Racing The Everest

[iluvparis]

Much better off picking up a top class runner now which most have than wait and hope there is a horse that comes from nowhere and makes that massive step up into this grade. Menari is the exact type of horse slot owners look for. Top level trainer with fresh sprinters, clear group 1 ability with great sectionals and it’s biggest failure was a race over an unfavourable distance ran at a tempo that gave him no chance.

Kementari will receive one of the remaining slots if the blue colours decide to target the race.

Half the horses that have been selected are not top class runners though. They are horses that have tried and failed repeatedly over this class and trip.

How does Menari have clear G1 ability when it was belted in every one it has ever contested and has never seen an older horse.

And since when has Gerarld Ryan been a top level G1 trainer?

With this kind of logic you could be a slot holder!

 

[54Dogs]

as a little look into champion spring sprinters since BC, heres list of achievements of vrc sprint winners, leading into their spring campaign.

Mental
Career Best win: G3 Fred Best 1350m
SP on first start in spring: $13 (G1)
tries at G1 level: 0 (highest: G2 beaten 3.8)
G1 wins: 0

Delectation
Career Best win: G2 Arrowfield stakes
SP on first start in spring: $6 (G2)
tries at G1 level: 3 (best beaten 1.25)
G1 wins: 0

Malaguerra
Career Best win: G1 BTC Cup
SP on first start in spring: $17 (G2)
tries at G1 level: 1
G1 wins: 1

Redzel
Career Best win: G1 Doomben 10,000
SP on first start in spring: $2.35 (G3)
tries at G1 level: 3
G1 wins: 1

Buffering
Career Best win: G2 Moir
SP on first start in spring: $4 (G1)
tries at G1 level: too many to count
G1 wins: 0

Terravista
Career Best win: G3 liverpool
SP on first start in spring: $2.40 (G3)
tries at G1 level: 1 (beaten 6.7)
G1 wins: 0

and just because he's the best sprinter since BC in that spring of '14

Chautauqua
Career Best win: G3 Hawks Guineas
SP on first start in spring: $6 (G3)
tries at G1 level: 0 (best G2 royal sovereign beaten 3.8L)
G1 wins: 0



the only g1 winners won G1's at their latest start. both in the winter. Hard to pick on april form if you ask me.

Nice one.

So it's likely there will be an up and comer who is flying at the time, we just don't know who that is yet.

if one of the remaining 2 slot holders goes early on Kementari or Vega the final holder has the pick of the remaining litter, can sit back and watch it all unfold.

 

[54Dogs]

Actually there's 3 left now with Chat giving Hawkes the finger

 

[99 Problems]

Half the horses that have been selected are not top class runners though. They are horses that have tried and failed repeatedly over this class and trip.

How does Menari have clear G1 ability when it was belted in every one it has ever contested and has never seen an older horse.

And since when has Gerarld Ryan been a top level G1 trainer?

With this kind of logic you could be a slot holder!

You’re right some are not top class but they’re still better than other options. There’s never more than a handful of top line sprinters at one point in time. Class and trip isn’t something that’s really used at group 1 level either, there’s only realistically a handful of group 1 1200m races a horse can target a year, and generally they are racing the best sprinters in the country.

I’m not sure why you’re using Menari having not raced against older horses as a negative? That’s a major positive when pro punters and syndicates look at a runner. Older horses have usually proven to be not at the standard, as you’ve pointed out applies to some in this field.

G Ryan has won plenty of group 1’s taking into account the quality and number of horses he has in work compared to the major stables. His horses 1st or 2nd up over a sprint trip are another major positive the syndicates target. 3rd up and beyond he struggles and always has which is his major negative.

 

[iluvparis]

You’re right some are not top class but they’re still better than other options. There’s never more than a handful of top line sprinters at one point in time. Class and trip isn’t something that’s really used at group 1 level either, there’s only realistically a handful of group 1 1200m races a horse can target a year, and generally they are racing the best sprinters in the country.

I’m not sure why you’re using Menari having not raced against older horses as a negative? That’s a major positive when pro punters and syndicates look at a runner. Older horses have usually proven to be not at the standard, as you’ve pointed out applies to some in this field.

G Ryan has won plenty of group 1’s taking into account the quality and number of horses he has in work compared to the major stables. His horses 1st or 2nd up over a sprint trip are another major positive the syndicates target. 3rd up and beyond he struggles and always has which is his major negative.

Yes today - but as a whole host of us have suggested the race isn't on Saturday - its 3 months away

Menari has been flogged in every G1 he has raced in against his own age group - why will he suddenly be able to beat open class horses at that level? Just because he is unexposed against older horses doesn't mean he is suddenly going to be good against them.

Ignoring Trapeze Artist G Ryan has had two open age sprint G1 winners in the last 8 years - Melito and Snitzerland

In fact Trapeze Artist is his ONLY G1 winning horse in the last 5 years.

