The 5+ goal second quarter lead, followed by the capitulation. The Neil Craig Special.

[Slippery Pete]

To be fair that is how we've played this season. Just about every game including the nab.

We have alot of the play and get out to an early lead. It looks easy. We are very inaccurate, and then the goals dry up a bit.

But the key is how many petrol tickets you spend doing it, my friend.......

You mention the word 'easy' - It was rarely easy for the players under Craig. Even when we were dominating halves like that Collingwood final in 09, you knew we were burning up a lot of fuel.

 

[afc1991]

But the key is how many petrol tickets you spend doing it, my friend.......

Whos to say we're not burning it, we've only rolled bottom 4 type teams.

Until we can do it versus good sides, jury is out.

 

[Elite Crow]

I think the point AFGM is trying to make is that Craig received a lot of criticism for doing certain things - many of which remain completely unchanged under Sando. Sando escapes criticism for doing them because he's new, whereas Craig (who had been around for longer) was openly castigated. When viewed from a certain angle, there's a high level of hypocrisy at play.

That said, AFGM could definitely do with some lessons in tact & etiquette - and yes I am opening myself to pot/kettle/black type comments here.

Craig received criticism not for one thing but for a number of issues which led to his demise, plus after a lengthy period of time he had no success. Sando has changed a lot, especially how we are approaching our football and playing the game. Sure there are some things that have stayed the same, but so far it's been pretty positive. It's only fair he be given some latitude and there nothing hypocritical about it.

But in case we need a rehash of what's changed, here's my observations:

Physicality
Tackling
Improvement in contested possessions
Improvement in clearances
Danger playing midfield
Walker not playing for Norwood
Hendo not stinking it up in the forward line
Mental toughness to come back when challenged
Happy playing group
Change in drafting policy

We still have some issues purely because our side is developing and has much ground to make given the squad Craig built.

If FIGJAM and you think we are being hypocritical for not hanging Sando then both of you don't understand what the issues were and expect us as supporters to be a bunch of w***ers and crucify a new coach when he appears to be doing a good job.

 

[Freddy Bassett]

Craig received criticism not for one thing but for a number of issues which led to his demise, plus after a lengthy period of time he had no success. Sando has changed a lot, especially how we are approaching our football and playing the game. Sure there are some things that have stayed the same, but so far it's been pretty positive. It's only fair he be given some latitude and there nothing hypocritical about it.

But in case we need a rehash of what's changed, here's my observations:

Physicality
Tackling
Improvement in contested possessions
Improvement in clearances
Danger playing midfield
Walker not playing for Norwood
Hendo not stinking it up in the forward line
Mental toughness to come back when challenged
Happy playing group
Change in drafting policy

We still have some issues purely because our side is developing and has much ground to make given the squad Craig built.

If FIGJAM and you think we are being hypocritical for not hanging Sando then both of you don't understand what the issues were and expect us as supporters to be a bunch of w***ers and crucify a new coach when he appears to be doing a good job.

Better early run with injuries.
Soft early draw.

The next 5 weeks will tell where we are truly at. We know bugger all yet....
And the so called "Change in drafting policy" is 100% crap according to Rendell. To think that Sando rocked up and told him who to draft after being in the gig for less than a month is nonsense

 

[Elite Crow]

We also faced soft opposition in Port, Melbourne and Brisbane last year.

So the shift to bigger body midfielders had nothing to do with Sando? To think that Sando being the new coach had no say in the type of player he wanted is even more nonsense.

 

[Allefgib]

Gah - so I most of this typed up before and someone mashed keyboard keys and the tab dissappeared. Anyway.. pete's comments on petrol tickets triggered me to do some quick analysis.

Some stat's and then some thoughts below. Stats from 2012 back through 2009 to include Craigy's last season of hope before the bleak years.

2012
i50’s per game - 57.6
Disposals per game - 359.8
Goals per game - 14.2
Behinds per game - 13.8
Disp. per scoring shot - 12.9
%SS from i50’s - 49%
Accuracy - 51%

2011
i50’s per game - 49.3
Disposals per game - 360.6
Goals per game - 11.5
Behinds per game - 8.6
Disp. per scoring shot - 17.9
%SS from i50’s - 41%
Accuracy - 57%

2010
i50’s per game - 49.9
Disposals per game - 369.6
Goals per game - 11.4
Behinds per game - 9.4
Disp. per scoring shot - 17.8
%SS from i50’s - 42%
Accuracy - 55%
2009
i50’s per game - 51.4
Disposals per game - 397.1
Goals per game - 14.3
Behinds per game - 9.6
Disp. per scoring shot - 16.6
%SS from i50’s - 47%
Accuracy - 60%

