Analysis "The Fog" Will he make it?

[CrowInFiji]

The issue we have had all season has been our forward entries.

There are few exceptions though when we see them, our forwards are up to the task- that is clear.

Tex will occasionally try to take a hanger but usually tries to work the body or else just brings to ground.

When we all gasped at how good TT is/was in the first few games it's because he managed to take the contested mark.

Fog is a goddamn bull at a gate, we need him leading up to the ball, he's not a midfielders arseh*le so don't make him get in and win his own ball.

Hack kick Laird and his apprentice Keays know only one way - kick it high and long, usually without looking.

Seeds loves nothing more than getting 600m gained so a 30m bullet? Not helping the stat sheet.

Sholl was our great hope but he can't even be a deadeye from 25 anymore.

Schoenber looks our best option given he is able to remain calm in the guts and actually lowers his eyes. His touch is still not consistently optimal yet but we basically need more of him delivering.

I don't think it's fair to have a go at our talls whilst the ball is coming in as it is. The smalls, however, have had an absolute feast of groundball opportunities and has their been sufficient return? We miss prime-Eddie.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

There's three parts to it for me. He's a beautiful kick, has good hands and is constructive in his use of the footy. But doesn't get enough of it.

1) We have to work out how to get him the ball more often. High panic bombs to a pack ain't it. It is in our interests to get the ball in his hands. Our game plan/playing style is not set up to use the best kick for goal in AFL history which should be an alarm bell.
2) Fog has to get to more contests, present on the lead more often and simply involve himself in the game more
3) Our fitness staff need to put a bomb under him. I know he's in a bit better shape this season but he's still a fatty boombah. Run, run, run. No weights

 

[Scorpus]

The positive thing about Fogarty's game at the moment is that even though he isn't getting a ton of touches, he is still impacting the scoreboard.

He's had four games with 7 touches or fewer and kicked multiple goals (2 or 3) in all of them.

That's an improvement on his first few seasons. As he continues to develop as a player hopefully he can add more strings to his bow and more ways to impact

 

[WeedsMullet84]

The issue we have had all season has been our forward entries.

There are few exceptions though when we see them, our forwards are up to the task- that is clear.

Tex will occasionally try to take a hanger but usually tries to work the body or else just brings to ground.

When we all gasped at how good TT is/was in the first few games it's because he managed to take the contested mark.

Fog is a goddamn bull at a gate, we need him leading up to the ball, he's not a midfielders a-hole so don't make him get in and win his own ball.

Hack kick Laird and his apprentice Keays know only one way - kick it high and long, usually without looking.

Seeds loves nothing more than getting 600m gained so a 30m bullet? Not helping the stat sheet.

Sholl was our great hope but he can't even be a deadeye from 25 anymore.

Schoenber looks our best option given he is able to remain calm in the guts and actually lowers his eyes. His touch is still not consistently optimal yet but we basically need more of him delivering.

I don't think it's fair to have a go at our talls whilst the ball is coming in as it is. The smalls, however, have had an absolute feast of groundball opportunities and has their been sufficient return? We miss prime-Eddie.

Yeah fair enough, but the problem is that Fog lacks off the line speed to separate and be a true lead-up forward. It also doesn't help that our forward entries are rubbish, yes, but he needs to affect the game in other areas if he doesn't hit the scoreboard. He's a statistical liability. That player can NOT exist in the modern game, not matter how much Fog fan-bois on these threads want it to.

With Tex you can rest easy knowing that even if he was to have a quiet night and only get a goal, that's he's likely affected other areas of the game in terms of goal assists, pressure acts and contested work. You'll never get that with Fogarty.

 

[WeedsMullet84]

There's three parts to it for me. He's a beautiful kick, has good hands and is constructive in his use of the footy. But doesn't get enough of it.

