Opinion The 'Carlton related stuff that doesn't need it's own thread' thread

[Robbo's my hero]

Interesting isn't, we have played sides that all finish on 12 wins of more last year and all of which will probably do the same this year.

While sides like Dockers, GC, Saints, etc have played lower ranked side based on last year as a collective

Bloke has no idea

I’m with you on this one.

 

[Alphonse_]

Kreuzer cannot come back quickly enough, as much as I like Lobbe and Phillips, they simply aren't athletic enough to compete against the current group of Ruckmen.

Hope there is some good quality rucks in this year's draft crop.

Even with a bum knee, Kreuzer is so pivotal to our structure and game plan.

Once he returns and hopefully has a good run of games, we will start picking up the W's, of that I am optimistic.

Also the season is only 3 weeks old, we really should pooh pooh any talk about sacking the coach, we don't want to change Coaches as often as our country changes Prime Ministers.

Stability and consolidation is what this football club has needed for nigh on 2 decades now, once it turns around (and it will sooner rather than later), it's going to be one helluva ride, and I think sticking fat with Bolton will be a big reason for that.

Not bothered by so called external views on our club (especially from some of the so called 'neutral fans' on the main board on this forum) I am very comfortable where the club is heading, the women's team have shown things can turn our very quickly in this game, this has been a very extensive rebuild, no short cuts or quick fixes.

Look the waiting game sucks, I hate losing as much as the next fan, but I can the slow fruits of our labour starting to ripe.

Much more productive and enjoyable as a fan to focus on the positives/future than dwell on the losses/negatives (in my opinion)

 

[Jeremias]

'
I liked that in an article effectively about our kids not coming on, green shoots not sprouting, he referred to our top 5 'AFL ranked' players this year being significantly younger than our top 6 from last year. Cripps, SPS, Weiters, Fish & Plow (ave 22) versus Cripps, Simmo, Ed, Charlie, Jones, Thomas (ave 28). Isn't that exactly what we want to happen? That the kids take the reigns on field?

Outside that 'top 5' we've got Harry who seems to be really coming along nicely, has taken the most contested marks ever recorded in the first 3 rounds. Then Walsh, Setters, Mitch, Marchbank, Dow, Charlie, DC, O'Brien, Kennedy & Jack banging down the door, Lang to come back, Willo & Macreadie not far off, TDK showing great signs before his knee, Garlett possibly being re-tooled as that small defender we lack... there's plenty to like in terms of the 'green shoots'.

Just for some perspective: darlings of the AFL & everybody's second favourite team, Brisbane, were in a pretty similar position to us this time last year. 0-3 with an average loss of 19 points, we're at 23 points now. They played Stk, Mel & Port, we've played Rich (unfortunately for us the only time this year they'll field full top 5/6), Port & Syd.

Put a frame around it and hang it on the wall.

Great post.

Third paragraph in particular is a beauty. Puts things into perspective which is so often lost and ignored.

 

[Robbo's my hero]

A Carlton supporting friend sent me a copy of Matt Walsh’s article via email. It’s fair to say that we’ve been locking horns for sometime on Carlton’s rebuild and it’s chances of success. This was my response today to the ‘cat and mouse’ we continue to play.

I’ve read this article already. The statistics appear to be conclusive and damning however we have a healthy distrust of statistics. Remember that book? ‘Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics’. Even the PM and the Treasurer are trying to convince us that the economy is on the up and we’re ‘back in black’. Do you believe them?

We’ve lost 3 games. The games all looked tough to win. The margins have been 33, 16 and 19. For a start, compared to last year those results are statistically, those results are an improvement. See I’m using statistics to justify my argument. Are you convinced? 12 quarters of footy and were down 68 points. Less than a goal a quarter on average. I don’t have last year’s figures for those three games but I’ll hazard a guess and say we’ve improved.
All I’m saying is you can dress up anything to suit your argument.

Like you I rely more on what I see. We grew up in an age when everything was much simpler and not over analysed. So here’s my take.

I’ll try to be brief.

We’ve had inconsistencies in all three games. Two options to choose from here. The team is not good enough and this will continue. Or. We’ve got an inexperienced team that cannot sustain the effort for a full game.