Some observations:
- For least disposals we are having the most i50’s under Sando compared to Craigy’s game plan for 3 years.
- In particular our disposals per scoring shot is 25% lower on average under Sando compared to Craigy.
- Our ability to convert i50’s for a shot on goal is also the highest under Sando’s game plan compared to last 3 years of Craigy (2009 to be fair not far behind). 13% higher under Sando than under the last 3 years on average under Craigy.
- 2012 however, has the lowest accuracy rate. A lot of this has been set shot misses, or easy run on goal shots. It’s not like we’re missing a lot from the pockets or taking an inordinate amount of snaps under pressure (observation only – there may actually be more to this.. definitely needs improving)

The big but is obviously the fact we’ve only played one legitimate ‘top team’ so far. I’ll cut this again in 5 weeks if someone reminds me.

 

[Freddy Bassett]

We also faced soft opposition in Port, Melbourne and Brisbane last year.

So the shift to bigger body midfielders had nothing to do with Sando? To think that Sando being the new coach had no say in the type of player he wanted is even more nonsense.

I asked Rendell that very question. I basically implied that we went from recruiting atheletic altar boys to football players with some being well known nobs. He was highly offended. He asked me who were the players we recruited who were nobs. I replied Lynch and Lewis Johnston are well known for being ordinary blokes. He 100% disagreed. He then went through every pick he ever had and aggressively asked whether they were altar boys or hard at the footy... And one thing about Rendell, he doesnt speak crap, he speaks the truth...
He worked closely, obviously, with Noble... But said his draft order did not change one spot after briefing Sando... I do believe him ....

He also said he goes in with a list and marks players off one by one until his pick comes up.... Hence why he is so bloody quick with his selections......

But this is the part I do not believe.... When I asked him if he was talking crap the years he said he picked up 8 players out of his 20 most wanted, he swore black and blue it was true.... I asked if his 20 most wanted included the top 10, who were out of his reach and he swore they were included...

 

[srv23]

I asked Rendell that very question. I basically implied that we went from recruiting atheletic altar boys to football players with some being well known nobs. He was highly offended. He asked me who were the players we recruited who were nobs. I replied Lynch and Lewis Johnston are well known for being ordinary blokes. He 100% disagreed. He then went through every pick he ever had and aggressively asked whether they were altar boys or hard at the footy... And one thing about Rendell, he doesnt speak crap, he speaks the truth...
He worked closely, obviously, with Noble... But said his draft order did not change one spot after briefing Sando... I do believe him ....

He also said he goes in with a list and marks players off one by one until his pick comes up.... Hence why he is so bloody quick with his selections......

But this is the part I do not believe.... When I asked him if he was talking crap the years he said he picked up 8 players out of his 20 most wanted, he swore black and blue it was true.... I asked if his 20 most wanted included the top 10, who were out of his reach and he swore they were included...

I thought he said in an interview about the draft last year that Craig wanted him to do the list in advance and just go down the list one by one wheras Sando wanted to be a bit more involved in the discussion of each pick, think about needa etc etc. I could be wrong though.

 

[Allefgib]

I recall that also srv23.
One thing we've all seen about Mattie from the bs that happened is that he vehemently defends his position to the point the actual reality is a trifle blurred.
(now i'm talking details here, not overall intent)

 

[Allefgib]

And for those concerned about the stats I posted being for a 'soft start to 2012' here are the same stats cut for the sides that finished in the same spots from the bottom of the ladder as the teams we played last year.

i.e. we've played bottom, 2nd bottom, 4th from bottom, 6th from bottom and 8th from bottom so far this year. I took the sides that finished in those spots in 2011 and the games we played against them in 2011. Only problem is we were in one of those spots.. so i went the next spot higher. I can't be arsed figuring out where each time was at the time we played them sorry....

2012 again:
i50’s per game - 57.6
Disposals per game - 359.8
Goals per game - 14.2
Behinds per game - 13.8
Disp. per scoring shot - 12.9
%SS from i50’s - 49%
Accuracy - 51%

vs 2011 same ladderspot finishers:
i50’s per game - 49.5
Disposals per game - 375.3
Goals per game - 13
Behinds per game - 8
Disp. per scoring shot - 17.9
%SS from i50’s - 42%
Accuracy - 62%

So, we are still getting more i50's for less disposals this year, converting more of them into scoring shots (and spraying them!) against an equivalent group of teams from last year.

