Hot Topic The Rebuild, est. 2023 and/or 2025

[Yoda_]

I dont think weve brought in a 20 yr old kid of high talent before though

And also this draft looks pretty ordinary for us. If it was an elite top level then i may have a different view, it also depends how much we have to give away, but im certainly happy to give away picks 5 and 6

Im taking the approach of wanting three top 15 picks over one Harley Reid and a bunch of later selections. We aren't that lucky where we consistently nail 40s selections.

 

[Keystone agony]

Im taking the approach of wanting three top 15 picks over one Harley Reid and a bunch of later selections. We aren't that lucky where we consistently nail 40s selections.

I mean we will have 2nd rounders and then 1st/2nds the following years

 

[Yoda_]

I mean we will have 2nd rounders and then 1st/2nds the following years

we can both acknowledge that the higher you pick the better the player youre realistically taking

 

[King Patty]

I dont think weve brought in a 20 yr old kid of high talent before though

Jye Caldwell possibly the closest, but he was only worth 2 seconds.
Going after Reid and paying up takes balls, the type Essendon has lacked last 20 years.

 

[jdstorm]

If we’re spending assets to get a mid from west coast I’d rather trade up to pick 2 and try and get Dursma or whoever the best rated mid this draft ends up being

 

[Milanista28]

It does. Someone has snagged their domain, but the site is still up on the webserver (promise it's not a virus)

https://119.42.53.217/

Thanks a lot, these so called lonely baddies from my area don't actually want to meet me and now my computer is ****ed.

 

[gillon]

If the draft class is as bad as some say, I would have no qualms offering our two firsts and the Draper comp for Reid. Especially since we have our two NGA boys.

He is a generational talent and is somehow underrated on this board because he gives away a few frees in his second year.

Hard at the contest, great tackler, breakaway speed, goal kicker. These guys are so hard to find. We could pay his salary with Parish, Shiel and Draper’s, none of whom are playing right now.

Unfortunately I don’t think the club has the balls to go for it - on the off chance he would be willing to play for us.

 

[Ambrosia]

It's not just that picks didn't work out it's the way in which picks don't work out.

In Parish, Francis and McGrath you've got significant queries on their abilities to evolve an elite game at AFL level. A small, possession accumulating mid who is average by foot and a third tall defender who is emotionally immature and who can't run at all was how we started our post-SAGA rebuild. That's not hindsight - they're the things Essendon had conditioned itself to overlook when using early picks. 12 months later we're using the number 1 pick on a guy with a view to developing him in his secondary role as a junior.

I do remember there was question marks on settling Francis into a position and I would discounting anyone who has question marks over their tanks BUT Francis was dominant everywhere as a junior. Played as a genuine utility and had the most shots on goal of any player in champs. He was a swing for the fences.

 

[Call Me Cake]

If the draft class is as bad as some say, I would have no qualms offering our two firsts and the Draper comp for Reid. Especially since we have our two NGA boys.

He is a generational talent and is somehow underrated on this board because he gives away a few frees in his second year.

Hard at the contest, great tackler, breakaway speed, goal kicker. These guys are so hard to find. We could pay his salary with Parish, Shiel and Draper’s, none of whom are playing right now.

Unfortunately I don’t think the club has the balls to go for it - on the off chance he would be willing to play for us.

Would give 2 firsts but not 3 tbh. If we had to haggle I'd go 2 firsts and a 2nd at very most and that's pushing it.

Anything more than that no thanks. 3 firsts is club breaking if it goes wrong.

 

[Gabe251]

After the trade information has come out, there's no chance we are getting him. Essendon will not make a deal like that with him.

 

[crackers65]

We whiffed so many first round picks I’m not sure additional picks would have produced a better outcome. We potentially just draft more spuds

Con the fruiter’s son would have muffed it.

 

[ghostdog]

People need to let the Harley Reid dream go. It's not going to happen. It's been made very clear that he doesn't want to go to a struggling club. Not happening. Done.

 

[brutus76]

My son is about to turn 21. If we can win a final before he turns 30 would be happy

 

[windyhill]

I bleed for this club, I also see no way out of this two decade plus quicksand like feeling.