Tactics in the games against Port and Sydney put us under unnecessary pressure. I’ve never been a fan of playing an extra man in defence. In both games, after having great first quarters, we’ve resorted to this tactic in the second quarter because of a perception that our opponents are on top in the game. It doesn’t take long for a game to turn and I think this is a flawed tactic. Why? Firstly it hasn’t worked in either game. Both Port and Sydney dominated the quarters. You’re inviting the ball to stay in your defensive half as their extra in our half provides them with an easy way out. It’s a bit like playing too deep in a soccer match to try and stop a goal from being scored.

Finally. I think we’re trying to play a more direct brand of footy. When it works it looks good. When it doesn’t. For it to work we need two aspects working together. The big guys need to win the contest in the air and the little guys need to be in the right spot when it hits the deck. I know that’s oversimplified but you get my drift. So far Harry McKay has been a revelation and you’ve got to be excited about the way he’s shaping up this season. As for Curnow and McGovern circumstances have conspired to prevent them from playing at their best. As for the smalls, we’re still trying to manufacture a solution. Ed Curnow has kicked six goals which is great but he’s not a small forward. He’s playing a role for the team. Cuningham looked good in the first game and then was injured at training. I hope he’s back soon because I liked what I saw. Gibbons and Polson have kicked 1 goal between them in five games. Not a great stat for small forwards.

So that’s my take. Love it or leave it.

 

[Alphonse_]

Has Robbo published his Carlton transitioning from Bolton to Walls think piece yet ? He picks up most of his rubbish from this site apparently.

Quite pleased with our relative lack of media coverage so far, seems most of the whippersnappers know we are still in a transitional phase of our list construction. (If Sellers can keep His trap shut for now that would be great, and i am a big fan of Maclure)

 

[Alphonse_]

He's the 'Captain Obvious' of journalists - so reactionary.

To be fair, Ralphy has been pretty fair on our rebuild up until now, My Robbo senses are tingling (in that a certain portly, beer guzzling chief of football editor ordered Ralph to pen this article)

We have to realize how much of a toxic influence 'The incredible Bulk' has at the Hun these days. He has been trying to get Woosha sacked from Essendon for a couple of years now. Take this article with a grain of salt and bin it. We will still end up having our annual season win against The Bombers anyway lol

 

[pinot]

Brisbane scored 90+ points some eight times last year while we struggle to score above 75pts and people find this perfectly acceptable implementing a game plan over four pre seasons?. Not in this lifetime.

 

[bigm386]

Brisbane scored 90+ points some eight times last year while we struggle to score above 75pts and people find this perfectly acceptable implementing a game plan over four pre seasons?. Not in this lifetime.

I would suggest reading that SEN article in particular noting the midfield demographics from 2019 and remembering last year Brisbane had a senior midfield brigade of Zorko, Robbo, Beams and Rich all within the peak AFL player age.

Our biggest issue is disposal inside 50 we have a VERY young midfield and it will get better.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Brisbane scored 90+ points some eight times last year while we struggle to score above 75pts and people find this perfectly acceptable implementing a game plan over four pre seasons?. Not in this lifetime.

Brisbane started 0-4 last season and scored a massive 17 points against Richmond in round 4.

 

[Stamos]

Brisbane scored 90+ points some eight times last year while we struggle to score above 75pts and people find this perfectly acceptable implementing a game plan over four pre seasons?. Not in this lifetime.

We're a year behind Brisbane in our list build, without counting the injury write-off that was 2018.

Why don't you reassess in 19 games time?

 

[pinot]

We're a year behind Brisbane in our list build, without counting the injury write-off that was 2018.

Why don't you reassess in 19 games time?

Because I have lost total confidence in this coaching group.

 

[BluesRule]

Brisbane scored 90+ points some eight times last year while we struggle to score above 75pts and people find this perfectly acceptable implementing a game plan over four pre seasons?. Not in this lifetime.

Yet we persist in picking Polson and Gibbons and expecting a change up forward. If we don't have a genuine small forward, stop trying to throw small players in who do not have the skills (unless it is fisher and Ed Curnow who both give us something forward)

Gold Coast have been slingshotting out of defence all season so we really need to shut them down in their back half. Our Tackles inside 50 are currently too rare, so lets get some guys in who can really tackle and make it hurt.

