle -11.1
14. Richmond -12.7
15. Carlton -18.2
16. Gold Coast -20.2
17. Essendon -38.2
18. Brisbane -49.8

This algorithm places roughly 5/6 of the weight in the last seven matches, so with Adelaide having won their last seven, mostly convincingly, their rating looks very strong. Plenty of movement in the 2-6 range - GWS's rating has taken a hit with the Collingwood loss, while Hawthorn, Sydney and West Coast are getting the job done for now.

Collingwood have improved a fair bit, but only one place as they join the cool kids with the small plus ratings. Gold Coast and Essendon are improving slowly. Brisbane are just dire.

Predictions for round 17

Sydney +8 v Hawthorn
Fremantle v Geelong +16
Richmond +26 v Essendon
North Melbourne +6 v Port Adelaide
Western Bulldogs +36 v Gold Coast
Adelaide +40 v Collingwood
Carlton v West Coast +28
St Kilda v Melbourne +13
Brisbane v GWS +59

 

[seysearles]

 

[Crankyhawk]

View attachment 265316

We haven't played any actual good teams in this run of 6 - on form ladder just Port; on real ladder just North (and they aren't doing well on form ladder). Will know more about where we are after Thursday.

 

[Hobbes]

We haven't played any actual good teams in this run of 6 - on form ladder just Port; on real ladder just North (and they aren't doing well on form ladder). Will know more about where we are after Thursday.

Yes, Hawthorn are being talked up a bit at 12-3, but they're still a bit unproven having played a string of mediocre opponents. Which is why they're rated as good, but not very good. In comparison, Adelaide are on a very hot streak. My ratings are intended to show how teams are really travelling without the illusions created by easy or tough draws. Even when North were 9-0, I only had them rated 7th because they were beating mostly weak opponents, and not beating them well.

 

[Hobbes]

Sydney +8 v Hawthorn
Fremantle v Geelong +16
Richmond +26 v Essendon
North Melbourne +6 v Port Adelaide
Western Bulldogs +36 v Gold Coast
Adelaide +40 v Collingwood
Carlton v West Coast +28
St Kilda v Melbourne +13
Brisbane v GWS +59

6/9. Some pretty good margin predictions for the ones it did get right.

1. Adelaide +33.9
2. Hawthorn +20.7 (+2)
3. GWS +19.1 (+2)
4. Sydney +18.4 (-2)
5. West Coast +16 (-2)
6. Geelong +14.1
7. Port Adelaide +14.0 (+2)
8. Western Bulldogs +11.0 (-1)
9. Collingwood +4.6 (+2)
10. North Melbourne +2.0 (-2)
11. St Kilda -4.0 (+1)
12. Melbourne -4.6 (-2)
13. Fremantle -10.2
14. Richmond -12.8
15. Carlton -14.7
16. Gold Coast -21.3
17. Essendon -35.7
18. Brisbane -51.0

The bottom six has settled, with all of these teams performing according to the form guide most weeks. Essendon is creeping up, no longer being slaughtered every week.

A bit of shuffling in the middle (Port, Bulldogs, slipping North and the interloper Collingwood) and near the top, where several teams are bunched. Adelaide still heavily out in lead, but the rating has slipped a little on the back of a slightly below-par win against Collingwood.

Collingwood +3 v North Melbourne
Sydney +38 v Carlton
Gold Coast +2 v Fremantle (The algorithm doesn't understand injuries - personally, I think that Freo will win this)
West Coast +30 v Melbourne
Western Bulldogs +15 v St Kilda
Geelong v Adelaide +14
Essendon +21 v Brisbane
Hawthorn +33 v Richmond
Port Adelaide +4 v GWS

 

[Crankyhawk]

Big move by Hawks from 1 game, what was the numeric gain?

 

[Hobbes]

Big move by Hawks from 1 game, what was the numeric gain?

20.7, from 18.5. Not a big move - there's a bit of a cluster from 2nd-7th.

Hawthorn have been creeping up, about 2 points per game, since round 11.

 

[Hobbes]

Collingwood +3 v North Melbourne
Sydney +38 v Carlton
Gold Coast +2 v Fremantle (The algorithm doesn't understand injuries - personally, I think that Freo will win this)
West Coast +30 v Melbourne
Western Bulldogs +15 v St Kilda
Geelong v Adelaide +14
Essendon +21 v Brisbane
Hawthorn +33 v Richmond
Port Adelaide +4 v GWS

A bit of a death round for tipsters - it would be worse if Sydney and West Coast hadn't fallen over the line. I think 4/9 makes this the worst tipping week yet.

