Opinion The 'Carlton related stuff that doesn't need it's own thread' thread Part 2

[katmanblue]

I really don't get the criticism of LOB's "hard-at-it-ness". Whenever he's played, I've seen him wear contact without a short-step, seen him tackle with genuine intent, seen him desperately try to win the ball in dispute. For me, his hardness isn't in question at all, especially when you compare him with other outside mids across the comp.

It's his composure. He's prone to making unforced errors, and when he does it's often when he's in space and streaming forward, which means the rest of the side is streaming forward too. Miskick, turnover, everyone out of position, opposition score - possibly a 12pt swing.

But composure is one of those ones that is so hard to learn. You can't really do it at the lower level because when you step up the intensity does too, but a club won't tolerate poor composure in the seniors for long when it causes breakdowns in play that can cost games.

LOB got his chance this year, and may have bottled it in that one dropped uncontested mark followed by a panicked miskick and turnover.

It's mental toughness not physical that is the issue.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Someone in our professional/mature-scouting department has pulled off a ripper here, if so.

There is a touch of irony that the Cats picked Lachie Fogarty up with Pick 22 that they got from us in the 2017 draft .

 

[Arr0w]

I struggle with the effective kick definition. Why is it 40m and why is it the fault of the kicker if its a 30m perfect bullet and the target spills the mark. Why should that be an ineffective disposal. Sorry just an aside on those metrics.

My comment on Murph is that I do like what he brings offensively and probably organisationally but it's tough to reconcile with some of his contested work and defensive ball watching.

I don't agree with the measure either, so it really is difficult to assess it unless it corresponds with vision

I don't think Murphy has been our worst, but hopefully we start transitioning away from he and the likes of Betts, Levi and Ed

 

[katmanblue]

Every game Lobs played I've written down minimum 1 contest he's pulled out of or avoided.

You write stuff down when watching? I have a hard enough time just keeping up with the players on field.

 

[JustaBattler]

You write stuff down when watching? I have a hard enough time just keeping up with the players on field.

Always watch a game at least two times and take notes. The eyeball test is often prone to error unless it is the same vision in different games repeated on-field behaviour patterns are then fair assessment of a player's current inputs. By and large half the stats quoted in usual sources are rubbish and TV coverage, unfortunately, misses the off-ball running that is pretty much 90% of any players contribution to team outcomes.

The evidence of shortcomings on certain favoured players like Murphy is overwhelming as far as defensive cost to team performance. Same can be said of playing Levi injured, or playing Setterfield on a wing - where he is mostly useless and embarrassing.

Second or third viewings throw up interesting 'experiments being tried on field as well -eg Jones playing CHB role against Fremantle was a huge win - using his intercept and run through the centre to great effect V intercept near goals.

I would pay for a full field of view access ie from behind goals - which is the way players see the game and play.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

You write stuff down when watching? I have a hard enough time just keeping up with the players on field.

I'm young enough still! I watch on my dual monitor setup though and pause a lot with kayo.

 

[gandaal]

Stocker

 

[Kleenex Crew]

 

[skadoosh]

Always watch a game at least two times and take notes. The eyeball test is often prone to error unless it is the same vision in different games repeated on-field behaviour patterns are then fair assessment of a player's current inputs. By and large half the stats quoted in usual sources are rubbish and TV coverage, unfortunately, misses the off-ball running that is pretty much 90% of any players contribution to team outcomes.

The evidence of shortcomings on certain favoured players like Murphy is overwhelming as far as defensive cost to team performance. Same can be said of playing Levi injured, or playing Setterfield on a wing - where he is mostly useless and embarrassing.

Second or third viewings throw up interesting 'experiments being tried on field as well -eg Jones playing CHB role against Fremantle was a huge win - using his intercept and run through the centre to great effect V intercept near goals.

I would pay for a full field of view access ie from behind goals - which is the way players see the game and play.

Would you be prepared to share those notes? I'd be highly interested.

 

[Metalcrusher]

I'm young enough still! I watch on my dual monitor setup though and pause a lot with kayo.

And occasionally I'll take screen grabs for reference ...

 

[Original Moody Blue]

Not getting ahead of myself at all, think I have a reasonable handle of where this team is at the moment

We beat a side that many of our own supporters tipped to win, who also proclaimed had gone past us, who had a similar number of best 22 out

Yet we won convincingly.