1) We have to work out how to get him the ball more often. High panic bombs to a pack ain't it. It is in our interests to get the ball in his hands. Our game plan/playing style is not set up to use the best kick for goal in AFL history which should be an alarm bell.
2) Fog has to get to more contests, present on the lead more often and simply involve himself in the game more
3) Our fitness staff need to put a bomb under him. I know he's in a bit better shape this season but he's still a fatty boombah. Run, run, run. No weights

Yeah you're spot on. My fear is that his physique is more to do with genetics than it is to do with the weights room.

 

[Scorpus]

Yeah fair enough, but the problem is that Fog lacks off the line speed to separate and be a true lead-up forward. It also doesn't help that our forward entries are rubbish, yes, but he needs to affect the game in other areas if he doesn't hit the scoreboard. He's a statistical liability. That player can NOT exist in the modern game, not matter how much Fog fan-bois on these threads want it to.

With Tex you can rest easy knowing that even if he was to have a quiet night and only get a goal, that's he's likely affected other areas of the game in terms of goal assists, pressure acts and contested work. You'll never get that with Fogarty.

Weird post.

In one line you lament Fogarty's lack of off the line speed and in the next you're praising Tex who is one of the slowest forwards currently in the game.

There is no doubt Fogarty has elements to work on and I don't think he'll ever have the field delivery of Tex. But I think we've seen enough glimpses to know Fog could be a contested and goal assist player, it's just about impacting the game more consistently. I don't think it's a surprise that a 35 game player hasn't reached the peak of his abilities and feel for the game

 

[Vhaluus]

2 goals from a young forward is a pass mark from me every day of the week.

 

[CrowInFiji]

Yeah fair enough, but the problem is that Fog lacks off the line speed to separate and be a true lead-up forward. It also doesn't help that our forward entries are rubbish, yes, but he needs to affect the game in other areas if he doesn't hit the scoreboard. He's a statistical liability. That player can NOT exist in the modern game, not matter how much Fog fan-bois on these threads want it to.

With Tex you can rest easy knowing that even if he was to have a quiet night and only get a goal, that's he's likely affected other areas of the game in terms of goal assists, pressure acts and contested work. You'll never get that with Fogarty.

It'd help if the Fog-haters would stop talking about fitness and conditioning like it's a tweak you make to your game. That's a process and currently he is game 35. If he hasn't moved by game 135 let's talk.

 

[arrowman]

With Tex you can rest easy knowing that even if he was to have a quiet night and only get a goal, that's he's likely affected other areas of the game in terms of goal assists, pressure acts and contested work. You'll never get that with Fogarty.

I don't know about "never", but it's certainly - IMO anyway - the measure that Fogarty needs to aspire to.

I'm rubbish at screen shots, so here's a couple of PDFs from Footywire, comparing 2021 stats for Fog with (a) Tex and (b) Jack Riewoldt.

There's all sorts of variations in there, but broadly peaking, while there's not a huge difference in total disposals, it's stats like tackles, marks (and contested marks) and goal assists that illustrate your point, I think. 1.5 goals per game is OK, although closer to 2 would be good - but perhaps more improvement is needed in the other areas for him to be fully "impactful" throughout the game.

But I think we've seen enough glimpses to know Fog could be a contested and goal assist player, it's just about impacting the game more consistently. I don't think it's a surprise that a 35 game player hasn't reached the peak of his abilities and feel for the game

Pretty much this, I suppose. Is it being impatient to want more from a 35 game player? Probably.

 

[Vader]

It'd help if the Fog-haters would stop talking about fitness and conditioning like it's a tweak you make to your game. That's a process and currently he is game 35. If he hasn't moved by game 135 let's talk.

By game 135? FMD...

He's in his 4th year on the list. That's more than long enough for him to have lost the puppy fat and improved his fitness levels, but he is still the same man mountain he was the day he was drafted. He still lacks anything resembling agility, or the ability/desire to get to more than a handful of contests each week. It's simply not good enough for a player who has been around as long as he has.

The fact is that he's shown barely any improvement whatsoever since he played his first game 4 years ago. They say "get players to 50 games and make an assessment then"... Fogarty is 2/3 of the way there, and hasn't improved one iota since day 1. We shouldn't be writing him off, but there is every valid reason for being concerned.