Would love to see JSOS and Kennedy (for Polson and gibbons) in this week so we have some bigger/ mature bodies with AFL level fitness and skills in the team. I think both are best 22 and their hardness in tackles will unsettle the Gold Coast far more, plus they know where to go, are capable of taking contested marks, plus they both have a good set shot and both can play through the midfield.

Nothing wrong with mauling our way forward if we can lock it inside 50. Really hate the waste and panic shots we are currently seeing once inside 50, then the fast and easy exit of the opposition.

 

[Arr0w]

Disagree, they're good points. Whilst they might be narrow and not the whole picture they can't be happily dismissed. The only area that is arguably performing better than last season is the defense. The midfield and forward line one exposed form have not got any better.

Its rather shit reading how our time in forward half has gotten worse when it's apparently been a focus area of Boltons.

The abysmal kicking efficiency is a huge alarm especially in conjunction with the extraordinarily bad # of disposals we have. Bad teams need to control the ball, they need to retain possession to keep young heads in the moment and lower our kms run. The fact that we are running the most of every team is not a good thing. 'let the ball do the talking' we shouldn't have to run that much and still only be competitive for under half a match... Which brings us back to the only thing keeping us competitive this season. Our defence. Weitering and Jones are unbelievable.

I've been stewing on this for a few days and I've been a strong backer of Bolton but I simply can't get behind this absolute faith in him and the way he's doing things. I don't think he's finished but I do strongly believe he's approaching a crossroads.

The swans are bad, they don't have the personnel anymore. They're almost as young as us, which isn't the ultimate point, the ultimate point is that John Longmuir found a way to win. He quite clearly found some matchups to expose and a tactic that would counter our game plan - severely condensed the game.

Wins are important and he knows that, Bolton seems to be so stubbornly engrossed in his plan/method that he refuses to go for the win. Things could've been tweaked against port and against Sydney to bring us back earlier and weren't. This method was fine last season when it was instill the game plan at all costs but that's got to shift towards having a real crack at winning. Dew is a good in game coach. I can almost guarantee we'll be competitive for a chunk early, then something will change (dews adjustments) they'll build a lead and we'll never catch them.

Oh and don't get me started on getting hammered in the uncontested possession count and tackle count in the same game. That's a red flag.


Go back to the Bulldogs season before they won the premiership. Extraordinarily young and they were obviously developing a game plan that was both intense and engaging for their team. Picken Murphy etc weren't playing roles any different to what our own old heads are doing. Beveridge gave the youth the responsibility and energised them by providing a game plan they could visualise working.

I understand the injury situation perfectly fine. I'm sure we'd be more structured with doch and Co but that's kinda the point. The game plan isn't shaped to the players strengths. The players are being shaped to fit the game plan. Which rarely ever works out. Probably my most important observation tbh.

I know you'll probably disagree with most and say its all part of the learning curve and development but I'll put this forward, my final point. A bit of personal experience. I took over an under 16s girls team that hadnt won a game in 2 seasons.. We made the grand final.

I was an assistant coach for a team with athletes being paid. We had more than 50% of the starting team come in new that season after the club had come last the season before. We were top 4.

Lastly my under 21s team came first in all age first division.

Just to add in a lost season last year Bolton had the opportunity to cut players loose, let the have some fun. Try daisy up forward again, look for x factors to incorporate into the next season. Did. Not. See. Any. Evidence. Of. That. Not even when games were lost. Instead it was just whack numbers behind the ball. Think about that. What did that teach our young players, new to the afl? Nothing. You don't learn anything in that situation as a player. You aren't playing a game style that has any hope of. Winning, the only thing you're doing is opening up the possibility for lazy/ negative/ bad habits to creep into games. Bolton needed to be stronger and not give a shit about scorelines.

