Toast The Renaissance of Ollie Wines

[Ah12]

There is no best and worst. He is always good. So far this season he has had far less opportunities that he did tonight.

This week 21 CBAs. Previous two weeks he had 12. Removing a player who was taking inside minutes has given him way more opportunity at what he is good at, which is contested ball clearance stuff.

By his own admission his 2023 was nowhere near his best. He definitely isn’t always good.

 

[Poo Eckert]

I loved some of his tackles. Men at full speed trying to break through and hitting a brick wall.

 

[Powerage]

A kick of less than 40m has to be retained by a teammate to be considered efficient.

A kick of greater than 40m is considered efficient if possession is retained by a teammate OR if its to a 50/50 contest.

And if it is 40m exactly?

 

[JakeNeadeFan]

By his own admission his 2023 was nowhere near his best. He definitely isn’t always good.

He was playing with a bung knee all of 2023.

 

[Powerage]

He was playing with a bung knee all of 2023.

It was more recovery from the knee operation and a very limited preseason. Also played out of position on the wing most of the time.

2022 bung knee and atrial fibrillation.

Clearances, contested possessions, tackling. Handballs out and linking up. That's his value. Geelong game was a perfect example. Even more evidence that Rozee should be spending more time up forward or on a wing. His pace, running power, evasive ability and decision making with ball in hand are his value.

 

[Chrizzt]

This isn't how it works.

The player ratings are derived based on how each act contributes to (expected) score. So if you have many 'safe' disposals which don't result in score then you will not get a good rating.

That is why Matt Crouch is not highly rated. Lots of safe sideways disposals.

Alternatively if you can execute risky plays which result in lots of score you will get a good rating.

That is why Zak Butters is rated off the charts.

Mead didn't 'play within himself', he was just good.

Yeah there are problems with player ratings. It undervalued defenders because what they do cannot be statistically captured.

But it is significantly better than most alternatives.

A big part of why Butters is rated elite by CD and Rozee isn't is because the algorithm places a large focus on the actual disposal and less context as to how it was won and the threat of the play created. I know it does capture for some of this in a crude way, e.g. pressure on the ball winner, score chain involvement - but this is more just trying to roughly quantify a qualitative event.

Rozee's disposals themselves may not be as penetrating or play-making as JHF or Butters, but it's ability to extract and hold position for a few seconds which release teammates to start running to attacking patterns that is extremely valuable. Rozee rarely just scoops the ball off to the closest teammate, but very regularly gets it off to someone in space who is ready to run and carry.

 

[JakeNeadeFan]

A big part of why Butters is rated elite by CD and Rozee isn't is because the algorithm places a large focus on the actual disposal and less context as to how it was won and the threat of the play created. I know it does capture for some of this in a crude way, e.g. pressure on the ball winner, score chain involvement - but this is more just trying to roughly quantify a qualitative event.

Rozee's disposals themselves may not be as penetrating or play-making as JHF or Butters, but it's ability to extract and hold position for a few seconds which release teammates to start running to attacking patterns that is extremely valuable. Rozee rarely just scoops the ball off to the closest teammate, but very regularly gets it off to someone in space who is ready to run and carry.

I feel like I would describe this as something Butters does and not necessarily something Rozee does. Either way, it isn't really a valid criticism. As I said previously, the algorithm would quantify this.

The reason why it doesn't like Rozee (as.much as others) is because his disposals are mostly uncontested and his ball use is mostly just ok for a predominantly uncontested ball player.

What you could say is that his good is really, really good. When he has a good patch in a game he is more often than not the best player in the team. Unfortunately he is inconsistent and that ultimately drags his rating down.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

As I said a few times, I prefer my eyes to an algorithm.

The idea that the CD algorithm is the pure authority of footy is a bit weird to me.

The Champion Data algorithm is pretty good but it doesn't pick up nuances and even obvious things in game.

For example, I don't know how the algorithm rates free kicks. I assume that it is a negative stat and if someone can enlighten me, cool, but there are some free kicks that actually benefit your side, for instance, if the opposition is streaming to goal and you stop it with a free kick so it gives your midfield time to get back and fill in holes. That is quite an invaluable free kick. I noticed Collingwood are very good at that sort of thing. They are such an intelligent, efficient team.

 

[Powerage]

As I said a few times, I prefer my eyes to an algorithm.

The idea that the CD algorithm is the pure authority of footy is a bit weird to me.

The Champion Data algorithm is pretty good but it doesn't pick up nuances and even obvious things in game.

For example, I don't know how the algorithm rates free kicks. I assume that it is a negative stat and if someone can enlighten me, cool, but there are some free kicks that actually benefit your side, for instance, if the opposition is streaming to goal and you stop it with a free kick so it gives your midfield time to get back and fill in holes. That is quite an invaluable free kick. I noticed Collingwood are very good at that sort of thing. They are such an intelligent, efficient team.

Ask Luke Shuey whether free kicks are a negative stat.

 

[Marmozet]

 

[PJ Power]

He played well after QT. Nice to see him flush those two goals from 40m out.

 

[TeeKray]

He played well after QT. Nice to see him flush those two goals from 40m out.

He nailed a nice long set shot against Geelong too. He's the one player the Chad Cornes goal kicking programme seems to have helped.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

For mine, the jury is still out on Wines.

