The Premiership Window

[tesseract]

So Freo had more momentum than North when the roos had won 9 of their last 10? And more than Geelong when the cats had just beaten Sydney and hadn't travelled for a month?

I never said that Freo had more momentum than North, just that they had momentum. Freo are a better side than North, but weren't expected to win the game due it being away from home. Picking Freo to beat Geelong in a final away from home, pffft.

 

[estibador]

No I didn't say that I said 5 teams would be "Expecting" to finish top 4, as in that is their pass mark.
However I did dispute the OP's reasoning that their were 9 teams able to win this years premiership.
Id concede that there are 6, the 5 I bolded + Geelong, Roos, Richmond Fremantle all lack finals experience, and Carlton have a new coach, it will take at least half a year for them to get cohesion (ala Freo this year) which rules them out of top 4 too.

As a side note, despite Sydney finishing 7th, played 4 finals over the previous 2 years, there is a difference to do that and making round 1 of finals and getting bailed out by 90+ points.

Sydney - 4 finals over previous 2 years
Freo - 4 finals over previous 3 years

...yet Freo lacks the necessary finals experience you say?

Two of Freo's four finals were at the MCG against the reigning premiers too, one of which they won. I reckon this group has the necessary finals experience for a serious tilt.

 

[pavsbootlace]

I never said that Freo had more momentum than North, just that they had momentum. Freo are a better side than North, but weren't expected to win the game due it being away from home. Picking Freo to beat Geelong in a final away from home, pffft.

I give up. See you in September for the Derby Grand Final.

 

[zetz]

I give up. See you in September for the Derby Grand Final.

If my team doesn't make it to the GF. I certainly hope WC and Freo do! WOULD BE EPIC!

 

[SHill Shall]

Calling Geelong a "top side" suits the Freo argument more than mine. Salim would rather use the Geelong game than the Adelaide game as a reference to playing a top side. Using Geelong is false.
It doesn't matter who Geelong beat or didn't beat, a team that finished 6th at the end of the H&A season aren't a top side. I'm sure the definition of a top side could be used by some teams who finished out of the eight if who they beat counts as to what makes a team a top side.

Our Geelong EF win is the equivalent of your NM EF win. Our loss to Adelaide away parallels your loss to Collingwood away. Geelong was a better team than NM in 2012. Adelaide was a better team than Collingwood in 2012.

WC's draw to the round 11 bye included only one top four side (Hawthorn - played at Subi) and the 7th and 8th sides (Freo and NM - both of whom were on a negative roll (by your your own weird paradigm)). WC were on a roll in the first half of 2012 due to a soft draw (again based on your logic). I guarantee you don't put WC's win over Hawthorn down to getting on a roll in the first three rounds against weak teams! By the end of the year, despite 18 identical fixtures (setting aside home vs away venues), there was only one win (and a bit of percentage) separating Freo and WC.

The two WA sides would appear to be very close in standard right now based on 2012 form - seeing who can make the move into the top 4 in 2013 will be fascinating (and even moreso if both do).

 

[tesseract]

Our Geelong EF win is the equivalent of your NM EF win. Our loss to Adelaide away parallels your loss to Collingwood away. Geelong was a better team than NM in 2012. Adelaide was a better team than Collingwood in 2012.

WC's draw to the round 11 bye included only one top four side (Hawthorn - played at Subi) and the 7th and 8th sides (Freo and NM - both of whom were on a negative roll (by your your own weird paradigm)). WC were on a roll in the first half of 2012 due to a soft draw (again based on your logic). I guarantee you don't put WC's win over Hawthorn down to getting on a roll in the first three rounds against weak teams! By the end of the year, despite 18 identical fixtures (setting aside home vs away venues), there was only one win (and a bit of percentage) separating Freo and WC.

The two WA sides would appear to be very close in standard right now based on 2012 form - seeing who can make the move into the top 4 in 2013 will be fascinating (and even moreso if both do).

Of course both EF wins are equivalent. My point is that Freo's win over North and Geelong came from the momentum gained from wins due to a soft draw in the second half.
I've already explained why WC's start compared to Freo's finish was different.

