The future of Australian coal

[Gough]

We're not even looking at phasing out coal though with this government though, they want to continue to subsidise it ffs and there's every chance a carbon tax could be placed on Australian exports because of this. A carbon tax, not dissimilar to the one that that this government got rid of only we won't set the rate and we won't profit from it.

 

[Kwality]

The same people who told us that climate change was bullshit ten or fifteen years ago have now just changed their argument and will tell us that fossil fuels are needed for "transition". I don't believe their views have changed any, they're just arguing their point in a new and disingenuous manner.

There are nutters in the conversation & there are people in the middle, uncommitted to either extreme. Misrepresenting, overegging does more harm than good IF you are interested in winning people over.
Here is an article today in the business pages that encapsulates the issues for coal, dry business & factual:

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/dataroom/amci-circles-

south32s-eagle-downs-project/news-story/ef3ec7d37722043822b9e8a8bb3b7475

'Private equity firm AMCI is being tipped as a likely buyer of South32’s Eagle Downs project that is up for sale through Macquarie Capital.
The thinking is that Eagle Downs could sell for a price tag of about $120m.

The Queensland project had been earmarked for a $1.5bn coking coal development under the watch of South32, but the Australian listed miner has opted to instead offload the development as part of a move to distance itself from the commodity.
The mining major announced it would not pursue development of the coking coal mine project earlier this year, saying returns from the joint venture with Chinese steel giant Baowu did not stack up for further investment.

Yet coking coal prices have surged.

The mine is based 25 kilometres southeast of Moranbah in Queensland’s Bowen Basin.
South32 purchased half of the Eagle Downs coking coal project from Brazil’s Vale in 2018, paying $US106m ($148m) upfront and agreeing to deferred payments worth another $US27m.
The mine was partially built by its previous owners, but mothballed in 2015 when coal prices fell and a major contractor went bust.

IF you are really interested in the issues around coal, go the business section of any media source, not imply a headline that is designed to grab your attention

Baowu acquired its 50 per cent stake through the $1.4bn takeover of Aquila Resources in 2014.
At the time of the takeover Aquila said it would cost about $1.5bn to complete development of the mine.

A feasibility study on Eagle Downs suggests it is a low cost operation producing high quality coal.
It tips average production of 5.2 million tonnes of low volatile hard coking coal from an underground mine, at an average operating cost of about $71 a tonne – which puts it in the lowest quartile of coking coal mines on a cost basis.

 

[Gough]

Third new coal project approved by Australian environment minister Sussan Ley in just one month

Approval granted for Mangoola Coal to extract 52m tonnes over eight years – weeks before major global talks on climate crisis

www.theguardian.com

This is what transitioning out of coal looks like for Scott's government. No wonder he's too scared to show his face in Glasgow.

 

[Kwality]

We're not even looking at phasing out coal though with this government though, they want to continue to subsidise it ffs and there's every chance a carbon tax could be placed on Australian exports because of this

So what sort of timeframe is this transition supposed to take, with new coal powered facilities continuing to be built.
What do YOU say to Morrison Or Fitzgibbon?

 

[Kwality]

Here we are in 2023:
'Bidders in the $US3.5 billion-plus ($5.2 billion) auction for BHP’s Queensland coal mines – Blackwater and Daunia – are competing to woo five Japanese commodities houses to join their camps.'
... 'the commodities players – some of the biggest names in the sector – are in high demand ahead of binding bids in early August. The sales process is being run by Macquarie Capital.'

..'the Japanese players know Australian coal well, and the country has been vocal about its reliance on imports. Perhaps most importantly, if a bidder for the two mines succeeds in pinning down a Japanese partner they would have also locked in a buyer for the coal produced by the two mines.'

'It would be interesting to see if the shortlisted bidders succeed in winning over a Japanese bid partner come August, more so because the Japanese government, last year, was critical of Queensland’s coal royalty tax regime.

Should the Japanese interest in the two mines hold, BHP’s auction would also become a geopolitical temperature check on regulatory support for big-ticket Asian investment in Australian coal. Japan, China and India are among the biggest coal consumers in the world, and Daunia and Blackwater is the biggest Australian coal auction to pass Street Talk’s desk in some time.'

Interesting days ahead.