1. Adelaide +28.3
2. Hawthorn +24.0
3. GWS +22.1
4. Geelong +19.9 (+2)
5. Sydney +16.0 (-1)
6. West Coast +13.0 (-1)
7. Port Adelaide +10.0
8. Western Bulldogs +6.20
9. North Melbourne +6.17
10. St Kilda 0.0
11. Collingwood -0.9
12. Melbourne -3.1
13. Carlton -11.4
14. Fremantle -12.7
15. Gold Coast -16.4
16. Richmond -17.1
17. Brisbane -42.4 (+1)
18. Essendon -43.5 (-1)

Adelaide slip, but not far enough to drop out of first place. Hawthorn, GWS and Geelong rise, Sydney, West Coast and the Bulldogs fall back.

St Kilda is the closest thing the season has seen to my hypothetical average team.

Geelong +14 v Western Bulldogs
GWS +44 v Richmond
Hawthorn +35 v Carlton
Collingwood v West Coast +5
Brisbane v Port Adelaide +42
North Melbourne +6 v St Kilda
Melbourne +19 v Gold Coast
Fremantle v Sydney +17
Adelaide +77 v Essendon

 

[Hobbes]

Geelong +14 v Western Bulldogs
GWS+44 v Richmond
Hawthorn +35 v Carlton
Collingwood v West Coast +5
Brisbane v Port Adelaide +42
North Melbourne +6 v St Kilda
Melbourne +19 v Gold Coast
Fremantle v Sydney +17
Adelaide +77 v Essendon

8/9. So-so performance on margins.

1. Adelaide 27.0
2. GWS 26.3 (+1)
3. Sydney 24.0 (+2)
4. Hawthorn 23.6 (-2)
5. Geelong 20.1 (-1)
6. Port Adelaide +14.2 (+1)
7. West Coast +9.6 (-1)
8. North Melbourne +8.8 (+1)
9. Western Bulldogs +4.5 (-1)
10. Collingwood +3.3 (+1)
11. St Kilda -2.8 (-1)
12. Melbourne -6.5
13. Carlton -7.4
14. Gold Coast -16 (+1)
15. Richmond -20.8 (+1)
16. Fremantle -21.0 (-2)
17. Essendon -43.4 (+1)
18. Brisbane -47 (-1)

Adelaide have fallen back to the pack, and Hawthorn's mediocre win has them falling below the impressive Sydney and GWS. Richmond rise a place after getting slaughtered because Fremantle were worse.

Richmond v Collingwood +24
Sydney +19 v Port Adelaide
Melbourne v Hawthorn +30
Gold Coast v GWS +33
Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne +4
Adelaide +84 v Brisbane
Carlton v St Kilda +5
Geelong +64 v Essendon
Fremantle v West Coast +30

 

[Hobbes]

Richmond v Collingwood +24
Sydney +19 v Port Adelaide
Melbourne v Hawthorn +30
Gold Coast v GWS +33
Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne +4
Adelaide +84 v Brisbane
Carlton v St Kilda +5
Geelong +64 v Essendon
Fremantle v West Coast +30

6/9. Collingwood keep their position as the least reliable team.

1. Sydney 28.9 (+2)
2. Adelaide 28.2 (-1)
3. GWS 21.7 (-1)
4. Geelong 20.5 (+1)
5. Hawthorn 16.0 (-1)
6. West Coast 11.0 (+1)
7. Western Bulldogs 9.0 (+2)
8. Port Adelaide 7.15 (-2)
9. St Kilda 7.09 (+2)
10. North Melbourne 6.3 (-1)
11. Melbourne 3.3 (+1)
12. Collingwood -3.1 (-1)
13. Gold Coast -9.8 (+1)
14. Carlton -16.0 (-1)
15. Richmond -17.7
16. Fremantle -22.8
17. Essendon -42.5
18. Brisbane -49.5

A stellar performance from Sydney moves them above Adelaide despite the mauling of Brisbane.