He has played better recently but I don't know how he goes against top line midfielders.

I always prefer class in there.

Wines has a place but at the expense of Rozee, I dunno.

 

[TeeKray]

The premature writing off of Wines was always going to be proven wrong. This is a guy who is still 29 and equalled the record for most Brownlow votes in history only 50 odd games ago. What is evident across his career is that he doesn't play well through injury (funnily enough it appears Rozee is similar in this respect). Now that he's fit again he looks every bit the bull midfielder in his prime that he should be on paper.

 

[VineValerian]

And if it is 40m exactly?

What if it's 24.2 metres?

 

[Peninsula Boy]

The premature writing off of Wines was always going to be proven wrong. This is a guy who is still 29 and equalled the record for most Brownlow votes in history only 50 odd games ago. What is evident across his career is that he doesn't play well through injury (funnily enough it appears Rozee is similar in this respect). Now that he's fit again he looks every bit the bull midfielder in his prime that he should be on paper.

But even in his prime, he didn't get the job done in finals.

You like to have a go at Rozee, Butters and the Hornet for their efforts last year and rightfully so but Wines has a lot more runs on the board in that department.

And while the form of Wines has been good lately, I want to see it up against a great midfield who are fast and can cut you up with class which is traditionally where he struggled.

The two things that have been very good with Wines recently is being more inside than outside and kicking for goals.

So I will hold out until I see him play well consistently against a very good midfield.

 

[Schulzenfest]

But even in his prime, he didn't get the job done in finals.

We don't beat Freo in 2014 without him, and along with Bonner he was the only player who showed up to the PF in 2021.

 

[danman69]

We don't beat Freo in 2014 without him, and along with Bonner he was the only player who showed up to the PF in 2021.

Also kicked that clutch goal against the pies in 2013 to help us get over them at the G, 2017 against Eagles even though we went down he contributed a very handy goal

 

[danman69]

Checked the stat's, he had 28 and kicked 2 vs the Eagles. For people to say Ollie Wines doesn't stand up in finals is just wrong

 

[TeeKray]

But even in his prime, he didn't get the job done in finals.

You like to have a go at Rozee, Butters and the Hornet for their efforts last year and rightfully so but Wines has a lot more runs on the board in that department.

And while the form of Wines has been good lately, I want to see it up against a great midfield who are fast and can cut you up with class which is traditionally where he struggled.

The two things that have been very good with Wines recently is being more inside than outside and kicking for goals.

So I will hold out until I see him play well consistently against a very good midfield.

As others have said, Ollie has played some very good finals and has generally been at least solid in finals.

Also for the record, I have never grouped JHF in with Rozee and Butters re finals.

 

[Fizzler]

The premature writing off of Wines was always going to be proven wrong. This is a guy who is still 29 and equalled the record for most Brownlow votes in history only 50 odd games ago. What is evident across his career is that he doesn't play well through injury (funnily enough it appears Rozee is similar in this respect). Now that he's fit again he looks every bit the bull midfielder in his prime that he should be on paper.

I do find it a little bit strange that people (idiots) were calling him the worst Brownlow winner since Woewodin, or maybe ever. Like you said, he equaled the vote record in a season and that wasn’t by chance, he was extremely consistent all year. It came down to the last game as to whether he or Bont would win it and he definitely deserved his votes in that game, so shouldn’t be easy to argue with that.
Then there was the “fall off” as some would call it, simply refusing to acknowledge the completely different dynamic of our midfield since 2021. Rozee emerged as a superstar and Butters took another massive leap to be one of the best in the comp, and then JHF has come in and cemented himself as an absolute star. Yet people will shit on Ollie cause his output went down while those three became much more of a force in the team… make it make sense.

 

[1954]

It's been a long time since Ollie Wines has been a reliable set shot for goal (if arguably ever), but he has kicked 3 in the last few weeks including those two nice goals from about 40-45 metres out against norf.

Kicking has always been his achilles heel, I can recall when he was running through the left of the screen outer side forward 50 in a game that was also against the roos in Tassie and with no opponent in the same post code where he attempted the kick with the ball off balance and the laces facing towards him due to him spinning it in his hands while he was running, so it was no surprise that it went sideways and out on the full at least 20 metres to the right of the behind post.

Running shots will probably always be 50-50 at absolute best, but he has always been capable of scoring from the quick kick out of a pack type goal, and if he can consistently tonk those very gettable set shots more often than not then he can still be a very valuable player.

 

[Peninsula Boy]

In the deep recesses of my heart, I wish when we reminisced about finals, it wasn't 2014 or before.

Anyway, I'm keen to see how he goes against a pretty good Carlton midfield, the Giants midfield is also very good and then Brisbane's midfield which is also good but they all seem a bit at sea.

Three good opportunities for Wines and the midfield to show what they can do.

 

[Windy Cindy]

We don't beat Freo in 2014 without him, and along with Bonner he was the only player who showed up to the PF in 2021.

After quarter time when the game was done he might have appeared..

Low bar if one finals is suffice.

 

[Schulzenfest]

After quarter time when the game was done he might have appeared..

Low bar if one finals is suffice.

Well if you could read you'd have seen the other final I mentioned in my post and the several other finals mentioned in other posts.