If we can address the accuracy some of the strategic changes to the game plan seem to be paying off.

Of course all this just looks at what we are doing.. not what our opponents are doing to us!

 

[Freddy Bassett]

I thought he said in an interview about the draft last year that Craig wanted him to do the list in advance and just go down the list one by one wheras Sando wanted to be a bit more involved in the discussion of each pick, think about needa etc etc. I could be wrong though.

Reckons the only time at Adelaide a head coach has intervened on a needs basis was when we picked up Aaron Kite with our last pick... We went all smalls up til then, Rendell wanted Sloane.... Luckily we got him the year after at 43 by memory

 

[Slippery Pete]

Allergic - that's beautiful mate.

 

[Wood_Duck]

And for those concerned about the stats I posted being for a 'soft start to 2012' here are the same stats cut for the sides that finished in the same spots from the bottom of the ladder as the teams we played last year.

i.e. we've played bottom, 2nd bottom, 4th from bottom, 6th from bottom and 8th from bottom so far this year. I took the sides that finished in those spots in 2011 and the games we played against them in 2011. Only problem is we were in one of those spots.. so i went the next spot higher. I can't be arsed figuring out where each time was at the time we played them sorry....

2012 again:
i50’s per game - 57.6
Disposals per game - 359.8
Goals per game - 14.2
Behinds per game - 13.8
Disp. per scoring shot - 12.9
%SS from i50’s - 49%
Accuracy - 51%

vs 2011 same ladderspot finishers:
i50’s per game - 49.5
Disposals per game - 375.3
Goals per game - 13
Behinds per game - 8
Disp. per scoring shot - 17.9
%SS from i50’s - 42%
Accuracy - 62%

So, we are still getting more i50's for less disposals this year, converting more of them into scoring shots (and spraying them!) against an equivalent group of teams from last year.

If we can address the accuracy some of the strategic changes to the game plan seem to be paying off.

Of course all this just looks at what we are doing.. not what our opponents are doing to us!

Could you please use graphs in future, its so much easier to read that way.

 

[Allefgib]

You offering to host the pics and/or go through the hassle?

ps i hear ya... can't be arsed yet. 'may' get there.

 

[Wood_Duck]

You offering to host the pics and/or go through the hassle?

ps i hear ya... can't be arsed yet. 'may' get there.

as if.

 

[Slippery Pete]

The disposals per scoring shot and the percentage of scoring shots per inside 50 are telling.

It's a big difference, and it constitutes a huge shift in mentality.

Not only that, I get the impression Sanderson still thinks it's too high, judging by the way he has criticised our players' penchant to over possess the ball.

Old habits die hard....

 

[Elite Crow]

I asked Rendell that very question. I basically implied that we went from recruiting atheletic altar boys to football players with some being well known nobs. He was highly offended. He asked me who were the players we recruited who were nobs. I replied Lynch and Lewis Johnston are well known for being ordinary blokes. He 100% disagreed. He then went through every pick he ever had and aggressively asked whether they were altar boys or hard at the footy... And one thing about Rendell, he doesnt speak crap, he speaks the truth...
He worked closely, obviously, with Noble... But said his draft order did not change one spot after briefing Sando... I do believe him ....

He also said he goes in with a list and marks players off one by one until his pick comes up.... Hence why he is so bloody quick with his selections......

But this is the part I do not believe.... When I asked him if he was talking crap the years he said he picked up 8 players out of his 20 most wanted, he swore black and blue it was true.... I asked if his 20 most wanted included the top 10, who were out of his reach and he swore they were included...

I'm not talking alter boys, I'm talking midfielders who are physically ready to play not athletes. Wasnt he quoted when it came to the Grigg pick that he asked Sando if he wanted a guy who was a little slow but was physically a tough nut and had a great kick and Sando said pick him.

I am also 95% positive that I recall Rendell in 5AA before the draft stating they were going into the draft with a different strategy, instead if running through his list there would be more discussion at each pick.

Anyway, this is one point I said there was a difference, I stand by my others as well.

 

[AFC979810]

Great stats Big Fella....

So they key point is Sando has hurt our goalkicking right?