SHT, fair bit to cover here but will endeavour to cover everything you have mentioned

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/26475885/afl-why-carlton-green-shoots-sprouting

Firstly on my comments regarding Matt Walsh's piece on his use of statistics, to determine, "Remarkably, the 2019 Blues are worse off in a number of KPIs compared to how they fared last year when they won just two games.", I stated "Bloke has no idea". I concede my post was lazy, yet I didn't want to give Matt's piece any oxygen as it was, mostly incorrect and selective. While differentials are important, they don't tell the full story of improvement or lack thereof (Be prepared to be bored)

This is some of his analysis:

"They are ranked last in the league for kicking efficiency percentage differential at -5.9 percent (up from -5.0 percent in 2018), meaning their opponents' kicking efficiency is almost 6 percent better than that of the Blues "

I don't have the stats on kicking efficiency only, but if we consider the disposal efficiency we may get a better idea. We have the 2nd highest ranking for kick to handball ratio (WC is 1st) compared to other sides. As you know this makes execution more difficult. While we have decreased our efficiency overall, other sides, Bombers and Demons have decreased further

"They have an overall disposal differential of -52.0 in 2019 compared to -31.4 in 2018 "

While other sides get more of the ball this year, apart from Bombers, Tigers, Demons, Eagles, we have improved in this area, ranked 11th as an increase compared to last year

"They're also ranked 17th for inside 50 differential at -9.3 per game."

This year we rank 15th of average I50's, above, Cates, Pies, Eagles, Roos, but our improvement is ranked 6th compared to other sides versus last year

"Despite not getting as much footy as their opponents, they're ranked 16th in tackle differential (-9.7 per game)"

We rank 12th for tackles and our improvement is also ranked 12th compared to other sides from last year

"Carlton are also struggling to keep the footy in their forward half. In 2017, the Blues were -5:02 minutes for time in forward half over the course of an average game. In 2018, they were -8.49 minutes, while through three rounds in 2019, Brendon Bolton's men are -9:03 minutes."

I don't have these stats, but I will track them down

In 2017, the Blues were scoring on 42.2 percent of their inside 50s (ranked 16th). In 2018's wooden spoon year, that figure dropped to 39.5 percent (ranked 17th), while so far this season, Carlton sit at 39 percent (ranked last).

While the 39% is correct, we are actually ranked 16th ahead of the Dogs and Demons. Most sides have actually decreased in this area compared to last year, with only 5 sides improving (wondering if this has to do with the 666 or early season form). In terms of the -/+ in this area, we are ranked 9th for improvement compared to other teams

There are other areas of improvement and decline, CPs are up, but UCPs are down (we are getting hurt on the spread, which we all know) We have also improved our points for while reducing points against, surely that is a KPI as to our improved competitiveness.

We have also played sides that won 12 or more games last year, while many other sides have played at least one game against other bottom 6 sides from last year, some all 3

Sorry to say but Matt missed the mark, probably to enhance his agenda

I will address the rest of your post (which I enjoyed) at a later date

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

SHT, fair bit to cover here but will endeavour to cover everything you have mentioned

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/26475885/afl-why-carlton-green-shoots-sprouting

Firstly on my comments regarding Matt Walsh's piece on his use of statistics, to determine, "Remarkably, the 2019 Blues are worse off in a number of KPIs compared to how they fared last year when they won just two games.", I stated "Bloke has no idea". I concede my post was lazy, yet I didn't want to give Matt's piece any oxygen as it was, mostly incorrect and selective. While differentials are important, they don't tell the full story of improvement or lack thereof (Be prepared to be bored)

This is some of his analysis:

"They are ranked last in the league for kicking efficiency percentage differential at -5.9 percent (up from -5.0 percent in 2018), meaning their opponents' kicking efficiency is almost 6 percent better than that of the Blues "

I don't have the stats on kicking efficiency only, but if we consider the disposal efficiency we may get a better idea. We have the 2nd highest ranking for kick to handball ratio (WC is 1st) compared to other sides. As you know this makes execution more difficult. While we have decreased our efficiency overall, other sides, Bombers and Demons have decreased further

"They have an overall disposal differential of -52.0 in 2019 compared to -31.4 in 2018 "

While other sides get more of the ball this year, apart from Bombers, Tigers, Demons, Eagles, we have improved in this area, ranked 11th as an increase compared to last year

"They're also ranked 17th for inside 50 differential at -9.3 per game."