Doesn't seem like the kind of stats the 'pro-punters' and 'syndicates' would be frothing over.

 

[99 Problems]

Yes today - but as a whole host of us have suggested the race isn't on Saturday - its 3 months away

Menari has been flogged in every G1 he has raced in against his own age group - why will he suddenly be able to beat open class horses at that level? Just because he is unexposed against older horses doesn't mean he is suddenly going to be good against them.

Ignoring Trapeze Artist G Ryan has had two open age sprint G1 winners in the last 8 years - Melito and Snitzerland

In fact Trapeze Artist is his ONLY G1 winning horse in the last 5 years.

Doesn't seem like the kind of stats the 'pro-punters' and 'syndicates' would be frothing over.

If you’re putting that much faith in 2 year old form I can’t help you. He’s had 1 group 1 start as a 3 year old over an unsuitable trip and was galloped on and injured in the run.

You do realise racing happens every day of the year, not just group 1’s? Having spent years working for syndicates and as a bookmaker I’ve got a decent idea of what trends and patterns they identify and back. He’s a good trainer who obviously isn’t at the level of the major stables but consistently churns our winners and does well when he gets a decent horse, but does have his fairly obvious weaknesses too. Considering you forgot/didn’t realise he trained Trapeze Artist before you’re edit I’d say you probably don’t follow his work too closely.

 

[iluvparis]

If you’re putting that much faith in 2 year old form I can’t help you. He’s had 1 group 1 start as a 3 year old over an unsuitable trip and was galloped on and injured in the run.

You do realise racing happens every day of the year, not just group 1’s? Having spent years working for syndicates and as a bookmaker I’ve got a decent idea of what trends and patterns they identify and back. He’s a good trainer who obviously isn’t at the level of the major stables but consistently churns our winners and does well when he gets a decent horse, but does have his fairly obvious weaknesses too. Considering you forgot/didn’t realise he trained Trapeze Artist before you’re edit I’d say you probably don’t follow his work too closely.

So 1400 at Rosehill is too far but he is going to dominate an open age WFA line up at 1200m up the Randwick rise.

As I said - you must be a slot holder with some of the logic being displayed here.

I did forget he trained TA but take out that horse and he hasn't had a G1 winner for 5 years - why?!? Not a concern to the sydnicates and bookmakers you work for?

 

[iluvparis]

Is the Menari slotholder the same one that took Deploy last year?

Guess G1 Gerald had him a bit over the top that day

 

[99 Problems]

So 1400 at Rosehill is too far but he is going to dominate an open age WFA line up at 1200m up the Randwick rise.

As I said - you must be a slot holder with some of the logic being displayed here.

I did forget he trained TA but take out that horse and he hasn't had a G1 winner for 5 years - why?!? Not a concern to the sydnicates and bookmakers you work for?

Where have I ever said that he would dominate? Just that he was an obvious slot choice, and if the race was run today at current prices I wouldn’t be losing if he won. If you remembered the golden rose at all it was on those outrageously firm tracks Sydney dished up last spring, on a red hot tempo, and he was injured in the run.

Simple, he doesn’t get the quality of horses other stables do (and rightfully so in most cases). He’s clearly capable of handling a top line horse though. And no, it’s not a concern for them. They don’t count the number of group 1’s a trainer has won in the last 5 years when betting at kembla, Wyong or Canterbury midweek funnily enough.

 

[iluvparis]

Where have I ever said that he would dominate? Just that he was an obvious slot choice, and if the race was run today at current prices I wouldn’t be losing if he won. If you remembered the golden rose at all it was on those outrageously firm tracks Sydney dished up last spring, on a red hot tempo, and he was injured in the run.

Simple, he doesn’t get the quality of horses other stables do (and rightfully so in most cases). He’s clearly capable of handling a top line horse though. And no, it’s not a concern for them. They don’t count the number of group 1’s a trainer has won in the last 5 years when betting at kembla, Wyong or Canterbury midweek funnily enough.

Yes but on that logic Dean Yendell would be the first rider picked to ride in the Everest. Don't think that's going to be the case.

I haven't seen an unsubstantiated attraction to a horse/trainer combo this bad since Jug's Royal Symphony hard on last year.

#noexcuses - horse has been flogged every time its been in G1 company and its best wins are against superstars of the turf like Pariah, Perast and Siege Of Quebec.

Complete madness to lock it now

 

[99 Problems]

Yes but on that logic Dean Yendell would be the first rider picked to ride in the Everest. Don't think that's going to be the case.

I haven't seen an unsubstantiated attraction to a horse/trainer combo this bad since Jug's Royal Symphony hard on last year.

#noexcuses - horse has been flogged every time its been in G1 company and its best wins are against superstars of the turf like Pariah, Perast and Siege Of Quebec.