 

[jenny61_99]

I'm still not convinced that a 5+ goal second quarter lead, followed by the capitulation was EVER Neil Craig's special. But I thought it worth researching to see what we could deduce (as best we can) from the stats. So far I've pulled out all our losing games since 2005, and the breakdown of each end of quarter score (as follows). I haven't had a chance to fully analyse it yet, but intend to do so when I get a chance. Of course it doesn't take into account mid-quarter leads, or conditions (whether one end was the scoring end due to wind etc). The other thing I wanted to do, was look at games where we've been behind and gone on to win. Again, I'll do those figures when I get a chance. Anyways, so here we go:


LOSSES

* = finals

2005
Adelaide Crows 3.3 5.7 7.9 7.11 53 West Coast Eagles 1.1 3.4 6.5 9.10 64
Western Bulldogs 2.4 6.8 15.9 21.14 140 Adelaide Crows 4.3 9.9 10.10 16.13 109
Melbourne Demons 3.2 5.5 7.7 11.12 78 Adelaide Crows 2.4 5.7 6.11 7.12 54
Adelaide Crows 1.2 1.5 5.11 8.15 63 Brisbane Lions 2.0 7.1 10.3 11.6 72
Geelong Cats 5.3 5.3 9.4 9.7 61 Adelaide Crows 2.1 4.6 7.6 8.9 57
Adelaide Crows 3.3 3.5 5.7 8.9 57 St Kilda Saints 1.0 6.3 9.3 10.5 65*
West Coast Eagles 2.2 6.5 11.8 14.9 93 Adelaide Crows 2.2 5.4 6.6 11.11 77*

2006
Adelaide Crows 3.3 4.5 7.7 13.10 88 West Coast Eagles 1.4 6.6 11.10 13.12 90
Richmond Tigers 3.0 6.3 7.7 10.9 69 Adelaide Crows 2.4 3.6 4.8 9.12 66
West Coast Eagles 6.3 10.4 19.6 26.9 165 Adelaide Crows 1.0 4.6 8.6 12.11 83
Adelaide Crows 2.3 5.10 10.14 10.20 80 Fremantle Dockers 3.6 8.10 10.11 13.17 95
Western Bulldogs 3.4 5.5 11.7 16.9 105 Adelaide Crows 1.4 6.11 10.12 14.14 98
Port Adelaide Power 1.2 6.3 11.5 14.11 95 Adelaide Crows 3.8 6.12 9.13 11.15 81*
Adelaide Crows 3.3 6.5 8.8 11.9 75 West Coast Eagles 0.4 2.7 6.12 11.19 85*

2007
Adelaide Crows 3.4 5.9 7.14 10.14 74 Essendon Bombers 5.1 8.3 12.8 16.9 105
Fremantle Dockers 2.3 3.7 5.13 7.16 58 Adelaide Crows 3.0 4.2 6.5 8.9 57
Adelaide Crows 2.1 6.1 8.5 9.8 62 Collingwood Magpies 3.5 5.8 10.15 11.20 86
Melbourne Demons 2.3 10.5 12.10 13.11 89 Adelaide Crows 3.1 4.5 5.8 10.12 72
Adelaide Crows 3.4 5.5 8.6 9.8 62 Geelong Cats 2.2 4.11 7.13 9.15 69
Adelaide Crows 4.3 6.6 8.10 10.14 74 West Coast Eagles 3.3 7.7 11.10 14.11 95
St Kilda Saints 2.3 6.8 9.13 11.16 82 Adelaide Crows 5.2 6.5 9.8 12.8 80
Adelaide Crows 3.7 6.8 12.8 15.11 101 Fremantle Dockers 5.0 10.2 16.2 20.6 126
Essendon Bombers 6.2 10.4 14.6 18.9 117 Adelaide Crows 5.3 10.4 12.7 16.9 105
Geelong Cats 5.3 6.5 11.8 15.13 103 Adelaide Crows 1.0 4.2 6.7 10.10 70
Hawthorn Hawks 4.3 8.7 10.10 15.15 105 Adelaide Crows 7.4 10.7 12.12 15.12 102*