Western Bulldogs +12 v Collingwood
Brisbane v Carlton +37
Hawthorn +10 v North Melbourne
GWS +23 v West Coast
St Kilda v Sydney +17
Port Adelaide +10 v Melbourne
Essendon v Gold Coast +27
Richmond v Geelong +38
Fremantle v Adelaide +38

High stakes at the top end of the table, with danger games for the Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Sydney.

 

[Bokonon]

Richmond v Collingwood +24
Sydney +19 v Port Adelaide
Melbourne v Hawthorn +30
Gold Coast v GWS +33
Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne +4
Adelaide +84 v Brisbane
Carlton v St Kilda +5
Geelong +64 v Essendon
Fremantle v West Coast +30

6/9. Collingwood keep their position as the least reliable team.

1. Sydney 28.9 (+2)
2. Adelaide 28.2 (-1)
3. GWS 21.7 (-1)
4. Geelong 20.5 (+1)
5. Hawthorn 16.0 (-1)
6. West Coast 11.0 (+1)
7. Western Bulldogs 9.0 (+2)
8. Port Adelaide 7.15 (-2)
9. St Kilda 7.09 (+2)
10. North Melbourne 6.3 (-1)
11. Melbourne 3.3 (+1)
12. Collingwood -3.1 (-1)
13. Gold Coast -9.8 (+1)
14. Carlton -16.0 (-1)
15. Richmond -17.7
16. Fremantle -22.8
17. Essendon -42.5
18. Brisbane -49.5

A stellar performance from Sydney moves them above Adelaide despite the mauling of Brisbane.

Western Bulldogs +12 v Collingwood
Brisbane v Carlton +37
Hawthorn +10 v North Melbourne
GWS +23 v West Coast
St Kilda v Sydney +17
Port Adelaide +10 v Melbourne
Essendon v Gold Coast +27
Richmond v Geelong +38
Fremantle v Adelaide +38

High stakes at the top end of the table, with danger games for the Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Sydney.

Phewwwh,
I was afraid it was a danger game for us. I can sleep easy all week now. Thank you

 

[Hobbes]

Western Bulldogs +12 v Collingwood
Brisbane v Carlton +37
Hawthorn +10 v North Melbourne
GWS +23 v West Coast
St Kilda v Sydney +17
Port Adelaide +10 v Melbourne
Essendon v Gold Coast +27
Richmond v Geelong +38
Fremantle v Adelaide +38

A tough week with a few upsets. 5/9, and could have been worse if Geelong and the Bulldogs hadn't fallen over the line.

1. Sydney 33.5
2. Adelaide 32.2
3. Hawthorn 20.9 (+2)
4. GWS 17.3 (-1)
5. Geelong 16 (-1)
6. West Coast 14.8
7. Melbourne 11.5 (+4)
8. Western Bulldogs 5.2 (-1)
9. Port Adelaide 1.6 (-1)
10. North Melbourne 1.1
11. St Kilda 0.2 (-2)
12. Collingwood -2.5
13. Gold Coast -13.3
14. Richmond -13.7 (+1)
15. Carlton -20.7 (-1)
16. Fremantle -25.4
17. Essendon -37
18. Brisbane -43.9

Sydney and Adelaide are clearing out at the top end as the two form teams of the competition. Melbourne are looking good enough to play finals, if they can make it.

West Coast +3 v Hawthorn
North Melbourne v Sydney +27
Richmond v St Kilda +14
GWS +55 v Fremantle
Collingwood +17 v Gold Coast
Port Adelaide v Adelaide +31
Carlton v Melbourne +32
Brisbane v Geelong +54
Essendon v Western Bulldogs +42

WC v Hawthorn is the only match which really rates to be close, although Richmond could pull off an upset against St Kilda or Collingwood's notorious inconsistency could cause them to drop this match. A few blowouts are likely - GWS, Geelong, Bulldogs and perhaps Adelaide and Melbourne.

 

[Hobbes]

West Coast +3 v Hawthorn
North Melbourne v Sydney +27
Richmond v St Kilda +14
GWS +55 v Fremantle
Collingwood +17 v Gold Coast
Port Adelaide v Adelaide +31
Carlton v Melbourne +32
Brisbane v Geelong +54
Essendon v Western Bulldogs +42

8/9 and decent performance on several margins. (That said, I picked 8 favourites, 9 if you count West Coast).

