Analysis The Run Home

[fishardansin]

North to go 7-1 with Swans, Pies, Eagles and Crows still to play?

Dees to go 7-0 with Cats, Crows, Swans, Eagles and Giants?

Seriously doubt it

I believe Swans, Pies and Eagles are all cooked.

 

[Keystone agony]

I just did a very quick predictor.

Even with 13 wins i have us missing out.

I had North beating sydney and Eagles at etihad and canberra respectivily.

Have Melbourne missing out but there are some seriously hard 50/50 predictions.

Sydney vs Collingwood SCG
Melbourne vs Geelong
Eagles vs Melbourne OPTUS
Melbourne vs Sydney MCG

 

[Frazb]

Personally im resigned to the fact we need to win 14 games for the year to make the finals due to low %. Meaning we can only drop 1 game for the rest of the season. In theory that would be against the tigers.

 

[Lore]

From the AFL app “9 things we learned”:

^ edited to add quote tags so it's not ******* HUGE

​

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

From the AFL app “9 things we learned”:

View attachment 524730

He's absolutely right. It was over mid-May and it is unfair to blame Merrett and Daniher for that fact.

 

[Lore]

He's absolutely right. It was over mid-May and it is unfair to blame Merrett and Daniher for that fact.

Ya can't say I particularly like the way the bit about Daniher and Merrett is phrased, obviously not someone who pays much attention to Essendon and must've retroactively looked up the stats and injury lists, or he'd know why Merrett's disposal numbers are down and that Daniher was playing injured all year. But then he did say we shouldn't blame them personally for the team's overall loss of form I guess saying not to blame someone after you've blamed them is a reasonable way to conclude a comment.

Overall pretty spot on though.

 

[Stopher]

The aim should be 11 wins at a minimum from here. That means winning the games we should (Gold Coast, Freo, St Kilda), as well as taking at least one decent scalp in Hawthorn/Sydney. I'm not expecting to win either of the final two games against Richmond or Port (away) games, given our season will be over and they have everything to play for, on top of both out-performing Essendon this season anyway.

11-11 after a horror month from rounds 5-8 would be a respectable recovery. A couple of winnable games before a tough finish to the season should be an ideal block of games to see about a few players. FWIW I include Long in that. I've been a bit 'meh' about him, but I thought he did ok in tough circumstances. I'll always have more time for a bloke making positive errors like he did, as opposed to hiding to avoid any scrutiny at all.

 

[Shanghaistu]

The aim should be 11 wins at a minimum from here. That means winning the games we should (Gold Coast, Freo, St Kilda), as well as taking at least one decent scalp in Hawthorn/Sydney. I'm not expecting to win either of the final two games against Richmond or Port (away) games, given our season will be over and they have everything to play for, on top of both out-performing Essendon this season anyway.

11-11 after a horror month from rounds 5-8 would be a respectable recovery. A couple of winnable games before a tough finish to the season should be an ideal block of games to see about a few players. FWIW I include Long in that. I've been a bit 'meh' about him, but I thought he did ok in tough circumstances. I'll always have more time for a bloke making positive errors like he did, as opposed to hiding to avoid any scrutiny at all.

I agree with everything, especially beating the Hawks and taking revenge on the Swans to salvage something from the season. And seeing if we can get the percentage north of 100 would be good too (maybe helped my massive wins against Hawks and Swans?)

 

[ant555]

The aim should be 11 wins at a minimum from here. That means winning the games we should (Gold Coast, Freo, St Kilda), as well as taking at least one decent scalp in Hawthorn/Sydney. I'm not expecting to win either of the final two games against Richmond or Port (away) games, given our season will be over and they have everything to play for, on top of both out-performing Essendon this season anyway.

11-11 after a horror month from rounds 5-8 would be a respectable recovery. A couple of winnable games before a tough finish to the season should be an ideal block of games to see about a few players. FWIW I include Long in that. I've been a bit 'meh' about him, but I thought he did ok in tough circumstances. I'll always have more time for a bloke making positive errors like he did, as opposed to hiding to avoid any scrutiny at all.

Absolutely. Aim to keep the current form up and if we just miss then so be it. We can not do anything about the early form but now even despite yesterdays loss our form is good. We can still keep feeding a few young blokes in on the fringe and keep the form going.

 

[Old Stuckup]

IMO we are still a chance. I can see the Demons, Giants and Kangaroos all ending up on less the 12 wins. Finals shouldn’t be the expectation right now but it’s certainly plausible.

 

[Runk]

IMO we are still a chance. I can see the Demons, Giants and Kangaroos all ending up on less the 12 wins. Finals shouldn’t be the expectation right now but it’s certainly plausible.

Good on you bloke. Keep that outlook positive!!

 

[maskmcgee]

It's entirely plausible that 9th finishes with 14 wins and misses the finals.