2008
Western Bulldogs 5.4 6.9 13.9 19.12 126 Adelaide Crows 2.1 7.8 12.13 18.15 123
Hawthorn Hawks 3.4 8.5 14.8 17.12 114 Adelaide Crows 2.2 5.5 8.7 10.10 70
West Coast Eagles 1.4 7.5 10.10 14.13 97 Adelaide Crows 0.3 1.7 4.12 5.17 47
Adelaide Crows 2.4 5.7 8.10 10.12 72 Hawthorn Hawks 2.3 5.5 8.7 11.10 76
Brisbane Lions 3.3 4.7 7.14 11.17 83 Adelaide Crows 2.5 6.7 8.10 10.10 70
Adelaide Crows 0.1 2.5 4.8 8.8 56 Geelong Cats 4.6 9.8 12.10 18.16 124
Collingwood Magpies 2.5 7.8 10.11 15.16 106 Adelaide Crows 4.2 8.5 8.7 11.8 74
Port Adelaide Power 4.5 6.6 9.13 13.14 92 Adelaide Crows 3.0 6.8 7.11 11.14 80
St Kilda Saints 1.4 7.6 9.11 13.17 95 Adelaide Crows 3.4 4.5 6.9 6.11 47
Adelaide Crows 2.2 9.6 11.7 14.10 94 Collingwood Magpies 4.3 7.6 14.9 19.11 125*

2009
Adelaide Crows 2.2 5.3 9.8 10.9 69 St Kilda Saints 4.2 6.7 10.7 15.11 101
Adelaide Crows 3.2 7.2 11.6 13.8 86 Geelong Cats 5.1 10.2 14.5 21.8 134
Port Adelaide Power 3.4 8.6 11.12 15.15 105 Adelaide Crows 2.0 5.2 8.5 12.7 79
Adelaide Crows 3.5 5.9 6.12 12.14 86 Western Bulldogs 2.4 5.10 13.15 17.16 118
Brisbane Lions 3.4 6.4 13.7 18.11 119 Adelaide Crows 5.5 7.8 9.9 12.11 83
St Kilda Saints 4.4 10.6 13.13 15.15 105 Adelaide Crows 4.2 5.2 5.4 7.6 48
Geelong Cats 3.3 7.7 11.7 14.9 93 Adelaide Crows 3.2 4.7 9.11 13.13 91
Adelaide Crows 2.4 3.10 6.13 9.14 68 Collingwood Magpies 2.5 3.7 8.7 13.11 89
Collingwood Magpies 1.4 3.5 9.7 12.11 83 Adelaide Crows 6.3 7.7 7.9 11.12 78*

2010
Fremantle Dockers 2.5 9.9 12.11 17.16 118 Adelaide Crows 2.3 4.3 9.4 9.8 62
Adelaide Crows 2.3 4.5 8.7 11.9 75 Sydney Swans 4.3 11.4 14.9 18.10 118
Melbourne Demons 1.5 1.8 5.11 7.15 57 Adelaide Crows 2.5 4.9 5.10 5.11 41
Adelaide Crows 2.7 3.9 4.15 6.19 55 Carlton Blues 5.1 10.4 12.5 16.7 103
Western Bulldogs 4.3 10.5 15.11 18.13 121 Adelaide Crows 4.4 7.5 8.9 10.12 72
Adelaide Crows 4.2 7.7 9.10 10.14 74 Port Adelaide Power 4.1 6.4 8.9 14.13 97
North Melbourne Kangaroos 4.3 8.6 12.11 12.12 84 Adelaide Crows 2.3 2.4 4.5 11.9 75
St Kilda Saints 5.1 7.2 12.7 19.9 123 Adelaide Crows 2.1 7.2 11.4 12.4 76
Hawthorn Hawks 7.2 9.3 13.4 19.10 124 Adelaide Crows 2.3 6.6 9.8 11.11 77
Port Adelaide Power 2.3 5.5 10.7 13.10 88 Adelaide Crows 1.5 2.9 5.10 9.15 69
Richmond Tigers 4.4 5.4 11.7 15.10 100 Adelaide Crows 3.2 7.11 9.13 11.14 80
Adelaide Crows 1.5 5.7 7.10 7.11 53 Western Bulldogs 3.1 6.7 7.11 8.13 61
Collingwood Magpies 1.3 3.5 4.10 6.18 54 Adelaide Crows 3.3 4.7 6.8 7.9 51

