The Run Home in 2025

[dogwatch]

The discussion has been around how many wins would be enough to finish top 4 since we went to 23 games.
Was just pointing out that 14 wins would’ve been enough for Melb to still finish top 4 in 2023. To finish top 4 you only need to better 5th.

OK, I get you. Safe to say that 15 wins would have been enough in both years then. (And 14 would have been enough in 2023 if Melbourne's extra loss wasn't their game against Carlton).

 

[olimauldon]

Getting tired of shitting the bed every time a spot for the top 4 is in our hands

 

[MaxiBont]

A lot of talk about top four but we're likely to be out of the top 8 by the next time we play!!!

Will make the Hawks game massive.

Essendon have the Lions and Freo have the Suns next week. We’ll probably still be in there.

 

[DueWest]

Getting tired of shitting the bed every time a spot for the top 4 is in our hands

Don’t know if that is the right term however unless we beat other sides in the 8 we are not going to make top 4, pretty simple. Great to have honourable losses but you need to turn them into wins eventually.

Hawks game is pretty important in the scheme of things

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

It would help if we had some home games against the top 8 sides, Geelong away, Suns away, GWS away, Collingwood G but our home game, but their home umpires, Brisbane home at Gather round and still play them away. Only Hawks at home.

 

[Golden_6]

It would help if we had some home games against the top 8 sides, Geelong away, Suns away, GWS away, Collingwood G but our home game, but their home umpires, Brisbane home at Gather round and still play them away. Only Hawks at home.

The difficulty of our draw cannot be understated, both in terms of our opponents and the locations we’ve had to play at this year. The good news is that it does flip on its head.

We still have 4th, 6th, 11th, 13th, 16th & 18th to play. 9 of or 12 remaining games are at Marvel and on current form we would only start as the underdogs against the Hawks & Lions for the remainder of our games.

If we’re half serious this year, 9 wins should be the minimum we’re aiming for.

 

[Libbaaaa]

Big month coming up, we take of our own business and once all the byes are finished we will still be in a good spot to challenge for top 4.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

The difficulty of our draw cannot be understated, both in terms of our opponents and the locations we’ve had to play at this year. The good news is that it does flip on its head.

We still have 4th, 6th, 11th, 13th, 16th & 18th to play. 9 of or 12 remaining games are at Marvel and on current form we would only start as the underdogs against the Hawks & Lions for the remainder of our games.

If we’re half serious this year, 9 wins should be the minimum we’re aiming for.

We are favourites in early markets against the hawks.

 

[RWnBluey]

Good run home but so has a few teams around us. Top 4 will be tough but not impossible.

Pies and Cats are absolute locks. GC are 2 games plus percentage clear with an extra game in hand and lions are 2.5 games clear.

IMO these are the key matches we really need to fall our way to have a chance at top 4.

Dogs
Rd 13 vs Hawks (home)
Rd 16 vs Swans (away)
Rd 18 vs Crows (home)
Rd 19 vs Lions (away)

GC key games
Rd 13 vs Cats (away)
Rd 15 vs GWS (away)
Rd 18 vs Pies (home)
Rd 19 vs Crows (away)
Rd 20 vs Lions (home)

Lions key games
Rd 13 vs Crows (away)
Rd 15 vs Cats (away)
Rd 19 vs Dogs (home)
Rd 20 vs GC (away)
Rd 21 vs Pies (away)
Rd 23 vs Freo (away)

 

[hutchy31]

View attachment 2326109

Good run home but so has a few teams around us. Top 4 will be tough but not impossible.

Pies and Cats are absolute locks. GC are 2 games plus percentage clear with an extra game in hand and lions are 2.5 games clear.

IMO these are the key matches we really need to fall our way to have a chance at top 4.