I agree that not much separates the team two teams.

"Negative role?" WTF are you on about? Don't attribute that to me.

 

[Suma Magic]

I think you could make two assessments of Freo v West Coast in 2012:
- they were pretty even
- west coast were slightly better.

I think most neutrals would say they were pretty even.

In terms of improvement, there are lots of variables, but just looking at losses/additions:

Freo losses (of note):
McPhee - no huge losses.

Freo gains:
Fyfe, Sandi, Pearce - some pretty key ins who missed most/all the season.

West Coast losses:
Lynch - will reduce our forwardline depth.
Naitanui - potentially missing some early season games.

West Coast gains:
LeCras, Kennedy, Embley, Nicoski, Wellingham - massive ins.

Based on this oversimplified summary, I think supporters of both teams could make a case they will improve more and/or be better than the other in 2013. IMO, I think the eagles still have an edge due to our INS. However I think that Freo fans could reasonably do the same. I think neutrals will be split, which says something.

 

[Heres Waite]

Noble you didn't put st kilda in.

also, carlton are coming from quite a way back in the standings...

Last time I checked, not a game has been played in 2013. So currently we are equal first. I dont know how that is comming from a fair way back.

 

[alanlau34]

Last time Hawthorn lost a grand final we won 3 of the next 4.

Probably had a better list then. Oh wait, your current one is the greatest list put together, ever...

 

[Dave06]

Collingwood would surely be in the same bracket with the huge impact of lossing Dawes...
Apart from a few games last season, Tippet had little impact, we also have Jenkins and McKernan fighting over with place in the side. If your referring to Walker, Walker did better when Tippet wasn't in the side last year. The main key to our side last season, and this season is our midfield, not our forward line.

In terms of being a premiership contender, Tippett has a huge impact IMO. You weren't going to win it last year without him playing well, and he nearly got you guys a shot at it. There's a reason you fought so hard to keep him on the list over the last two years. From memory (and you would know better than me) Adelaide also had a pretty good run with injuries last year in comparison to Colingwood and West Coast, as well as a relatively easy draw.

I guess I'm just yet to be convinced on the completeness of the Crows list, and even though you guys finished second last year I would have preferred to play the Crows ahead of any other top 6 team in the finals.

 

[Collingwoodity]

Last time I checked, not a game has been played in 2013. So currently we are equal first. I dont know how that is comming from a fair way back.

GWS and Gold Cost and Port are also equal first, but would you say they are coming from far back (in ability and ladder position) to make top 4?

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Has said it before.Both WA teams could very well finish 1-2 at the end of the H&A season.
West Coast know how to win away and Freo are just starting to under Lyon.

 

[Heres Waite]

GWS and Gold Cost and Port are also equal first, but would you say they are coming from far back (in ability and ladder position) to make top 4?

No I wouldn't say they are coming from a long way back (as far as ladder position). Last years ladder has nothing to do with this years ladder and that is my point.

2011 Adelaide finished 14th
2010 West Coast finished 16th
2008 Collingwood finished 8th
2007 st kilda finished 9th, bulldogs finished 13th
2006 Geelong finished 10th Port finished 12th
2005 Fremantle finished 10th.

All made top four the following year.

Going the other way Carlton was 5th in 2011 dropped to 11th last year.

If you are saying coming from a long way back as far as ability (not what you said) then that is different. And that is also your opinion which you are intitled to. I would disagree but I won't argue with you on it as there is no point.

I don't think much of Collingwood's chances of making the top 4 either but that also is just my opinion.

 

[mysainters]

Not sure I subscribe to there being such things as premiership windows.

It's a bit of a romantic term applied by the media, but heaps of sides have had success when this mystical window was already supposed to have been shut.

Footy now is a year by year proposition, everything has to go right to win a flag, to have a period of sustained success like Geelong in this modern era is truly to be admired.

 

[Big Animal]

I think you could make two assessments of Freo v West Coast in 2012:
- they were pretty even
- west coast were slightly better.

