Strategy The case for a third tall forward

[Ford Fairlane]

Next year we'll be having to decide between Redden, Shaw and Harvey for the second (third) tall forward. I have my fingers crossed for Butcher, if he can get through a pre-season and off-load the yips.

Harvey is the more likely for me as a versatile tall who can ruck and play a roaming key position. A superb set shot too. I think Shaw is more likely a Schulz replacement as a traditional key forward who can get about the ground a bit.

Redden's the wildcard, if he can get and stay fit he could be an imposing presence. Having watched him at training a few times playing key forward in scratch matches, he positions himself well and uses his height and bulk to mark the ball in contested situations. Decent kick too.

I wouldn't mind relieving Gold Coast of Lynch or Dixon too.

 

[tribey]

You know which forward of ours had a similar debut? John Butcher.

Sometimes great debuts can have a detrimental effect on the player because the pressure is to always live up to that expectation. You said it yourself - Brisbane has been decimated by injuries. I'm sure if Schulz went out injured along with Westhoff, we'd play Shaw too.

But you already knew that.

Butcher's debut was actually a solid enough outing in the record defeat away to Hawthorn, before backing that up with two excellent performances in the fortnight after (6 vs Bulldogs, 4 vs Essendon) and had a quiet one at the Oval largely because he had Brett Ebert cutting him off and jumping into him all day, when Jared Rivers wasn't hanging off him like the halcyon days of Silvagni.

He then struggled with a modified program over the summer and due to intermittent injury never got to build on that dazzling glimpse at the end of 2011 during, you know, the worst era in our 140-odd year history.

But you knew that.

 

[Forzaport]

Brisbane gave Ken and his "brave" selection committee of not picking a young tall as it will scar him for life 'cause he's not ready - a football lesson.

They have been decimated by injuries and decided to pick 20 year old Jonathan Freeman - a 198cm who was in the Brisbane Academy squad for 2 years before taken as a 19 year old last draft - using a freebie pick for academy players. He was always a project long term player. Hes played NEAFL for 2 years. He was expected to debut later next year.

But they threw him into the AFL last night, Collingwood had some bad luck with injuriesand the kid has an unbelievable debut and kicks 4 goals.

Now under Ken's brave selection criteria he would have picked 175cm guy as he wouldnt have wanted to scar the boy.

Bugger me but I reckon Freeman today has had a massive injection of self confidence and believe that he belongs at AFL level.

A brave selection policy vs a realistic one. I know which one I want my club to follow.

Come on REH, a team pushing for the top 4 vs a team in a fully blown rebuild. Brave selection will very quickly start looking like stupidity when we start registering 100+ point losses. The odd fluke where the opposition loses every single one of their key players in a game and collectively drops their heads isn't par for the course.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

You know which forward of ours had a similar debut? John Butcher.

Sometimes great debuts can have a detrimental effect on the player because the pressure is to always live up to that expectation. You said it yourself - Brisbane has been decimated by injuries. I'm sure if Schulz went out injured along with Westhoff, we'd play Shaw too.

But you already knew that.

So every player we pick and has a very good to great game we now fear the Butcher effect?? Geez long bow to draw.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

I don't buy for a second that Ken is worried about long term psychological damage to a young player.

He and the coaching panel would have weighed up the benefits of making a like-for-like change as opposed to tinkering with the line up to accommodate players they think are more ready to play and decided to go with the tinker.

As Macca19 has noted, Shaw's defensive action would have been found out at the top level and Harvey just doesn't have the motor yet. It doesn't mean Ken won't ever bring one or more of them into the forward line with Westhoff and Schulz, he just wasn't prepared to do it this year.

We can argue til we're blue in the face about whether bringing in green talls would have resulted in wins or losses, the simple fact is we don't know. He's paid the big bikkies to make the call, he made it and it didn't work. But there are plenty of other factors in play that decide the results of games too.

Leppa is in a different place to Hinkley right now. He has to make the occasional Hail Mary play like Matty Primus did in the dark years. Especially coming off the back of a 100 point flogging at home where his side looked completely uncompetitive. Sometimes it comes off, sometimes it doesn't.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Come on REH, a team pushing for the top 4 vs a team in a fully blown rebuild. Brave selection will very quickly start looking like stupidity when we start registering 100+ point losses. The odd fluke where the opposition loses every single one of their key players in a game and collectively drops their heads isn't par for the course.