This year we rank 15th of average I50's, above, Cates, Pies, Eagles, Roos, but our improvement is ranked 6th compared to other sides versus last year

"Despite not getting as much footy as their opponents, they're ranked 16th in tackle differential (-9.7 per game)"

We rank 12th for tackles and our improvement is also ranked 12th compared to other sides from last year

"Carlton are also struggling to keep the footy in their forward half. In 2017, the Blues were -5:02 minutes for time in forward half over the course of an average game. In 2018, they were -8.49 minutes, while through three rounds in 2019, Brendon Bolton's men are -9:03 minutes."

I don't have these stats, but I will track them down

In 2017, the Blues were scoring on 42.2 percent of their inside 50s (ranked 16th). In 2018's wooden spoon year, that figure dropped to 39.5 percent (ranked 17th), while so far this season, Carlton sit at 39 percent (ranked last).

While the 39% is correct, we are actually ranked 16th ahead of the Dogs and Demons. Most sides have actually decreased in this area compared to last year, with only 5 sides improving (wondering if this has to do with the 666 or early season form). In terms of the -/+ in this area, we are ranked 9th for improvement compared to other teams

There are other areas of improvement and decline, CPs are up, but UCPs are down (we are getting hurt on the spread, which we all know) We have also improved our points for while reducing points against, surely that is a KPI as to our improved competitiveness.

We have also played sides that won 12 or more games last year, while many other sides have played at least one game against other bottom 6 sides from last year, some all 3

Sorry to say but Matt missed the mark, probably to enhance his agenda

I will address the rest of your post (which I enjoyed) at a later date

Yeah. What matt did was throw stats at a wall. He didn't tie them in properly or use them to justify a theory well enough. Unfortunately, for me, some of those raw stats are a tad concerning. Look forward to the rest of the response.

 

[AceAndy]

BAU for Ralph - poor researched piece, full of holes in his 'analysis'... "5th year of never ending rebuild"

Unfortunately, these types of articles and takes will come until we start winning..

I think there is an element of truth here with many supporters , myself included, suffering a little 'rebuild fatigue'.

I would be disappointed if 2019 is another 'development year'.

We need to start winning and we need to start now.

 

[Stamos]

Because I have lost total confidence in this coaching group.

This is a problem with you, not with the coaches.

 

[pinot]

This is a problem with you, not with the coaches.

Perhaps - unless ball movement and game plan improves by 100% it will be the coaches that will have the problem

 

[Arr0w]

Perhaps - unless ball movement and game plan improves by 100% it will be the coaches that will have the problem

You mean you hope

 

[Arr0w]

Brisbane scored 90+ points some eight times last year while we struggle to score above 75pts and people find this perfectly acceptable implementing a game plan over four pre seasons?. Not in this lifetime.

And were 2 years ahead of us in their rebuild

 

[pinot]

And were 2 years ahead of us in their rebuild

Who are you trying to fool? Hipwood, Schache, Keays and Matthieson were drafted in 2015

Brisbanes first pick in 2014 was pick 44

 

[Styxx]

Fun fact,

We haven't conceded 100 points this year either.

 

[Arr0w]

Who are you trying to fool? Hipwood, Schache, Keays and Matthieson were drafted in 2015

Brisbanes first pick in 2014 was pick 44

What about 2013, when they lost 5 players, have a look at those draft picks. As for 2014 they traded for Beams and Christensen, giving up picks, 5, 21, 25, Patfull and Crisp.

I would normally tell you to improve your research, but you are not that stupid, so I can only put it down to enhancing your agenda, so I think you are the one trying to fool people, but you will continue to be called out

 

[pinot]

What about 2013, when they lost 5 players, have a look at those draft picks. As for 2014 they traded for Beams and Christensen, giving up picks, 5, 21, 25, Patfull and Crisp.

I would normally tell you do improve your research, but you are not that stupid, so I can only put it down to enhancing your agenda, so I think you are the one trying to fool people, but you will continue to be called out

You said rebuild not trading for players perhaps you need to brushen up your definition on the term.

 

[Arr0w]

You said rebuild not trading for players perhaps you need to brushen up your definition on the term.

Their culture was horrendous, losing a host of players. How they used their assets during a rebuild was their call, but it was still the start of this current rebuild

Keep trying though

 

[BluStreak]

since when has a rebuild excluded trading for players?