 

[CrowInFiji]

By game 135? FMD...

He's in his 4th year on the list. That's more than long enough for him to have lost the puppy fat and improved his fitness levels, but he is still the same man mountain he was the day he was drafted. He still lacks anything resembling agility, or the ability/desire to get to more than a handful of contests each week. It's simply not good enough for a player who has been around as long as he has.

I'm not heer to suggest Fogarty hasn't made mistakes. But being a little unfit is better than being on the nose beers. My point is if even if, 6 months ago, he decided to change, we still wouldn't be seeing the real benefits for another 6 months at least.

It's not changing the magnets.

135 was an arbitrary number based on the current figure. It could've been anything. Don't piss your pants, if he isn't fit he wouldn't even make 135 games.

 

[Golumless]

It'd help if the Fog-haters would stop talking about fitness and conditioning like it's a tweak you make to your game. That's a process and currently he is game 35. If he hasn't moved by game 135 let's talk.

By 135? That's a long leash. Like longer then we've given Mackay through his career leash.

We're 4 seasons in to Fogs career. He should be there now, or by next year. The reason 50 games is touted as a benchmark is it is the rough time a player who is on track with their career needs before the conditioning is there (i.e. 3-5 seasons). Effectively going from surviving in spite of to excelling because.

At the moment it's clinging to hope for the sake of it that it'lll change Fog.

 

[CrowInFiji]

By 135? That's a long leash. Like longer then we've given Mackay through his career leash.

We're 4 seasons in to Fogs career. He should be there now, or by next year. The reason 50 games is touted as a benchmark is it is the rough time a player who is on track with their career needs before the conditioning is there (i.e. 3-5 seasons). Effectively going from surviving in spite of to excelling because.

At the moment it's clinging to hope for the sake of it that it'lll change Fog.

See other post. I might have to do a seminar on not taking every single detail too literally.

 

[Golumless]

See other post. I might have to do a seminar on not taking every single detail too literally.

Eh, there are rough benchmarks for these kind of things. Say 50-70 games and no one bats an eyelid because it's truly a crisis by that point if Fog isn't fit enough.

 

[jenny61_99]

To me it's all about delivery to the forwards... also, stopping all three tall forwards going for the same ball. We have got this right a couple of times this season where you can see all three could work well together, but have returned to the panic "kick and hope" entry into the forward lines which means any structure that we had in those successful games, goes missing.

 

[Golumless]

Even "delivery to the forwards" is a poor excuse. A key forward who routinely gets beaten without a whimper when in sub-optimal conditions is a poor player. No matter what skills they bring to the table.

 

[UcantCme]

Our delivery to the forward is at times poor however our forwards are also playing from behind and slow to react at times

This isn't limited to Fog alone, Tex and RT are also guilty

All our KPF need to compete better in the air

On SM-G973F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Unless he learns to get on the move he’s not going to make it ….. the amount of times he got in a wrestle with Plowman and didn’t get his hands on the ball were alarming

To have 1 possession after 2 early goals where he looked dangerous is an indictment

something needs to change , he’s got time still but it will run out eventually

 

[70lethal]

At the same age Fogs is a mile behind Walker but pretty close to Mooney and Lynch who were both traded after 3-4 years in the system.

 

[Magma]

i think now simply it really just is up to him and whether he wants it enough to go from middling footballer to consistent performer

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

If Hocking is serious - and he’s not, he’s a clown - he goes away in the off-season and re-tools the entire game and presents it to the AFL and the public

remove this bullshit like Gutless Sniper getting his forever good bloke discount

but he won’t

and we’ll dick around for another five years or whatever

Would be easy to review games & hand out penalties for sniping... & also players who stage for frees & get a free kick.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

There's three parts to it for me. He's a beautiful kick, has good hands and is constructive in his use of the footy. But doesn't get enough of it.