Another long long bow drawn. Our biggest loss so far has been 26 pts and now we are assuming 100pt loses will all of a sudden start occuring.

Go and look at the stats for every game - use the ones in the News Corp papers with the CD super coach points and see the contribution of the 20th and 21st player. You will see that they usually contribute bugger all and register bugger all dream team points. Playing Shaw or Harvey will result in them probably contributing as much as the 20th and 21st players have contributed on average over the season.

So what do Brisbane get out of last night's little experiment?? They get a player who starts the 2014/25 preseason thinking - I am good enough to play the game at the highest level. There is nothing like confidence. If you could bottle it and turn it into a little white pill you would become the richest man on earth. Oh all because someone was prepared to make a risky selection.

 

[Forzaport]

Another long long bow drawn. Our biggest loss so far has been 26 pts and now we are assuming 100pt loses will all of a sudden start occuring.

Go and look at the stats for every game - use the ones in the News Corp papers with the CD super coach points and see the contribution of the 20th and 21st player. You will see that they usually contribute bugger all and register bugger all dream team points. Playing Shaw or Harvey will result in them probably contributing as much as the 20th and 21st players have contributed on average over the season.

So what do Brisbane get out of last night's little experiment?? They get a player who starts the 2014/25 preseason thinking - I am good enough to play the game at the highest level. There is nothing like confidence. If you could bottle it and turn it into a little white pill you would become the richest man on earth. Oh all because someone was prepared to make a risky selection.

My point was Brisbane have been registering 100+ point losses and you're looking at their Collingwood win as some sort of example of brave selection which we should be following despite both clubs' lists being completely different in terms of premiership tilt. In any case, it's well established that Harvey doesn't have the motor for AFL level football this year and Shaw's defensive game isn't to standard. The best chance for a third tall in 2014 is Butcher and for one reason or another, he hasn't been able to earn a recall to AFL. His North game was particularly poor but I still would have liked to see him play more games instead of S.Gray during the season. Butcher's SANFL form has been erratic and he can't seem to catch a break with his fitness. I don't doubt Hinkley would have played the extra tall if one was available.

 

[Janus]

Butcher's debut was actually a solid enough outing in the record defeat away to Hawthorn, before backing that up with two excellent performances in the fortnight after (6 vs Bulldogs, 4 vs Essendon) and had a quiet one at the Oval largely because he had Brett Ebert cutting him off and jumping into him all day, when Jared Rivers wasn't hanging off him like the halcyon days of Silvagni.

He then struggled with a modified program over the summer and due to intermittent injury never got to build on that dazzling glimpse at the end of 2011 during, you know, the worst era in our 140-odd year history.

But you knew that.

Of course I knew that. My point wasn't that he can't play. My point was that sometimes huge expectations ('the Future') after a solid debut can have an adverse effect on players especially when they still have weaknesses in their game. Butcher has a skill thing, Shaw has a defensive thing, and Harvey has a fitness thing.

It's not a knock on any of them as players, and I'm pretty sure that next year you can expect Shaw to play around 5-10 games like Hombsch did in his first season before cementing a regular spot in the side.

 

[bomberclifford]

If you could bottle it and turn it into a little white pill you would become the richest man on earth.

 

[*PAF]

For mine it still comes down to do we want to win a premiership or just put up a good show for the sponsors.

If Ken thinks we can win a premiership without another KPF then he is doing the right thing. If he doesn't then I have no idea what he is doing as for mine, now that we gave made the finals, it has to be a premiership or bust with no in between.

EDIT: The Crows have always put up a good show for the SANFL, their main sponsors. Many, if not most, PAFC supporters wouldn't be happy if we went down the same path.

 

[bomberclifford]

Butcher needs to prove something to Ken.
It may not even have anything to do with his goal kicking.

From the outside, he seemed an odd scapegoat for the North loss and there have been ample opportunities to give him more game time at AFL level that would have either built on his confidence or made the line ruled through his name in biro instead of pencil.

The way the latter part of the season has panned out, it is hard not to come to the conclusion that Kern has either written him off or has another plan for him. (ie ruck/defence)

The finals will be interesting because, regardless of who we play, we will get pummelled if we don't get our structure right.

 

[Dylan8]

Of course I knew that. My point wasn't that he can't play. My point was that sometimes huge expectations ('the Future') after a solid debut can have an adverse effect on players especially when they still have weaknesses in their game. Butcher has a skill thing, Shaw has a defensive thing, and Harvey has a fitness thing.