2011
Adelaide Crows 0.3 2.5 4.9 7.12 54 Fremantle Dockers 5.3 7.7 8.11 11.13 79
Port Adelaide Power 0.3 6.6 11.7 14.14 98 Adelaide Crows 4.6 7.9 7.11 9.12 66
Carlton Blues 5.5 6.12 8.17 11.19 85 Adelaide Crows 1.2 6.2 9.4 12.7 79
Melbourne Demons 2.7 6.11 14.16 22.17 149 Adelaide Crows 2.0 5.3 6.4 8.5 53
Collingwood Magpies 2.6 2.10 9.12 20.15 135 Adelaide Crows 4.1 8.4 12.6 14.8 92
Adelaide Crows 3.2 5.7 6.7 8.13 61 Brisbane Lions 1.3 6.7 11.11 15.11 101
North Melbourne Kangaroos 6.1 8.3 13.5 18.7 115 Adelaide Crows 2.1 4.4 6.7 10.8 68
Adelaide Crows 3.1 3.3 8.5 10.7 67 West Coast Eagles 1.3 8.7 9.10 15.16 106
Western Bulldogs 2.4 6.9 10.12 14.16 100 Adelaide Crows 6.2 7.5 9.7 10.10 70
Geelong Cats 7.3 9.6 14.10 19.11 125 Adelaide Crows 1.1 2.2 4.6 10.13 73
Adelaide Crows 5.3 8.7 9.9 10.13 73 Essendon Bombers 0.2 2.7 6.11 12.12 84
St Kilda Saints 5.1 10.2 14.11 19.13 127 Adelaide Crows 1.2 2.5 2.6 3.6 24
Adelaide Crows 2.3 5.6 8.10 12.13 85 Geelong Cats 2.3 8.7 11.10 14.12 96
Adelaide Crows 7.3 9.6 12.9 15.9 99 Richmond Tigers 5.2 6.8 12.13 17.19 121
West Coast Eagles 2.5 10.6 14.9 22.13 145 Adelaide Crows 0.0 2.0 4.4 7.8 50

 

[Stripple]

I'm still not convinced that a 5+ goal second quarter lead, followed by the capitulation was EVER Neil Craig's special. But I thought it worth researching to see what we could deduce (as best we can) from the stats. So far I've pulled out all our losing games since 2005, and the breakdown of each end of quarter score (as follows). I haven't had a chance to fully analyse it yet, but intend to do so when I get a chance. Of course it doesn't take into account mid-quarter leads, or conditions (whether one end was the scoring end due to wind etc). The other thing I wanted to do, was look at games where we've been behind and gone on to win. Again, I'll do those figures when I get a chance. Anyways, so here we go:


LOSSES

* = finals

2005
Adelaide Crows 3.3 5.7 7.9 7.11 53 West Coast Eagles 1.1 3.4 6.5 9.10 64
Western Bulldogs 2.4 6.8 15.9 21.14 140 Adelaide Crows 4.3 9.9 10.10 16.13 109
Melbourne Demons 3.2 5.5 7.7 11.12 78 Adelaide Crows 2.4 5.7 6.11 7.12 54
Adelaide Crows 1.2 1.5 5.11 8.15 63 Brisbane Lions 2.0 7.1 10.3 11.6 72
Geelong Cats 5.3 5.3 9.4 9.7 61 Adelaide Crows 2.1 4.6 7.6 8.9 57
Adelaide Crows 3.3 3.5 5.7 8.9 57 St Kilda Saints 1.0 6.3 9.3 10.5 65*
West Coast Eagles 2.2 6.5 11.8 14.9 93 Adelaide Crows 2.2 5.4 6.6 11.11 77*

2006
Adelaide Crows 3.3 4.5 7.7 13.10 88 West Coast Eagles 1.4 6.6 11.10 13.12 90
Richmond Tigers 3.0 6.3 7.7 10.9 69 Adelaide Crows 2.4 3.6 4.8 9.12 66
West Coast Eagles 6.3 10.4 19.6 26.9 165 Adelaide Crows 1.0 4.6 8.6 12.11 83
Adelaide Crows 2.3 5.10 10.14 10.20 80 Fremantle Dockers 3.6 8.10 10.11 13.17 95
Western Bulldogs 3.4 5.5 11.7 16.9 105 Adelaide Crows 1.4 6.11 10.12 14.14 98
Port Adelaide Power 1.2 6.3 11.5 14.11 95 Adelaide Crows 3.8 6.12 9.13 11.15 81*
Adelaide Crows 3.3 6.5 8.8 11.9 75 West Coast Eagles 0.4 2.7 6.12 11.19 85*