1) We have to work out how to get him the ball more often. High panic bombs to a pack ain't it. It is in our interests to get the ball in his hands. Our game plan/playing style is not set up to use the best kick for goal in AFL history which should be an alarm bell.
2) Fog has to get to more contests, present on the lead more often and simply involve himself in the game more
3) Our fitness staff need to put a bomb under him. I know he's in a bit better shape this season but he's still a fatty boombah. Run, run, run. No weights

Yes, the crux is we know Fogarty is a quality user of the ball, but he is not getting enough possession.

I recall Petracca was similar in his fist few years too - not that I'm saying Fog will become a midfielder like Petracca, but he does need to up his possessions over the next year or so to have decent impact on a game.

 

[conVINCEd]

There's three parts to it for me. He's a beautiful kick, has good hands and is constructive in his use of the footy. But doesn't get enough of it.

1) We have to work out how to get him the ball more often. High panic bombs to a pack ain't it. It is in our interests to get the ball in his hands. Our game plan/playing style is not set up to use the best kick for goal in AFL history which should be an alarm bell.
2) Fog has to get to more contests, present on the lead more often and simply involve himself in the game more
3) Our fitness staff need to put a bomb under him. I know he's in a bit better shape this season but he's still a fatty boombah. Run, run, run. No weights

'Fatty boombah' remains the funniest phrase in the English language. Prove me wrong.

 

[Interloperer]

We have to work out how to get him the ball more often. High panic bombs to a pack ain't it. It is in our interests to get the ball in his hands. Our game plan/playing style is not set up to use the best kick for goal in AFL history which should be an alarm bell.

Delivery is definitely an issue. But a couple of points on that.

a) Under the Benjamin Morris "Throw more interceptions" theory, if you are setting records for shot percentage/pass completion percentage/any similar stats, it's almost definitely because you are turning down high risk/high reward options and contributing less as a result. As you said, he should be involved in the game more, including taking more low percentage shots (which great recent Adelaide Goal Scorers like Betts, Walker, etc. do.) It's better to kick 3.4 than 2.0.

b) Unfortunately the Stats Insider short-charting tool only goes from R1 2018 to R6 2021. But even limiting it to just set-shots, if you compare Fogarty to other players with similar range and output (Walker/Lynch/Jenkins, even occasional long range shot from Sloane/Seedsman/Smith,) He is still a very accurate kick, but he has a much higher percentage of shots marked as "miss" (out on the full or, more likely, didn't make the distance,) than anyone else from ~50m and beyond, which does not get included in "accuracy" if you are limiting it to scoring shots. Whether this means he overestimates his range, has an extra low-accuracy 5m of "really going for it" that he doesn't use, is extremely accurate right up to the limit of his distance, or some combination of all of those, is anyones guess.

 

[Vhaluus]

Delivery is definitely an issue. But a couple of points on that.

a) Under the Benjamin Morris "Throw more interceptions" theory, if you are setting records for shot percentage/pass completion percentage/any similar stats, it's almost definitely because you are turning down high risk/high reward options and contributing less as a result. As you said, he should be involved in the game more, including taking more low percentage shots (which great recent Adelaide Goal Scorers like Betts, Walker, etc. do.) It's better to kick 3.4 than 2.0.

b) Unfortunately the Stats Insider short-charting tool only goes from R1 2018 to R6 2021. But even limiting it to just set-shots, if you compare Fogarty to other players with similar range and output (Walker/Lynch/Jenkins, even occasional long range shot from Sloane/Seedsman/Smith,) He has a much higher percentage of shots marked as "miss" (out on the full or, more likely, didn't make the distance,) than anyone else from ~50m and beyond, which does not get included in "accuracy" if you are limiting it to scoring shots. Whether this means he overestimates his range, has an extra low-accuracy 5m of "really going for it" that he doesn't use, is extremely accurate right up to the limit of his distance, or some combination of all of those, is anyones guess.

Can you remember many actual examples where Fog had the ability to take a realistic shot at goal and passed off?