It's not a knock on any of them as players, and I'm pretty sure that next year you can expect Shaw to play around 5-10 games like Hombsch did in his first season before cementing a regular spot in the side.

I don't think we have to worry about players being labelled 'The Future' anymore, since we can actually play football now, and don't need to hedge all of our bets on one player. Butcher's label was a product of where we were at as a team and a club, and I can't see it happening if Ken blooded Shaw or whoever else and they had a stellar game.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I don't buy for a second that Ken is worried about long term psychological damage to a young player.

........

So why did Ken speak such bullshit in his long radio interview on 5AA a week or so ago? He said he didn't think they were ready - ok I don't like it it but I accept its his call on them. But then to bullshit on about long term damage was rubbish from someone who is supposed to be a no bullshit coach. It was contemptuous of us supporters who want a better structure and game plan, to dismiss playing an extra tall, as damaging them long term if we play them this year

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Ectasy or MDMA was that little pill. Made you feel good and confident about yourself - didn't have the depressive side effects of alcohol. You stayed in control unlike alcohol and it didn't have consequences the next day like alcohol and other drugs - on both sides of the law.

But once it went from the hippie commune to the public and every man and his dog wanted to make it - including bikies, crims and thugs, and who knows what shit was added to original ingredients the magic was lost. Plenty of people made big $$$$ but none became the richest man in the world because it didn't deliver all the benefits with no cost.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

So why did Ken speak such bullshit in his long radio interview on 5AA a week or so ago? He said he didn't think they were ready - ok I don't like it it but I accept its his call on them. But then to bullshit on about long term damage was rubbish from someone who is supposed to be a no bullshit coach. It was contemptuous of us supporters who want a better structure and game plan, to dismiss playing an extra tall, as damaging them long term if we play them this year

I could be wrong.

I didn't hear the interview, but long experience has taught me coaches tell you what they want you to believe.

A player may not be ready and that's fair enough, but long-term psychological damage? Sounds a bit far-fetched to me.

Funny thing about coaches is they're just as likely to tell you about good learning experiences and players going back knowing what is required of them to take their game to the next level.

 

[Magpiespower]

 

[bomberclifford]

Ectasy or MDMA was that little pill. Made you feel good and confident about yourself - didn't have the depressive side effects of alcohol. You stayed in control unlike alcohol and it didn't have consequences the next day like alcohol and other drugs - on both sides of the law.

But once it went from the hippie commune to the public and every man and his dog wanted to make it - including bikies, crims and thugs, and who knows what shit was added to original ingredients the magic was lost. Plenty of people made big $$$$ but none became the richest man in the world because it didn't deliver all the benefits with no cost.

Pablo Escobar (the dude in the photo) was at one time considered the richest man in the world on the back of his hyper-lucrative cocaine cartel.

Some one once told me that cocaine is the drug of choice if you want to enhance confidence.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Pablo Escobar (the dude in the photo) was at one time considered the richest man in the world on the back of his hyper-lucrative cocaine cartel.

Some one once told me that cocaine is the drug of choice if you want to enhance confidence.

I never saw Pablo in the Forbes list at the top of the pile - but they did estimate his wealth and he made top 20's. He probably was the only man who effectively ran a country from "prision."

 

[Ford Fairlane]

Jordan Belfort's lifestyle portrayed in Wolf of Wall Street was extravagant. Don't know how rich he was but boy could he spend. Quaaludes his drug of choice.

 

[El_Scorcho]

The short, medium and long term benefit of playing Butcher all season would have comfortably outweighed the little we got from playing the likes of S.Gray, Mitchell and recent Monfries.

Now instead of going into 2015 with a 40+ game player who has had a chance to prove himself, we have no reserve KPFs who have any AFL experience and know nothing about Butcher.

 

[Forzaport]

The short, medium and long term benefit of playing Butcher all season would have comfortably outweighed the little we got from playing the likes of S.Gray, Mitchell and recent Monfries.

Now instead of going into 2015 with a 40+ game player who has had a chance to prove himself, we have no reserve KPFs who have any AFL experience and know nothing about Butcher.

There is absolutely nothing to suggest that Butcher would be any better starting 2015 as a 40+ game player than as a 23 game player. Giving him undeserved games for the sake of building experience does him no favours and worse still creates a 2 class system between the players. At least S.Gray, Mitchell and to a lesser extent, Monfries all earned their selections.