2007
Adelaide Crows 3.4 5.9 7.14 10.14 74 Essendon Bombers 5.1 8.3 12.8 16.9 105
Fremantle Dockers 2.3 3.7 5.13 7.16 58 Adelaide Crows 3.0 4.2 6.5 8.9 57
Adelaide Crows 2.1 6.1 8.5 9.8 62 Collingwood Magpies 3.5 5.8 10.15 11.20 86
Melbourne Demons 2.3 10.5 12.10 13.11 89 Adelaide Crows 3.1 4.5 5.8 10.12 72
Adelaide Crows 3.4 5.5 8.6 9.8 62 Geelong Cats 2.2 4.11 7.13 9.15 69
Adelaide Crows 4.3 6.6 8.10 10.14 74 West Coast Eagles 3.3 7.7 11.10 14.11 95
St Kilda Saints 2.3 6.8 9.13 11.16 82 Adelaide Crows 5.2 6.5 9.8 12.8 80
Adelaide Crows 3.7 6.8 12.8 15.11 101 Fremantle Dockers 5.0 10.2 16.2 20.6 126
Essendon Bombers 6.2 10.4 14.6 18.9 117 Adelaide Crows 5.3 10.4 12.7 16.9 105
Geelong Cats 5.3 6.5 11.8 15.13 103 Adelaide Crows 1.0 4.2 6.7 10.10 70
Hawthorn Hawks 4.3 8.7 10.10 15.15 105 Adelaide Crows 7.4 10.7 12.12 15.12 102*

2008
Western Bulldogs 5.4 6.9 13.9 19.12 126 Adelaide Crows 2.1 7.8 12.13 18.15 123
Hawthorn Hawks 3.4 8.5 14.8 17.12 114 Adelaide Crows 2.2 5.5 8.7 10.10 70
West Coast Eagles 1.4 7.5 10.10 14.13 97 Adelaide Crows 0.3 1.7 4.12 5.17 47
Adelaide Crows 2.4 5.7 8.10 10.12 72 Hawthorn Hawks 2.3 5.5 8.7 11.10 76
Brisbane Lions 3.3 4.7 7.14 11.17 83 Adelaide Crows 2.5 6.7 8.10 10.10 70
Adelaide Crows 0.1 2.5 4.8 8.8 56 Geelong Cats 4.6 9.8 12.10 18.16 124
Collingwood Magpies 2.5 7.8 10.11 15.16 106 Adelaide Crows 4.2 8.5 8.7 11.8 74
Port Adelaide Power 4.5 6.6 9.13 13.14 92 Adelaide Crows 3.0 6.8 7.11 11.14 80
St Kilda Saints 1.4 7.6 9.11 13.17 95 Adelaide Crows 3.4 4.5 6.9 6.11 47
Adelaide Crows 2.2 9.6 11.7 14.10 94 Collingwood Magpies 4.3 7.6 14.9 19.11 125*

2009
Adelaide Crows 2.2 5.3 9.8 10.9 69 St Kilda Saints 4.2 6.7 10.7 15.11 101
Adelaide Crows 3.2 7.2 11.6 13.8 86 Geelong Cats 5.1 10.2 14.5 21.8 134
Port Adelaide Power 3.4 8.6 11.12 15.15 105 Adelaide Crows 2.0 5.2 8.5 12.7 79
Adelaide Crows 3.5 5.9 6.12 12.14 86 Western Bulldogs 2.4 5.10 13.15 17.16 118
Brisbane Lions 3.4 6.4 13.7 18.11 119 Adelaide Crows 5.5 7.8 9.9 12.11 83
St Kilda Saints 4.4 10.6 13.13 15.15 105 Adelaide Crows 4.2 5.2 5.4 7.6 48
Geelong Cats 3.3 7.7 11.7 14.9 93 Adelaide Crows 3.2 4.7 9.11 13.13 91
Adelaide Crows 2.4 3.10 6.13 9.14 68 Collingwood Magpies 2.5 3.7 8.7 13.11 89
Collingwood Magpies 1.4 3.5 9.7 12.11 83 Adelaide Crows 6.3 7.7 7.9 11.12 78*

2010
Fremantle Dockers 2.5 9.9 12.11 17.16 118 Adelaide Crows 2.3 4.3 9.4 9.8 62
Adelaide Crows 2.3 4.5 8.7 11.9 75 Sydney Swans 4.3 11.4 14.9 18.10 118
Melbourne Demons 1.5 1.8 5.11 7.15 57 Adelaide Crows 2.5 4.9 5.10 5.11 41
Adelaide Crows 2.7 3.9 4.15 6.19 55 Carlton Blues 5.1 10.4 12.5 16.7 103
Western Bulldogs 4.3 10.5 15.11 18.13 121 Adelaide Crows 4.4 7.5 8.9 10.12 72
Adelaide Crows 4.2 7.7 9.10 10.14 74 Port Adelaide Power 4.1 6.4 8.9 14.13 97
North Melbourne Kangaroos 4.3 8.6 12.11 12.12 84 Adelaide Crows 2.3 2.4 4.5 11.9 75
St Kilda Saints 5.1 7.2 12.7 19.9 123 Adelaide Crows 2.1 7.2 11.4 12.4 76
Hawthorn Hawks 7.2 9.3 13.4 19.10 124 Adelaide Crows 2.3 6.6 9.8 11.11 77
Port Adelaide Power 2.3 5.5 10.7 13.10 88 Adelaide Crows 1.5 2.9 5.10 9.15 69
Richmond Tigers 4.4 5.4 11.7 15.10 100 Adelaide Crows 3.2 7.11 9.13 11.14 80
Adelaide Crows 1.5 5.7 7.10 7.11 53 Western Bulldogs 3.1 6.7 7.11 8.13 61
Collingwood Magpies 1.3 3.5 4.10 6.18 54 Adelaide Crows 3.3 4.7 6.8 7.9 51