I think most neutrals would say they were pretty even.

In terms of improvement, there are lots of variables, but just looking at losses/additions:

Freo losses (of note):
McPhee - no huge losses.

Freo gains:
Fyfe, Sandi, Pearce - some pretty key ins who missed most/all the season.

West Coast losses:
Lynch - will reduce our forwardline depth.
Naitanui - potentially missing some early season games.

West Coast gains:
LeCras, Kennedy, Embley, Nicoski, Wellingham - massive ins.

Based on this oversimplified summary, I think supporters of both teams could make a case they will improve more and/or be better than the other in 2013. IMO, I think the eagles still have an edge due to our INS. However I think that Freo fans could reasonably do the same. I think neutrals will be split, which says something.

I think they will be very even. I know it will sound biased but I just can't see Embley or Nicoski doing much this year. Happy to admit I'm wrong at the end of 2013 but 2 guys in their 30s (in 2013) who both had a late flourish in their careers in 2011 after some decline (i.e. from Embley's Norm Smith in 2006) and coming back from injuries which made them miss most of 2012. I will be surprised if they aren't pushed/kept out of the team by younger blokes and retire at the end of the year. Wellingham is a decent player but was maybe a 6th string midfielder in a top team after Swan, Pendles, Ball, Thomas, and Beams with others similarly placed (Steele). LeCras is coming back from a missed season and a knee which, for a wheeling and precise kicking smallish forward will take some time to get back to his best as we've seen with players at Freo in 2012. If you think he's going to walk into the team and soonafter kick bags of 10 or even 5 I would say you're dreaming. Really, Kennedy is the key add in for WC in 2013. The rest look good on paper from past performance but "massive ins" is moving just a little away from reality. In the same way I don't think Pearce will have a massive effect for us, just a bonus of a good player adding to the team.
The question for me will be how the oldies of the team will go this year and whether they can continue with their form and stay injury free. This may have the most effect for both teams.
Cox: best ruck, highly influential, 32 by EOY
Kerr: best mid, only current WC mid I have seen turn a game, 30 by EOY
Glass: AA captain, when he's not there WC backs struggle against quality opposition, 32 by EOY

Pav: the key forward unless someone sticks their hand up this year, 32 on last day of the year
Sandi: #1 ruck but of all taps won in 2012, half went to Freo mids, 31 by EOY
McPharlin: AA CHB, 32 by EOY

 

[AusTerran]

In terms of being a premiership contender, Tippett has a huge impact IMO. You weren't going to win it last year without him playing well, and he nearly got you guys a shot at it. There's a reason you fought so hard to keep him on the list over the last two years. From memory (and you would know better than me) Adelaide also had a pretty good run with injuries last year in comparison to Colingwood and West Coast, as well as a relatively easy draw.

I guess I'm just yet to be convinced on the completeness of the Crows list, and even though you guys finished second last year I would have preferred to play the Crows ahead of any other top 6 team in the finals.

Why the Adelaide board wanted to so badly keep him is a story in itself (was it his protential that he never seems to fulfill or trying to cover up something lol), But 3 to 5 good games a year (last season anyway) when we went from 14th to 2nd on the ladder says he wasn't that important to our season.
That is the key for the Crows this season, backing up what they did last season and maybe even improve with another year in our young players like Walker, Dangerfield, Sloane, Smith, Talia and co. Only doubt for me is what happened in the off season getting to them inbetween the ears....
At least we got some finals experience into this young team.

 

[KrakFiend]

I guess it is that time of year where Richmond are looking promising for a top 4 spot...

How many rounds until the dream is shattered, again? Can they give their supporters hope until at least the half way mark of the season for once?

 

[Forward Press]

Whereas for the first time since like ever we will start the season with our best midfield all playing together without any major injuries (except Morabito, but he wasn't playing last year anyway). I'd say there's not much difference between WC and Freo this year considering last years ladder positions and finals progression.