 

[Yoda_]

BrunoV we cant even 'nail' one draftee let alone three. Here are some facts youre welcome to use


Every premiere has 'nailed' one draft with 3 x 100+ AFL game players

Brisbane (2024) nailed 2017 (Rayner, Bailey, Starcevic)
Collingwood (2023) nailed the 2014 draft (DeGoey, Moore, Maynard)
Geelong (2022) nailed the 2016 draft (Stewart, J.Henry, Z.Gutherie)
Demons (2021) nailed the 2014 draft (Petracca, Brayshaw, Neale~Bullen)
Richmond (2017, 2019, 2020) nailed the 2014 drafts (Short, Castagna, Lambert) and the 2009 draft (Martin, Astbury, Grimes)
West Coast (2018) filed the 2010 draft (Gaff, Darling, J.McGovern)

Western Bulldogs are the biggest outliers as they have constantly 'nailed' drafts (2008, J.Roughead, Jones, Picken, 2010, M.Wallis, Libba, Dalhousie, Jason Johanisen, 2012, Stringer, Macrae, Hunter, 2014, McLean,Dale, Daniel, Cordy)

The 2008 Hawks were lauded as being early. They still nailed the 2000 AFL Draft (Williams, Osborne, Campbell). The 2004 draft class (Roughead, Franklin, Lewis, Young) was in the right place at the right time. The 2013-15 Hawks still nailed the 2008 draft (Shiels, Shoenmakers, Breust, Suckling)

We have hardly nailed two high quality players let alone three from any Adrian Dodoro era.

Im bullish we've nailed one of the last two drafts, project that out the 8 years it looks likely taking and 2031 is the year we could hit the mark. With us contending around 2028.

The Tigers from last year should be bullish if they can nail 3 of those top 30 selections they had in 2024.

 

[Yoda_]

Funnily enough, 2016 is probably the closest Dodoro got to 'nailing' a draft. McGrath, Ridley, Draper.

Injuries really has destroyed this football club over a long period

 

[Lore]

BrunoV we cant even 'nail' one draftee let alone three. Here are some facts youre welcome to use


Every premiere has 'nailed' one draft with 3 x 100+ AFL game players

Brisbane (2024) nailed 2017 (Rayner, Bailey, Starcevic)
Collingwood (2023) nailed the 2014 draft (DeGoey, Moore, Maynard)
Geelong (2022) nailed the 2016 draft (Stewart, J.Henry, Z.Gutherie)
Demons (2021) nailed the 2014 draft (Petracca, Brayshaw, Neale~Bullen)
Richmond (2017, 2019, 2020) nailed the 2014 drafts (Short, Castagna, Lambert) and the 2009 draft (Martin, Astbury, Grimes)
West Coast (2018) filed the 2010 draft (Gaff, Darling, J.McGovern)

Western Bulldogs are the biggest outliers as they have constantly 'nailed' drafts (2008, J.Roughead, Jones, Picken, 2010, M.Wallis, Libba, Dalhousie, Jason Johanisen, 2012, Stringer, Macrae, Hunter, 2014, McLean,Dale, Daniel, Cordy)

The 2008 Hawks were lauded as being early. They still nailed the 2000 AFL Draft (Williams, Osborne, Campbell). The 2004 draft class (Roughead, Franklin, Lewis, Young) was in the right place at the right time. The 2013-15 Hawks still nailed the 2008 draft (Shiels, Shoenmakers, Breust, Suckling)

We have hardly nailed two high quality players let alone three from any Adrian Dodoro era.

Im bullish we've nailed one of the last two drafts, project that out the 8 years it looks likely taking and 2031 is the year we could hit the mark. With us contending around 2028.

The Tigers from last year should be bullish if they can nail 3 of those top 30 selections they had in 2024.

Three 100 gamers is a pretty low bar, in the sense that clubs achieve that more often than you think without winning premierships.

Try this page and compare it to premiers, runners up, finals wins about a decade after those draft years;

https://119.42.53.217/draft-seasons/best

Geelong for example:

• 5 200 gamers from the 1999 draft class
• 4 200 gamers from the 2001 draft class
• 6 100 gamers from the 2016 draft class (not old enough to have played 200)

8-10 years later and you have a flag tilt.

You mentioned Hawthorn 2000, 2004, 2008. Check out their 1997 and 2001 hauls as well for a more complete picture. 2005 not awful either.