If we do make it, we can really only do it one way. Winning our 3 'certainties' against Gold Coast, Freo and St. Kilda by an aggregate of around 400 points, which would only just get us into the top 8 for percentage. We lose to Sydney and Richmond by small margins, and beat Hawthorn and Port. That gives us 12 wins, and we hope North, GWS and Melbourne all blow it.

 

[Shanghaistu]

I agree with everything, especially beating the Hawks and taking revenge on the Swans to salvage something from the season. And seeing if we can get the percentage north of 100 would be good too (maybe helped my massive wins against Hawks and Swans?)

And add to that, would be great to see a positive free kick differential in at least one game before the end of 2018

 

[Runk]

It's entirely plausible that 9th finishes with 14 wins and misses the finals.

If we do make it, we can really only do it one way. Winning our 3 'certainties' against Gold Coast, Freo and St. Kilda by an aggregate of around 400 points, which would only just get us into the top 8 for percentage. We lose to Sydney and Richmond by small margins, and beat Hawthorn and Port. That gives us 12 wins, and we hope North, GWS and Melbourne all blow it.

Unsure if you meant by all that that it is now 'completely implausible.'

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

What a waste of season i expect nothing less from Essendon.

Time to play the kids

 

[Shanghaistu]

It's entirely plausible that 9th finishes with 14 wins and misses the finals.

If we do make it, we can really only do it one way. Winning our 3 'certainties' against Gold Coast, Freo and St. Kilda by an aggregate of around 400 points, which would only just get us into the top 8 for percentage. We lose to Sydney and Richmond by small margins, and beat Hawthorn and Port. That gives us 12 wins, and we hope North, GWS and Melbourne all blow it.

I hope all the teams above us blow it, especially Hawthorn. Maybe we can ‘help’ by accumulating some of the required 400 points via a demolition of them in round 20?

 

[sameolds33]

What a waste of season i expect nothing less from Essendon.

Time to play the kids

Managing your expectations is the key to happiness!

Have higher expectations if you want improvement, and lower expectations if you want contentment.

If you want to get bigger and encourage others to get bigger, cultivate high expectations even if it means being disappointed or sounding uncompassionate, and if you want to feel big enough already and satisfied with what others deliver, lower your expectations.

It’s all about managing the “aspirational gap,” the gap between what is and what could be, what you have and what you expect. It’s all about expectation management.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/au/...ret-happiness-and-compassion-low-expectations

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Not good enough. Plain and simple.

 

[Keystone agony]

Simply can not make finals unless we go 7 straight. Which is no chance.

 

[JayJ20]

Not good enough. Plain and simple.

We're currently good enough. Not good enough in the first 8 rounds. Hopefully next year, we don't wait until the season is gone to start winning.

 

[Mercurial89]

We have developed a much better and more consistent team this year.
Missing finals sucks but there is a lot to like about the way the team is playing. We have probably put together one of the longest streaks of 3 quarters plus of consistent footy we have in years.
We still have a devastating attack when its on and we can defend now.
There is also a bit more of a hardness around the ball. The massive momentum swings where we are "on" have smoothed out with the times where we arent. We are scrapping when we have to.
We know we have some really solid players in Redman, francis, ridley, daniher, zaharakis, parish and begley who arent in the team.
Another year of midfield development into our number 1 pick who the last two weeks has been able to use that run we want to see.
The 3 recruits are best 22 and probably in our top 12 players. Not many times do you do that in one off season.
Langford is showing he can do the number 4 proud.
Saad and Mckenna are weapons, most teams have 1, we have two.
Much more bullish about the team than i was last year even though we made finals.
This is in a year when Hurls hasnt been himself and we have lacked our key forward since round 1 (im not including that shell of a player we had for 8 rounds, thats not Joe).

In previous years ive had a feeling when we toppled top 8 sides that we caught them at the right time, jumped them and then scrapped a win. This year on a number of occasions we matched top 8 football. Even the loss against pies we were on for 3 quarters with a team that could go real far this year and is super strong in an area we are supposedly weak (mid).

If possible zoning or congestion changes come in im very interested in what this team can do with them as open space suits us.

Win the games we should and put up a fight against Richmond and ill be happy with how we have built this year. Not a waste at all.

 

[Frazb]

How do the draft picks work for the bottom 8?

Personally hope we play good footy from here on in with the young players but ultimately lose because of their inexperience rather than bad play.

 

[LB#16]

I would like to see 12 wins as I think that's a good result after the torrid season we have seen. Also makes the players regret some early losses. Good to ensure it doesn't happen next year.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

I would like to see 12 wins as I think that's a good result after the torrid season we have seen. Also makes the players regret some early losses. Good to ensure it doesn't happen next year.

Any players that don't want to do the hardwork to get this club back up the ladder can leave threaten thier list spot

 

[Mootsy]

in many ways we've already won.