Dogs
Rd 13 vs Hawks (home)
Rd 16 vs Swans (away)
Rd 18 vs Crows (home)
Rd 19 vs Lions (away)

GC key games
Rd 13 vs Cats (away)
Rd 15 vs GWS (away)
Rd 18 vs Pies (home)
Rd 19 vs Crows (away)
Rd 20 vs Lions (home)

Lions key games
Rd 13 vs Crows (away)
Rd 15 vs Cats (away)
Rd 19 vs Dogs (home)
Rd 20 vs GC (away)
Rd 21 vs Pies (away)
Rd 23 vs Freo (away)

If we think our competition for top four places are Pies, Lions, GC and Cats (and I’d agree they are the likely top four from here), then we’re 0-4 against those teams with only one more game to go. If you include the hawks in that group then maybe we get one more win if we can beat them next week.

It’s why honourable losses in these big games aren’t really good enough. You can afford a couple but not every game. You can’t be profligate in front of goal, or allow runs of several goals in a row.

We’re now reliant on almost running the table and hoping the others falter. You need to bank wins early, particularly against the better teams, otherwise you end up in this situation.

 

[ExRoyboy]

If we think our competition for top four places are Pies, Lions, GC and Cats (and I’d agree they are the likely top four from here), then we’re 0-4 against those teams with only one more game to go. If you include the hawks in that group then maybe we get one more win if we can beat them next week.

It’s why honourable losses in these big games aren’t really good enough. You can afford a couple but not every game. You can’t be profligate in front of goal, or allow runs of several goals in a row.

We’re now reliant on almost running the table and hoping the others falter. You need to bank wins early, particularly against the better teams, otherwise you end up in this situation.

While this is true, it also makes clear how unfair the draw has been to us so far. Every one of those games has been played away (and yes I’m counting the Collingwood game as away even though it was our home game, it was played at their home ground).

I’ve done some analysis of the top 9 teams and where have they played each other and what their records have been. For the purpose of the analysis I counted a home game as a game played at the teams home ground or their home away from home such as Darwin for Gold Coast, Canberra for GWS, Ballarat for the Dogs etc, but if a team played as the home team at the other teams home ground like happens with Collingwood against us and also when they played Geelong then that is counted as a game at home for Collingwood.

This is the home and away for each team:
Collingwood 4 home 3 away
Brisbane 3 home 2 away
Geelong 3 home 4 away
Gold Coast 4 home 1 away
Adelaide 2 home 3 away
Hawthorn 4 home 1 away
GWS 3 home 3 away
Fremantle 3 home 3 away
Bulldogs 0 home 6 away

Just looking at that list is there something that stands out???? I mean I understand that the draw is not even but for fxxk’s sake, they could at least try to make it fair when the top teams play each other. Some teams have only had 1 away game against other top 9 teams and we have had 6! Some teams haven’t even played the other top teams 6 times let alone had to play them all away. It’s ridiculous!

And boy have Gold Coast been gifted an easy draw this year. It’s like the AFL have decided enough is enough, they must be given every chance to not only make finals but also finish top 4. This is how you do it. You give them home games against the other top teams and away games against the lower clubs. This way they can get wins against the top teams where they start favourites because the games at home for them but also are favourites in their away games because it’s against the bottom teams.

Contrast that to the Bulldogs who have had to play all 6 of those games away. We probably didn’t start favourite in any of those games. So no wonder we are 1 and 5. No other team in the top 9 has less than 2 home games and most have 3 or 4. That is a draw stacked against the Dogs.

What is interesting is that of the top teams this is the win/loss and net point differential in those games:
Brisbane 4 wins 1 loss +28 points
Collingwood 5 wins 2 loss +78 points
Geelong 5 wins 2 loss +108 points
Fremantle 4 wins 2 loss - 13 points
Gold Coast 3 wins 2 loss - 9 points
GWS 2 wins 3 loss - 40 points
Bulldogs 1 win 5 loss - 25 points
Adelaide 1 win 4 loss - 30 points
Hawthorn 1 win 4 loss - 82 points

So a lot of the teams that have had much easier draws than us and yet either don’t have substantially better records or even if they do have a better win/loss record, their net point differential is not that much better considering both how much easier their draw has been in terms of home games, or given their wins they are not that much ahead of us in point differential. This suggests, if played at a neutral venue or if we played them at our home ground we should have more room for improvement and would be better.

I did this analysis because it was bugging me that we seemed to have played all these teams away and I wanted to firstly confirm this but then also see if any other team had such a disadvantage in the draw. And I was right, no other team has had this disadvantage.