Essendon draft years to produce min. 3 100 game players for the club:

• 1994 Lloyd Lucas Blumfield Caracella
• 1996 Johnson Johnson Heffernan
• 1997 Solomon Bolton Rioli
• 2002 Watson McPhee Winderlich
• 2003 Stanton Lovett-Murray Dyson
• 2005 Ryder Dempsey Hocking
• 2007 Hooker Bellchambers Myers

the drought

• 2015 Parish Redman McDonald-Tipungwuti

more drought

 

[Yoda_]

Three 100 gamers is a pretty low bar, in the sense that clubs achieve that more often than you think without winning premierships.

Try this page and compare it to premiers, runners up, finals wins about a decade after those draft years;

https://119.42.53.217/draft-seasons/best

Geelong for example:

• 5 200 gamers from the 1999 draft class
• 4 200 gamers from the 2001 draft class
• 6 100 gamers from the 2016 draft class (not old enough to have played 200)

8-10 years later and you have a flag tilt.

You mentioned Hawthorn 2000, 2004, 2008. Check out their 1997 and 2001 hauls as well for a more complete picture. 2005 not awful either.

Essendon draft years to produce min. 3 100 game players for the club:

• 1994 Lloyd Lucas Blumfield Caracella
• 1996 Johnson Johnson Heffernan
• 1997 Solomon Bolton Rioli
• 2002 Watson McPhee Winderlich
• 2003 Stanton Lovett-Murray Dyson
• 2005 Ryder Dempsey Hocking
• 2007 Hooker Bellchambers Myers

the drought

• 2015 Parish Redman McDonald-Tipungwuti

more drought

If we talk about since the year 2000 then every premiership team has nailed 3x150 game players

 

[jdstorm]

It’s such an advantage to get “long term players in the system because it means you don’t have to replace them/anyone for 5-10 years and that allows for talent consolidation

 

[ant555]

If we talk about since the year 2000 then every premiership team has nailed 3x150 game players

I think the standard is more a combination of 100 plus game players and if they are A grade or B grade etc. Also I think getting 200 games from top 10 picks (without circumstances out of a clubs control) is a better marker.
So say McGrath as number 1. He gets a pass because he is not a complete bust but he is gets a B grade because he is not A grade.

 

[doug85]

I think the standard is more a combination of 100 plus game players and if they are A grade or B grade etc. Also I think getting 200 games from top 10 picks (without circumstances out of a clubs control) is a better marker.
So say McGrath as number 1. He gets a pass because he is not a complete bust but he is gets a B grade because he is not A grade.

I was going to post something similar.

We’ve had some ordinary players get to 100 games over the last 20 years. I think the analysis needs to run a little deeper than just getting X amount of players playing 150 games. I.e let’s not have 4 midfielders that can’t kick that all cost decent draft capital.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

So Vozzo last night said on radio that when story came out that Reid had ruled out a few clubs and mentioned that we had raised some doubts anyway, Vozzo said it was all bs and more importantly he rang Reid’s manager to say club had not raised any doubts. Seems to imply we’re still into him. Vozzo himself says we’re open to any deal as long as it’s deemed fair

 

[crackers65]

• 1997 Solomon Bolton Rioli
• 2002 Watson McPhee Winderlich
• 2003 Stanton Lovett-Murray Dyson
• 2005 Ryder Dempsey Hocking
• 2007 Hooker Bellchambers Myers

Apart from Solomon, Watson and Hooker, that is a very ordinary list of picks. Add in the rest of conman the fruiterers sons picks and no wonder we have been and still are shithouse.

 

[southern_crusher]

Most of us will be dead before a successful rebuild is ever completed. There is little light at the end of the tunnel

 

[Doss]

Apart from Solomon, Watson and Hooker, that is a very ordinary list of picks. Add in the rest of conman the fruiterers sons picks and no wonder we have been and still are shithouse.

Stanton played 255 games as a decent player and was pick 13. He had his flaws but he was not a failure.

Hocking was a low pick (a rookie in fact) and had little luck with injury, but when he did stay healthy he was very solid.

Ryder too played good football at times. If he’d not left he probably plays 300 games for us.


We’ve had very shit drafting in large part but we don’t need to overstate it.