The addition of a quality midfielder (our clearest weakness), plus strengthening our depth considerably with mature-age players and natural progression from youngsters such as Naitanui, Darling, Shuey, Gaff etc, means that I think we are closer to a flag than Freo.

You could conversely make the argument that Freo got on a roll in the 2nd half of 2012 once Mundy, Barlow and Fyfe were fit and firing and that they didn't even surpass a limping West Coast that had its 2012 ruined by injuries to key players.

I can't think of many sides where a side is absolutely full strength going into Round 1 so Freo is hardly an exceptional case in terms of injuries. We did pretty OK without our three leading goal-kickers in 2011 available for most of 2012.

 

[Forward Press]

If my team doesn't make it to the GF. I certainly hope WC and Freo do! WOULD BE EPIC!

The build-up would be insane (in WA anyway) and the thought of losing a GF to Freo (and giving them bragging rights until the next derby GF, if it ever happens again) is enough to make me consider offing myself.

jk

 

[Wolfgang West]

OP is too humble, our window is as wide open as anyone's, we belted Sydney at Etihad and went close to beating them at the SCG, if they are the benchmark we aren't far away. We were competitive against all the top 8 sides last year so we'll be right in the mix this year providing we get some decent umpiring.

Richmond flogged Sydney and Hawthorn last year, did they make the 8 ? Because a side is competitive against the top 8 in a given year doesn't mean their Premiership window is open the next. Start with actually making the 8 and then be competitive against those sides in big Finals games and then your Premiership Window is back open.

 

[Spoken4]

The build-up would be insane (in WA anyway) and the thought of losing a GF to Freo (and giving them bragging rights until the next derby GF, if it ever happens again) is enough to make me consider offing myself.

jk

Don't deprive us of your rapist wit!!!

 

[Forward Press]

Don't deprive us of your rapist wit!!!

 

[Fadge]

Richmond flogged Sydney and Hawthorn last year, did they make the 8 ? Because a side is competitive against the top 8 in a given year doesn't mean their Premiership window is open the next. Start with actually making the 8 and then be competitive against those sides in big Finals games and then your Premiership Window is back open.

Could not agree more. People suggesting a team's premiership window is open simply because they can make the eight is ridiculous.

In 2013, the alleged premiership window is open for Hawthorn, West Coast, Collingwood, Sydney, and to a lesser extent Geelong and Adelaide. I include Geelong due to their astute trading and drafting in the off-season - they have plugged some holes and are having a tilt at their 4th in 7 years. These teams have all proven they can match it on the big stage with the elite teams of the competition. Of course it's possible but it is highly improbable that any of the other 12 teams can win it.

 

[Spoken4]

See Dumb and Dumber - "Tell her I'm good looking. And I'm rich. And I have a rapist wit"

 

[Dave06]

Why the Adelaide board wanted to so badly keep him is a story in itself (was it his protential that he never seems to fulfill or trying to cover up something lol), But 3 to 5 good games a year (last season anyway) when we went from 14th to 2nd on the ladder says he wasn't that important to our season.
That is the key for the Crows this season, backing up what they did last season and maybe even improve with another year in our young players like Walker, Dangerfield, Sloane, Smith, Talia and co. Only doubt for me is what happened in the off season getting to them inbetween the ears....
At least we got some finals experience into this young team.

If anything I think the whole saga will galvanise the team. I don't think it will have a huge impact either way but I'd be surprised if it had a negative effect on them mentally.

Re: Tippett, agree he didn't contribute in a big way to your top two finish, but without him playing well I never really felt you guys were a huge premiership threat. I also think that the draw and your relatively good run with injuries compared to other teams played a part in your top two finish. That said, i thought Hawthorn were going to smash Sydney in the GF as well (even after the game against the Crows).

The way I see it the other teams I mentioned just seem to have more upside and/or current elite talent. But again, I certainly don't know your list or any other teams like I do ours. Like you said your list is young so improvement is expected and I'm definitely not writing you off as top 4 contenders. My comments on most teams lists are from the handful of times I see them play and what I gather from talking to other supporters.

Whatever happens it should be a belter of a season, could be more even than last year.