While I understand it does swing around a little in the second half of the season, it still is utterly ridiculous that we are 0 home games at the halfway point against other top teams and every other team has pretty much had at least 3 home games other than the Crows who at least got 2. In a very even competition it’s things like this which make a difference and is why the Gold Coast will probably finish top 4 and we probably won’t. If we had a fairer draw I think we would be top 4. Collingwood for example get to play Geelong and us as the away team but at their home ground. Whereas we have to play Geelong at GMHBA. In those two game’s Collingwood lost to Geelong and barely beat us when we were not at full strength and got a shocking run from the umpires.

Where you play the other top teams matters. It is obviously easier to play them at home rather than away. So to have all those games away is very much a disadvantage. We now get a game against both Hawthorn and Adelaide at our home ground in the second half of the season, we have to win those two games, it’s a must.

Brisbane in Brisbane will be extremely difficult. The other games are all winnable. I don’t expect we will win them all but we should be expecting to and will likely start favourites in all but one game remaining on our schedule. We have had an extremely difficult schedule to start, we have to make the most of the easier draw from now on starting with beating Hawthorn and extracting some revenge for the Elimination Final last year. The Hawks will be fired up after getting a lot of negative media lately. It makes me nervous because for us that is a must win game if we are serious about challenging this season.

Sorry for the long post but I thought it was useful analysis considering the difference in our draw compared to everyone else.

 

[dogwatch]

While this is true, it also makes clear how unfair the draw has been to us so far. Every one of those games has been played away (and yes I’m counting the Collingwood game as away even though it was our home game, it was played at their home ground).

I’ve done some analysis of the top 9 teams and where have they played each other and what their records have been. For the purpose of the analysis I counted a home game as a game played at the teams home ground or their home away from home such as Darwin for Gold Coast, Canberra for GWS, Ballarat for the Dogs etc, but if a team played as the home team at the other teams home ground like happens with Collingwood against us and also when they played Geelong then that is counted as a game at home for Collingwood.

This is the home and away for each team:
Collingwood 4 home 3 away
Brisbane 3 home 2 away
Geelong 3 home 4 away
Gold Coast 4 home 1 away
Adelaide 2 home 3 away
Hawthorn 4 home 1 away
GWS 3 home 3 away
Fremantle 3 home 3 away
Bulldogs 0 home 6 away

Just looking at that list is there something that stands out???? I mean I understand that the draw is not even but for fxxk’s sake, they could at least try to make it fair when the top teams play each other.

And boy have Gold Coast been gifted an easy draw this year. It’s like the AFL have decided enough is enough, they must be given every chance to not only make finals but also finish top 4. This is how you do it. You give them home games against the other top teams and away games against the lower clubs. This way they can get wins against the top teams where they start favourites because the games at home for them but also are favourites in their away games because it’s against the bottom teams.

Contrast that to the Bulldogs who have had to play all 6 of those games away. We probably didn’t start favourite in any of those games. So no wonder we are 1 and 5. No other team in the top 9 has less than 2 home games and most have 3 or 4. That is a draw stacked against the Dogs.

What is interesting is that of the top teams this is the win/loss and net point differential in those games:
Brisbane 4 wins 1 loss +28 points
Collingwood 5 wins 2 loss +78 points
Geelong 5 wins 2 loss +108 points
Fremantle 4 wins 2 loss - 13 points
Gold Coast 3 wins 2 loss - 9 points
GWS 2 wins 3 loss - 40 points
Bulldogs 1 win 5 loss - 25 points
Adelaide 1 win 4 loss - 30 points
Hawthorn 1 win 4 loss - 82 points

So a lot of the teams that have had much easier draws than us and yet either don’t have substantially better records or even if they do have a better win/loss record, their net point differential is not that much better considering both how much easier their draw has been in terms of home games, or given their wins they are not that much ahead of us in point differential. This suggests, if played at a neutral venue or if we played them at our home ground we should have more room for improvement and would be better.

I did this analysis because it was bugging me that we seemed to have played all these teams away and I wanted to firstly confirm this but then also see if any other team had such a disadvantage in the draw. And I was right, no other team has had this disadvantage.