2011
Adelaide Crows 0.3 2.5 4.9 7.12 54 Fremantle Dockers 5.3 7.7 8.11 11.13 79
Port Adelaide Power 0.3 6.6 11.7 14.14 98 Adelaide Crows 4.6 7.9 7.11 9.12 66
Carlton Blues 5.5 6.12 8.17 11.19 85 Adelaide Crows 1.2 6.2 9.4 12.7 79
Melbourne Demons 2.7 6.11 14.16 22.17 149 Adelaide Crows 2.0 5.3 6.4 8.5 53
Collingwood Magpies 2.6 2.10 9.12 20.15 135 Adelaide Crows 4.1 8.4 12.6 14.8 92
Adelaide Crows 3.2 5.7 6.7 8.13 61 Brisbane Lions 1.3 6.7 11.11 15.11 101
North Melbourne Kangaroos 6.1 8.3 13.5 18.7 115 Adelaide Crows 2.1 4.4 6.7 10.8 68
Adelaide Crows 3.1 3.3 8.5 10.7 67 West Coast Eagles 1.3 8.7 9.10 15.16 106
Western Bulldogs 2.4 6.9 10.12 14.16 100 Adelaide Crows 6.2 7.5 9.7 10.10 70
Geelong Cats 7.3 9.6 14.10 19.11 125 Adelaide Crows 1.1 2.2 4.6 10.13 73
Adelaide Crows 5.3 8.7 9.9 10.13 73 Essendon Bombers 0.2 2.7 6.11 12.12 84
St Kilda Saints 5.1 10.2 14.11 19.13 127 Adelaide Crows 1.2 2.5 2.6 3.6 24
Adelaide Crows 2.3 5.6 8.10 12.13 85 Geelong Cats 2.3 8.7 11.10 14.12 96
Adelaide Crows 7.3 9.6 12.9 15.9 99 Richmond Tigers 5.2 6.8 12.13 17.19 121
West Coast Eagles 2.5 10.6 14.9 22.13 145 Adelaide Crows 0.0 2.0 4.4 7.8 50

That is alot of data

 

[Wood_Duck]

I'm still not convinced that a 5+ goal second quarter lead, followed by the capitulation was EVER Neil Craig's special. But I thought it worth researching to see what we could deduce (as best we can) from the stats. So far I've pulled out all our losing games since 2005, and the breakdown of each end of quarter score (as follows). I haven't had a chance to fully analyse it yet, but intend to do so when I get a chance. Of course it doesn't take into account mid-quarter leads, or conditions (whether one end was the scoring end due to wind etc). The other thing I wanted to do, was look at games where we've been behind and gone on to win. Again, I'll do those figures when I get a chance. Anyways, so here we go:

Any chance I could get you to utilize some graphs as well?

 

[spexau]

Maybe spreadsheet that up?

 

[jenny61_99]

C'mon boys, don't be wusses. It's easy enough to read and interpret.

 

[Slippery Pete]

Jen.....

Have you read ANY of this thread?

 

[A FEW GOOD MEN]

This is only the first part of the analysis.

The number of times we have been 5 goals ahead and subsequently lost the game must be compared to the average for all other teams.

It's like saying "Neil Craig screwed our chance of future success by refusing to trade players". The first question you need to ask is how many trades per year were made under Craig and compare this to other teams. This is also a bit simplistic since there may be correlation between the position of teams on the premiership table and the number of trades. Teams at the bottom of the table may prefer to draft kids rather than trade players.

Nevertheless, it is always easier to use anecdotal evidence. For example "Malthouse traded for Jolly and Ball to win a premiership. If Craig wasn't so stubborn and refuse to trade players we could have won a flag(s).