Complete madness to lock it now

You’re confusing the 2 points. I said it was a trend/pattern syndicates looked at in general, not group 1/major metro racing.

Personally I don’t like Gerald, I’d probably back one of his runners less than 20 times a year. But I do think Menari is a serious horse and would prefer it over any of the confirmed holders right now. Kementari will be a big threat if Godolphin go that way and if In Her Time comes back to her best is the other danger. Obviously that’s just my opinion though.

 

[iluvparis]

You’re confusing the 2 points. I said it was a trend/pattern syndicates looked at in general, not group 1/major metro racing.

Personally I don’t like Gerald, I’d probably back one of his runners less than 20 times a year. But I do think Menari is a serious horse and would prefer it over any of the confirmed holders right now. Kementari will be a big threat if Godolphin go that way and if In Her Time comes back to her best is the other danger. Obviously that’s just my opinion though.

You first point goes completely against what you've been arguing the whole time. G1 Gerald may be able to set them first up for a nice kill at Wyong but this is a G1 and this is a major metro race meet - an area he has been virtually invisible at for the last 5 years until TA came along.

Fair enough though - the three you mentioned would be some of the first I'd put a line through. If you want to keep drinking the farcical Menari kool aid that was out early last Spring then go for it. I won't be.

 

[99 Problems]

You first point goes completely against what you've been arguing the whole time. G1 Gerald may be able to set them first up for a nice kill at Wyong but this is a G1 and this is a major metro race meet - an area he has been virtually invisible at for the last 5 years until TA came along.

Fair enough though - the three you mentioned would be some of the first I'd put a line through. If you want to keep drinking the farcical Menari kool aid that was out early last Spring then go for it. I won't be.

I haven’t been arguing the first point. I stated the fact around betting patterns identified around his horses in specific circumstances. I then pointed out he is proven to be able to win group 1 races which is a fact, proven in the autumn. No matter how much you want to mock “g1 Gerald” doesn’t change the fact there are less than 30 trainers with more group 1 wins than him all time. The fact that you didn’t know he trained Trapeze Artist shows you don’t know a lot about the trainer.

My argument was Menari is a good choice of a slot, which is obviously open for debate and I’m clearly in the minority with that opinion.

 

[iluvparis]

No it proves Trapeze Artist is good enough to win G1s - another trainer might be getting more out of him.

 

[FallingLiefs]

we're only a month away from the run to the rose where one of last years enigmatic 2yo's improve a bit over the winter and come out and look like god's gift to racing in restricted 3yo grade.

i mean, at least wait for that.

or even the enigmatic 3yo now 4yo in a bobbie lewis or similar which i suggest is the correct option.

 

[54Dogs]

Nature Strip vs Sunlight this weekend. Surely another slot locked away

 

[Duritz]

If you’re putting that much faith in 2 year old form I can’t help you. He’s had 1 group 1 start as a 3 year old over an unsuitable trip and was galloped on and injured in the run.

You do realise racing happens every day of the year, not just group 1’s? Having spent years working for syndicates and as a bookmaker I’ve got a decent idea of what trends and patterns they identify and back. He’s a good trainer who obviously isn’t at the level of the major stables but consistently churns our winners and does well when he gets a decent horse, but does have his fairly obvious weaknesses too. Considering you forgot/didn’t realise he trained Trapeze Artist before you’re edit I’d say you probably don’t follow his work too closely.

Oh no he di’int!!!!

 

[54Dogs]

This is heading towards someone getting Champed

Quality


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[Duritz]

Nature strip shows he’s the real deal, as forecast. If he’s not in the Everest then the race is a ******* joke

 

[54Dogs]

Nature strip shows he’s the real deal, as forecast. If he’s not in the Everest then the race is a ******* joke

Too scared to take on Vega and semi decent sprinters in Melb in a Gp race over 1200. Beat a 2YO over 1050 who hasnt come back and a bunch of Balaclava mid weekers.

At least it's now won at Morphetville, better than last prep. Now to try and run a place in any sort of Group race.

 

[Duritz]

Too scared to take on Vega and semi decent sprinters in Melb in a Gp race over 1200. Beat a 2YO over 1050 who hasnt come back and a bunch of Balaclava mid weekers.

At least it's now won at Morphetville, better than last prep. Now to try and run a place in any sort of Group race.

Didn't know you posted here Lee. Good to hear from you.

 

[Lockyer24]

If Trapeze Artist is fave, then I don't see why Menari isn't a worthy runner in the race.

 

[iluvparis]

Nature strip shows he’s the real deal, as forecast. If he’s not in the Everest then the race is a ******* joke

Disappointing result for Winter Championships futures players

 

[iluvparis]

If Trapeze Artist is fave, then I don't see why Menari isn't a worthy runner in the race.

??? Er possibly because TA pulverized them last time they met and only looks to have improved since then

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Menari out of the spring therefore out of the Everest (not that it was a chance anyway)