Sydney were years behind us and look a them now. It can change very quickly.
We should beat Norf, GWS, Adelaide, GCS, Essendon, Hawthorn, St.Kilda-lose to any of them and the season is all but over.
Already been beaten by Richmond & Collingwood.
Have to face and beat-Port, Sydney, West Coast, Geelong, Melbourne, Brisbane, Footscray.
Based on the previous few seasons, I think we have the measure of Geelong, Melbourne & Footscray if everyone contributes. Still have a huge question mark against Port when it gets tough and ugly. They have a few players who go missing. West Coast looking like a very formidable outfit..
If we are to make the finals we will have to beat some pretty good teams. These teams will be giving Cripps and Walsh a lot of attention, which means we need the next group to stand up.. Will they? They have failed to in the past.

 

[Lace_Out]

Jimmae I have dragged the discussion here rather than clogging the preview thread

Murphy does sit 2nd when comparing turnovers/clangers per possession, but the guys in yellow, 11 of them, have a better disposal efficiency as a whole. Meaning he doesn't hit his intended target as often as others. Given his strengths should be his kicking, he showed that against the Tigers at 87%, but then went at 62% and 60% in his next 2 games

EFFECTIVE HANDBALL

A handball to a teammate that hits the intended target.

EFFECTIVE KICK

A kick of more than 40 metres to a 50/50 contest or better for the team or a kick of less than 40 metres that results in the intended target retaining possession.

View attachment 1095056

So your claim, "No one uses the football better in our team than Murphy", is false, unless you have some other metric that no one else in the football world is aware of


Given you haven't claimed he is effective in any other area, I won't share those stats, but we all know where he sits

And take into account that most of Murphy's possessions are uncontested.

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[katmanblue]

I would pay for a full field of view access ie from behind goals - which is the way players see the game and play.

So would I. Be great if we could switch camera angle, like playing a video game.

 

[katmanblue]

I'm young enough still! I watch on my dual monitor setup though and pause a lot with kayo.

Humble brag. Lol.

 

[thylacine60]

Sydney were years behind us and look a them now. It can change very quickly.
We should beat Norf, GWS, Adelaide, GCS, Essendon, Hawthorn, St.Kilda-lose to any of them and the season is all but over.
Already been beaten by Richmond & Collingwood.
Have to face and beat-Port, Sydney, West Coast, Geelong, Melbourne, Brisbane, Footscray.
Based on the previous few seasons, I think we have the measure of Geelong, Melbourne & Footscray if everyone contributes. Still have a huge question mark against Port when it gets tough and ugly. They have a few players who go missing. West Coast looking like a very formidable outfit..
If we are to make the finals we will have to beat some pretty good teams. These teams will be giving Cripps and Walsh a lot of attention, which means we need the next group to stand up.. Will they? They have failed to in the past.

Sydney were never "years behind us".

 

[JustaBattler]

Would you be prepared to share those notes? I'd be highly interested.

I try and make some comments based on how I've seen the game or on various players in various threads.

Game day threads | Autopsies | Previews- generally speaking dont get into too much detail about the opposition- which is a shame - since that is the task at hand.

eg there seems to be a consensus view that Suns should be easy beats- I disagree based on the way they have been playing and some of the elite talent they have in areas where we won't be able to match them.

eg they will destroy Murphy and Dow through their HBFnks - Lukosius and Markovic are elite talents - arguably better than Docherty Saad combo we have. King up front for mine is a far better prospect than Harry - again just based on how he moves and plays his role.

There are a few of us who like to look at stuff like this but you have to have the time to go through all the commentary to find specific examples of some form of analytical attempt.

I was absolutely crushed watching the way Teague was outcoached by Buckley in the Collingwood game - that game has made me seriously question Carlton's ability to seriously consider how good opposition is likely to set up against us.

Games like Fremantle are good for the win - but they were so undermanned that a loss would have been a disaster so I don't take too much out of it except for new player input into the win - where Parks/Cottrell - were definitely value-added contributors AND the disapointing fact that they won the second half....Teague should have pressed for a large win for percentage imapct if nothing else.

If we beat Suns ( big if) and one of Port and or Brisbane we are back on track - but right now we have a lot of weak links in the side to be exploited by opposition coaches via match ups and game plan.

 

[Manhattanite]

Sydney were years behind us and look a them now. It can change very quickly.
We should beat Norf, GWS, Adelaide, GCS, Essendon, Hawthorn, St.Kilda-lose to any of them and the season is all but over.
Already been beaten by Richmond & Collingwood.
Have to face and beat-Port, Sydney, West Coast, Geelong, Melbourne, Brisbane, Footscray.
Based on the previous few seasons, I think we have the measure of Geelong, Melbourne & Footscray if everyone contributes. Still have a huge question mark against Port when it gets tough and ugly. They have a few players who go missing. West Coast looking like a very formidable outfit..
If we are to make the finals we will have to beat some pretty good teams. These teams will be giving Cripps and Walsh a lot of attention, which means we need the next group to stand up.. Will they? They have failed to in the past.