1. Sydney 31.9
2. Adelaide 30.4
3. GWS 20.0 (+1)
4. West Coast 17.8 (+2)
5. Hawthorn 17.6 (-2)
6. Geelong 16.6 (-1)
7. Bulldogs 4.8 (+1)
8. Melbourne 4.4 (-1)
9. Collingwood 4.0 (+3)
10. North Melbourne 3.9
11. Port Adelaide +2.0 (-2)
12. St Kilda 0.3 (-1)
13. Richmond -12.3 (+1)
14. Carlton -13.4 (+1)
15. Gold Coast -20.4 (-2)
16. Fremantle -29.0
17. Essendon -36.4
18. Brisbane -42.7

Sydney and Adelaide dip a little at the top with below-par win. West Coast and GWS rising at Hawthorn's expense. There's a cluster of teams worthy of a place in the bottom end of the finals, although the eight has been essentially locked since round six.

Adelaide +26 v West Coast
Geelong +12 v Melbourne
Essendon v Carlton +23
Sydney +49 v Richmond
Gold Coast v Port Adelaide +12
North Melbourne v GWS +11
St Kilda +49 v Brisbane
Hawthorn +14 v Collingwood
Fremantle v Western Bulldogs +25

 

[Hobbes]

Adelaide +26 v West Coast
Geelong +12 v Melbourne
Essendon v Carlton +23
Sydney +49 v Richmond
Gold Coast v Port Adelaide +12
North Melbourne v GWS +11
St Kilda +49 v Brisbane
Hawthorn +14 v Collingwood
Fremantle v Western Bulldogs +25

6/9, missing the obvious West Coast, Essendon and Fremantle.

1. Sydney +36.4
2. Geelong +26.9 (+4)
3. GWS +25.7
4. West Coast +25.5
5. Adelaide +23.8 (-3)
6. Hawthorn +14.6 (-1)
7. Collingwood +3.5 (+2)
8. Port Adelaide +1.0 (+3)
9. Western Bulldogs +0.3 (-2)
10. North Melbourne -0.48
11. St Kilda -0.54 (+1)
12. Melbourne -6.1 (-4)
13. Richmond -15.5
14. Carlton -21.1
15. Fremantle -21.6 (+1)
16. Gold Coast -21.8 (-1)
17. Essendon -29.5
18. Brisbane -43.0

A bit of movement this week - Adelaide, while still maintaining a fine rating, fall three places, while Geelong rise four with their ritual massacre of Melbourne. West Coast have risen heavily but not gained a place, thanks to the rise of Geelong. Sydney surge to probably the biggest rating any team has had this year.

West Coast +34 v Western Bulldogs
Geelong +12 v Hawthorn
Sydney +11 v GWS
Adelaide +30 v North Melbourne

No upsets tipped for this week, but the second week of finals could be interesting - Adelaide are a strong team and West Coast are having a hot streak - either or both might take a place in the prelims. I doubt there have ever been such strong contenders from outside the top four. (On form, the Bulldogs and Kangaroos will just be making up the numbers).

 

[The Swans Blog]

Would be nice to see Hawthorn get pantsed as well as GWS

 

[Hobbes]

Would be nice to see Hawthorn get pantsed as well as GWS

I'm predicting a straight sets exit for Hawthorn.

 

[Hobbes]

West Coast +34 v Western Bulldogs
Geelong +12 v Hawthorn
Sydney +11 v GWS
Adelaide +30 v North Melbourne

Well, 2/4 after two favourites lost.

(Note that teams which don't play can still see their ratings shift after older results are re-evaluated)

1. GWS 29.6 (+2)
2. Sydney 28.7 (-1)
3. Geelong 26.0 (-1)
4. Adelaide 24 (+1)
5. West Coast 13.9 (-1)
6. Hawthorn 11.5
7. Western Bulldogs 10.2 (+2)
8. Collingwood 2.5 (-1)
9. Port Adelaide -0.4 (-1)
10. St Kilda -2.2 (+1)
11. North Melbourne -6.1 (-1)
12. Melbourne -8.5
13. Richmond -16.6
14. Gold Coast -21.7 (+2)
15. Fremantle -21.8
16. Carlton -23.4 (-2)
17. Essendon -29.2
18. Brisbane -44.1

Hawthorn +1 v Western Bulldogs
Sydney +14 v Adelaide