 

[tribey]

There is absolutely nothing to suggest that Butcher would be any better starting 2015 as a 40+ game player than as a 23 game player. Giving him undeserved games for the sake of building experience does him no favours and worse still creates a 2 class system between the players. At least S.Gray, Mitchell and to a lesser extent, Monfries all earned their selections.

Key forwards are a different kettle of fish.

If Lobbe went down we'd play Hugh Minson or Fabian Deluca if he was available. Why? Because you need at least one big boy to serve as a human totem pole all day, banging in to the other team's totem pole and so on. It's just the way it is.

Butcher, in structural terms has something of a gold pass because he's 197cm. Sam Gray and Kane Mitchell aren't. They're dime-a-dozen smalls recruited literally as an afterthought.

Again I point to Sam Reid. Another negligible performance on stats, but Buddy and Tippo keep making hay while he doesn't shine as it were.

I'd pick Butcher on size alone. The benefits to Schulz and Westhoff would be worth it alone. If he snags one or two or creates a couple himself, bonus.

 

[Forzaport]

Key forwards are a different kettle of fish.

If Lobbe went down we'd play Hugh Minson or Fabian Deluca if he was available. Why? Because you need at least one big boy to serve as a human totem pole all day, banging in to the other team's totem pole and so on. It's just the way it is.

Butcher, in structural terms has something of a gold pass because he's 197cm. Sam Gray and Kane Mitchell aren't. They're dime-a-dozen smalls recruited literally as an afterthought.

Again I point to Sam Reid. Another negligible performance on stats, but Buddy and Tippo keep making hay while he doesn't shine as it were.

I'd pick Butcher on size alone. The benefits to Schulz and Westhoff would be worth it alone. If he snags one or two or creates a couple himself, bonus.

Ok, based on that, doesn't it stand to reason that if Butcher isn't getting selected, the coaches have weighed that the structural benefits he brings are negated by his predicted output on the field? If we had Franklin, Tippett and Goodes maybe we'd also try to stretch defences with our very own quadrangle of doom but we don't have such luxury.

Our list is lacking in the tall department. There was a far too big a gap in drafting talls between the drafting of Butcher and Shaw. We're suffering for that now. I want to see Butcher at AFL level but at the same time I don't want to sit through a season of R3 performances. Forcing the issue with tall players who in the coaches' opinion aren't ready doesn't work for me. Maybe if he was at the Bulldogs he'd have played a lot more AFL this year. Then again, if he was at Hawthorn, maybe he would've struggled for AFL time, like Luke Lowden.

 

[El_Scorcho]

There is absolutely nothing to suggest that Butcher would be any better starting 2015 as a 40+ game player than as a 23 game player. Giving him undeserved games for the sake of building experience does him no favours and worse still creates a 2 class system between the players. At least S.Gray, Mitchell and to a lesser extent, Monfries all earned their selections.

a) His selection wasn't undeserved. The only undeserved thing about Butcher's selection was his ommission after round 3.

b) KPPs need to play to develop. We have an enormous gulf between our 28+yo, 150 gamer established forwards (who were both heavily maligned as youngsters btw but were continually played), and our developing stock.

We are no closer to having an answer to our KPF woes than we were in round 1 (if anything we're further away). Playing Butcher at AFL level absolutely does him a favour in that it gives him a leg up in terms of development and shows that we believe in him.

I've posted before that he's never played more than 5 consecutive AFL games.

It's not just that we're too short. It's not just that we desperately need to develop a KPF. It's not just that Butcher deserves an extended run in the side like so many other players have had. It's not just that Schulz needs the support. It's not just that extra talls make us a more flexible side. It's not just that Butcher was performing perfectly well for a 20 game KPF. It's not just because he went back to the SANFL and made a big impact on the scoreboard straight away.

It's all of those things. Butcher being left out of the side for the last 18 weeks has been a bad decision for plenty of reasons.

 

[edgie]

You know which forward of ours had a similar debut? John Butcher.

Sometimes great debuts can have a detrimental effect on the player because the pressure is to always live up to that expectation. You said it yourself - Brisbane has been decimated by injuries. I'm sure if Schulz went out injured along with Westhoff, we'd play Shaw too.

But you already knew that.

Nope, Jackson to CHF, Paul Stewart to FF