While I understand it does swing around a little in the second half of the season, it still is utterly ridiculous that we are 0 home games at the halfway point against other top teams and every other team has pretty much had at least 3 home games other than the Crows who at least got 2. In a very even competition it’s things like this which make a difference and is why the Gold Coast will probably finish top 4 and we probably won’t. If we had a fairer draw I think we would be top 4. Collingwood for example get to play Geelong and us as the away team but at their home ground. Whereas we have to play Geelong at GMHBA. In those two game’s Collingwood lost to Geelong and barely beat us when we were not at full strength and got a shocking run from the umpires.

Where you play the other top teams matters. It is obviously easier to play them at home rather than away. So to have all those games away is very much a disadvantage. We now get a game against both Hawthorn and Adelaide at our home ground in the second half of the season, we have to win those two games, it’s a must.

Brisbane in Brisbane will be extremely difficult. The other games are all winnable. I don’t expect we will win them all but we should be expecting to and will likely start favourites in all but one game remaining on our schedule. We have had an extremely difficult schedule to start, we have to make the most of the easier draw from now on starting with beating Hawthorn and extracting some revenge for the Elimination Final last year. The Hawks will be fired up after getting a lot of negative media lately. It makes me nervous because for us that is a must win game if we are serious about challenging this season.

Sorry for the long post but I thought it was useful analysis considering the difference in our draw compared to everyone else.

Pretty sure we asked for the Collingwood home game to be played at the MCG as a club centenary event. It doesn't change the disadvantage we have suffered but we need to acknowledge that one was self-inflicted.

The record crowd (for us) of 78,000+ justified it financially. Who knows whether the result would have been any different at Marvel?

That analysis of how many home games each of the top 9 clubs play against each other is pretty stark.

 

[ExRoyboy]

Pretty sure we asked for the Collingwood home game to be played at the MCG as a club centenary event. It doesn't change the disadvantage we have suffered but we need to acknowledge that one was self-inflicted.

The record crowd (for us) of 78,000+ justified it financially. Who knows whether the result would have been any different at Marvel?

That analysis of how many home games each of the top 9 clubs play against each other is pretty stark.

I agree it was self inflicted, but even if you adjust for that, we have 1 home game and 5 away. Again no other team has more than 3 because Geelong who in my analysis has had 4 away, one of those was also a “home” game against Collingwood at the MCG. So we have had a substantially tougher draw than every other top 9 team to date and it’s not even close.

I just don’t understand how the AFL think they are running a fair competition when it’s clearly stacked in favour of certain teams.

I think we have done well to only have a -25 point differential even though we have a 1-5 record.

It would have been great to have pinched a couple of those games we lost though, especially the Geelong, Collingwood and Brisbane games all of which we probably could and should have won. Anyway, hopefully we get to play them again later in the year and make amends.

 

[dogwatch]

I agree it was self inflicted, but even if you adjust for that, we have 1 home game and 5 away. Again no other team has more than 3 because Geelong who in my analysis has had 4 away, one of those was also a “home” game against Collingwood at the MCG. So we have had a substantially tougher draw than every other top 9 team to date and it’s not even close.

I just don’t understand how the AFL think they are running a fair competition when it’s clearly stacked in favour of certain teams.

I think we have done well to only have a -25 point differential even though we have a 1-5 record.

It would have been great to have pinched a couple of those games we lost though, especially the Geelong, Collingwood and Brisbane games all of which we probably could and should have won. Anyway, hopefully we get to play them again later in the year and make amends.

I'm not sure the AFL do think they are running a fair competition. I think they are pretty well aware of the inequity of it. But it's just unfortunate collateral damage from their perspective. It comes a distant second to running a profitable business. And picking up fat executive bonuses for hitting revenue/attendance/marketshare targets.

It helps that there is an acquiescent (or intimidated) media. So nobody is going to call them out on it. And the clubs just have to put up with it, pretty much for the same "don't go making any trouble" reasons.

So it's only when insolent punters like you do some analysis and raise the issues that anyone is likely to realise ...