The way I see it we have to beat the bottom 6 and most of the middle 6 and maybe one of the top 6 to get to 13 wins. To do so we have to bully the bottom 6 like we did Freo (whom I have as middle 6).

I see top 5 as Richmond, Port, West Coast, Geelong and Brisbane. Need to win 1 out of 6 games. Port twice.

Middle 6 as Bulldogs, Melbourne, Saints, Swans, Collingwood and Freo. Need to win 5 out of 8 games. Pies and Dockers twice.

Bottom 6 as North, Adelaide, GWS, Gold Coast, Hawks and Essendon. Need to win 7 out of 8. Suns and Giants twice.

Note I’ve switched Swans and GWS in last 3 weeks. Either way we have to win our 3 games against them.






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[forever blue 1]

Sydney were years behind us and look a them now. It can change very quickly.
We should beat Norf, GWS, Adelaide, GCS, Essendon, Hawthorn, St.Kilda-lose to any of them and the season is all but over.
Already been beaten by Richmond & Collingwood.
Have to face and beat-Port, Sydney, West Coast, Geelong, Melbourne, Brisbane, Footscray.
Based on the previous few seasons, I think we have the measure of Geelong, Melbourne & Footscray if everyone contributes. Still have a huge question mark against Port when it gets tough and ugly. They have a few players who go missing. West Coast looking like a very formidable outfit..
If we are to make the finals we will have to beat some pretty good teams. These teams will be giving Cripps and Walsh a lot of attention, which means we need the next group to stand up.. Will they? They have failed to in the past.

I firmly believe that teams that come up against us look at last time we played, most times with confidence and we get hurt.

It’s all psychology, the teams who bashed us up in recent times, the blues will amd should try that extra 5-10 percent to say no, not anymore.

then other teams will start to take note and think ok this isn’t them anymore, hence the changed mindset.

will only take a few teams to beat who previously smashed us physically and things change very fast. Get those wins and we are off. We need to tidy up some things and I agree, but so much is confidence and if they get on a 3 game streak

watch out league, cause we are finally coming. And bite your nuts hardcore and you whimper off ground like a sad greyhound not catching that rabbit.

 

[Coops93]

Walsh stated before the draft that his preference was to be a one Club player and that he would be respecting the Club that chose him in the draft.

Bet lots of players have said the same thing until they're drafted by an interstate team.

 

[JustaBattler]

Bet lots of players have said the same thing until they're drafted by an interstate team.

tbh I have not heard another draftee pre draft say that publicly - really impressed me at the time. Especially with him knowing that it was likely he goes to a bottom side in rebuild mode. I can aslo remember reading people's specualtions on here about which players were being targetted- Walsh copping the 'vanilla' tag.

 

[Dunna Heartknee]

I firmly believe that teams that come up against us look at last time we played, most times with confidence and we get hurt.

It’s all psychology, the teams who bashed us up in recent times, the blues will amd should try that extra 5-10 percent to say no, not anymore.

then other teams will start to take note and think ok this isn’t them anymore, hence the changed mindset.

will only take a few teams to beat who previously smashed us physically and things change very fast. Get those wins and we are off. We need to tidy up some things and I agree, but so much is confidence and if they get on a 3 game streak

watch out league, cause we are finally coming. And bite your nuts hardcore and you whimper off ground like a sad greyhound not catching that rabbit.

When the number nine at Richmond became more physical at the player they elevated.
Our number nine did it in this game, hope he continues to do it week in week out.
When a leader does it the rest will follow.
Looking forward to Newmans return he adds an extra layer to this.
It really shits me how oppo supporters pencil us in as a win I'm ******* sick of it.

 

[Gethelred]

tbh I have not heard another draftee pre draft say that publicly - really impressed me at the time. Especially with him knowing that it was likely he goes to a bottom side in rebuild mode. I can aslo remember reading people's specualtions on here about which players were being targetted- Walsh copping the 'vanilla' tag.

Lever did, IIRC.

 

[JustaBattler]

Lever did, IIRC.

I guess he gets a leave pass for leaving Adelaide as fast as he could....

 

[Robbo's my hero]

Lever did, IIRC.

Clearly Adelaide pulled the wrong Lever.

 

[BigFrizz36]

I don't agree with the measure either, so it really is difficult to assess it unless it corresponds with vision

I don't think Murphy has been our worst, but hopefully we start transitioning away from he and the likes of Betts, Levi and Ed

I was at the game on Sunday and assumed that Murphy had gone at near to 100% effective disposals. Might have to have another look.